中国城市住宅市场的结构差异性分析

市场价商品房、经济适用住房和廉租房构成了目前中国城市住宅市场的供应体系.依据中国30个主要城市的房地产开发统计数据,选择吸纳率作为评价住宅市场供需均衡状态的指标,利用固定影响变截距模型,重点研究了商品房和经济适用住房供给结构的城市差异性.研究发现,在城市住宅市场中,经济适用住房市场和商品房市场具有很强的相关性.作为具有政府资助性质的经济适用住房建设,存在典型的地域性特征,其政策的设定和实施会对整个住宅市场产生影响,地方政府应在利用比较全面的住宅市场指标体系进行综合分析基础上,制定适合本地的经济适用住房政策.     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

The Macro Impacts of Public Resold Dwellings on Private Housing Prices in Singapore

In Singapore, the public resale housing market is an actively traded public owner occupier housing market succeeding to the heavily regulated new public owner occupier housing sector, in which the new public housing units are sold at a heavily subsidized price. The resale market was originally aimed at facilitating consumer housing choices and harnessing the greater efficiency of market mechanism in the delivery of public housing. However, it also became a vehicle for many Singaporeans to upgrade to private housing. This raises the concerns of its impacts on the private housing market as well as the equitable distribution of public resources. This paper first analytically reviews the retrospect of Singapore housing system, then empirically studies the impacts of public resold dwellings on the private housing prices, probing the links between the public resale market and the private housing market as well as the implications on the equitable distribution of public resources.     

Housing investment: What makes it so volatile? Theory and evidence from OECD countries

This paper explains how mortgage market liberalization can introduce greater volatility in the housing market, which is a stylized fact documented from OECD countries, with a DSGE model where households face a credit constraint and housing is used as collateral. The housing collateral constraint creates a link between the housing market and borrowing capacity, a link that amplifies the response of housing demand to technology shocks and strengthens in economies with more liberalized mortgage markets.     

政府与市场关系视角下住房问题治理对策研究

城市住房领域政府与市场关系的研究,对有效解决我国城市住房问题具有重要理论价值和政策含义。在多元经济学范式下分析政府与市场的关系,结合住房和住房市场的特性,探寻社会相互作用的两种基本规则：市场与政府解决住房问题的边界,构建了住房领域政府与市场关系的理论分析框架。在该框架下,探讨我国城市住房问题求解的思路及对策：完善住房市场、健全住房保障体系,发挥“第三方”的作用,促进我国住房市场健康持续发展。     

Heterogeneous expectations,boom-bust housing cycles,and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach

We combine a standard stock-flow housing market model, incorporating explicit relationships between house prices, the housing stock, and the rent level, with a parsimonious expectation formation scheme of housing market investors, reflecting an evolving mix of extrapolative and regressive expectation rules. The model results in a two-dimensional discrete-time nonlinear dynamical system. Based on realistic parameters, the model is able to generate endogenous boom-bust housing market dynamics with lasting periods of overvaluation and overbuilding. We thus exploit our model to investigate how real forces, in particular supply conditions, interact with expectations-driven housing market fluctuations.     

住宅房地产市场系统的协同演化模型

住宅房地产市场的本质表明,住宅房地产市场系统为一个开放的经济系统,其内部因素存在着各种外在和内在的关系,本文建立住宅房地产市场的协同演化方程,并得出住宅房地产市场投资额为住宅房地产市场系统的序参量,在自组织理论应用上具有一定的创新意义;再者,借鉴国内外住宅房地产市场的研究角度和方法,建立了南京住宅房地产市场系统的演化仿真模型,取得了很好的仿真效果。     

美国住房租赁市场运行机制探讨及借鉴

美国拥有发达的私人住房租赁市场和公共住房租赁市场,其关于住房租赁市场的法律制度、税收体系、房租补贴政策和完善的政府监管体制等方面均值得我国借鉴。研究表明,支撑美国住房租赁市场的因素主要有供给因素、需求因素和政府对租赁市场的有效管理和规范。尽管在住房消费文化和土地制度环境等方面我国住房市场与美国住房市场差异显著,但美国发展与规范住房租赁市场的经验对培育和发展我国住房租赁市场仍然具有重要的政策借鉴价值。     

关于提高住宅有效购买力的几点思考

随着我国住房制度改革的推进 ,房地产业面临着前所未有的发展机遇。然而 ,几年过去了 ,我们却不得不面对住宅潜在需求和有效需求不足的尖锐矛盾。产生这一现象的原因是多方面的 ,笔者认为最主要的原因在于商品住宅价格偏高、住房金融市场发展缓慢以及住房交易市场不健全三个方面。因此 ,要使住宅产业真正成为消费热点和新的经济增长点 ,就必须努力降低现有商品住宅价格、加快住房金融市场的发展以及完善住房交易市场     

美国住房租赁市场运行机制探讨及借鉴

美国拥有发达的私人住房租赁市场和公共住房租赁市场,其关于住房租赁市场的法律制度、税收体系、房租补贴政策和完善的政府监管体制等方面均值得我国借鉴。研究表明,支撑美国住房租赁市场的因素主要有供给因素、需求因素和政府对租赁市场的有效管理和规范。尽管在住房消费文化和土地制度环境等方面我国住房市场与美国住房市场差异显著,但美国发展与规范住房租赁市场的经验对培育和发展我国住房租赁市场仍然具有重要的政策借鉴价值。     

我国新建住宅长期供给价格弹性估算——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

大多数住宅模型和政策分析,都直接或间接依赖于住宅供给价格弹性的估计值：为了应对市场需求冲击,是多供给住房还是提高住宅价格？基于Mayo（1981）构建的模型,估算了我国35个主要大中型城市的新建住宅供给价格弹性。根据流量模型,2000-2007年我国的新建住宅价格弹性系数在4-11之间,2008到2013年的价格弹性在5-13之间。而存量调整模型得到了截然不同的估算结果：2008-2013年我国的新建住宅供给价格弹性在1-6之间,更精确的估算出了我国新建住宅供给市场的价格弹性。     

住宅市场与城市经济互动机理研究综述与展望

认为住宅市场与城市经济体系之间的双向作用关系,是目前在理论研究和实践中亟需解决的热点问题;建立了住宅市场与城市经济互动机理的研究框架,并分别介绍了城市经济对住宅市场的影响效应和住宅市场对城市经济的反向作用机制近期的研究成果;依据我国目前该领域的研究现状,提出了在我国进行住宅市场与城市经济互动机理研究的建议.     

List price and sales prices of residential properties during booms and busts

This paper investigates the relationship between the list and sale price of residential properties over the housing cycle. In down or normal markets the list price generally exceeds the sales price; however, when the housing market is strong, homes sell for more than their list price. This observation is not consistent with the assumptions made in the standard model of home sellers’ search behavior. We consider alternative models. In one, sellers set list prices based on their expectations of future changes in sales prices and the arrival rate of buyers; however, demand shocks occur. This model partially explains our data from the Belfast, U.K. housing market, but it fails to predict the list to sales price ratio during a sustained housing boom. We next describe a model where sellers’ endogenously select their search mechanism depending on the strength of the housing market. We find support for the conjecture that sellers switch to an auction-like model during housing booms. There also is evidence that during a downturn in the market, sellers’ list prices are sticky.     

在全面深化改革背景下发展住房租赁市场

我国住房租赁市场的发展严重滞后于住房交易市场,大力推进住房租赁市场的建设,不仅有利于形成住房梯级消费,还有助于丰富、完善房地产市场体系和市场结构,从广度和深度上推进市场化改革。通过对租买选择无差异、租金和投资关系的分析以及信息不对称与福利经济学理论的阐述,在借鉴国外住房租赁市场成功发展经验的基础上,从加强房地产市场体系与制度建设、多元化的市场供给、市场平台的搭建、市场环境的营造、市场监管等方面对推进我国住房租赁市场的建设提出对策建议。     

Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations

This study examines the role of households’ expectations in predicting the housing boom–bust cycles in the United States. It incorporates two nonlinear features of housing price dynamics: a threshold co-movement between households’ expectations and housing price growth and a structural break in their interrelation. It uses the monthly good-time-to-buy (GTTB) index as a proxy for households’ expectations about the U.S. housing market, and employs the structural break threshold vector autoregression (SBTVAR) to specify breakpoints in housing market dynamics during the recent decades. The findings indicate that shifts in interactions between households’ expectations and housing price growth are synchronous with the recent housing boom–bust cycles. The SBTVAR framework outperforms other models as it captures more of the housing market's unique dynamic characteristics. The GTTB index, which governs expectation regime-switching patterns, is able to signal the recent housing bust three periods in advance.     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

房产税对房产市场影响的实证研究——上海模式和重庆模式的比较

文章首先运用HP滤波的方式分析了沪渝两地房产税对新房和二手房在价格和成交量上的影响,发现上海房地产市场对房产税的的征收反应更为理性,影响效果更好,但两地区新房和二手房市场的反映都存在差异;此外,利用房价对数模型,发现房产税都能有效的影响两地的房价,但由于影响两地房价的因素有很大的差异,效率并不一样,上海地区房产税每增加1%,房价将下降0.553%,重庆地区房产税每增加1%,房价将下降0.041%。因此国家需区别对待新房和二手房市场,并且因地制宜,推广不同的房产税模式。     

Wealth effect and investor sentiment

This paper investigated the relationship between the U.S. stock and housing markets as well as their influence on the wealth effect of consumption and found that the stock market sentiment index can explain changes in the wealth effect. The empirical results indicate that these two markets exert a wealth effect on consumption. The estimation results of the Markov-switching model indicate two states: a state in which the stock market influences its coexistence with the housing market and a state in which the housing and stock markets are unrelated. Public optimism regarding stock market investments affects the probability of transitioning between these states.     

The determinants of homebuilder stock price exposure to lumber: Production cost versus housing demand

We study the economic linkage between homebuilder stock market performance and commodity futures market information on a major component of building materials—lumber. The price of lumber plays a dual role in determining homebuilder profits: it represents a production input cost and serves as a future housing demand indicator. Using all US publicly listed homebuilder stocks, we show that the housing demand effect dominates the builder–lumber relationship. This effect is robust even after we control for the Federal Housing Finance Association (FHFA) housing price index (HPI). Our results further indicate that the slope of the lumber futures curve serves as a cross-market signal of future housing demand and thus of homebuilder stock market performance.     

Testing the efficiency of the Norwegian housing market

The question of whether or not the housing market is efficient is posed by an increasing number of economists, policymakers, homebuyers, and homesellers. This article tests the efficiency hypothesis on data from the housing market in Oslo over the period 1991–2002, employing the Case–Shiller time-structure test on a repeat-sales house price index and returns to housing. We demonstrate that both the repeat-sales house price index and returns contain time structure and that the housing market is characterized by inefficiencies. We also find, surprisingly, that the housing market consistently yields higher appreciation at lower volatility than the stock market over the period.