客户体验呼唤优化升级

1个数据和100万个数据的力量孰大孰小?这里可以做一个分析:假如我们彻底湮没在100万个数据的海洋里,无法辨别数据的真伪和价值,其意义何从谈起?相反,如果那个唯一的数据能帮助我们快速搜索到目标对象,或者充分支持我们的判断,那么它的地位则不言自明.     

Ecological modernization and its discontents: The American environmental movement's resistance to an innovation-driven future

Ecological modernization provides a theoretical framework for situating the emergence of new technology-intensive modes of environmental reform such as industrial ecology, environmentally conscious manufacturing, and ecological design. These forms of professional engineering practice all seek to exploit opportunities for aggressive innovation to achieve rigorous improvements in the environmental performance of industrial processes and consumer goods. Despite the potential of this approach, the American environmental movement has not offered much active support. This reticence is attributable to the historical development of organized environmentalism in the United States and its general tendency to privilege the interests of landscape and wildlife protection over concerns about public health and industrial pollution. There also exists within major segments of the country's environmental movement an inertia that stems from an institutionalized preference for litigation and lobbying and a wariness about technologically intensive policy programs. Novel initiatives launched by Environmental Defense and the Natural Resources Defense Council over the past decade however provide some instructive lessons for coming to terms with a more innovation-driven future.     

预判未来经济取决于你身边的信号

睁开双眼看世界,才会看清意料之外的事 记者:2007年,您预判了即将发生的全球金融危机,2016年美国总统大选,您又预判并不被看好的特朗普会最终当选.我们知道,您和许多经济学家不同,从不使用数学模型分析,但您却正确地预判了"灰犀牛"、"黑天鹅"等概率性危机.请问您做出这些与众不同的独到判断的依据是什么?     

美债:历史、现实与前景

2011年注定是风雨变幻的一年,而美债危机所掀起的海啸无疑是重大事件。美债发展到今天似乎成了一种"恶",是一种不安定因素。然而,历史上的美债是被美国政治家掌控的金融战略,不断演绎着会借债、敢借债、兴于国债的历史,乃至形成美国特有的生存与发展的金融方式,请看本栏目文章《追溯美国国     

一个产业与一座城市的未来

大连试图通过发展软件产业和信息服务业,走一条低消耗、无污染、高产出、高科技密度、高信息密度的产业道路。如果大连能够在软件产业方面走出一条道路,那么对中国走新型工业化道路,无疑是提供了一个借鉴。大连想做一个探索。     

Working for an alternative future in US-Soviet relations

The founders of the Supplemental Ways of Improving International Stability (SWIIS) programme of the International Federation of Automatic Control believed that system analysts and engineers could make useful inputs to the work of conflict resolution. This article describes initiatives deriving from this programme and considers a system approach to reducing the continuing stand-off between the USSR and the USA. The goals to be attained and barriers to their attainment in this process are outlined.     

Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market

An intertemporal general equilibrium model relates financial asset returns to movements in aggregate output. The model is a standard neoclassical growth model with serial correlation in aggregate output. Changes in aggregate output lead to attempts by agents to smooth consumption, which affects the required rate of return on financial assets. Since aggregate output is serially correlated and hence predictable, the theory suggests that stock returns can be predicted based on rational forecasts of output. The empirical results confirm that stock returns are a predictable function of aggregate output and also support the accompanying implications of the model.     

Gaming the future of an urban network

Scenario and gaming techniques have a number of complementary characteristics. In this article, the design and evaluation of a gaming-scenario experiment for the exploration of development planning in an urban network in the Netherlands is presented. Two gaming sessions were held using two long-term scenarios (2030) as varying contexts. The combined gaming-scenario approach made it possible to evaluate the impact of external future developments and trends on the administrative and spatial development. Evaluation results of the gaming experiment indicate that the gaming-scenario approach generated new and critical insights on development planning and the future of the urban network. Through the game, the principal, the game leaders but most of all the stakeholder-participants experienced and realized that the management of development planning in urban networks is a very difficult task and is full of pitfalls.     

American anticipations : Is the future what it used to be? American views, 1945–1985

This article is the last in the present series. It ends most appropriately by noting the many big bangs that have marked the rapid development of futures literature in the last 40 years. They have given new phrases to the English language—Think-tank, Future Shock, Thermonuclear Warfare — which have sent special messages to our times. In their different ways they say that the future is not what it used to be. As the rate of change accelerates, the problems and the difficulties seem to go on increasing. As this article seeks to show, the beginning of the answers starts from the effort to arrive at a clear picture of the most probable future.     

美国金融危机:一个均衡分析

供求均衡是一国乃至世界经济稳定发展的基本命题。过度消费使得美国经济失衡。但是在经济全球化背景下,美元的国际货币地位维系着美国经济社会的过度消费,并进一步强化美国的过度消费。由于美元滥发及受到世界经济变化的影响,强势美元逐渐走弱,导致本已失衡的美国经济转化为次贷危机,进而演变为金融危机。     

Monitoring the future. Building an early warning system for the Dutch Ministry of Justice

To determine the sustainability of the policy, an Early Warning System (EWS) has been developed for the Dutch Ministry of Justice. An EWS is used to monitor various developments and to place them within the perspective of future scenarios. Without actually predicting the future, this makes it possible to determine which scenario is the most relevant at any given moment, allowing the department to adapt its policies. Regular modifications to the EWS make it possible to monitor in the direction of which scenario society appears to be moving. This creates a path to the future with which the sustainability of (new) policies can be tested periodically.     

Integrated reporting: background,measurement issues,approaches and an agenda for future research

We discuss the background to integrated reporting, a new reporting framework focused on firms’ future value creation narrative. We consider why integrated reporting is an area of interest for the accounting profession, accountants, investors, regulators and managers. We provide an overview of the integrated reporting literature, discuss measurement and research design issues to take into account when designing studies on integrated reporting and identify approaches and set an agenda for future research.     

Predicting UK Takeover Targets: Some Methodological Issues and an Empirical Study

This paper examines the methodological issues of using accounting ratios to predict takeover targets. Certain improvements are suggested, notably the use of industry-relative ratios and the deterimination of an ex ante cut off point which maximizes returns. The empirical study suggests that industry-relative ratios are not an improvement upon industry-specific models and that, although the models perform better than chance, they do not perform sufficiently well as to earn excess returns. Unfortunately, the results are not sufficiently sensitive as to be significantly affected by the choice of cut off point.