Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach

Current accounts have diverged substantially among euro area countries since the creation of the euro. This divergence has raised concerns about the sustainability of some member countries’ external indebtedness. This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account to analyze the fluctuations in current account balances experienced by euro area countries over the last three decades and to disentangle its determinants. We find that the model is not rejected for six of the ten euro area countries examined (Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain), although it tends to underestimate their current account volatility. For these countries, we derive the expectations about future income and relative prices, which, according to the model, underlie their current account balances. Expectations about future growth increased in all Southern European countries at the creation of the euro, but they diverged considerably by 2005. While in Portugal these expectations were below its historical mean by then, in Spain they were at an historical high.     

Post-industrial convergence in time allocation

Developed societies, it is argued, are in a number of respects, and for very clear reasons, becoming more similar to each other in their patterns of daily life. This article shows, using time budget evidence, a rather striking multinational convergence in the broad balance between leisure and work. But first it introduces a model of development, one specifically connected with the historical evolution of time use, a model that takes labour (and consumption) time as its central variables, but which owes more to Thorstein Veblen than to Karl Marx.     

Social innovation : Change in the mode of provision of services

This paper discusses a particular sort of social innovation: the development of new modes of provision of services for households. It argues that technical and organisational change in the process of service delivery may crucially determine both the sectoral structure of developed economies, and their patterns of time use. The model of service innovation described here provides historical insights, and an analytical framework for considering the likely impact of telematics technologies on future industrial employment patterns.     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.     

The injustice of inequality

In many countries, the operation of legal, political and regulatory institutions is subverted by the wealthy and the politically powerful for their own benefit. This subversion takes the form of corruption, intimidation, and other forms of influence. We present a model of such institutional subversion—focusing specifically on courts—and of the effects of inequality in economic and political resources on the magnitude of subversion. We then use the model to analyze the consequences of institutional subversion for the law and order environment in the country, as well as for capital accumulation and growth. We illustrate the model with historical evidence from Gilded Age United States and the transition economies of the 1990s. We also present some cross-country evidence consistent with the basic prediction of the model.     

基于参保时段配比的社会养老保险历史债务估算方法——以2005年基本养老保险制度为基础

社会养老保险的历史债务及其估算一直是学界关注的一个热点问题。本文提出历史债务估算的一种新方法——以“中人”基本养老金为基础、按照其在旧制度的工作年限与新制度下的缴费年限之比确定“中人”历史债务,并以2005年修改的基本养老保险制度为基础建立估算模型。这一方法适合于任一统筹地区。文章还根据某地的实际数据,对该地区的历史债务进行估算。     

What's your real cost of capital?

In valuing any investment project or corporate acquisition, executives must decide what discount rate to use in their estimates of future cash flows. The traditional approach is to apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which has remained fundamentally unchanged for 40 years. But the formula--in particular, its beta element--has long been a source of frustration. In fact, corporate executives and investment bankers routinely fudge their CAPM estimates, say the authors, because experience and intuition tell them the model produces inappropriate discount rates. CAPM has three main problems: First, beta is a measure of both a stock's correlation and its volatility; second, beta is based on historical data; and third, CAPM rates don't take into account the term of the investment. These factors together result in discount rates that defy common sense. As an alternative to CAPM and its beta element, the authors developed a forward-looking approach to calculating a company's cost of capital, the market-derived capital pricing model (MCPM). It does not incorporate any measure of historical stock-to-market correlation, relying instead on estimates of future volatility derived from the options market. This is helpful since investor expectations from the options market are built into a company's current stock price. Using GE as an example, the authors give step-by-step instructions for how to calculate discount rates with MCPM. They also offer evidence from a range of industries to show that MCPM's discount rates are more realistic--especially from the corporate investor's perspective--than are CAPM's.     

Historical market-to-book in a partial adjustment model of leverage

Historical market-to-book has been shown to explain current leverage. Prior studies attribute the evidence to market timing. This study shows that with the presence of time-varying targets and adjustment costs, historical market-to-book has a significant impact on leverage even when firms do not time the market. The historical values of alternative market timing proxies, such as insider sales and the market sentiment index, are shown to have no effects on leverage while the historical values of alternative growth-option proxies do have effects. Overall, the evidence is largely consistent with a partial adjustment model of leverage.     

Demographic Issues in Longevity Risk Analysis

Fundamental to the modeling of longevity risk is the specification of the assumptions used in demographic forecasting models that are designed to project past experience into future years, with or without modifications based on expert opinion about influential factors not represented in the historical data. Stochastic forecasts are required to explicitly quantify the uncertainty of forecasted cohort survival functions, including uncertainty due to process variance, parameter errors, and model misspecification errors. Current applications typically ignore the latter two sources although the potential impact of model misspecification errors is substantial. Such errors arise from a lack of understanding of the nature and causes of historical changes in longevity and the implications of these factors for the future. This article reviews the literature on the nature and causes of historical changes in longevity and recent efforts at deterministic and stochastic forecasting based on these data. The review reveals that plausible alternative sets of forecasting assumptions have been derived from the same sets of historical data, implying that further methodological development will be needed to integrate the various assumptions into a single coherent forecasting model. Illustrative calculations based on existing forecasts indicate that the ranges of uncertainty for older cohorts' survival functions will be at a manageable level. Uncertainty ranges for younger cohorts will be larger and the need for greater precision will likely motivate further model development.     

University Accounting Programs and Professional Accountancy Training: Can UK Pragmatism Inform the Australian Debate?

Professional accountancy training and academic accounting programs in the United Kingdom (UK) have remained resolutely separate, despite attempts at partial integration through a system of accreditation and exemptions. This is in contrast with the situation in some other countries, notably the United States (US) and until recently Australia. This paper identifies some historical reasons for their having developed in this way and for their continuing distinctiveness. We conclude that the approach is both workable and adaptable, albeit idiosyncratic, with changes occurring over time that reflect the shifting sands of market and political pressures. With six recognised accounting bodies in the UK, this ability to respond to change is important and we surmise that it would take some fundamental shift in circumstance, such as a move towards European standardisation, for a different model to prevail in the UK.     

Testing Greeks and price changes in the S&P 500 options and futures contract: A regression analysis

We use a regression model to test observed price changes with Greeks as regressors. Greeks are computed using implied volatility, price-change implied volatility and historical volatility. We find sufficient evidence to reject model Greeks as unbiased responses to underlying price as well as sufficient evidence that the American version of binomial model results in biased estimates of price changes. We use options on the S&P 500 futures contracts and their underlying. We also evaluate the frequency of “wrong signs.” Call prices and their underlying move in the opposite direction almost 10 percent of the time.     

Forecasting disability: application of a frailty model

Random changes in individual frailty occur due to the stochastic processes of physical deterioration or environmental influences. This paper implements a stochastic ageing model using maximum likelihood methods and calibrates the model to more than 30 years of historical Australian mortality data in order to examine cohort and gender differences in health-state distributions among older adults. We find that frailty levels have declined over time for both male and female cohorts. Nonetheless, patterns of frailty are different between genders. Older females experience a faster pace of health deterioration than their male counterparts causing them to move quicker into worse states of health. Health states are also more heterogeneous among women than men. Population-level estimates suggest that the number of elderly Australians requiring aged care services will exceed that projected under governmental assumptions by 2050.     

General Price-level Adjustment: Some Properties of the Edwards and Bell Method

The method of general price level adjustment proposed by Edwards and Bell differs from the traditional CPP method, insofar as it enables historical cost profit to be reconciled with real accounting income (CPP profit) by two steps within a single simple statement. Edwards and Bell's contribution is clarified in this paper, by proving rigorously the two theorems which underlie their method of applying general price level adjustment to historical cost. A numerical example is used to illustrate pure historical cost, traditional CPP, Edwards and Bell general price level adjustment, and Ijiri's dual, which is found to contain similar information to the Edwards and Bell system. This is followed by a discussion of Edwards and Bell's preferred method of price level adjustment to a replacement cost base. This method of adjustment, applied to a current cost base, underlay FAS33 as modified by FAS82 in the USA. Finally, Edwards and Bell's historical cost base is compared with a recent British proposal for a one-line adjustment to capture the effects of inflation on historical cost profit. The simplicity of the latter proposal lies in the form rather than the substance of the information presented.     

Drawdowns preceding rallies in the Brownian motion model

We study drawdowns and rallies of Brownian motion. A rally is defined as the difference of the present value of the Brownian motion and its historical minimum, while the drawdown is defined as the difference of the historical maximum and its present value. This paper determines the probability that a drawdown of a units precedes a rally of b units. We apply this result to examine stock market crashes and rallies in the geometric Brownian motion model.     

Reevaluating the modernization hypothesis

We revisit and critically reevaluate the widely accepted modernization hypothesis which claims that per capita income causes the creation and the consolidation of democracy. Existing studies find support for this hypothesis because they fail to control for the presence of omitted variables. Controlling for these factors either by including country fixed effects in a linear model or by including parameterized random effects in a nonlinear double hazard model removes the correlation between income and the likelihood of transitions to and from democratic regimes. In addition, the estimated fixed effects from the linear model are related to historical factors that affect both the level of income per capita and the likelihood of democracy in a country. This evidence is consistent with the idea that events during critical historical junctures can lead to divergent political-economic development paths, some leading to prosperity and democracy, others to relative poverty and non-democracy.     

行业组合视角下的银行信贷优化管理——基于中国商业银行的优化模型设计与实证分析

本文在经济下行周期的背景下,从行业组合的视角探讨商业银行如何根据国家政策及自身战略积极布局信贷资产,从被动调控向主动管理转变,实现收益、风险及资本的优化.本文提出两个优化模型——基于最优增长率的均值方差基准模型和专家判断的主动配置模型,通过加入风险相关性、风险容忍度、经济资本等约束,为银行在不同风险偏好下积极配置资产提...     

Testing the local volatility assumption: a statistical approach

In practice, the choice of using a local volatility model or a stochastic volatility model is made according to their respective ability to fit implied volatility surfaces. In this paper, we adopt a different point of view. Indeed, using a purely statistical methodology, we design new procedures aiming at testing the assumption of a local volatility model for the price dynamics, against the alternative of a stochastic volatility model. These test procedures are based only on historical data and do not require any calibration procedures via option prices. We also provide a convincing simulation study and an empirical analysis on future contracts on interest rates.     

Corporate social accountability through action: Contemporary insights from British industrial pioneers

Corporate social and environmental responsibility has become a major contemporary focus of business, government and community attention globally. With this increased attention and activity have come debates ranging across corporate authenticity, legislative necessity, and the scope of appropriate strategies. Through an historical analysis of four leading British industrialists of the 19th and early 20th centuries, this paper addresses the question of how corporate social accountability can be shaped and implemented by industrial leaders. It finds that while they may be motivated by a mix of business case agendas and their personal philosophical and religious beliefs, their accountability orientation reflects the latter. Social accountability in these cases, emerges as accountability rendered through action, reflecting organisational leaders’ moral responsibility and their connecting their personal beliefs with action for the common good. In the light of parallels between historical and contemporary global industrial environments, the study identifies resonances between historical and contemporary corporate leader social responsibility values, initiatives and accountabilities through action. This opens up the possibility of a more nuanced understanding of motivations for and manifestations of corporate social responsibility and accountability.     

新教禁欲主义理性的“生”、“死”之悲——解读韦伯《新教伦理与资本主义精神》

韦伯认为西方社会独特的理性主义精神之源,在于世俗的新教禁欲主义伦理,它以绝对超验的基督上帝为最高权威与最终目的,确立了资产阶级在世俗生活中的理性行为方式,塑造了近代西方理性主义的资本主义精神气质,但是资本主义经济的发展最终导致新教禁欲主义理性的悲剧性悖论:它在世俗生活中确立起理性的资本主义经济秩序,却最终随着资本主义经济的现代化发展而枯萎消亡,导致了基督教上帝的现代性悲剧:上帝死了,人生活意义和自由也随之丧失了.     

'Presenting' the past: perspectives on time for accounting and management history

Concepts of time in accounting and management historiography have only previously been considered as partial subsets of other methodological issues. This paper investigates our concepts of historical time with a view to offering alternative foundations to the unidirectional linear concept of chronological time employed in historical research project design and execution. Its analytical approach is pluralist in that it draws upon the historiographic writings of historians and historical theorists of traditional and post-modern persuasions, both within and beyond the accounting and management history fields. It addresses teleological, historicist and narrativist temporal underpinnings and considers historical practice in relation to assumptions about and interpretations of continuity and discontinuity. Time is extended beyond its conventional accounting and management chronology to include consideration of co-present, cyclical, relativist, structuralist and spatial time. Intrinsic and reflexive relationships between past, present and future are explored. The paper argues for a postmodern pluralisation of our historiographic approaches to time and their informing revisitations of historical accounting and management subjects with a view to better understanding that which we thought we already knew.