Profitability analysis in UK organizations: An exploratory study

Recent research into management accounting practices suggests that companies are now placing considerable emphasis on profitability analysis and consider it to be one of the most important management accounting practices. There is however little recent empirical research relating to the content and role of profitability analysis in companies. This paper will address this omission and report the findings derived from a survey of UK companies relating to information that is contained in profitability reporting, generated for managing the existing mix of a firm's activities. In particular, it focuses on the nature, content and role of profitability analysis carrying out some exploratory analysis and testing various propositions to explain the divergence in observed practices.A distinctive feature of the research is that, unlike some previous research, rather than focusing on the information that is accumulated within the costing system it focuses primarily on the information that is extracted from it for different purposes. Not surprisingly we find that different information is extracted for profitability analysis than for pricing purposes. The research findings also indicate that firms use a hierarchy of profit measures within the periodic profitability analysis statements and that profitability analysis is used mainly for attention-directing purposes for signalling the need for more detailed studies. For profitability analysis, the findings suggest that, in terms of what is considered the most important attention-directing measure, the use of some form of full costs based on arbitrary allocations is not as widespread as that suggested by previous studies. Evidence is also presented to suggest that the level of cost system complexity influences the observed practices.     

Marketers expressing the future: Scenario planning for marketing action

Thomas Friedman exhorts us to imagine the future [1] - we urge marketers to invent the future, to learn the future faster, and to deliver the future earlier. Marketers are asked to develop scenarios about emerging technologies such as broadband wireless but more often than not have no education or training in scenario planning. Also marketers are often stuck in a strategic planning mindset based on successful replication of past marketing strategies. Strategic management and marketing learning has ventured into futures and foresight methodologies, but with strong focus on conventional macroscopic high-level scenario planning methods.This paper positions scenario planning as a method to express the future vision, both tacit and explicit, of business, products and services in a clear succinct story form, to underpin all elements of a marketing strategy (goals, position and execution). The scenario planning for marketing action (SPMA) model is introduced and discussed incorporating eight principles: moderation and time compression; storytelling led new product and service development; customer orientation; iterative dynamic scenarios; complexity science to foster non-linear thinking; risk weighted scenarios; participant hosted scenario workshops; springboard consolidation.The SPMA method was proven and evolved within postgraduate Executive education courses in Sydney and Bangkok from 2003 to 2007. This approach is fundamental for marketers to gain competences in “learning the future faster”, thus possessing capabilities to imagine and invent the future and deliver the future earlier.     

The success of business failure prediction models: An international survey

This paper surveys and discusses numerous studies, both published and unpublished, that have attempted to construct and test business failure models outside the United States. Failure risk models are one of the few types of financial models that have been applied pervasively on an international level. A considerable flow of literature has gone relatively unnoticed due to the fact that the reference source is not well known or the source material is not available in English. It is the purpose of this paper to document these efforts and thereby increase the discourse and knowledge about such studies and others not surveyed here. This survey complements the other company related studies found in this Special Issue.     

Harmful events and misconducts in financial organizations: Human biases and root causes

We conduct a large scope field investigation of 19 major incidents in 19 large European insurance and banking institutions, based on 116 post-event interviews with managers and top executives over a two-year period. We demonstrate the power of the Root Cause Analysis (RCA) method for detecting human biases documented by the behavioral finance, the organizational behavior and occupational psychology literatures. These biases constitute key operational risk factors these organizations. We find that organizational biases (such as a breach of psychological contract) take center stage as root causes of incidents in these organizations. We also find that banks are more exposed to emotional biases (fear and greed) and insurance companies more subjected to cognitive conservatism as root cause biases. This research has direct implications regarding how banks and insurance companies may cope with regulations that put a greater emphasis on measuring and controlling operational risk and specifically misconduct risk.     

Scenario generation: limitations and developments in cross-impact analysis

Informed subjective judgement has a place in decision making, and cross-impact analysis may be useful in providing this information. The authors focus on the art of scenario generation, reviewing a number of existing procedures and noting their limitations. The information needs of decision makers are discussed and three alternative approaches are outlined and compared in terms of their relative efficiency.     

An analysis of the causes of recent banking crises

The incidence of systemic banking crises has risen over the past twenty years and the costs have been high. Although each country's experience has country-specific factors, several common elements appear in most crisis countries: (1) volatility in the macro economy; (2) the inheritance of structural weaknesses in the economy and financial system; (3) hazardous banking practices; (4) hazardous incentive structures and moral hazard within the financial system; (5) ineffective regulation; (6) weak monitoring and supervision by official agencies; (7) the absence of effective market discipline on banks, and (8) structurally unsound corporate governance mechanisms within banks and their borrowing customers. Causes of such crises are complex and a myopic focus on single factors (e. g. instability in the macro economy, weak regulation, etc.) misses the essential feature of interrelated and multidimensional causal factors. Although macro-instability has been a common feature, and may often have been the proximate cause, banking crises usually emerge because instability in the economy reveals existing weaknesses within the banking system.     

Foresight and long-term policy-making: An analysis of anticipatory boundary work in policy organizations in The Netherlands

Public policy is founded on analysis and knowledge. However, knowledge – and especially knowledge about the future – is not a self-evident element of public policy-making. This paper conceptualizes the problematic relationship between anticipatory policy-making and anticipatory knowledge. Our study identifies possible key-variables in the linkage between foresight and policy, such as positioning, timing interfaces, professional background, instrument usage, procedures and leadership. We describe the organization and flow of policy and futures knowledge. Furthermore, we generalize these findings toward a theory concluding how ‘goodness of fit’ between knowledge about the future and policy can be achieved, so that the likelihood of informed future-oriented policies might increase.     

The role of management control systems in planned organizational change: An analysis of two organizations

In the management control literature there is growing interest in the role of management control systems (MCS) in planned organizational change. The existing literature is concerned with either rational, technical change principles or more social and political interpretations of MCS facilitated change. This paper aims to extend this literature by combining technical approaches to MCS facilitated change with a behavioral approach in the study of two similar organizations. Moreover, the paper employs a holistic approach to change to develop a comprehensive understanding of the role of MCS in planned organizational change. A framework by Huy [Huy, Q. N. (2001). Time, temporal capacity, and planned change. Academy of Management Review 26(4), 601–623] is used to provide an integrative approach that focuses on both rational, systematic practices and the behavioral processes involved in their implementation. This is achieved by identifying four idealized intervention types: commanding, engineering, teaching and socializing. Understanding the application of these four intervention types requires analysis of the way they interact through time.     

我国财政风险形成原因的实证研究

本文对影响财政风险5个定性方面的原因进行了量化,构建了一组分析模型,采用1980年～2008年的数据,运用主成份回归分析方法对模型进行了精炼和实证检验。研究认为,我国的经济增长速度、货币供应量与政府收入赤字率正相关。地方经济竞赛对财政风险的影响非常复杂,一方面会导致地方以债务积累为代价实现经济增长,另一方面在一定程度上有利于控制赤字率的过快上升。财税体制不合理是财政风险形成的重要原因。     

Too big to fail: Some empirical evidence on the causes and consequences of public banking interventions in the UK

During the 2007–09 financial crisis, the banking sector received an extraordinary level of public support. In this empirical paper, we examine the determinants of a number of public sector interventions: government funding or central bank liquidity insurance schemes, public capital injections, and nationalizations. We use bank-level data spanning all British and foreign banks operating within the United Kingdom. We use multinomial logit regression techniques and find that a bank's size, relative to the size of the entire banking system, typically has a large positive and non-linear effect on the probability of public sector intervention for a bank. We also use instrumental variable techniques to show that British interventions helped; there is fragile evidence that the wholesale (non-core) funding of an affected institution increased significantly following capital injection or nationalization.     

净额支付清算系统中银行危机的传染过程与应对策略

随着各国商业银行通过银行间支付清算系统交易额的迅速增加,银行危机通过支付清算系统进行传染越来越受到世界各国政府的重视。本文研究了少数甚至是单个银行发生危机通过净额结算支付清算系统扩散而引起系统危机的过程和条件,分析了系统所能吸收的由银行危机而导致的最大违约资金量。最后,在本文分析的基础上,提出了我国政府为及时、有效地控制银行危机的传染过程应采取的对策和措施。     

Transformational change and the vacuum of performance measurement: How a story of success became a failure

Some local government organisations stand out in terms of their capability to adopt and use management accounting innovations and become a model for those struggling with issues such as performance measurement (PM). But what happens to the innovations if the organisation is forced into transformational change? This longitudinal case study is based on the theory that the use and impact of PM is influenced by (a) its contractibility and (b) how the performance management systems in place are configured and used. One conclusion is that transformational change can result in a vacuum of PM, even with a high degree of contractibility.     

Scenario probability scaling: an eigenvector analysis of elicited scenario odds ratios

If odds ratios elicited from experts (eg via Delphi) are translated into scenario probabilities by nonsymmetric matrix eigenvector analysis, then such problems as inconsistency between individuals' responses can be conveniently analysed, and revised, more consistent responses can be sought.     

Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions

We conduct an empirical investigation of the impact of Central Bank intervention on the process of price formation in foreign exchange markets. The main contributions of this paper are (i) in considering the effects of official interventions on multiple dimensions of such a process beyond the first and second moment of currency returns and (ii) in exploiting insights from the analysis of market liquidity in proximity of these trades to explain their effectiveness. For that purpose, we employ a unique dataset of tick-by-tick indicative quotes and intraday (informative) sterilized spot interventions and (uninformative) customer transactions executed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on the Swiss Franc/U.S. Dollar exchange rate (CHFUSD) between 1996 and 1998. Using several empirical strategies (some of which are novel to the exchange rate literature), we find that the effectiveness of these trades is crucially related to their perceived information content, rather than to imperfect substitutability or inventory considerations. Indeed, regardless of their size, only SNB interventions (especially when unexpected or leaning against the wind) have significant and persistent effects on daily CHFUSD returns, although they often fail to smooth currency fluctuations. Nonetheless, only SNB interventions, regardless of their effectiveness, induce significant misinformation and heterogeneity of beliefs among market participants and deteriorate market liquidity. These externalities always translate into higher, economically significant transaction costs borne by investors.     

Sustainability adrift: An evaluation of the credibility of sustainability information disclosed by public organizations

This article aims to evaluate the credibility of information disclosed by public organizations in terms of sustainable development. It focuses on an under-studied aspect in the sustainability reporting literature—namely, the factors that may affect the credibility of disclosure practices. The study is based on a qualitative analysis of the sustainable development content of annual management reports disclosed by 113 ministries and public bodies in the province of Quebec, Canada. The findings shed more light on the main factors that affect the credibility of the information disclosed therein, particularly in terms of lack of transparency and flawed monitoring mechanisms.     

The rules of standard‐setting organizations: an empirical analysis

This article empirically explores standard‐setting organizations' policy choices. Consistent with our earlier theoretical work, we find (i) a negative relationship between the extent to which an SSO is oriented to technology sponsors and the concession level required of sponsors and (ii) a positive correlation between the sponsor friendliness of the selected SSO and the quality of the standard. We also develop and test two extensions of the earlier model: the presence of provisions mandating royalty‐free licensing is negatively associated with disclosure requirements, and the relationship between concessions and user friendliness is weaker when there is only a limited number of SSOs.     

Corporate failure in the UK: An examination of corporate governance reforms

In the context of major corporate collapses, executive compensation, board network, gender diversity and oversight committees have all received attention in a package of corporate governance (CG) reforms that were recently issued in the UK. This paper examines whether these reforms of CG can influence the likelihood of corporate failure (CF). It also investigates how efficient they are when CF approaches. After controlling for variables that prior research shows to be related to CF, we find that CF is less likely when a firm is characterized by a lower executive compensation, larger size of the board's social network, and smaller degree of the board's managerial network. However, board gender diversity and independence of oversight committees do not reduce the likelihood of CF. We further observe that the explanatory power of these CG variables is significant but relatively decreased as the time to CF closes. This implies that despite the capability of these variables to render early warning alerts of CF, they are less helpful (efficient) as failure becomes closer. Our results remain robust after a battery of sensitivity tests and addressing potential endogeneity problems. Collectively, the evidence provided by our paper should be of interest to the UK's regulatory bodies (Financial Reporting Council) and legislators (the UK's Parliament), since it shows the practical implications of the UK's CG Code and other governance regulations on reducing future corporate collapses. This paper provides timely evidence-based insights to major recent structural reforms aiming at proposing remedies to CG problems in the UK.