平行进口与最优贸易政策

以往文献关于平行进口问题的最优贸易政策分析,一般是从全球福利最大化的角度加以审视和探讨,这和现实有一定差距。对平行进口问题采用何种贸易政策为最优,更加现实的判断标准应是本国的福利最大化,而不应是全球福利最大化。为此,延伸以往文献的分析,建立一个三国三阶段的博弈模型,按照制造商是采用两部定价还是歧视定价的不同,分别分析一国的最优贸易政策。结论发现,无论制造商采用何种方式定价,若一国的自主品牌较少,应当允许平行进口,和以往文献不同。     

A股市场新股的因素定价模型实证研究

现代股权定价理论对A股初始定价时存在缺陷,采用主成份回归法,确定影响A股初始定价的主因子,在此基础上建立初始定价模型。根据模型,影响A股初始定价的因素从高到低分别为:成本因子、投资偏好因子、市况因子、业绩成长性因子,实证结果与传统股票定价理论并不吻合。     

Resource Structure and Imports: An Analysis of the Relationship between Skill-Intensive Imports and Skill Endowment

Countries generally import those goods which they do not produce, and there is a possibility that this might be due to unavailability of resources needed to produce the goods which the countries import. Hence, countries with lower levels of total skill endowment are supposed to import more skill-intensive goods than countries with higher levels of total skill endowment. However, the presence of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade makes this picture complex. Using a theoretical model derived on the basis of earlier theories and some empirical investigation on data of 72 countries of 3 years, this article tries to find out whether there is any relation between total skill endowment and imports of a country. The results show that there is indeed a relationship, but the nature of this relationship depends on the effect of total skill endowment on the country's skill-intensive exports as well.     

外商直接投资对中国商品进出口影响的实证分析

本文采用贸易引力模型,结合混合回归分析与横截面分析两种方法,对1992年至2004年外商对华直接投资对中国商品进出口、出口、进口的影响进行了实证分析。混合回归结果表明,外商对华直接投资对中国商品进出口、出口、进口的增长均存在长期且显著的促进作用,而且这种促进作用存在时滞。横截面分析结果表明,每年外商对华直接投资对于中国商品进出口、出口、进口的促进作用随着时间的推移是波动的,但从总趋势来看,这种促进作用在不断增强。     

Effect of Exchange Rates and Gasoline Prices on US Imports of Japanese Automobiles

We analyze the effects of gasoline prices and exchange rates on Japanese automobile imports to the United States between 1970 and 2004. We test the relationships before, during, and after the Voluntary Restraint Agreement placed on Japanese imports between 1981 and 1988. We also control for general demand for automobiles and domestically manufactured Japanese vehicles. As expected, we found that demand for Japanese imports is positively correlated with the price of gasoline. Before 1988 the demand for Japanese imports contributed to a strengthening of the yen. But after, a positive relationship between the yen-for-dollar exchange rate and imports has prevailed.     

基于企业国际经验的国外市场选择和进入模式研究

国际经验对企业选择国外市场进入模式的影响是企业国际化管理研究的重点之一,然而这一问题并没有引起国内理论研究的广泛关注。为了弥补这个缺陷,本文对288家国内上市公司的国际经营数据进行了研究。研究发现,企业国际经验,特别是决策团队的国际经验对国外市场选择和国外市场进入模式存在积极的影响。同时,规模越大、技术含量越高的企业,越倾向于选择资源投入较大的国外市场进入模式。     

关税减让对我国农产品进口的影响分析

本文运用理论和实证的分析方法,研究了关税减让对我国农产品进口的实际影响。研究结果表明,关税减让与我国农产品的进口之间存在着高度的负相关关系,在影响我国农产品进口行为的诸多因素中,关税起到了主要的作用,但并非唯一因素。同时,关税减让与农产品的进口额、进口结构之间存在密切的关系,最后,还提出几点政策性意见。     

基于灰色马尔可夫模型的市场需求预测

结合灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和马尔可夫预测模型的优点,建立了灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)预测模型,以市场需求预测为实例,证明灰色马尔可夫预测模型对于随机波动性较大的市场需求的数据列的预测具有一定的准确性和应用性。     

专利产品的平行进口问题研究

专利产品的平行进口是国际贸易中的常见问题，关系到专利权人和社会公众之间的利益平衡，必须认真对待。国外对这个问题存在不同的看法。本文拟通过分析专利产品平行进口的特殊性和比较国外有关规定，针对我国如何对待专利产品的平行进口问题提出构想。     

考虑存在平行进口的跨国供应链价格竞争研究

跨境电商以及配套物流网络的快速发展致使平行进口对部分行业产生了巨大影响。通过建立三种市场权力模式下跨国制造商与本地制造商的博弈模型,本文对比分析有无灰色市场的不同模式供应链参与者的定价及利润,探析平行进口对低支付意愿市场的跨国制造商与本地制造商之间寡头竞争的影响。研究发现:市场支付意愿比值低于某一阈值时不会出现平行进口,市场权力模式和灰色市场的存在能影响跨国供应链参与者的收益多寡及定价策略;灰色市场有益于本地制造商和平行进口商,市场处于单一制造商主导模式有助于减少跨国制造商损失、增加本地制造商收益及缩减平行进口商的利润,在制造商共同主导模式下存在一个市场支付意愿比值区间,致使跨国制造商收益增加;平行进口促进还是抑制寡头供应链的价格竞争,取决于市场权力的结构形式。     

我国股票市场功能的实证分析

本文认为,辩证、客观地认识我国股票市场并确定股票市场发展方向,对我国经济发展具有非常重要的意义。文章利用1987～2003年的数据对我国股票市场与经济增长的关系及我国股市功能进行实证分析。研究发现,境内外股票筹资率的上升对资源配置效率的改善和经济增长具有积极的作用;而由于市盈率过高和传导机制失灵,流通市价与GDP比率的上升对经济增长有明显的负作用。因此,证券市场发展规划既要大力促进境内外股票筹资率的上升,又要适当控制泡沫与过度投机,从而推进证券市场健康稳定发展。     

Parallel imports and the lot of a starving artist

Abstract

This paper studies the role of copyright in the market for cultural output and how parallel imports effect the structure of incentives faced by artists. It demonstrates that parallel imports effect the distribution of income between generations of artists, raising the income of younger artists while reducing the income of superstars; the net outcome being a decline in the number of artists producing cultural output. Optimal subsidies to offset this decline can either involve a subsidy to starving young artists and no subsidy for superstars, or the opposite outcome depending on government attitudes towards the distribution of income.     

我国电子信息业的国际市场势力:一个实证分析

本文运用Goldberg & Knetter(1999)的剩余需求弹性模型,选取SITC(Rev.3)76222这一典型电子信息产品,对其在美、日、德三国市场上的国际市场势力进行了检验。研究结果表明,受产品需求弹性和竞争对手供给替代弹性较大等因素影响,我国SITC(Rev.3)76222产品的出口企业未能形成价格加成能力,陷入了国际市场势力缺失的困境。基于实证研究结论,本文亦有针对性的提出了增强我国电子信息业国际市场势力的对策建议。     

二板市场与主板市场对经济增长作用的差异——基于美国的经验分析

在我国着手建设包括二板市场在内的多层次资本市场体系之际,借鉴国际发达资本市场的经验无疑具有重要意义。运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验的方法,对美国二板市场发展与经济增长、主板市场发展与经济增长之间的关系进行比较研究。结果表明:美国实际经济增长与二板市场、主板市场的市值水平和流动性水平等变量之间存在显著的长期均衡关系和因果关系。     

基于因子分析的套利定价模型及实证研究

众所周知,建立套利定价模型的关键在于因素的筛选,计算量很大。而因子分析能将为数众多的原始指标变量经过分析综合为少数几个公共因子变量,从而大大减少计算的复杂度。本文利用因子分析的方法对11个因素进行筛选,确定四个能够很好地反映所有因素包含的信息但又互不相关的公共因子变量,并建立套利定价模型,实证检验说明,通过该方法进行因素筛选建立的套利定价模型具有较好的定价效果。     

Effect of Store Brand Introduction on Channel Price Leadership: An Empirical Investigation

In this study, we conduct an empirical investigation of the impact of store brand introductions on the price leadership relations in a distribution channel between a retailer and national brand manufacturers. We analyze a multi-product category retail database from a major grocery chain, which captures both a period before and a period after the introduction of a store brand in each product category. By applying the time series approach to this data set, we show that store brand introductions frequently lead to price leadership changes, generally in a more favorable direction for the retailer than for the national brand manufacturer, evidenced by either the decay of the manufacturers’ price leadership or the rise of the retailer’s price leadership. However, such a change is not universal but tends to be concentrated among a certain quality tier of national brands, which is not always the low-tier, but sometimes the top-tier despite the low-price low-quality position of the store brand. The patterns detected in the data suggest that these changes are likely to reflect the retailer’s strategic effort to reshape the price leadership environment in a product category aided by the enhanced bargaining power and managerial sophistication that accompanied the store brand introductions.     

我国上市公司年报业绩预告对股价影响的实证研究

利用事件分析法，对上市公司信息披露新规则颁布实施后上市公司的市场表现进行了实证分析。证实了上市公司年报业绩预告具有信息含量，股价对信息披露存在提前反应，我国的股票市场还没有达到半强式有效。根据分析过程与实证结果，对投资的套利行为、上市公司的信息披露举措、监管方对信息披露的监管提出了几点应用性建议。     

Imports and productivity: the impact of geography and factor intensity

Usingmicro-data for Dutch firms, we argue that both the geographic component (what country is the import from) and the intensity component (what type of good is imported) is crucial for measuring and understanding productivity premia associated with importing. For example, our results indicate that the productivity premium associated with importing technology-intensive products from Taiwan differs from importing unskilled-labor-intensive products from Switzerland. We show that increasing distance and decreasing levels of development of the origin economy are negatively associated with the productivity premia of importing. Similarly, these premia are larger for technology- intensive goods and smaller for unskilled-labor-intensive goods. This implies that the geographic-intensity markets are unique and cannot be lumped together. In addition, a more dispersed import portfolio (the extensive dimension) is always positively associated with firm-level productivity.     

论市场因素对保险产品定价的影响

基于精算技术的保费厘定实际上是用一种成本定价方法,未考虑市场因素对价格的影响。即单个投保人之间对保险产品价格变化的容忍程度、价格空间的大小变化对顾客需求的影响以及不同组群的潜在投保人的需求差别。分析市场因素对保险产品定价的影响,保险产品差别定价的策略是保险业产品定价之良策。而保险业只有精算技术与市场分析结合起来才能挖掘保险产品深层次的潜力。     

股票市场与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

本文在对国内外有关研究成果进行总结的基础上 ,分析了股票市场促进经济增长的作用机制 ,运用 1 994年到 2 0 0 3年的季度数据 ,实证研究了中国股票市场发展与经济增长的相关关系 ,得出了一些有意义的结论。