Estimation of the business cycle: A modified Hodrick-Prescott filter

Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering of (most often, seasonally adjusted) quarterly series is analysed. Some of the criticism to the filter are adressed. It is seen that, while filtering strongly affects autocorrelations, it has little effect on crosscorrelations. It is argued that the criticism that HP filtering induces a spurious cycle in the series is unwarranted. The filter, however, presents two serious drawbacks: First, poor performance at the end periods, due to the size of the revisions in preliminary estimators, and, second, the amount of noise in the cyclical signal, which seriously disturbs its interpretation. We show how the addition of two model-based features (in particular, applying the filter to the series extended with proper ARIMA forecasts and backcasts, and using as input to the filter the trend-cycle component instead of the seasonally adjusted series) can considerably improve the filter performance. Throughout the discussion, we use a computationally and analytically convenient alternative derivation of the HP filter, and illustrate the results with an example consisting of 4 Spanish economic indicators.     

Sraffa numeraire and reswitching: A note A note

The paper demonstrates that changing the numeraire from Hicks' to Sraffa's does not affect the location and, a fortiori, the number of switch points between two given techniques. This negates some recent claims to the contrary, and supports the earlier general position that the choice of numeraire has no bearing on reswitching, even though it does have a bearing on capital reversal. In the process the paper shows that the rate of growth of the economy and the marginal propensity to save also do not affect the switch points, which may thus be regarded as depending essentially on technical factors alone.     

Causality testing and sensitivity to detrending: The money-income relationship revisited

The money-income causal relationship is examined using the Hsiao (1979) causal testing method for alternative definitions of money and different detrending transformations. The results for Barbadian data suggest that each detrending transformation will induce different lag specifications in the causal regressions and that the implied causal directions are sensitive to both the definition of money and the detrending technique used. An unambiguous result, based on an examination of the components of money, is that quasi-money Granger-causes income. A recommendation of the paper is that tests for unit roots be used prior to performing the causality tests.     

Marx on entrepreneurship: A note

This paper argues that in mainstream economics the concept of entrepreneurship is imposed by the theoretical framework adopted in order to justify the source of profits. In contrast, in Marx’s analysis there is a consistent theory of profit which inevitably leads to a specific theory of entrepreneurship. (JEL: B10, B14, B21)     

Hedging effectiveness comparisons: A note

This note examines the hedging effectiveness of three hedge strategies on twenty-four commodity and financial markets. Lien (Lien, D., 2005a, The use and abuse of the hedging effectiveness measure, International Review of Financial Analysis 14, 277–282, Lien, D., 2005b, A note on the superiority of the OLS hedge ratio, Journal of Futures Markets 25, 1121–1126.) suggest that, absent from estimation errors, the minimum variance (MV) hedge ratio attains the maximum post-sample hedging effectiveness when there is no structural change across estimation and comparison samples. When comparing the MV strategy with the naïve hedge ratio, we find sufficiently strong support for the conclusion. On the other hand, driven by estimation errors, weaker support is produced when comparing MV and error correction (EC) hedge strategy.     

A note on a theorem by Professor Chow

Dhrymes (1973) pointed out an error in the determinant-minimizing algorithm worked out by Chow (1964) to obtain the Three-State Least Squares estimator. We prove that the procedure suggested by Dhrymes (1973) in this connection does not yield the 3SLS estimator either.     

Factor analysis and development: A note

In recent applications of factor analysis, the researchers have included more variables than observations in identifying the patterns of development. It is shown here that when the number of variables exceeds the number of observations in factor analysis, the derived results suffer from spuriousness.     

The Verdoorn law revisited: A note

In his Fattori che regolano lo sviluppo della produttività del lavoro Verdoorn (1949) presented empirical evidence on the constancy of the ratio of productivity growth to output growth. As a theoretical underpinning he used a neoclassical growth model. The main purpose of this paper is to emphasize that in this model the ratio is constant only in the steady state. If Verdoorn's underpinning of his law is to be correct, the steady-state assumption should be empirically tested. Some available evidence for Verdoorn's sample appears to throw doubt upon this assumption.     

Tax evasion and heuristics: A research note

The paper examines the heuristics which taxpayers use in making tax evasion decisions. The following propositions are tested in an experiment using students. First, the taxpaper's own level of evasion will be positively related to what he perceives as the levels of evasion by others. Second, taxpayers who have been audited are more likely to assess the probability of audit as higher and therefore decrease their levels of evasion. The experimental results fail to support the first proposition but do support the second suggesting the presence of an ‘availability’ effect.     

American institutionalism at Chicago: A documentary note

Abstract

This note provides new evidence concerning American institutionalism at Chicago during the 1920s and 1930s.     

Less than single dividend taxation: A note

The taxation in Norway of corporate and dividend income makes it attractive for individuals in high tax brackets to earn their income through corporations, as dividends. This kind of incentive has been assumed in the literature to be non-existing because of its adverse effects.     

Unfair incentives: A behavioural note on sharecropping

We conducted a laboratory‐in‐the‐field experiment with real‐life tenants in Ethiopia to test the incentive effects of fixed wage, sharecropping, fixed rent, and ownership contracts. The experimental task resembles a common process in agricultural production. The sharecropping contract is a piece rate scheme framed as a profit‐sharing agreement. Sharecropping output was about 12 percent smaller than the fixed rent output. Surprisingly, it is statistically indistinguishable from the fixed wage output, despite substantial piece rates. This effect is driven by real‐life sharecroppers. Their sharecropping output was smaller than that of non‐sharecroppers, especially in a region where a controversial land reform took place. We argue that our subjects dislike sharecropping contracts because of the unfair profit sharing and the disputed allocation of land. Fairness concerns, therefore, may be another impediment to efficiency under the sharecropping contract.     

Multiplicative habit formation and consumption: A note

A multiplicative form of the habit term in the utility function has some undesirable properties if the habit function is itself still additive (Wendner, 2003). A geometric form for the way the stock of habit accumulates can resolve these shortcomings.