国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀的冲击效应北大核心CSSCISSCI

我国较高的石油对外依存度使得国际石油价格的波动成为影响国内通货膨胀的潜在因素。本文将SVAR模型引入到国际石油价格波动对我国总体通胀和结构性通胀的冲击效应研究中来,发现国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀的冲击既有总体效应又会产生结构性通胀效应。对总体效应的研究表明,国际石油价格波动对我国CPI的冲击具有持续性,而原材料燃料动力购进价格指数是国际石油价格冲击我国CPI的主要传导渠道。对结构效应的研究表明,受国际石油价格波动冲击最大的是居住类和食品类价格,国际石油价格上涨1%对两者12个月的累积冲击效应分别高达1.56%和0.75%,而这两项也是近年来推动我国CPI上涨的主要因素。因此,多头并举应对国际油价上升的冲击对抑制当前的通货膨胀具有重要意义。     

国际油价波动与石油冲击——基于符号约束VAR模型实证分析

本文利用符号约束识别VAR模型,区分国际石油市场中基本面冲击与非基本面冲击,并考察他们对石油价格影响的相对重要性。我们发现,虽然供需基本面冲击解释了石油价格的大部分波动,但非基本面(投机)冲击对国际石油现货价格仍具有不可忽视的影响。尤其在2007～2008年间,投机冲击一定程度上扭曲了石油市场的价格形成机制,导致油价显著偏离供需基本面决定的价格水平。     

美元指数对国际石油价格影响的实证分析

随着虚拟经济的膨胀发展,近几年国际石油价格居高不下且价格波动幅度惊人,其中原因众说纷纭。本文根据1981—2012年美国西德克萨斯石油价格数据和期间美元兑世界主要货币计算的美元指数变动趋势,通过设定计量模型,建立变量间的数学关系式进行回归分析。并通过t检验来分析美元指数对国际石油价格的影响。     

金融元素的变动对通货膨胀影响的实证研究

本文主要研究货币供应量(M2)、外汇储备、汇率、国际石油价格变动对通货膨胀的影响。构建VAR模型和向量误差修正模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了金融元素对CPI的影响。实证结果表明:货币供给量、外汇储备、汇率和CPI之间存在一种长期的稳定关系,外汇储备和汇率的变动对通货膨胀的影响皆较小。CPI与实际有效汇率间存在负相关关系。国际石油价格变动对通货膨胀的影响较大,汇率变动对通货膨胀的影响较小,说明汇率对价格传递的不完全性。     

石油价格波动对我国经济的影响

石油作为一种重要能源和资源,广泛应用于各行各业,被誉为经济乃至整个社会的"黑色黄金"、"经济血液"。1973年石油期货出现以前,国际石油价格一直在每桶3美元左右。30多年来国际石油价格一路攀升,2006年7月甚至达到了每桶78美元的"天价"。石油价格的剧烈波动改变着世界政治经济格局,尤其对世界经济的影响日益显著。我国作为当今世界经济发展的重要一员,与世界经济的关联程度日益增强。随着我国经济的快速发展,对石油的需求目益增加,石油的对外依存度不断提高,这就不可避免地受到国际石油价格上涨的影响。因此,认真分析国际石油价格上涨对世界经济和中国经济的影响,提出我国具体的应对措施,对我国经济社会发展和国家安全具有深远的意义。     

石油价格的预测及其对世界经济的冲击

2002年以来,随着世界经济的强劲复苏,石油价格开始逐步攀升。2004年的上涨趋势最为猛烈,石油价格一度突破了50美元/桶的水平。石油价格冲击降低石油进口国的经济增长率,甚至降低绝对产出水平造成经济衰退;抬高物价水平,并可能引致通货膨胀(Roubini and Setser,2004)。世界石油价格的剧烈波动构成宏观经济重要的外生性冲击,预测石油价格波动及其对宏观经济的冲击具有十分重要的意义。一石油价格波动的原因分析影响石油价格波动的因素很多,除了供给与需求两个基本的决定要素外,还有经济因素(比如GDP增长)、政治因素(比如中东地区的政局动荡)…     

2004年一季度中国能源市场形势分析

一季度能源生产和消费继续保持快速增长，部分地区供电紧张局面依然严峻，煤炭市场供求偏紧，能源市场价格普遍上涨。需求拉动是当前煤炭价格上涨的主要原因，成本推动是电力价格上调的基本原因，国内石油价格主要受国际石油价格变化的影响。二季度能源生产和需求仍将保持较快增长，预计发电量同比增长15．59／6左右，煤炭市场供求状况会略有好转，石油市场供求平衡，能源市场价格仍会在高位波动。     

国际石油价格暴涨急跌的逻辑和中国的应对

进入21世纪以后,国际石油价格出现了一次前所未有的暴涨急跌的波动。本文认为,产生这种波动的根本原因在于基本面给出了投机的空间,而金融面的投机因素使价格波动的幅度几乎被无限地放大了。由于中国的工业化进程还处在离不开石油能源的发展阶段,所以在石油价格剧烈波动的国际能源环境下,我们建议中国在短期内应当以投资于石油现货市场为主,控制好库存数量,以便通过石油价格的周期波动本身来平滑短期的价格冲击;从长期来看则应当以开发新能源、加强与国际主要能源生产国的合作为主。     

世界石油危机与中国石油贸易的战略发展(1973-1998)北大核心CSSCISSCI

石油危机是影响世界经济发展的重大问题。本文主要总结了1973—1998年世界三次石油危机的特点及中国石油贸易发展的特殊战略。从中国的石油贸易发展战略来看,在第一次和第二次石油危机的背景下,与发达国家相反,中国主要以"能源外交"和"能源换外汇"型的出口战略为主。到了20世纪90年代,中国经济进入平稳增长期,且逐渐与世界经济接轨,对石油的消费需求随着经济的增长迅速增加,石油贸易逐渐由出口转为进口,我国石油业对国际石油市场的依赖性也越来越强。第三次石油危机爆发后国际石油价格剧烈波动,给我国的能源供求关系带来极大的冲击。因此注意能源安全、完善国内石油定价、开发新能源成为第三次石油危机后至今我国仍然面临的重要问题。     

警惕输入型通胀缠上中国

目前，国际石油和铁矿石等基础原材料价格的波动不止，与此同时，美元持续贬值，导致全球美元泛滥。尽管国内的通货膨胀压力在减小，但发生国外输入型通货膨胀的风险却依然存在。[编者按]     

国内油价高涨的主因——基于VAR的实证分析

近年来．国际原油价格强势上扬，国内原油价格也不断上调。尽管一些学者从国内需求增加和国内外原油价格接轨的角度来说明目前原油和成品油的高位，但这些理论似乎都无法完全解释当前油价暴涨的现象。本文从原油和成品油的市场结构和定价机制出发，基于VAK模型证明了国内油价主要为短线预期带动所致．这种预期从国外传递到国内并导致了国内油价的上涨。因此通过改革油品的定价机制且完善和适当干预国内原油期货交易市场，可以打压这种非理性预期，抑制油价飙升的势头。     

A nonlinear ARDL model of inflation dynamics in the Philippine economy

This study investigated whether global oil price changes, exchange rate, interest rate, and economic output exert symmetric or asymmetric pass-through effects on inflation in the Philippines. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was fitted to the observable data using quarterly observations from 1998 to 2019. Knowledge of these relationships is important in monetary policy setting in achieving targeted inflation; the Philippines adopted inflation targeting in 2002. The finding shows that world oil price shocks are still prominent and the most important determinants of inflation variations in the country. There is prima facie evidence on the short-run asymmetry of oil price changes to inflation. Exchange rate pass-through to inflation was very minimal in the short-run, and there is no long-run effect. Evidence that interest rate and demand shocks have a long-run asymmetric effect on inflation was found. These findings imply that monetary policy setting should account for the asymmetric effects of inflation determinants. Study results provide a deeper understanding of how positive and negative changes of inflation determinants affect actual inflation, which aids policymakers in achieving targeted inflation.     

基于菲利普斯模型的油价冲击通胀效应研究

在菲利普斯模型的理论基础上,本文结合中国油价形成机制改革的具体情况,构建了国际油价和中国物价之间的实证模型。实证结果发现,油价冲击对中国CPI的影响有限,但位于油价传导中端的PPI对国际油价变动较为敏感,特别是油价改革之后油价对PPI的传导系数得到了显著的提升。研究表明,油价冲击在中国的传导极大地受到政府政策的影响,价格管制和激烈的市场竞争共同降低了中国下游生产厂商的成本转嫁能力,使中国的厂商在面临油价冲击时处于弱势地位。     

对外贸易顺差或贸易逆差影响我国当前通胀治理的内部机理及对策建议——借鉴美国、日本发展经验

基于对外贸易顺差和逆差对我国当前通胀的"货币基础"效应和"价格传导"机制的深入分析,提出加快对外贸易增长方式转变是解决国际贸易不平衡对我国通胀负面影响的重要途径,进而通过比较美国、日本在促进本国对外贸易增长方式转变的经验,提出了相关的对策建议。     

Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing country: Evidence from Iran

A monetary model of inflation was estimated on the oil-producing country of Iran for the period 1984:1–2016:4. It was found that expectations are formed rationally and that agents are forward-looking and adjust their behavior based on changes in government expenditure. Consequently, it was found that higher fiscal variables result in lower price levels over the long run. A higher oil price leads to a lower price in the country but to a higher money supply and interest rate over the long run. Furthermore, a higher domestic interest rate results in a higher price level, while the reverse is true for a higher foreign interest rate. Another cause of inflation in Iran is the foreign price level. It was found that over the short run a higher growth of the real government expenditure results in a lower inflation rate in the country but a positive change in the foreign interest rate brings in a higher inflation rate.     

Pass-through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China＇s Inflation： An Empirical Investigation

The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.     

Does China have Inflationary Effects on the USA and Japan？

With China＇s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was causing sharp increases in global prices. This paper uses several econometric techniques to assess the extent of the link between inflation rates between China and the USA and Japan. Only limited empirical evidence at the aggregate level is found for consumer price inflation in China leading to price changes in the USA and Japan. However, there is some evidence that inflation in the USA has an impact on Chinese inflation. The results seem consistent with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan being concerned about inflation and, hence, adjusting policy such that inflation shocks have no significant effect on overall inflation. Recent Chinese price rises are unlikely to have a material effect on the USA or Japan.     

Revisiting the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through to Inflation in Africa’s Two Largest Economies: Nigeria and South Africa

This paper revisits the exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) to inflation in Nigeria and South Africa by incorporating structural breaks and using time series variables, namely the consumer price index, nominal effective exchange rate, gross domestic product, and crude oil price. Based on the Maki cointegration test and a flexible estimation approach of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, our empirical evidence suggests that the long‐ and short‐run ERPT to inflation is complete for Nigeria, while for South Africa it is incomplete both in the long run and short run. This result indicates that prices are stickier in South Africa compared to Nigeria. The comparison between Nigeria and South Africa confirms the role of inflation targeting and central bank credibility on the ERPT. The results divulge further that output growth in Nigeria increases inflation in the long run while it is anti‐inflationary in the short run. For South Africa, the effect of output growth is negatively insignificant. In addition, the long‐run effect of oil price is negative and significant for Nigeria, while for South Africa the short‐run effect of oil price is positive and significant. Therefore, the findings of this paper will assist the monetary authorities to achieve monetary policy objectives.