The effect of government highway spending on road users' congestion costs

Policymakers attempt to reduce the growth of congestion by spending billions of dollars annually on our road system. We evaluate this policy by estimating the determinants of congestion costs for motorists, trucking operations, and shipping firms. We find that, on average, one dollar of highway spending in a given year reduces the congestion costs to road users only eleven cents in that year. We also find that even if the allocation of spending were optimized to minimize congestion costs that it still is not a cost-effective way to reduce congestion. We conclude the evidence strengthens the case for road pricing.     

The fundamental law of highway congestion revisited: Evidence from national expressways in Japan

The fundamental law of highway congestion states that when congested, the travel speed on an expanded expressway reverts to its previous level before the capacity expansion. In this paper, we propose a theory that generalizes this statement and finds that if there exists a coverage effect, that is, the effect of longer road length on traffic conditional on capacity, then the new equilibrium travel speed could be lower than its previous level. Given the fundamental law, the theory predicts that the elasticity of traffic to road capacity is at least 1. We estimate this elasticity for national expressways in Japan and test this prediction. Using the planned national expressway extension as an exogenous source of variation for capacity expansion, we obtain elasticity estimates ranging between 1.24 and 1.34, consistent with the prediction of our theory. We further investigate the sources of the larger-than-unity elasticity and find that the coverage effect plays a critical role, compared with the effect due to lane expansion.     

A new method for measuring congestion in data envelopment analysis

In data envelopment analysis (DEA), there are two principal methods for identifying and measuring congestion: Those of Färe et al. [Färe R, Grosskopf S. When can slacks be used to identify congestion. An answer to W. W. Cooper, L. Seiford, J. Zhu. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2001;35:1–10] and Cooper et al. [Cooper WW, Deng H, Huang ZM, Li SX. A one-model approach to congestion in data envelopment analysis. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2002;36:231–8]. In the present paper, we focus on the latter work in proposing a new method that requires considerably less computation. Then, by proving a selected theorem, we show that our proposed methodology is indeed equivalent to that of Cooper et al.     

A model for dual health care market with congestion differentiation

The French market for specialist physician care has a dual legal structure: physicians must exclusively work in sector 1 and charge regulated fees or in sector 2, where they can freely set their fees. Patient out-of-pocket payments in sector 2 are partially covered by private insurance. The primary differentiating factor between both sectors is the number of patients per specialist, which in turn directly affects the overall quality of the service provided. We built an equilibrium model to analyze both specialists' decisions about which sector to work in, and patients' choice of physician and therefore sector. More specifically, the model allowed us to study the effect of changes in prices and economy-wide patient-to-specialist ratios on profits and patients' utility associated with the services provided in each sector.     

Second-best policies for congestion externalities

This is the third in a series of three articles on the topic of congestion externalities. We use an urban general-equilibrium model to test the efficiency of several second-best policies for congestion externalities. The most efficient second-best policy is a program of land-use controls; the program generates a welfare gain of $3.38 per household per week. A unit tax on commuting is a less efficient policy, with a welfare gain of $1.15.     

A bathtub model of downtown traffic congestion

In standard economic models of traffic congestion, traffic flow does not fall under heavily congested conditions. But this is counter to experience, especially in the downtown areas of major cities during rush hour. This paper analyzes a bathtub model of downtown rush-hour traffic congestion that builds on ideas put forward by William Vickrey. Water flowing into the bathtub corresponds to cars entering the traffic stream, water flowing out of the bathtub to cars exiting from it, and the height of water in the bathtub to traffic density. Velocity is negatively related to density, and outflow is proportional to the product of density and velocity. Above a critical density, outflow falls as density increases (traffic jam situations). When demand is high relative to capacity, applying an optimal time-varying toll generates benefits that may be considerably larger than those obtained from standard models and that exceed the toll revenue collected.     

A generalized focused information criterion for GMM

This paper proposes a criterion for simultaneous generalized method of moments model and moment selection: the generalized focused information criterion (GFIC). Rather than attempting to identify the “true” specification, the GFIC chooses from a set of potentially misspecified moment conditions and parameter restrictions to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) of a user‐specified target parameter. The intent of the GFIC is to formalize a situation common in applied practice. An applied researcher begins with a set of fairly weak “baseline” assumptions, assumed to be correct, and must decide whether to impose any of a number of stronger, more controversial “suspect” assumptions that yield parameter restrictions, additional moment conditions, or both. Provided that the baseline assumptions identify the model, we show how to construct an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the asymptotic MSE to select over these suspect assumptions: the GFIC. We go on to provide results for postselection inference and model averaging that can be applied both to the GFIC and various alternative selection criteria. To illustrate how our criterion can be used in practice, we specialize the GFIC to the problem of selecting over exogeneity assumptions and lag lengths in a dynamic panel model, and show that it performs well in simulations. We conclude by applying the GFIC to a dynamic panel data model for the price elasticity of cigarette demand.     

Contributions to nonparametric generalized failure rate function estimation

For a specified distribution functionG with densityg, and unknown distribution functionF with densityf, the generalized failure rate function (x)=f(x)/gG ^–1 F(x) may be estimated by replacingf andF byf _n and , wheref _n is an empirical density function based on a sample of sizen from the distribution functionF, and . Under regularity conditions we show and, under additional restrictions whereC is a subset ofR and _n. Moreover, asymptotic normality is derived and the Berry-Esséen type bound is shown to be related to a theorem which concerns the sum of i.i.d. random variables. The order boundO(n^–1/2+c _n ^1/2 ) is established under mild conditions, wherec _n is a sequence of positive constants related tof _n and tending to 0 asn.Research was supported in part by the Army, Navy and Air Force under Office of Naval Research contract No. N00014-76-C-0608. AMS 1970 subject classifications. Primary 62G05. Secondary 60F15.     

Road congestion: A reconsideration of pricing theory

In this paper, the effect of congestion tolls upon the pattern of traffic flows is examined. Congestion tolls influence the individual commuter's decision of when to make a trip, inducing him to travel at less congested times. When all commuters are taken together, congestion tolls and the individual consumers' decisions lead to an efficient reorganization of traffic flows relative to a non-toll situation. In fact, for the same total number of commuters, per person costs of travel including the toll may decline with the imposition of tolls and efficient reorganization of traffic flows.     

基于博弈论的城市道路交通拥挤收费分析

针对城市道路交通拥挤不断加剧,交通供需不平衡矛盾日益尖锐的现实问题,在分析城市道路交通拥挤收费基本原理的基础上,应用博弈论的分析方法,针对交通出行车与交通管理者之间的拥挤收费进行了博弈分析,以期对我国实施该政策具有借鉴意义。     

MBTI性格类型与旅行社部门职能岗位的匹配研究

文章首先对MBTI理论的国内外研究情况进行了简单阐述,接着对互联网+时代背景下旅行社各部门的职能岗位进行了较为全面的解析,最后,在构建岗位与性格类型匹配理论模型的基础之上,分析了旅行社各部门职能岗位与人才性格特征的匹配状况。     

A review of DEA methods to identify and measure congestion

Congestion is an economic phenomenon of overinvestment that occurs when excessive inputs decrease the maximally possible outputs. Although decision-makers are unlikely to decrease outputs by increasing inputs, congestion is widespread in reality. Identifying and measuring congestion can help decision-makers detect the problem of overinvestment. This paper reviews the development of the concept of congestion in the framework of data envelopment analysis (DEA), which is a widely accepted method for identifying and measuring congestion. In this paper, six main congestion identification and measurement methods are analysed through several numerical examples. We investigate the ideas of these methods, the contributions compared with the previous methods, and the existing shortcomings. Based on our analysis, we conclude that existing congestion identification and measurement methods are still inadequate. Three problems are anticipated for further study: maintaining the consistency between congestion and overinvestment, considering joint weak disposability assumption between desirable outputs and undesirable outputs, and quantifying the degree of congestion.     

A generalized randomized response technique

To eliminate a major source of bias in surveys of human populations resulting from respondents refusal to cooparate in cases where a question of sensitive nature is involved, the idea of “randomized response” was introduced by Warner (1965). In this paper, an alternative randomized response technique is presented which improves upon the pioneering work of Warner (1965). The procedure includes Warner's method as a special case for a specific choice of the parameters. In addition, a generalization of the proposed method is presented.     

A generalized lot sizing model for the process cycling problem

Most scheduling/lot sizing models for the single-machine problem assume that aggregate demand equals aggregate production; and that backorders are to be avoided. Where working inventories are low, the scheduler may wish to avoid short production runs and willingly incur some backorder penalties so as to increase the length of production runs and reduce setup costs per unit of time. The model proposed here identifies optimal lot sizes with respect to the backorder/setup cost relationships. Use of the model will result in an optimally balanced inventory even when aggregate inventory levels are changing.     

A generalized non-linear forecasting model for limited overs international cricket

This paper proposes a generalized non-linear forecasting model (GNLM) for forecasting the number of runs remaining to be scored in an innings of cricket. The proposed model takes into account the numbers of overs left and wickets lost. The GNLFM can be used to build a model for any format of limited-overs international cricket. However, the purpose of its use in this paper is for building a forecasting model for projecting second innings total runs in Twenty-20 International cricket. Our model makes it possible to estimate the runs differential of the two competing teams whilst the match is in progress. The runs differential can be used not only to gauge the closeness of a game, but also to estimate the ratings of cricket teams that take into account the margin of victory. Furthermore, the well-known original Duckworth/Lewis (DL) model and the McHale/Asif version of it for revising targets in interrupted matches are special cases of our proposed generalized non-linear forecasting model.     

A generalized upper bounded technique for a linear fractional program

An algorithm is developed for solving a special structured linear-fractional program. The structure under study hasM+L constraints equations,L of which have the property that each variable has at most one nonzero coefficient. The proposed method is similar toDantzig andVan Slyke and, from the basis, a working basis of orderM is derived and is used for pivoting, pricing and inversion which for largeL can be significantly lower order than that of the original system.     

城市出行信息环境分层规划方法

认为出行信息环境的服务水平是影响城市交通效率的重要因素之一,有效的出行信息传递能够显著提高路网的整体效率。系统分析了我国城市出行信息环境现状,在出行信息需求分析的基础上,建立了包含城市路网、交通方式与路线三个层面的出行信息环境分层规划方法,并提出了具体的出行信息环境优化对策。     

A new bivariate generalized Poisson distribution

In this paper, a new bivariate generalized Poisson distribution (GPD) that allows any type of correlation is defined and studied. The marginal distributions of the bivariate model are the univariate GPDs. The parameters of the bivariate distribution are estimated by using the moment and maximum likelihood methods. Some test statistics are discussed and one numerical data set is used to illustrate the applications of the bivariate model.     

Non-jointness and scope economies in the multiproduct symmetric generalized McFadden cost function

The multiproduct symmetric generalized McFadden cost function is increasingly prominent in empirical production analysis. Researchers should be aware that the scope for imposing and testing non-jointness in this model is limited. In the general version of the model non-jointness requires the non-testable maintained hypothesis of similar (in a sense we define) single-output production technologies, a maintained hypothesis for which there is not normally any basis. The apparent imposition and testing of non-jointness must be qualified accordingly. The attempt to impose non-jointness and global separability simultaneously necessarily imposes constant returns to scale and the implication that outputs are identical up to a scalar multiple. In this special case the model therefore effectively describes merely the production of a single output, and in this sense is only trivially multiproduct.     

Estimating a generalized correlation coefficient for a generalized bivariate probit model

In this paper we consider semiparametric estimation of a generalized correlation coefficient in a generalized bivariate probit model. The generalized correlation coefficient provides a simple summary statistic measuring the relationship between the two binary decision processes in a general framework. Our semiparametric estimation procedure consists of two steps, combining semiparametric estimators for univariate binary choice models with the method of maximum likelihood for the bivariate probit model with nonparametrically generated regressors. The estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimator performs well in our simulation study.