Research Opportunities for Neural Networks: The Case for Credit

This article identifies research opportunities in the use of artificial neural networks in credit scoring and related business intelligence situations, particularly as they have been emerging in the global economy. In the literature review, particular attention is paid to commercial lending credit risk assessment and consumer credit scoring. Investors and auditors need models that can predict whether a customer will stay viable. Lenders must manage their credit risk to maximize profits and cash flow, while minimizing losses. As the global economic recession continues, investors are tightening their investment belts and need models that help them make better investment decisions, while lenders must strengthen lending practices and better identify both good and bad credit risks. Artificial neural networks may help firms improve their credit model development, and thereby their credit decisions and profitability. Such technology may also help improve development in emerging economies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Postnormal network futures: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

Sardar's “Welcome to Postnormal Times” describes the chaotic, contradictory and uncertain climate today, and analyses the failure of progress, modernisation or efficiency to provide ethical, political or even trustworthy economic solutions to the instability of the present. Missing in his analysis is the role of knowledge, especially as it is migrating from individuals to technical networks. This paper argues that recent developments in the networking of knowledge point towards a new constellation in which networks are emerging as major powers alongside the nation and the market, the two pillars of global political economy in the 20th and early 21st century. It responds to Sardar's challenge to imagine the future by imagining the political consequences of recognising non-human agencies as political actors.     

A new Bandung? : Economic growth vs. distributive justice among emerging powers

The demographic weight and the scale and magnitude of economic growth in China and India—as well as in Brazil and South Africa—marks a seismological transformation in world politics. However, despite their economic clout, the emerging powers of the global South have done little to challenge the Euro-North American domination of the international stage—leaving that task to Bolivia, Venezuela, and Iran. The reluctance of the large states of the global South to challenge the contemporary world order—and the widening income and wealth inequalities within their borders—suggests that they are increasingly complicit in this new world order. However, as growing inequalities unleash greater political instability, it is in the interests of states in the global South to cooperate with each other to change the rules of the game.     

Many small antelopes make a dragon

This study focuses on small business in Taiwan. It first discusses the most important features that modern small firms provide, how they are involved in the growing integrated world economy, and the recent rising trends in the number of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). This trend, which follows an earlier decrease is further investigated in the context of the Taiwan economy. Finally, three conditions of Taiwan’s successful small firm sector are discussed: appropriate policy, global involvement, and entrepreneurship. Alternative small business futures depend on the conditions that encourage the development of SMEs. In one scenario, where SMEs can find the niche markets quickly, and enhance their expertise in logistics, a rise in SMEs in the global market may be expected. In another scenario, if SMEs fail in forming alliances and networks when confronting with giant firms or large Foreign Direct Investment, there might be a reduction in enterprising behavior. Judging from the former performance of Taiwan’s SMEs, it can be concluded that there is a good chance that SMEs will remain a vibrant and important participant of its economy and the world economy in the future.     

Progress, nature and technology in late-modern transition

New experiences and observations, strange enough to awaken our attention, are emerging and accumulating in our time. They range from societal tremors and spreading poverty to the formation of a global world economy, and from economic and political crises and changes of earthly conditions of life to the fast development of technology. Researchers and philosophers in almost every field of study are talking about the present time as a transition between two eras, or as a major shift of our worldviews and basic ideas.     

论新兴市场的潜在威胁(英文)

随着全球经济的发展,越来越多的跨国公司开始步入新兴市场。然而,事实上,大多数公司都没有取得他们理想中的成功。相反,在新兴市场中,他们将面临着更复杂的问题和风险。本文旨在分析新兴市场中存在的潜在威胁。     

Thinking for the future: global corporate responsibility in the twenty-first century

This paper reflects on the kinds of responsibility businesses today must exercise in order to be part of the solution to the problems of a globalising world. These problems are to a large extent rooted in the dynamics of a globalization that is driven by business objectives and operations. They are brought to the fore of global consciousness by civil society protest on the one hand and investor pressure on the other in a manner that reminds us of Adam Smith's anxieties concerning the threats posed by corporate power. It is clear that in our time the systemic complexities of global interdependence magnify these threats in ways beyond the control of governments and nation states. The remedy must thus lie with the companies themselves. Businesses, whether global or local, must recognize that as agents of global change they are acting not simply as economic but also as moral agents. They must assume the responsibility for the effects of their actions, and we argue that the best way to do this is to commit to the primacy of human rights as an overarching value governing all their internal and external dealings. This has its difficulties, as we discuss in the latter part of the article: we use the example of a Brazilian study to illustrate some of the problems of acting out such a commitment. This study also illustrates the point that the futures of business and of the communities in which they exist are intertwined; shareholder value and human rights are interactive elements of ‘good’ business.     

Abraham Lincoln and the global economy

Abraham Lincoln would have well understood the challenges facing many modern emerging nations. In Lincoln's America, as in many developing nations today, sweeping economic change threatened older industries, traditional ways of living, and social and national cohesion by exposing economies and societies to new and powerful competitive forces. Yet even in the midst of the brutal and expensive American Civil war--and in part because of it--Lincoln and the Republican Congress enacted bold legislation that helped create a huge national market, a strong and unified economy governed by national institutions, and a rising middle class of businessmen and property owners. Figuring out how to maximize the benefits of globalization while minimizing its disruptions is a formidable challenge for policy makers. How do you expand opportunities for the talented and the lucky while making sure the rest of society doesn't fall behind? It may be helpful to look at the principles that informed the policies that Lincoln and the Republican Congress instituted after they came to power in 1861: Facilitate the upward mobility of low- and middle-income groups to give them a significant stake in the country. Emphasize the good of the national economy over regional interests. Affirm the need for sound government institutions to temper the dynamics of the free enterprise system. Tailor policies to the national situation. Realize that a period of turmoil may present a unique opportunity for reform. These principles drove the reforms that helped Americans cope with and benefit from rapid technological advances and the fast integration of the American economy in the nineteenth century. They may be instructive to today's policy makers who are struggling to help their own citizens integrate into the fast-changing global economy of the twenty-first century.     

From authenticity to significance: Tourism on the frontier of culture and place

The tourism of the future will include greater demand on the part of citizens of economically emerging nations, as well as on the part of a growing number of retirement age persons in many of the more developed countries. There are important environmental, cultural, and social consequences associated with these demographic shifts. Trendsetters for the tourism of the near future are likely to be well-educated elites who are familiar with travel and comfortable in culturally diverse situations. They will have an understanding of the consequences of global economic development, and will better realize that their participation in tourism comes with a cost to communities and environments through which they pass. They will see value in tourism experiences that support principles of environmental sustainability, heritage preservation and cultural diversity, and human equality. This generation of tourists will have greater choice of travel venues and access to considerably more information on which to base their travel plans, and they will be more likely to expect travel experiences that have breadth as well as depth and that provide opportunities for self-improvement as well as leisure and entertainment.     

Brazil's rise: Inequality, culture and globalization

This paper argues that the manifold patterns of globalization in relation to inequality can give rise to both the emergence of economic powers (again) rooted in widespread or deep social inequalities and to transversal forces—that cut across social domains (such as the economy, politics or cultural life), national borders, and social groups or classes—seeking to reinforce or to overturn those inequalities. These rising global players both represent particular historical courses toward modernity and capitalism and express in their contradictory outlook the very trends informing hegemonic globalization. These societies are fundamentally split in terms of a global/local economic and socio-cultural dynamics, which at once positions them in favor of integration and resists several of its instantiations. This further sets off a political dispute over the meaning and impact of globalization, which raises an awareness of cultural particularity and also prompts moves toward global articulations as a means to tackle inequality. The Brazilian case is offered as an example of this process: inequality lies at the root of its capitalist modernization, strongly connected to the legacy of slavery, and the recent juncture of globalization has both deepened inequality and opened a chance of fighting it.     

Future roles of business in society: the expanding boundaries of corporate responsibility and a compelling case for partnership

The roles and responsibilities of business in society, in particular global business, are being defined more broadly by an expanding range of stakeholders. This paper aims to review these changes and their implications in order to understand better the likely future expectations of business in society and the way in which leading companies are setting new standards of responsible business practice. It begins by tracing trends within corporate social responsibility debates, and then draws on empirical research and observed stakeholder demands of business, to argue that the boundaries of corporate responsibility are advancing both internally and externally.Internally, these boundaries are changing in terms of the increased responsibility of corporations towards their direct and indirect internal stakeholders. This is shown through innovations in business practice to achieve enhanced social justice in the workplace, improved governance, and more accurate disclosure of non-financial risk. This paper provides a context for this discussion by examining emerging international law, guidelines and voluntary initiatives, regulatory frameworks, and risk review procedures that increasingly seek to redefine corporate responsibility by establishing new norms of best practice and behaviour. These boundaries are also expanding externally, as society increasingly expects global business to work with others to provide solutions to humanitarian crises and endemic problems facing the world. This paper explores how some companies are doing this by applying core competencies in ways that integrate social development and business goals. It suggests, in turn, that the challenges of these expanding boundaries of responsibilities are best addressed through strategic partnerships.This paper concludes that there are new multi-stakeholder convened global governance frameworks evolving that are encouraging businesses of the future to re-invent themselves as a ‘force for positive good’ in society. This involves going beyond the paradigm of simply ‘doing no harm’, and way beyond previous expectations of business as being only about shareholder value. This prediction is supported by examples drawn from the practice of global companies that are already innovating to fulfil this wider role.     

The evolution and future of the BRICS: Unbundling politics from economics

Under the current global forces, economics muddled with politics is exerting undue pressures on the BRICS countries and is challenging the sustainability of their accord. Unanticipated problems are increasingly inhibiting economic and social prosperity. This paper analyzes the current difficulties that the BRICS are facing, scrutinizes their unique individual economic and political environments, and ventures to anticipate their prospects. Our consensus is that the future prosperity of these countries depends not only on their individual political and economic environments, but also on the major global powers. Furthermore, the current inevitable interconnectivity of politics and economics provides foresight into their future role on the world stage.     

Do banks have a future?: A study on banking and finance as we move into the third millennium

Are banks special intermediaries? Do they play any unique role in the economy? And if so, will they retain their specialness in the ever-faster changing world of finance? The rapid evolution of finance over the last two decades and the breathtaking “e-age” revolution have persuaded many that, eventually, banks will be indistinguishable from other financial intermediaries since all their functions can, at least as efficiently, be carried out by nonbanks. This study re-explores the issue of the specialness of banks in light of the large existing literature on the subject, and presents an approach which identifies the banks' specialness with their unique capacity to lend out claims on their own debt which the public accepts and uses as money. The study discusses various structural and policy implications deriving from the approach, and draws on it to point to the continuing relevance of banking in a world where nonbanks are taking business away from banks, lending to production has become relatively less important, and the use of e-money may soon be dominating financial transactions.     

Risks and Rewards in Emerging Market Investments

In light of the recent currency crises in East Asia, this article questions the accepted wisdom that emerging market securities deserve to be included in global portfolios primarily because of their low correlations with more conventional asset classes. The authors suggest that the basic cycle of emerging market loans and securities appears to have been compressed, and its swings accentuated, by the herd-like behavior of global institutional investors. This is not the irrational behavior of crowds infected by investment euphoria, but the rational behavior (however volatile) of a large number of institutional investors with huge stakes in the market, each trying to outperform or at least keep up with the others. While stressing the benefits of foreign capital for emerging nations, Smith and Walter also point to the adverse consequences of abrupt shifts in investor sentiment and capital flows. Citing a recent World Bank study, the authors suggest that the effect of portfolio equity inflows on many developing economies has been a “glut” of foreign exchange and liquidity, which tends to cause inflationary pressure and appreciation of real exchange rates. Such currency appreciation can in turn have unwanted “real” effects, such as increases in trade deficits. Going somewhat “against the grain of the Washington Consensus,” the authors suggest that emerging nations undertake a gradual, though steady movement toward adoption of freemarket policies. In particular, they cite with approval attempts by more successful emerging nations such as Chile and South Africa to limit portfolio capital inflows to avoid this problem of excess liquidity. As the authors conclude, “At no point in their development did now-established countries like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Spain, and Chile adopt a totally free-market approach. They moved purposefully over decades in that direction, but only at a pace that could be accommodated by the accompanying political thinking and infrastructure-building.”     

An Information-Based Model of Foreign Direct Investment: The Gains from Trade Revisited

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is observed to be a predominant form of capital flows to emerging economies, especially when they are liquidity-constrained internationally during a global financial crisis. The financial aspects of FDI are the focus of this paper. We analyze the problem of channelling domestic savings into productive investment in the presence of asymmetric information between the managing owners of firms and other portfolio stakeholders. We explore the role played by FDI in reviving equity-financed capital investment for economies plagued by such information problems. In the presence of information asymmetry, the paper identifies, however, how FDI gives rise to foreign overinvestment as well as domestic undersaving. The gains from trade argument (applied to intertemporal trade) is re-examined in this case of informational-asymmetry-driven FDI. We show that the gains could be sizable when the domestic credit market is either under-developed or failing as a result of a financial crisis. But with a well-functioning domestic credit market, the gains turn into losses. Surprisingly, capital may flow into the country even when the autarkic marginal productivity of capital in the domestic economy falls short of the world rate of interest. In such a situation, capital should have efficiently flown out rather than in, and FDI is a social loss-generating phenomenon.     

Paths of learning, grieving and transforming

This paper looks at the internal paths people walk as they are engaged in learning about future generations. The deep personal relevance and immediacy of the topic engage students as whole persons in learning processes that transform their perspective on the world and on themselves. Facilitating students as they go through this transformative learning cycle is the task of the teacher. Furthermore, although not widely recognized as such, grief is a part of any learning process as people let go of one thought, perspective or behavior, and try on a different one. When the topic is emotionally loaded with such profound implications as that of the future of our planet, grief becomes even more intense for the learner. Thus educators benefit from an understanding of both learning and grieving processes as they teach courses about future generations. By acknowledging the mourning associated with transforming the learners' world view, educators may assist students to move beyond immobilizing blocks and despair to creative action. This paper explores the normal experiential learning cycle and natural grief processes as they are played out within students while learning about global futures.     

The roles of financial asset market failure denial and the economic crisis: Reflections on accounting and financial theories and practices

Throughout the world every economic and socio-economic indicator has deteriorated. The so-called ‘real economy’ has been deeply contaminated by the most significant global financial crisis for seven decades. The ultimate extent and duration of this rampant degeneration and its longer-term political effects are unpredictable but what caused the crisis? This paper examines a range of suppositions made in theories which deny the possibility of financial asset market failure and identifies ways in which they contributed to the circumstances and actions which created the current crisis.     

The end of neoliberal history—the future of economics

The future of economics needs discussion both negatively, as the denial of neoliberal perspective, and positively as a science that is able to handle the historic welfare-freedom-culture paradox. The authors state that this alternative is political economy, which they define as a science searching for materialisation of social visions in the economic sphere. This tradition dates back to ancient cultures and does not coincide with the present usage of political economy. The article discusses the political economy of the information age and beyond. The core idea is that the human alternative of ongoing technological changes executes long run visions of mankind: co-existence of freedom and welfare under cultural leadership in a global scale.     

Does the “Zurich consensus” provide grounds for cautious optimism?

It is now clear that the so-called “Washington consensus”, the obsession with markets and the studied refusal to engage with global problems, is dead. The month of November 2008 may be seen by future generations as a turning point in human civilisation. While the Club of Rome has been warning for decades of the consequences of unsustainable growth, organisations like the World Economic Forum and the International Energy Agency have until recently supported the old market-oriented approach that assumed economic growth would solve all our problems. Now the financial crisis has exploded that myth and triggered rethinking of basic assumptions. A new consensus is emerging that recognises biophysical limits and the interlocking social, economic and environmental challenges we face. This provides grounds for cautious optimism that we may be entering a period of social learning which will allow human civilisation to survive.     

The hidden dragons

Most multinational corporations are fascinated with China. Carried away by the number of potential customers and the relatively cheap labor, firms seeking a presence in China have traditionally focused on selling products, setting up manufacturing facilities, or both. But they've ignored an important development: the emergence of Chinese firms as powerful rivals--in China and also in the global market. In this article, Ming Zeng and Peter Williamson describe how Chinese companies like Haier, Legend, and Pearl River Piano have quietly managed to grab market share from older, bigger, and financially stronger rivals in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Global managers tend to offer the usual explanations for why Chinese companies don't pose a threat: They aren't big enough or profitable enough to compete overseas, the managers say, and these primarily state-owned companies are ill-financed and ill-equipped for global competition. As the government's policies about the private ownership of companies changed from forbidding the practice to encouraging it, a new breed of Chinese companies evolved. The authors outline the four types of hybrid Chinese companies that are simultaneously tackling the global market. China's national champions are using their advantages as domestic leaders to build global brands. The dedicated exporters are entering foreign markets on the strength of their economies of scale. The competitive networks have taken on world markets by bringing together small, specialized companies that operate in close proximity. And the technology upstarts are using innovations developed by China's government-owned research institutes to enter emerging sectors such as biotechnology. Zeng and Williamson identify these budding multinationals, analyze their strategies, and evaluate their weaknesses.