Exploring policy options in joint intertemporal-spatial trade models using an incomplete markets approach

In this paper we discuss the desirability of service trade liberlization in the presence of incompleteness of markets where there is both inter-spatial and intertemporal trade between countries. We use numerical simulation methods for insights and relate our discussion to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in the WTO. We interpret the absence of intertemporal trade as an absence of intermediation services provided by both domestic and foreign service providers. For simplicity, we consider extreme cases where intertemporal intermediation services can only be provided by domestic providers, so that when intertemporal trade in services is not allowed, markets are not complete. To our knowledge, this type of models is not used in the trade literature as general comparative statics results are unavailable. We first consider the liberalization of trade in financial services in an inter-spatial and intertemporal model of two countries, and we show how services liberalization can be welfare worsening in the presence of a tariff on spatial trade in goods. We show that this can hold in an artificial world with no domestic financial services provider. We compare financial service trade autarky in which there is no intermediation to financial service trade liberalization which involves costless intertemporal intermediation provided by foreign service providers. We also consider a more complex (and realistic) world where costly intermediation services can be provided by both domestic and foreign providers. This paper draws in part on material of an earlier paper, “Financial Services Trade Liberalization in A Joint Spatial Intertemporal Multi-Country Model” by Huang et al. (2004). We acknowledge the financial support from The Centre for Intentional Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Canada and from National Social Science Foundation of China (SSFC Grant 07AJL002), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant 70825003) and “Humanities and Social Science” Major Project, Chinese Ministry of Education (Grant Number 07JJD790145).     

World Interest Shocks, Capital, and the Current Account

Macroeconomic performance in many developing countries is influenced by international credit conditions. This paper considers a developing economy that faces an upward-sloping supply function of debt. It analyzes how a particular foreign shock, a world interest shock, influences such key macroeconomic variables as output, investment, the current account, and the terms of trade in both short-run and steady-state equilibrium. An intertemporal optimizing model is used to study these issues. This approach permits characterization of the intertemporal adjustment of the indebted economy, and shows that a world interest shock lowers overall economic welfare.     

财政约束与价格水平决定:FTPL的一个批判

本文在一个内生增长一般均衡货币模型中, 通过引入名义债券、实际债券、货币和物质资本, 讨论了政府财政约束与价格水平决定的关系。我们发现, 在平衡增长路径上均衡通货膨胀率完全由货币增长率决定, 政府跨时预算约束方程只是个恒等式。如果价格水平财政理论(FiscalTheoryofPriceLevel, FTPL) 成立, 则小得可以忽略的财政扰动可以导致物价水平的巨大波动, 这是无法让人接受的; 进一步的研究发现, 问题出现的原因是FTPL将名义债券市场和其他资产市场割裂开来, 孤立地讨论了名义债券市场出清的条件, 由此认为跨时预算约束方程是一个均衡定价方程; 当将诸市场统一起来考虑时, 公众可以在货币、债券和物质资本之间进行选择, 财政当局不再是一个价格决定者, 其债券发行量成为一个内生变量, 必须服从跨时预算约束方程, 后者成为一个恒等式, 从而价格水平主要由货币当局的货币发行决定。     

Expectations and intertemporal separability in an empirical model of consumption and investment under uncertainty

An intertemporal model of consumption and investment under uncertainty is formulated, and compared with the existing literature; it is argued that an assumption of myopia is necessary for its empirical applicability. It is estimated by maximum likelihood with quarterly British data. A specification search for a satisfactory form of expectations is made, and the estimated model is compared with a static demand system. Strong intertemporal separability is formulated as a nested hypothesis, and strongly rejected by a likelihood ratio test.     

Intertemporal Choice,Saving and Investment,and Interest Rate: Contributions from a Neglected Hayekian Model

Hayek’s ‘Utility analysis and interest’ expounds a graphical model of intertemporal choice that has not received the attention it deserves. This model is important in that it can be used as a basic macroeconomic model and can therefore perform for the Austrian School the role that the Solow model plays for the standard neo-classical paradigm. This article provides an in-depth presentation of the Hayekian model, and then applies the model to key theoretical issues in macroeconomics; namely, the effects upon intertemporal equilibrium and upon the interest rate of a change in time preference, of the implementation of a technical development and of an increase in the supply of labor.     

On the Need for Gender in Dynamic Models

In this paper we emphasize the need for more theoretical research using dynamic models that include gender as a variable of analysis. We begin by summarizing some of the main observations characterizing fertility, gender, and economic growth. We then explore three types of theoretical models: one-sex dynamic, two-sex static, and two-sex dynamic. We conclude that more models of the last type – dynamic models that include gender in the analysis – are needed to analyze issues that involve both an intertemporal and a gender dimension.     

Debt Neutrality and the Infinite–Lived Representative Consumer

In this paper, we study the intertemporal equilibria of an infinite–lived representative agent model with public debt. We show that for a given path of government expenditures, there generally exists a continuum of equilibria depending on various debt policies. These equilibria are characterized by different paths of consumption and leisure. Two examples illustrate the results: in the first one consumption and leisure may converge to zero, in the second one consumption goes to infinity while leisure goes to its maximum value. In a third example with externalities à la Romer, the standard intertemporal equilibrium with zero public debt may be dominated by other intertemporal equilibria.     

Heterogeneous Households,the Distribution of Wealth,and the Laursen-Metzler Effect*

To study the effects of a terms-of-trade deterioration the paper constructs a dynamic model with heterogeneous households that maximize intertemporal utility. It shows that insofar as this shock leads to a redistribution of wealth-an outcome ignored by the literature because of the representative-agent assumption invariably adopted-it may give rise to an initial current-account deficit and nonmonotonic adjustment paths. the paper also buttresses the argument that heterogeneous-household models help explain the observed “excess smoothness” of consumption.     

Monetary Non-Neutrality and the Intertemporal Approach to the Balance of Trade: The UK Trade Balance under Bretton Woods

Previous research on the intertemporal approach is based on the standard, real model of the balance of trade. This paper outlines a more general model that allows for monetary non-neutrality, and tests the general model against a restricted version that embodies neutrality. While the empirical analysis focuses on the UK trade balance during the Bretton Woods era, the fundamental issues are of interest to more than just students of Bretton Woods.     

Ranking opportunity sets in a simple intertemporal framework

We extend the problem of ranking subsets (opportunity sets) of a set of alternatives to an intertemporal setting, whereby the agent makes a sequence of choice decisions over time. In particular, we show in a simple two-period model that an agent who satisfies five plausible axioms ranks opportunity sets in a lexicographic fashion. That is, the agent ranks opportunity sets based solely on the relative desirability of their first-period alternatives, and only if the first-period alternatives are thought equally desirable does the agent consider the second-period alternatives. We discuss this strong time-discounting result and the role of the axioms, and also show that the popular “independence” axioms employed in the existing “static” literature are inconsistent with some reasonable axioms regarding intertemporal choice.      

Superneutrality, indeterminacy and endogenous growth

In this paper, we explore the possibility of having money as a source of indeterminacy in endogenous growth models. We adopt the simple Ak model of endogenous growth to be the main analytical vehicle whose balanced growth paths do not display local indeterminacy. Money is introduced via either a general cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint or a pecuniary transactions costs (PTC) technology. It is shown that local indeterminacy of the dynamics is due to the presence of an intertemporal substitution effect on capital accumulation that works against and dominates the conventional inflation effect of Tobin [1965, Money and economical growth. Econometrica 33(4), Part 2, 671]. If money is growth-rate superneutral, then the intertemporal substitution effect is absent so that local indeterminacy cannot occur. Finally, the strength of the intertemporal substitution effect depends positively on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption.     

MULTIATTRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY,INTERTEMPORAL UTILITY,AND CORRELATION AVERSION

Convenient assumptions about qualitative properties of the intertemporal utility function have generated counterintuitive implications for the relationship between atemporal risk aversion and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If the intertemporal utility function is additively separable, then the latter two concepts are the inverse of each other. We review a theoretical specification with a long lineage in the literature on multi‐attribute utility and use this theoretical structure to guide the design of a series of experiments that allow us to identify and estimate intertemporal correlation aversion. Our results show that subjects are correlation averse over lotteries with intertemporal income profiles.     

Intertemporal consumption with directly measured welfare functions and subjective expectations

Euler equation estimation of intertemporal consumption models requires many, often unverifiable assumptions. These include assumptions on expectations and preferences. We aim at reducing some of these requirements by using direct subjective information on respondents’ preferences and expectations. The results suggest that individually measured welfare functions and expectations have predictive power for the variation in consumption across households. Furthermore, estimates of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution based on the estimated welfare functions are plausible and of a similar order of magnitude as other estimates found in the literature. The model favored by the data only requires cross-section data for estimation.     

Markov-perfect industrial dynamics with technological path dependence

A game-theoretic intertemporal model of industrial competition is proposed where firms choose their optimal technological strategies as part of some (Markov Perfect) equilibrium with potential entry and exit. The main novel feature of the approach is that technological change is modelled along a directed graph of technologies, which permits a rigorous consideration of key issues such as technological gaps, switching costs and gradual innovation. The paper provides some sufficient conditions for existence and ergodicity of the equilibrium, partially studies the induced population dynamics, and explores a number of other issues by means of numerical simulations.     

The endowment effect and intertemporal choice: a laboratory investigation

We present a laboratory investigation of intertemporal choice (i.e., elicited discount rates) allowing for the influence of the endowment effect. Consistent with the previous literature, we hypothesize that the endowment effect in an intertemporal choice setting results in substantially higher discount rates relative to when individuals treat the resources in question as found money. Our results support this hypothesis and our experimental design provides a new protocol for conducting choice experiments wherein the endowment effect is an important determinant of behaviour.     

Robust chaos in dynamic optimization models

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the (theoretical) importance of chaos as a phenomenon occurring in dynamic optimization problems. The intertemporal models we focus on are specified by a standard aggregative production function, an immediate return function depending on current consumption, capital input and a taste parameter, and a discount factor.We interpret “chaos” as a situation in which the Liapounov exponent of the relevant dynamical system is positive. This notion of chaos is related to the concept of “unpredictability” as measured by the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy.In the family of intertemporal models, indexed by the taste parameter (with values lying in a closed interval), chaos is considered to be an “unimportant” phenomenon, if the set of parameter values for which chaos occurs is of Lebesgue measure zero.We identify a family of dynamic optimization models, for which the optimal transition functions are represented by the quadratic family of maps. Relying on the mathematical literature on the robustness of chaos for this family of maps, we conclude that chaos cannot be considered to be an unimportant phenomenon in dynamic optimization models.     

Intertemporal Permit Trading for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This paper integrates two themes in the intertemporal permitliterature through the construction of an intertemporal bankingsystem for a pollutant that creates both stock and flow damages. A permit banking system for the special case of a pollutant thatonly causes stock damages is also developed. This latter,simpler case corresponds roughly to the greenhouse gas emissionreduction regime proposed by the U.S. Department of State as ameans of fulfilling the U.S. commitment to the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. This paper shows that environmentalregulators can achieve the socially optimal level of emissionsand output through time by setting the correct total sum ofallowable emissions, and specifying the correct intertemporaltrading ratio for banking and borrowing. For the case ofgreenhouse gases, we show that the optimal growth rate of permitprices, and therefore the optimal intertemporal trading rate, hasthe closed-form solution equal to the ratio of current marginalstock damages to the discounted future value of marginal stockdamages less the decay rate of emissions in the atmosphere. Given a non-optimal negotiated emission path we then derive apermit banking system that has the potential to lower net socialcosts by adjusting the intertemporal trading ratio taking intoaccount the behavior of private agents. We use a simplenumerical simulation model to illustrate the potential gains fromvarious possible banking systems.     

Impact of fiscal policy in an intertemporal CGE model for South Africa

This paper uses an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model to investigate the consequences of an expansive fiscal policy designed to accelerate economic growth in South Africa. A key contribution is made to existing literature on the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in African economies. To the best of our knowledge, no published study has empirically analyzed the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the context of an open, middle-income sub-Saharan African economy like South Africa using an integrated intertemporal model with such disaggregated production structure. The paper shows that an expansive fiscal policy would have a temporary impact on gross domestic product (GDP) but would translate into higher debt relative to GDP. Using increased taxation to finance the additional spending would lessen this impact but would also negatively affect macroeconomic variables. Increased investment spending would improve long-term GDP, under any financing scheme, and would decrease debt-to-GDP ratio as well as deficit-to-GDP ratio. This outcome is driven by the positive impact infrastructure has on total factor productivity. Sensitivity analysis shows that these conclusions are qualitatively similar for wide values of the elasticity of the total factor productivity to infrastructure. In fact, the conclusions hold even when comparing different financing schemes.     

Relative consumption, economic growth, and taxation

This paper studies the influence of consumption externalities in the Ramsey model. In contrast to the recent literature, a quite general specification of preferences is used and the concept of the effective intertemporal elasticity of substitution is introduced. We give conditions for the observational equivalence between economies with consumption externalities and externality-free economies. An additional key result is that there exist several types of instantaneous utility functions in which the decentralized solution coincides with the socially planned one in spite of the presence of consumption externalities. The conditions for optimal taxation are also derived.     

Intertemporal substitution and the liquidity effect in a sticky price model

The liquidity effect, defined as a decrease in nominal interest rates in response to a monetary expansion, is a major stylized fact of the business cycle. This paper first confirms that, with separable preferences, a low degree of intertemporal substitution in consumption is a necessary condition for the existence of the liquidity effect. In contrast to this result, in a model with non-separable preferences and capital accumulation it takes an implausibly high elasticity of intertemporal substitution to produce a liquidity effect. The robustness of these results to alternative degrees of nominal rigidities, capital adjustment costs and stochastic monetary processes is also analysed. We conclude that price stickiness, by itself, does not guarantee the existence of a liquidity effect.