对中国农业信贷风险问题的探究

农业信贷高风险的特性从很大程度上制约了中国农业信贷作用的发挥,本文从信息不对称的角度分析了信贷风险的成因,剖析了中国农业信贷中的风险问题,并尝试提出了三种解决这一问题的模式。     

Credit Risk Models and Agricultural Lending

Credit risk models are developed and used to estimate capital requirements for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Capital Accord. The study uses credit value-at-risk methods to calculate probability of default, loss given default, and expected and unexpected losses. Two applied models, CreditMetrics and Moody's KMV , are estimated using farm financial data. The results show that the necessary capital for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Accord varies substantially depending on the riskiness and granularity of the portfolio.     

Credit Risk Assessment and the Opportunity Costs of Loan Misclassification

This paper investigates the opportunity costs of loan misclassification in credit risk assessment, and develops a model that directly incorporates the opportunity costs of loan misclassification into the risk assessment criteria. The performance of this model is assessed by comparing the empirical results with the results of the logit credit scoring model using data provided by the Farm Credit Corporation of Canada. Results indicate that if both the models make a Type I and Type II error with a $1-million loan, the expected costs of error would be $600 and $6, 500 less, respectively, in the cost minimization model compared with the logit model. The expected lenders's profit for a $1-million loan would be $17, 000 more in cost minimization model compared with the logit model. The cost minimization model performed better than the logit model, both in prediction accuracy and also in reducing the costs associated with the errors in classification.     

林权抵押贷款信用风险形成机理分析

文章以某金融机构在福建省三明市和南平市2006～2010年林权抵押贷款数据进行分析,得出林业政策是林权抵押贷款信用风险的重要成因。运用期权理论、还款能力假说及信息不对称理论,指出林业政策不完善可能影响抵押林木资产安全性、约束林木资产流动性、加剧银行与借款人间信息不对称,继而引发借款人理性违约、被迫违约和故意违约。     

林权抵押贷款信用风险管理探析

通过研究林权抵押贷款管理相关规章制度以及福建省林权抵押贷款业务操作流程,分析了林权抵押贷款信用风险管理的模式、特点及存在问题。研究认为金融机构建立了林权抵押贷款全流程管理模式;林权抵押贷款信用风险管理特点是"银政"合作的评估机制、"银政保"合作的森林保险模式与"银政合作"的反担保机制;存在的主要问题是贷款审查流于形式、信用评级粗放与贷款合约设计苛刻等。     

Credit Risk and the Demand for Agricultural Loans

This paper uses the lender–borrower relationship to provide insight into the impirical estimation of loan demand/contract curves for agricultural loans. Loan demand is shown to be determined partly by lenders'willingness to provide debt. The implicit solution to the loan contract curve in the lender–borrower relationship is derived from the cumulative probability distribution function of loan losses, which is the same measure used as the dependent variable in credit scoring models. Consequently, empirical estimation of loan demand can be obtained from credit scoring models. This paper presents the theory and then provides loan demand estimates and elasticities using Farm Credit Corporation cross-sectional and time-series data. Empirical estimates indicate the possibility of a backward-bending loan demand curve, which may indicate some credit ationing in agriculture.     

林业收储在林权抵押贷款信用风险控制中作用研究

研究采用担保理论,通过实地考察福建省林业收储运作情况获取资料,基于控制林权抵押贷款信用风险的视角研究林业收储的作用;指出林权是林权抵押贷款关键的信用风险因素,但是,存在安全性与流动性风险等问题;介绍了林业收储运作流程并讨论了林业收储控制林权抵押贷款信用风险的路径,认为林业收储降低了抵押林权的真实性与变现性风险;指出林业收储存在过于依赖财政拨款、规模较小与缺乏合理的保值增值机制等局限性,林业收储无法从根本上化解林权抵押贷款中尚存在的抵押林权的安全性、流动性等风险;提出引入社会资本,建立政府财政收购机制,优化林权抵押贷款生态环境等建议。     

农业发展银行信贷风险防范机制浅析与评价

本文重点分析我国农业发展银行政策性信贷风险的现状及其成因，并在政策调整、制度建设、运行机制完善、管理措施加强等方面提出相应的改革措施，以推进农业发展银行的规范运作。     

基于KMV模型的农业上市公司信用风险实证分析

本文利用KMV模型,对我国四家农业类上市公司6年的股票价格进行违约距离的实证计算和分析,确定了适合我国农业上市公司的预期违约率(Expected Default Frequency)计算公式。实证结果表明,KMV模型的灵敏度和预测能力较好,能为银行和投资者预测、揭示农业类上市公司信用风险。     

An Evaluation of Farm Financial Benchmarks and Loan Success/Failure: The Case of the Agricultural Credit Corporation of Saskatchewan

The use of various financial, economic and efficiency indicators in predicting loan successes and failures is common in agricultural lending. It is well known that financial ratios work well only when based on carefully and consistently prepared financial statements and matched against carefully selected and homogenous groups. This study uses a logit analysis to select 20 variables out of a total of 59 candidates, resulting in a 93% prediction rate. While the logit model identifies a number of important relationships, most traditional financial ratios fail to explain loan success; only one financial ratio — the Current Ratio — is significant and is included in the final model. Of the number of possible explanations for the lack of predictive power of the other various ratios, asset valuation is a common measurement problem. Another perhaps more easily addressed problem is inconsistent and nonconformist definitions that plague the Canadian lending industry. Failure to consistently identify accrued interest or to disaggregate loan payments into interest and principal components renders many of the financial ratios based on current of long-term liabilities useless L'utilisation de divers indicateurs financiers, économiques et d'efficacité pour prédire la solvabilite des emprunteurs est courante en matière de crédit agricole. Chacun sait que les ratios financiers ne fonctionnent bien que lorsqu'Us sont basés sur les états financiers soigneusement et régulièrement preparés et confiés à des groupes homogènes choisis avec soin. L'étude a recours à une analyse logit pour extraire, parmi un total de 59, 20 variables qui ont donne un taux de prédiction de 93%. Bien que le modèle logit ait fait apparaitre un certain nombre de relations importantes, la plupart des ratios financiers traditionnels étaient impuissantsà expliquer la solvabilite édes emprunteurs. Un seul ratio, le ratio courant, s'est revile significatifet il a ete inclus dans le modele definitif Parmi les explications du peu de valeur de prediction des autres ratios, l'evaluation des actifs est reconnue comme un problème de mesure général. Un autre problème, peut-être plus facile â corriger, est le manque de cohêrence et de conformité des définitions appliquées au secteur du crédit au Canada. Faute de pouvoir identifier de façon cohérente I'intérêt accumulé ou de pouvoir séparer les remboursements d'emprunt en intérêts et en capital, un bon nombre de ratios financiers basés sur la dette à court ou à long lerme sont sans utilité     

Agricultural Credit Subsidies and Farmland Values in Canada

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of farm credit subsidies on the value of farmland in Canada. The price-components model based on the capitalization principle is developed and estimated using the pooled data from four selected provinces (Quebec, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) from 1972 to 1991. The results show that increases (decreases) in interest subsidies are expected to increase (decrease) farmland and building values. However, the short-term impact is estimated to be small. The regional analysis shows that the abolition of interest subsidies across the country is likely to have a relatively higher impact on land and building values in Quebec than in the prairie provinces.     

Reinsuring Agricultural Risk

This paper develops a basic economic model for evaluating the critical factors affecting crop insurer risks and for computing reinsurance premiums. The model shows how insurer risks and returns are determined by the individual yield risks of insureds, loading factors, administrative costs, buffer accounts and, importantly, the distribution of insureds across crop types and crop growing regions. Based on these factors, an approach toward computing actuarial reinsurance premiums is presented, with examples.
Nous présentons un modèle économique de base pour évaluer les facteurs critiques agissant sur les risques du fournisseur d'assurance-récolte et pour calculer les primes de réassurance. Le modéle montre dans quelle mesure les risques et les profits de l'assureur sont déterminés par les risques de rendement particuliers de l'as suré, les facteurs de charge, les frais d'administration, les fonds de tampons et, surtout, la répartition des assurés par type de récolte et par région de culture. À partir de ces éléments, une démarche de calcul des primes actuarielles de réassurance est présentée, exemples à l'appui.     

福建省农村信用社林权抵押贷款探索与建议

介绍了福建省农村信用社进行林权抵押贷款的主要做法,指出贷款中存在的主要问题是林权评估价值虚高、风险分散转移机制尚未建立、缺乏熟悉林业的信贷人员等。认为应从配套政策、配套服务、抵押物的管理、抵押权的处置、风险补偿、人员培训等方面完善林权抵押贷款。     

The Relationship between Exports, Credit Risk and Credit Guarantees

This paper provides an understanding of how the export credit worthiness of an importing country affects export sales of agricultural and other manufactured products and how export credit guarantees or insurance can mitigate risks of nonpayment. A theoretical model is developed. It shows how risk mitigation through export credit insurance could increase exports to high-risk importing countries. The key result is that the export response curve is more inelastic in the presence of payment risk, and the effect of insurance is to make the export curve more elastic. Statistical evidence supports this fundamental premise.
Le présent article explique comment la solvabilité d'un pays importateur affecte les ventes de produits agricoles et de produits finis à l'étranger et comment la garantie du crédit à l'exportation ou les assurances atténuent les risques de défaut de paiement. Les auteurs proposent un modèle théorique. Ce dernier illustre comment on pourrait accroûtre les exportations vers les pays à risque élevé en atténuant les risques au moyen d'une assurance du crédit à l'exportation. II en ressort principalement que les exportations suivent une courbe moins élastique quand il y a un risque de défaut de paiement et que cette courbe gagne en élasticité avec une assurance. Les auteurs fournissent des preuves statistiques de ce principe élémentaire.     

中国农业信贷对农业产出绩效的实证分析

一、引言在市场经济条件下 ,现代农业的发展离不开资金支持。农业信贷作为农业资金的主要来源之一对农业的发展具有重要作用。农村金融抑制和农业信贷市场发育残缺是导致中国农业信贷有效供给不足的主要原因。在农业信贷资源稀缺的情况下 ,必须追求农业信贷对农业产出的绩效。本文就中国农业信贷对农业产出的绩效进行了实证分析 ,以对提高中国农业信贷的绩效提供政策参考。二、评价农业信贷对农业产出绩效的一般方法农业信贷对农业产出的影响主要是通过对农业生产要素以及要素结构 (技术 )的影响实现的。评价农业信贷对农业产出绩效的模型主…     

兵团农牧团场小额信贷模式及履约机制研究

金融资源的投入对农村经济的发展起到至关重要的作用,新疆兵团实现农业现代化也离不开金融资源的支持。自2001年以来,兵团银行机构在广大农牧团场推广小额信贷业务以来,团场农业经济得到了快速发展,银行部门根据兵团的体制特点不断创新信贷模式,保证高的履约率,实现了双赢。本文在对兵团农牧团场小额信贷模式总结梳理的基础上,试图运用博弈论分析方法,通过对博弈主体行为分析,揭示高履约背后的内在履约机制。     

Simplified Risk Analysis in Agricultural Extension

Attention is given to the major methods of assessing risk in order to make choices. The literature frequently reports studies on mean-variance (E-V) analysis and stochastic dominance rules. Both of these methods are compared, in an agricultural application, with the approach outlined by Hanoch and Levy. The empirical results suggests that Hanoch and Levy's criterion appear to reduce the size of the risk-efficient set, and that the sets of recommendations from the methods under comparison were consistent. The two recommendations generated by Hanoch and Levy's rule were found to be reasonable for this particular decision process.     

The Costs and Returns of Agricultural Credit Delivery

Borrower-level data from 963 agricultural lending relationships are used to examine how several factors influence the costs and returns of extending agricultural credit. The results provide estimates of the costs and returns of agricultural lending and the extent to which these costs and returns are influenced by factors such as loan volume, lender/borrower relationship factors, and contract terms. The findings indicate that economies of size exist in agricultural credit delivery and that lenders pass most of these benefits on to borrowers through lower interest rates. In addition, the impacts of lender/borrower relationship factors were relatively small.     

Assessing the Vulnerability to Price Spikes in Agricultural Commodity Markets

We examine empirically the predictability of conditions associated with a higher probability of a price spike in agricultural commodity markets. We find that the forward spread is the most significant indicator of probable price jumps in maize, wheat and soybeans futures markets, a result which is in line with the ‘Theory of Storage’. We additionally show that some option-implied variables add significant predictive power when added to the more standard information variable set. Overall, the estimated probabilities of large price increases from our probit models exhibit significant correlations with historical sudden market upheavals in agricultural markets.