Effective Rental Housing Demand in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region

This paper reports on the estimation of housing demand for tenants in Tokyo Metropolitan Region using household level data for 1993. The results indicate that the rental housing demand is inelastic with respect to permanent income and price, with coefficients as 0.31 and -0.093 respectively. Other important variables, which determine housing demand for tenants are length of stay and type of household. Larger households demand more housing. However, keeping the size of household constant, households with elderly members have higher demand for housing. The only exception to the rule is households formed with members not belonging to same nucleus family demand less housing.     

THE DESIGN OF DIRECT DEMAND SUBSIDY PROGRAMS FOR HOUSING IN LATIN AMERICA

Traditional Latin American housing programs, which have used below-market interest rates to convey subsidies, have suffered from serious vices: high per-unit cost and subsidies, low population coverage, lack of transparency, benefits to the middle-class rather than the poor, and inefficiency. Chile broke out of this flawed traditional mode by launching a housing program that conveys subsidies directly to households in die form of a one-time, non-reimbursable grant This approach has spread to other Latin American countries, increasingly with the support of donors. The paper describes and then analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of direct subsidy programs in Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Uruguay to distill ten design lessons: target to low-income households and ensure political autonomy; replace below-market interest rates with direct demand subsidies; use group mechanisms for low-income households; stimulate supply, not just demand; adjust key amounts for inflation; balance progressivity and financial feasibility; join die efforts of various levels of government; use NGOs; establish mechanisms for on-going consolidation of housing solutions; and include measures to promote broader housing sector reform. The conclusion applies these lessons to the design of a housing pilot project in Venezuela.     

高层建筑轴线放线方法的探讨

房屋建筑的质量,除了从设计上进行保障外,施工要求也是一个不可缺少的质量保障环节。房屋的施工放线就是从形状上满足设计要求的必不可少的技术手段。过去从当时的科技条件和技术水平,各施工单位采用各自的技术方法来满足和达到设计要求,随着社会城市化发展,人们需要更多的居住房的要求,高层建筑层出不穷,传统的经纬仪放线方法已受到限制,因此随着科学的发展,激光测量仪器的出现为高层建筑的施工测量提供了即方便又精确的方法。本文针对在高层建筑的施工建设中,采用激光经纬仪进行施工放线测量的方法进行了探讨,并对此方法的可行性进行了证明。     

住房负担能力测度方法研究综述

如何测定居民住房负担和价格可支付能力,既是开展住房保障制度建设的重要前提,也是防范住房市场风险的基础工作。对居民住房负担能力研究的重点,需要对其定义有一个十分清晰的界定与把握,选择合适和科学的住房负担能力测度方法。就国际上研究居民住房可支付能力的最主要四种方法:传统的住房支出收入比法、考虑适当住房标准的住房支出收入比法、剩余收入法以及复合测度法等做了研究综述。     

货币政策房地产市场传导机制研究--基于SVAR模型的实证分析

基于2000-2013年房地产市场相关月度时间序列数据,构建货币政策房地产市场传导机制的理论框架,建立8个变量的结构向量自回归模型（SVAR）分析货币政策、房地产供给需求和消费投资等实体经济变量的相互关系,研究表明货币政策尤其是利率政策能显著影响房地产供给需求,但房地产需求对消费的正向冲击影响十分有限,对投资反而产生负向冲击。由此提出,利率政策应当关注房地产价格波动,避免房地产价格非理性上涨对宏观经济的负面影响。     

Housing demand in Mexico

This paper analyzes the components of housing demand in Mexico in the context of developing and developed nations. The case of Mexico is particularly interesting given that population and income dynamics, as well as current housing shortages, suggest that the demand for housing will significantly increase in the near future. We use micro-level data from market-based mortgages that originated during the period of 2002 to 2004 for 21 metropolitan areas in Mexico. We find the price elasticity of housing demand to be ?0.3, lower than previous studies for developed countries and within the range for developing countries. Permanent income is a major component of housing demand, with an elasticity of 0.8. In contrast, temporary income has a very low elasticity of 0.04. The mortgage rate elasticity for 25-year mortgages is ?0.39. We believe these results provide important information to policy makers and practitioners in Mexico and other developing nations.     

我国普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性研究

本文利用1997年到2009年全国以及各地区的房地产面板数据,借鉴蛛网模型的相关理论,构建供给与需求的联立方程,选择固定效应IV估计法拟合面板联立方程模型,对普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的普通商品住房市场处于不稳定状态,普通商品住房当期及滞后期的价格、城镇人均可支配收入、城镇就业人口、土地购置面积、经济适用房、别墅的供求状况等因素都对普通商品住房的供求变化产生较为显著的影响。     

城市青年白领住房需求偏好实证分析——以南京市为例

本文通过问卷调查了解南京市青年白领的住房需求情况。通过数据统计分析得出，婚姻状况、现住房性质、年龄、年收入是影响城市青年白领住房需求的主要因素。城市青年白领的刚性需求与改善型需求受婚姻状况影响显著，住房需求以刚性需求为主，改善需求强烈；年收入的不同导致了房屋单价的承受能力不同，大多城市青年白领可承受的房屋单价与当时南京平均房价仍有较大距离，存在住房困难问题。建议加强住房公积金的住房保障作用，提供一定的租金补贴和首次购房贷款优惠，实行差异化住房供应体系，满足不同住房需求。     

时间偏好与居民住房需求的内生波动

从时间偏好内生化角度研究居民住房需求随年龄波动的微观机制,理论模型表明：即使没有其他外生冲击,年龄的变化也会引起居民住房需求的内生波动。具体来看,居民住房需求随年龄存在先上升后下降的倒“U”型波动趋势;进一步地,利用中国家庭住户收入项目调查数据（CHIPS）对理论模型结论进行了实证检验,该结论在修正样本选择性偏误和稳健性检验后仍然成立。因此在长期中必须注意居民住房需求波动对我国房地产市场发展的影响。     

Discrete choice models and the housing price and travel to work elasticities of location demand

Multinomial logit and nested logit models of mode choice in travel to work and housing location choice are estimated from 1970 U.S. census data aggregated to small zones of the Chicago SMSA. The estimated models are then used to derive the “housing rent,” “travel time,” and “travel cost” elasticities of location demand. The effects of sampling variation, sample size, attribute inclusion, model specification, and estimation method on the estimated elasticities are evaluated and found to be important. The elasticities are also compared and found to agree with those obtained from other discrete choice models and, in the case of “housing rent,” with estimates obtained from models based on other theoretical structure.     

Simultaneity in the market for housing characteristics

The nature of simultaneity in the markets for housing characteristics is examined. Simultaneity is found to arise in the implicit markets for individual characteristics because of the presence of nonlinearity in the market (hedonic) price function for housing. However, this simultaneity is not the kind discussed by S. Rosen [J. Political Econ. 82, 34–55 (1974)] between firm supplies and household demands. As a result, the Rosen suggestion of identifying demand with firm supply shifters is inappropriate. Among the alternative approaches to identification, the most desirable involve use of data over two or more markets in which residence for a given household is exogenous to the choice of housing.     

论个人住房贷款发展的困境、原因及化解

近期，国内商业银行出现了普遍的“额度荒”问题，大多研究认为这一现象是周期性和短期性的。但其实是商业银行经营的内外环境发生了根本的变化，如存贷款利率市场化加速，传统的房贷业务不适应银行经营环境的变化。房贷“额度荒”反映的是商业性金融追求盈利与政策性金融的冲突，本质上则是政策性住房银行缺失的结果。发达国家在位房需求增长较快时期均通过成立政纂性住房金融机构来满足住房融资需求，我国也要成立真正的政策性住房银行，这才是解决房贷困境的根本出路。     

A probabilistic approach to the structure of rental housing markets

A probabilistic view of the structure of urban housing markets is developed. The demand side is based on aggregate probabilistic demand functions derived from microbehavioral random utility theory. The supply side examines the short-run pricing of the housing stock by developing “asking rent theory,” which explains how a housing supplier must find the optimal rent that maximizes expected revenue. Next, concepts of aggregate market clearing and market equilibrium are defined. Finally, a two-submarket model with specific assumptions regarding the representation of demand and the nature of market signaling is examined in detail and is given a graphical illustration. In closing, directions for extending the probabilistic approach both within and beyond urban analysis are pointed out. All analysis in this paper is for a stationary urban economy, with the housing stock assumed fixed.     

Housing investment: What makes it so volatile? Theory and evidence from OECD countries

This paper explains how mortgage market liberalization can introduce greater volatility in the housing market, which is a stylized fact documented from OECD countries, with a DSGE model where households face a credit constraint and housing is used as collateral. The housing collateral constraint creates a link between the housing market and borrowing capacity, a link that amplifies the response of housing demand to technology shocks and strengthens in economies with more liberalized mortgage markets.     

Estimation and policy implications of rental housing demand

The demand for rental housing using the Annual Housing Survey SMSA sample for 1977 is estimated. The principal determinants of rental housing demand, namely housing price and permanent/transitory income, are computed through spatially varying hedonic price techniques and instrumental variables methods (relating to human and nonhuman capital), respectively. Based on the demand estimation results, impacts of hypothetical cash and rent subsidy programs are analyzed in terms of “housing” and “welfare” effects. It is found that a rent subsidy achieves considerably larger effects than does a cash subsidy.     

适应人口数量和结构变动的刚性住房需求研究——以上海市为例

相对于影响住房供给和需求的其他因素,人口因素具有相对稳定型,因此从人口角度来分析住房市场是一个相当理想的视角。上海作为一个生育率超低水平的城市和快速移民的城市,人口年龄结构的变化也表现得尤其剧烈。准确把握上海的人口状况和结构变动,做好城市住房管理工作,维持稳定的住房价格,保证住房市场得到稳定健康发展,同时提高居民的居住福利,有序推动城市化过程,是上海发展面临的突出挑战。分析上海市户籍人口和常住人口不同的刚性住房需求变迁,得到外来常住流动人口的刚性住房需求将成为城市住房需求的主要动力。基于外来人口的特性,未来本市人口住房购买性刚性需求比例将降低,相应的以租赁等形式的刚性住房需求旺盛,且多以低档小户型住房需求为主。同时,外来常住流动人口中集体户人口增加,集体式公寓等住房类型的刚性需求相应增加。     

房地产市场调控，要坚持更要完善——“十年调控”问卷调查的启示和思考

通过对196份问卷的总结分析，得到对于未来房地产调控的许多启示：十年房地产调控是必要的；总体评价消极的依据是供求依然失衡，房价越来越高。调控成效不彰的原因有：对住房供求政策、调控配套政策评价消极，还认为财政税收压力是地方政府不积极的首要原因。大多数问卷建议：推动供求和房价基本稳定还是调控首要目的确立；房价合理上升的几个界限；房地产调节机制应该以市场调节为主、政府调节为辅；明确住房需求政策、住房供给政策、住房土地政策、经济手段、行政手段和税收手段改进的方向。     

Property taxation and the demand for housing: An econometric analysis

There is disagreement among economists regarding the effect of a local increase in property taxation on the housing market. In defining the price of housing services studies of the demand for housing have treated the property tax exclusively as an excise tax on housing consumption. Two recent theoretical developments suggest this is a misrepresentation of the tax. One theory holds that the excise effects of property taxation may be shifted backward to the factors employed in the production of housing. The other theory concludes that the property tax is not an excise, but rather serves as an efficient price for local public services. To investigate these hypotheses, data from the Annual Housing Survey were employed to estimate a housing demand model which included the net effective property tax rate among the set of independent variables. In addition to revealing the property tax-housing demand relationship, the model provides more reliable estimates of income and price elasticities by eliminating specification errors found in previous studies. Results indicate that the property tax reduces the housing consumption of central city homeowners, but does not distort the suburban housing market.     

货币和税收政策对我国住房价格的影响——基于VAR模型的实证研究

基于我国1999-2010年房地产市场季度数据,本文建立向量自回归模型(VAR)和向量误差修正模型(VEC),将住房供给和需求同时纳入模型,分析我国利率政策、信贷政策和税收政策对住房价格的影响。结果显示,贷款利率在短期内对住房供给有负效应,但长期效应不明显;贷款规模对住房价格的短期冲击明显,二者之间存在正相关关系;针对保有环节征税可以通过影响住房供给,从而有效抑制住房价格上升。根据我国住房供求特点,应优先选择税收工具,通过促进住房供给实现控制房价的政策目标。     

Estimating the Demand for Housing, Land, and Neighbourhood Characteristics

This paper provides estimates of the structure of demand for individual housing and neighbourhood characteristics and for land in two British cities. We estimate a hedonic price function, and from this obtain the implicit prices of house attributes. These prices are used to estimate a demand system for each city. These perform well, and enable us to calculate price and income elasticities for each of the non-dichotomous characteristics and for land. To counteract criticisms of demand estimates derived within the hedonic framework a method is developed for selecting an appropriate set of instrumental variables. Estimates derived from this method, however, differ only slightly from those obtained using the conventional techniques. Several features of these estimates provide insights into the unusual characteristics of the British housing market, the effects of constraints imposed by land use planning, and the effects of changing income distribution on the structure of demand.