The Rocky Road to Implementation of Basel II in the United States

This paper contends that the problems US officials have encountered in their efforts to implement Basel II reflect inherent weaknesses in the structure of the approach. It begins with a brief overview of the original Basel Accord on Capital Adequacy (Basel I) and a summary of the Basel II approach, with emphasis on the Pillar I weights for credit risk. Next an analysis of the Fed’s bifurcated approach to implementation of Basel II is followed by an examination of three unanticipated obstacles: (1) perceived competitive inequities within the USA; (2) the surprisingly lower and variable capital charges revealed in the fourth quantitative impact study; and (3) the request by four leading banks for permission to implement the simpler, Standardized Approach rather than the Advanced Internal Ratings Approach (A-IRB). These reflect the erosion of several crucial predeal understandings as described by Kane (J Financ Serv Res 32(1):39–53, 2007a). The paper concludes with a consideration of whether it may have been possible to achieve equivalent improvements in risk management with lower compliance costs and less uncertainty about the impact on financial stability.

Basel II and Bankers’ Propensity to Take or Avoid Excessive Risk

Both Basel I and Basel II are concerned (indeed, obsessed) with risk taking by bankers. But risk is an essential part of banking. The essential issues are “when are such risks excessive and does Basel II effectively constrain bankers from taking excessive risks?” I answer these questions by outlining alternative definitions of excessive risk and analyzing the extent to which Basel II deals effectively with this risk. I find the Basel II measures both costly and inadequate, and likely increase excessive risk taking. I conclude with a preferable alternative procedure – including subordinated debt fully in required capital and prompt corrective action based on prestructured capital/asset ratios.     

国际银行业统一监管体系的发展与完善

布雷顿森林体系解体以来,银行业发展迅速,机构跨国化,业务多样化以及创新工具不断涌现,金融危机频发,急需一个有效的国际统一监管体系。巴塞尔委员会自1975年成立以来,对国际银行统一监管发挥了重要作用,文章就巴塞尔协议这35年以来的发展趋势进行了研究,并试图找出新协议的缺陷和仍需继续改进的地方,提出进一步完善的重点。     

新巴塞尔协议与我国银行业监管改革

巴塞尔协议是一个对全球银行活动有着深刻影响的国际性银行监督管理合约,代表着银行业风险管理的未来方向。我国已表示接受巴塞尔协议。这将促进我国银行业全面加强风险管理,推进监管的规范化、全程化,保证监管的持续性和有效性。文章从研究新巴塞尔协议出发,探讨如何改革我国     

银行资本充足率监管对宏观经济的影响——基于亚洲地区的实证研究

<巴塞尔协议>资本充足率的规定已经成为发达国家或发展中国家银行系统资本监管的标准,提高银行资本充足率对于一国的宏观经济是否有负面的影响,(尤其是在经济低迷时期),这一问题在最近的十年中引起广泛的关注.本文借助于Peek和Rosengren的测算方法,通过计算和分析亚洲各国(地区)在经历金融危机后加强资本管制、提高资本充足率对该国宏观经济的影响时发现,这样的举措在经济低迷时期不但不会改善宏观经济状况,反而会恶化经济的发展.     

How do leverage ratios affect bank share performance during financial crises: The Japanese experience of the late 1990s

This study investigates the relationship between leverage ratios and bank share performance for a sample of Japanese banks during the period of financial crisis in the late 1990s. We differentiate between two types of leverage ratios: book leverage and market leverage. We show that market leverage instead of book leverage observed before the crisis has statistically and economically significant predictive power for the cross-sectional variation in bank performance during the crisis, even after controlling for a variety of other indicators reflecting bank’s characteristics and financial conditions. We also find that banks with lower market leverage ratios were affected more adversely by the failure announcements of large financial institutions during the crisis. The results are robust across alternative model specifications, statistical methodologies, lengths of sample intervals, and measures of bank share performance during the crisis. Our results therefore have important implications for regulators in identifying distressed banks that are vulnerable to the deterioration in conditions of the financial system.     

新生代员工心理资本对安全行为的影响:基于安全动机和安全知识的中介作用

心理资本在提高员工行为方面发挥了重要作用,企业越来越注重开发员工积极心理状态来代替以往以惩罚纠正为主的管理手段.在安全领域,新生代员工安全行为问题一直是高危险企业关注的重点,因此,新生代员工心理资本对安全行为的影响机制是目前国内较少关注和文章将要解决的重要问题.文章通过对333个新生代员工样本进行分析,运用结构方程模型的方法,结合新生代员工的特点,研究了心理资本对新生代员工安全行为的影响关系以及安全动机和安全知识的中介作用.研究结果表明:(1)心理资本及其各个维度均与新生代员工安全行为呈显著正相关;(2)自我效能对新生代员工安全行为的影响大于其他各个维度对安全行为的影响;(3)心理资本及其各个维度对新生代员工安全参与行为的影响大于对安全遵从行为的影响;(4)心理资本以安全动机和安全知识为中介影响新生代员工安全参与行为和安全遵从行为,其中安全知识在心理资本对新生代员工安全遵从行为的影响路径中起到完全中介效应.文章丰富和扩展了心理资本理论在安全领域的应用和解释力,同时也扩展了心理资本在新生代员工群体中的研究和运用,有助于高危险企业管理者选择更加适宜的安全管理手段对新生代员工安全行为进行有效管理.     

泡沫经济破灭前后日本银企信用风险管理制度及其功效分析

战后,日本金融体系效仿欧美国家建立起一系列信用风险管理制度。同时,根据市场主导型金融市场的特点,逐步建立起具有自身特点的信用风险管理制度。日本银企信用风险管理制度包括商业银行的内部控制制度、银行风险防御及挽救制度、商业银行外部监管制度。通过对日本银企信用风险管理制度的功效进行剖析,可以看出这一制度存在局限性并与日本的泡沫经济、金融危机、金融效率存在内在关系。     

政府安全管制有效吗?——基于2002—2009年省级面板数据的实证分析

基于2002—2009年省级面板数据,构建模型分析了政府罚款、检查单位数、使用执法文书等政府安全管制工具对抑制生产安全事故以及死亡率的影响,这些安全管制执法指标存在随机缺失值,为提高预测精度和统计效力,利用极大似然法(Maximum Likelihood,ML)处理缺头值,得到参数无偏估计量。实证结果表明：政府安全执法对于遏制事故起数和死亡率均无显著效果。而职工素质对事故起数和死亡率都具有显著抑制作用,工人素质每提高1％,事故起数平均下降超过1％,亿元GDP死亡人数降低约0.008人。安全投入仅有助于减少事故发生频率,但对于死亡率没有显著影响,安全投入每增加1％,事故起数平均下降0.4％。此文的政策启示在于：为了有效降低安全事故和死亡率,政府的安全管制重点应转变为促进企业提高职工素质、激励企业增加安全投入及提高技术水平、监督企业切实发挥工会作用等。     

论社会中介组织在食品安全监管中的作用

我国食品安全监管问题一直深受人们关注。理想状态的监管体制是企业高度自律、政府监管体系高效公平。但是由于存在“市场失灵”与“政府失灵”问题,因此必须重视并积极发挥社会中介组织在食品安全监管中的作用,建立完善的食品安全监管体制必须有社会中介组织的参与。     

贸易自由化进程的国家利益分析

文章以国家利益为视角,分析从GATT到WTO的贸易自由化进程,说明国家利益是贸易自由化的内在动力,中国在贸易自由化进程中既要遵循国际惯例,更要遵循“国家利益原则”。     

国地税合并与企业债务融资——基于税收征管独立性视角

文章将2018年国地税合并改革视为一项准自然实验,采用双重差分方法从税收征管独立性视角考察了其对企业债务融资行为的影响。研究发现,国地税合并会导致企业总体债务规模显著上升。区分债务类型来看,国地税合并未促使企业增加具有利息税盾效应的银行贷款,而是促使企业增加了不具有利息税盾效应的商业信用,这一结果否定了债务税盾效应假说,而支持了流动性约束效应假说。异质性分析表明,在非国有企业、融资约束严重的企业以及成本转嫁能力较弱的企业中,国地税合并对企业债务规模的促进作用更为凸显,再次验证了流动性约束效应假说。此外,文章还发现在国地税合并之后,企业的经营绩效和股利分配显著下降以及财务风险显著上升。文章结论表明,在国地税合并改革过程中,政府部门需要注意税收征管加强给企业带来的流动性约束,这对于现阶段的税收征管体制改革具有一定的实践参考意义。     

金融开放外源性风险对中国经济金融稳定与安全的影响分析

本文在构建金融开放外源性风险体系基础上,应用“3δ”原理和偏最小二乘法对中国、东南亚和拉美等共26个国家的金融开放的外源性风险及其影响进行了分析,所得结果与26个国家的金融开放的实际十分吻合.研究表明“3δ”原理和偏最小二乘法在监测和分析发展中国家金融开放外源性风险产生的影响具有很强的实用性和可操作性,为建立金融开放外生源风险的评价机制,为提高金融开放监管效率,提供了相应的方法依据.     

国有煤炭企业的安全问题和经理人的关系

国有煤炭企业在我国的经济发展中发挥着重要作用,但是煤炭企业的安全生产问题一直比较突出,在煤炭企业的安全生产中,经理人起着重要作用。文章从经理人角度分析了煤炭企业安全事故的深层原因,并且提出了相关建议。     

The economic consequences of the TARP: The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in the U.S.

This study empirically analyzes the impact of the United States’ bank recapitalization program, the centerpiece of the United States’ $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), on bank portfolios. Through superior empirical analysis and correct model specification, our findings overturn much of the existing literature on the effectiveness of capital injections into the banking sector in Japan and the United States. We show that the TARP program did not achieve the stated policy objective of stimulating bank lending. On the contrary, we find evidence that recipient banks grew assets significantly slower, particularly heavily risk-weighted assets such as loans. These findings are robust to various empirical specifications, including two-stage least squares estimation using instrumental variables, difference-in-difference techniques and generalized method of moments. These techniques control for pre-existing trends in loan growth while addressing potential endogeneity bias.     

平台属性对绿色农产品网购安全信任的影响——价格敏感度的调节作用

基于精细加工可能性模型,以消费者价格敏感度为调节变量,探究电商平台内外属性对消费者绿色农产品网购安全信任的影响。研究发现,在消费者价格敏感度调节下,系统质量、信息质量、服务质量、口碑声誉、结构保证与主观规范6大平台属性对绿色农产品网购安全信任具有显著正向影响。据此,提出电商平台应改善并优化平台建设质量、构建并完善平台保障体系,以增强消费者绿色农产品网购意愿,助推绿色农产品电商发展。     

The Elusive Total Budget Outlay of the Japanese Government: An Inquiry into the Japanese National Accounts II

The gross expenditure by the general government sector in the Japanese National Accounts for 1997 was reported to be 180.5 trillion yen. This figure is known to exclude some components of the fiscal activity of the government. Hence, while this figure is well defined, it is incomplete as a measure of the total expenditure of the Japanese government. The Fiscal Statistics issued by the Ministry of Finance, on the other hand, reports that net total outlay of the central government alone for 1997 was 170.0 trillion yen. When the provincial and local governments' outlay is added and adjusted for duplication, the total outlay is estimated at 234 trillion yen. The definition for this figure, however, is quite vague. It is extremely difficult to pin down the total government expenditure from the fiscal records of the government. The measurement of other concepts encounters similar problems. In this paper, we explore reasons why the fiscal records of the Japanese government are so obscure. We also consider what may be done to generate measures of fiscal activities of the Japanese government that are easily interpretable and usable in assessing their macroeconomic impacts. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2002, 16(2) pp. 177–193. University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104, and NBER. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C82, H10, H50, H60, H70, H80.     

International Financial Cooperation and the Number of Adherents: The Basel Committee and Capital Regulation

Theoretical analyses of international cooperation point to cooperation being optimized with a small number of participants. History is consistent with this view. However an anomaly is the international capital standards created by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). Basel I has over 100 adherents, and approximately that number of countries have been identified in a survey as candidates for Basel II. The author demonstrates that this is not an anomaly. First, Basel I was a product of a duopoly and then an oligopoly prior to approval by the BCBS. Secondly, self-interest and other factors explain why more than 100 countries have agreed to accept these standards. JEL Classification Numbers: E58, F33, G15, G28     

国有商业银行流程再造战略结构模型的经验解析

业务流程再造是我国商业银行的一项重要管理战略,是提高商业银行核心能力的一项重要动因,业务流程再造的兴起在很大程度上源于信息技术的发展。国有商业银行流程再造战略结构模型的构建可以为商业银行进一步实施业务流程再造战略提供有效的理论指导。因子分析可以为理论模型提供较好的信度检验和效度检验,从而揭示了我国国有商业银行业务流程再造过程中的成效与不足。