The impact of airport capacity constraints on future growth in the US air transportation system

This paper simulates airline strategic decision making and its impact on passenger demand, flight delays and aircraft emissions. Passenger flows, aircraft operations, flight delays and aircraft emissions are simulated for 22 airports in the US, under three airport capacity scenarios. The simulation results indicate that most system-wide implications for operations and environmental impact seem to be manageable, but local impacts at congested hub airports may be significant. The response of the air transportation system to avoid airports with high delays could significantly impact passenger demand and air traffic for these and directly dependent airports. The simulations also suggest that frequency competition effects could maintain flight frequencies at high levels, preventing a significant shift toward larger aircraft, which would otherwise reduce the impact of the capacity constraints.     

Capacity dynamics and the formulation of the airport capacity/stability paradox: A European perspective

Access to capacity is often considered to be uncertain, causing airlines to build buffer times into their flight schedules in anticipation of potential delays. Similarly, air navigation service providers use capacity buffers to overcome potential safety standard violations. However, the use of excessive buffers is detrimental to cost efficiency in the air transport system. This paper improves our understanding of capacity predictability. The concepts of capacity dynamics and stability are taken as integral parts of an airport's plan to mitigate the risk of capacity degradation. Based on the concepts of capacity dynamics and stability, the capacity/stability paradox is introduced and discussed.     

A mobilities approach to tourism from emerging world regions

Increasing numbers of people from the emerging world regions, Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East engage in tourism practices at domestic, intra-regional and long-haul international scales. In this article, we deploy an innovative application of the mobilities approach, which we argue moves beyond the Eurocentrism implicit in modernist tourism studies, in a comparative analysis of tourism in and from these regions and those in the ‘West’. Our analysis opens up the systematic study of tourism in emerging world regions in terms of the mobilities paradigm, and concludes: one, travel had a multiplicity of origins in societies in the emerging regions, but most did not possess an equivalent emic term to ‘tourism'. Two, tourism at domestic and intra-regional levels tends to be entangled with other discretionary mobilities, whereas the long-haul level is more differentiated. Three, the development of domestic discretionary travel in emerging regions can be represented by four overlapping ‘mobility constellations’. Four, there are significant historical differences between the regions in their long-haul mobility constellations, although their kinetic hierarchies are all still steep. Five, forms of movement and associated practices of discretionary travellers from the emerging regions and Western countries became increasingly similar under the impact of socio-technological, economic and cultural globalisation. Six, differences between the emerging regions, particularly Asia, and the West are most salient on the emic level of representations of international travel: the specific cultural motive forces for tourism do not centre on authenticity-seeking, but are instead bound up with prestige and markers of modernity.     

A new approach to travel information sources and travel behaviour based on cognitive dissonance theory

This study examines the influences of en route information on travel behaviours, based on cognitive dissonance theory, which explains that selective exposure to new information leads to the presence of dissonance. Fifteen travel activities were identified from the related literature to measure levels of unplanned travel behaviours. Moreover, two types of information sources used during trips were tested to evaluate the degree of dissonance in accordance with new information provided to travellers while on vacation. The results indicated that during trips, those who use information technology change their intended behaviours, while those who use ‘traditional’ information sources actualize their intended behaviours. In line with cognitive dissonance theory, information technology is viewed as dissonance-increasing information, while traditional information sources used during trips are considered consonance-increasing information.     

Evolution of the international air transportation country network from 2002 to 2013

In this research, we analyze the evolution of the international air transportation country network from 2002 to 2013 with two perspectives: The network’s physical topology and the functional network with traffic information. Our analysis shows that the network is scale-free and has the small-world property. The evolution of triadic properties suggests that the network gears towards symmetric, transitive closure. We find that United States, Great Britain, and France are critical from both perspectives; Surprisingly, South Africa is particularly critical from topological point of view. Furthermore, topological and functional criticality are highly correlated to the GDP of a country.     

A spatial microsimulation approach for the analysis of commuter patterns: from individual to regional levels

The daily trip to work is ubiquitous, yet its characteristics differ widely from person to person and place to place. This is manifested in statistics on mode and distance of travel, which vary depending on a range of factors that operate at different scales. This heterogeneity is problematic for decision makers tasked with encouraging more sustainable commuter patterns. Numerical models, based on real commuting data, have great potential to aid the decision making process. However, we contend that new approaches are needed to advance knowledge about the social and geographical factors that relate to the diversity of commuter patterns, if policies targeted to specific individuals or places are to be effective. To this end, the paper presents a spatial microsimulation approach, which combines individual-level survey data with geographically aggregated census results to tackle the problem. This method overcomes the limitations imposed by the lack of available geocoded micro-data. Further, it allows a range of scales of analysis to be pursued in parallel and provides insights into both the types of area and individual that would benefit most from specific interventions.     

Analysis of intermodal freight from China to Indian Ocean: A goal programming approach

This paper presents an intermodal network optimization model to examine the competitiveness of 36 alternative routings for freight moving from China to and beyond Indian Ocean. The proposed model, which is built upon the principles of goal programming, is able to handle multiple and conflicting objective functions such as minimizing transportation cost, transit time and transit time variability while ensuring flow continuity and transit nodes compatibility among the rail, road, ocean vessel, airplane and inland waterway transports. Transportation time and cost obtained from comprehensive industry sources are then fed into the intermodal transport network connecting two important Chinese origins and four Indian destinations, from which the most attractive routes are identified. In addition, the paper investigates several non-dominated transportation cases through sensitivity analysis tests, and analyzes the potential competitiveness and possible influences of future route developments to current transportation patterns in Asia.     

Exploring the network structure and nodal centrality of China’s air transport network: A complex network approach

This paper uses a complex network approach to examine the network structure and nodal centrality of individual cities in the air transport network of China (ATNC). Measures for overall network structure include degree distribution, average path length and clustering coefficient. Centrality metrics for individual cities are degree, closeness and betweenness, representing a node’s location advantage as being directly connected to others, being accessible to others, and being the intermediary between others, respectively. Results indicate that the ATNC has a cumulative degree distribution captured by an exponential function, and displays some small-world (SW) network properties with an average path length of 2.23 and a clustering coefficient of 0.69. All three centrality indices are highly correlated with socio-economic indicators of cities such as air passenger volume, population, and gross regional domestic product (GRDP). This confirms that centrality captures a crucial aspect of location advantage in the ATNC and has important implications in shaping the spatial pattern of economic activities. Most small and low-degree airports are directly connected to the largest cities with the best centrality and bypass their regional centers, and therefore sub-networks in the ATNC are less developed except for Kunming in the southwest and Urumchi in the northwest because of their strategic locations for geographic and political reasons. The ANTC is relatively young, and not as efficient and well-developed as that of the US.     

A metaheuristic approach to the reliable location routing problem under disruptions

This paper examines a reliable capacitated location–routing problem in which depots are randomly disrupted. Customers whose depots fail must be reinserted into the routes of surviving depots. We present a scenario-based mixed-integer programming model to optimize depot location, outbound delivery routing, and backup plans. We design a metaheuristic algorithm that is based on a maximum-likelihood sampling method, route-reallocation improvement, two-stage neighborhood search and simulated annealing. Numerical tests show that the heuristic is able to generate results that would keep operating costs and failure costs well balanced. Managerial insights on scenario identification, facility deployment and model simplification are drawn.     

A multilevel Gini decomposition approach to measuring the geographic concentration of tourism

This research highlights findings from an application of a multilevel Gini decomposition method to measure the degree of spatial concentration of tourism markets in Australia. The overall level of spatial concentration in Australia is decomposed into two levels: inbound country and travel purpose. While travel purpose is an important factor associated with the concentration patterns of tourism, the nature of its impact differs significantly by country of origin. Due to the variation in market share and the market’s underlying dispersal characteristics, an increase in the share of one market may require a more than proportionate increase in the shares of several markets in order to counterbalance the spatial concentration pressures. Findings show that considering only one factor in the decomposition process can hide important offsetting influences of market segments on concentration and dispersion.     

A nonlinear approach to the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of the MERCOSUR

This paper analyses the tourism-led growth hypothesis for the four countries of the MERCOSUR regional trade block. By applying nonlinear techniques, we explore whether tourism activity leads – in the long run – to economic growth, or, alternatively, economic expansion drives tourism growth, or indeed a bidirectional relationship exists between the two variables. To this end, non-parametric cointegration and causality tests are applied to quarterly data for the period 1990–2011. We show the existence of a cointegrated relationship between real per capita gross domestic product and tourism expenditure for all countries. Moreover, the linearity of this relation is rejected for both Argentina and Brazil (economies with a relatively diversified structure). The non-parametric causality tests confirm in all cases the causality from tourism to growth. Meanwhile, only for Uruguay and Argentina causality also goes in the inverse direction (from growth to tourism). Finally, the paper compares the results of the nonlinear approach with those obtained by using the traditional linear methodology.     

A ticket to ride: Evolving landscapes of air travel accessibility in the United States

During the past decade, air passenger service in the United States has been exposed to numerous carrier bankruptcies, antitrust investigations, mergers, labor problems and a massive increase in competition. These internal elements, combined with the rising costs of fuel and the threat of terrorism combine to make a relatively uncertain air travel landscape for both passengers and operators. Moreover, these dynamics have generated significant geographical shifts in airline route structures and airports serviced by commercial carriers. These factors, combined with increasing levels of consumer access to fare and routing information, have altered the landscape of air travel accessibility in the United States. The purpose of this paper is to examine issues of consumer air travel accessibility through an analysis of three critical measures: flight segments, flight time and ticket costs. In addition, a typology of air passenger accessibility is generated for the 156 busiest commercial airports in the United States using these three measures. Results suggest significant local and regional biases in time and cost, relative to distance, for many US markets.     

Teen travel in the Greater Toronto Area: A descriptive analysis of trends from 1986 to 2006 and the policy implications

This paper extends research on urban form and travel behavior beyond adult travel by examining teen travelers aged 13–19 in the Greater Toronto Area. Data from the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) survey are used to study four main research questions: (1) How has teen mode choice changed from 1986 to 2006? (2) How do these choices vary as teens transition from the 13–15 age group to being of driving age (16–19)? (3) How do these choices vary across the different urban and suburban regions of the GTA? (4) What are some of the differences between teen travel and adult travel? Results show that in general, active transportation has decreased, while auto-passenger mode shares have increased across the region. The younger group walks more and the older group takes transit more for both school and discretionary travel. Jurisdictions with better transit supply and orientation have higher transit mode shares for school trips, but discretionary trips have very low transit mode shares. Walk mode shares for both school and discretionary travel are similar across all jurisdictions, regardless of whether they are urban or suburban. In contrast to adult travel in the GTA, built form characteristics and transit supply do not appear to have a direct relationship with teen mode choice. Urban form appears to exert an indirect influence on teen travel.