Hedonic Valuation in an Urban High‐Rise Housing Market

This study estimates the effect of spatial heterogeneity and housing‐unit attributes on the value of apartment housing in a densely urban Chinese housing market. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, high‐rise housing complexes present complications in that the vertical dimension is important in purchase decisions—yet the spatial econometric literature has focused exclusively on two dimensions. We introduce a three‐dimensional (3‐D) spatial weights matrix to capture the potential for “within project” correlation among housing units located on different floors within a project. Second, a significant proportion of the world's population lives in urban high‐rise buildings but the literature has, for the most part, completely ignored such markets. Test statistics support the use of a 3‐D weight matrix; our application of the hedonic methodology to a dense, vertical housing market shows that it can be used to value amenities located within or adjacent to housing complex amenities. In our empirical example, though, we observe little difference in marginal valuation of amenities under a 3‐D weight matrix relative to a standard 2‐D weight matrix.     

Prices,policies, and place: What drives greenfield development?

While the recent global financial crisis heightened awareness of the linkages between global financial capital and urban spatial pattern, the timing of urban development – largely thought to be market driven – is not fully understood. Parcel-level studies of urban land-use change, which often use hazard models to investigate if and when development occurs, offer an opportunity to juxtapose the extent to which decisions to develop individual plots of farmland into housing are driven by market forces, the unique characteristics of the land and its intraurban location, or policies such as transportation infrastructure and municipal annexation. Using residential completion data in the Phoenix, Arizona region from 1992 to 2014, a period of dramatic commodity, fuel, and home price swings, and land cover imagery, we develop a parcel-level hazard model to gauge the relative impacts of market, policy, and place-based drivers of land change. We find limited evidence of induced development associated with freeway planning, that annexation and development are closely linked and moreso during economic booms, high fuel prices spur development in the region's core, and agricultural and urban land rents affect the timing of development. This study advances our understanding of development decision- making, policy impacts, and urban land-use change modeling and provides an empirical connection between local and global drivers of Greenfield development.     

Valuing ecosystem services of urban forests and open spaces: application of the SEEA framework in Australia*

Around two‐thirds of the global population will live in cities by 2050 requiring large urban infrastructure development. Decision‐makers and planners usually rely on standard economic accounting methods for urban planning and investments on infrastructure assets. However, standard methods fail to account for the ecosystem services benefits that living infrastructure (e.g. urban forests, open spaces) provides to city dwellers. This could generate socially inefficient configurations of urban spaces and compromise the achievement of long‐term urban sustainability targets. In this analysis, we applied a stochastic whole‐of‐life benefit–cost analysis following the System of Environmental‐Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework to compare alternative long‐term management strategies for living infrastructure in Canberra, Australia. Spatially explicit data, i‐Tree Eco and benefit transfer methods were used to estimate the stocks and flows ecosystem services benefits of urban forests and irrigated open spaces from 2018 to 2070. Our analysis suggests that a ’30 per cent canopy cover expansion’ scenario has the highest benefit–cost ratio, while the business as usual scenario, where a net loss of 400 trees is expected per year, offers the lowest benefit–cost ratio. Scenarios of expanding versus not expanding irrigated open spaces in the future both result in a benefit–cost ratio of approximately two.     

Understanding value changes in the urban development process and the impact of municipal planning

An urban development process causes spatial changes and changes of associated property rights, and, as a consequence, the value of the property will change as well. This linkage between spatial changes, changes of associated property rights and property values represents an important element in understanding how property values change during the urban development process and the role of municipal planning as a value changing factor in the urban development process. The objective of this paper is to analyse how property values change throughout the urban development process, and further, to discuss the explanations for these changes by comprising the impact of municipal land-use planning. This paper presents a conceptual model showing how property values in urban development areas change during the urban development process and information about the extent to which value increases. The model is directed towards countries with a regulated land use, exemplified by Denmark.     

Evaluating the impact of government land use policies on tree canopy coverage

Many cities around the world are experiencing the negative effects associated with not sustaining a sufficient level of tree canopy coverage. Tree canopy provides environmental benefits such as clean water and air, erosion prevention, climate control, and native species habitat and provides economic benefits such as higher housing values and lower energy expenditures. We study local government policies in a large U.S. metropolitan area (the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area) to find which policies perform the best at preserving or increasing urban forests. Empirical analysis reveals that a set of effective tree ordinance clauses, zoning ordinances, and having high quality smart growth projects in the community all help in preserving tree canopy in economically and environmentally meaningful amounts. Other actions, such as simply having a tree ordinance, designating a key management person in charge of tree programs, the presence of a tree board, and multiple communication channels were shown to be ineffective for our data set. Because benefits from tree canopy accrue to the local government's budget, to residents and to business owners, the entire community should gain from the passage of effective policies to preserve their local tree canopy. Estimated economic benefits from preserving tree canopy through an effective set of public policies are in the range of $10–15 million annually in an average county, mostly due to savings on stormwater management.     

Coupling urban expansion models and hydrological models: How important are spatial patterns?

It is well known that urban expansion has a severe impact on the surface water balance by transforming vegetated covers into sealed surfaces. This transformation causes changing fluxes of evapotranspiration, surface runoff and groundwater recharge. In order to estimate the impact of land cover changes on the surface hydrology, hydrological models are often coupled with different types of land cover change models. It is, however, not clear to what extent spatially-explicit urban expansion scenarios provide an added value in comparison with non-spatial urban expansion models at different scale levels. The objective of this paper is to acquire a better insight in the importance of scale effects involved in the coupling of urban expansion scenarios and hydrological models. The relative importance of using different projections of both (i) quantity and (ii) spatial patterns of urban expansion was analysed at four different scale levels. The highly urbanised Flanders–Brussels region was taken as an example application. Twelve different urban expansion scenarios for 2025 and 2050 were developed and subsequently used as an input in a spatially-distributed water balance model. The results obtained suggest that at the level of the Flanders–Brussels region, an accurate estimation of the quantity of urban expansion should get priority over an accurate projection of the spatial patterns. However, the importance of using accurate projections of the spatial pattern of urban expansion increases systematically at local scale levels. A uniform strategy for coupling urban expansion models and hydrological models thus seems inappropriate. These findings are highly relevant for water management and spatial planning policymakers that typically operate at different administrative levels.     

The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity

This paper presents an econometric analysis of land‐cover change in western Honduras. Ground‐truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996, net forest regrowth occurred in the 1015 km² study region. While some forest regrowth can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of forest regrowth greatly exceeds that of previously clear‐cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987 and 1996. Thus, the observed land‐cover changes most likely represent a complex mosaic of changing land‐use patterns across time and space. Using satellite imagery from 1987, 1991 and 1996, we estimate a series of models, including binary probit models for each date, and a random‐effects probit model using panel techniques. We also experiment with spatial sampling schemes designed to reduce residual spatial autocorrelation, and qualitatively compare the impact of spatial sampling on model accuracy. Lastly, we find that changes in relative prices, infrastructure improvement, and topography are all significantly related to changing land‐cover patterns.     

Administrative restructuring and land-use intensity—A spatial explicit perspective

BackgroundThe rapid industrialization, urbanization, and population explosion have ushered forth the era focusing on the efficient use of land resources to achieve sustainable development. “Intensive Land-Use Plan” was therefore proposed in the context of shifting the focus from “incremental planning” to “inventory planning” in rapidly developing countries, particularly China.MethodsWe develop our framework based on the hypothesis that administrative status has a spatial effect on intensive land use and explore this effect dynamically. In the first step, we summarized the different degrees of land-use intensity based on different administrative status (i.e., urban district, suburban district, county, county-level city, and district) and make categorizations. We also devised spatial models in multiple strategies embedded with different spatial weight matrices to the underlying driving forces using Wuhan agglomeration as the case.ResultsResults show that 1) urbanization, industrial structure, and retail sales of consumer goods are highly correlated with land-use intensity change, with all factors being positive; 2) the influences of different administrative status exist and strengthened in the past decade; the spatial interaction is greater when urban district is adjacent to district in the prefecture city in 2005 and 2015. In turn, this finding affirms the phenomenon that the administrative power has gradually strengthened, and the city centers are the most vibrant areas to compete for higher land-use efficiency.RecommendationThe emergence of diversified types of counties, such as urban districts and county-level cities, has further pressed the necessity to embed administrative influence in spatial regression. These findings provide theoretical basis for understanding the administrative dimension in new urbanization and have important policy implications on administrative adjustment and intensive land use.     

Anthropogenic and topographic correlates of natural vegetation cover within agricultural landscape mosaics in Turkey

Natural vegetation enhances the value of agricultural landscapes for people and wildlife. However, the role of anthropogenic versus topographic factors in driving the extent of natural vegetation cover within agricultural lands at large spatial scales remains unexplored. I assessed the influence of anthropogenic and topographic variables on the extent of agricultural mosaics with high natural vegetation cover in the country of Turkey where a large extent of natural and semi-natural vegetation is maintained by traditional agriculture. GIS layers depicting human land use, elevation, slope, roads and population data were obtained and summarized at two spatial scales, within provinces and for 100 km² grid cells covering the country’s entire agricultural land area. Average farm size was also obtained at province level. Hierarchical Partitioning was conducted to determine the independent effect of anthropogenic and topographic variables on the variation in agriculture with high natural vegetation. Slope had the largest independent effect on the variation in the proportion of agricultural mosaic with high natural vegetation cover. The extent of agricultural and settlement area also explained much of the variation in natural vegetation across both grid cells and provinces. The proportion of natural vegetation increased as human population and road density decreased across grid cells and as average farm size decreased across provinces. These results suggest that while topography is the primary driver of natural vegetation cover within agricultural mosaics in Turkey, the pressures associated with urban development and agricultural industrialization may also influence the cultural and wildlife value of agricultural landscapes.     

The Effect of Ontario's Greenbelt on the Price of Vacant Farmland

A hedonic property regression estimates a difference‐in‐differences coefficient to assess the effect of Ontario's Greenbelt zoning on vacant farmland prices around the Greater Toronto Area. In our analysis on over five hundred property sales between 2002 and 2009 we find some evidence that the Greenbelt legislation negatively influenced vacant farmland values located in close proximity to urban areas. However, the statistical significance of this result is sensitive to the exclusion of smaller parcels and to assumptions regarding endogeneity.     

Is there a forest transition outside forests? Trajectories of farm trees and effects on ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape in Eastern Germany

Most industrial countries have experienced a transformation of land use: from decreasing to expanding forest areas, the so-called forest transition. Outside closed forests, European rural landscapes exhibit a diversity of tree-based agricultural systems, but the question of whether this forest transition has also affected ‘trees outside forests’ has rarely been studied. The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics of farm trees and woodlands in an agricultural landscape in Eastern Germany from 1964 to 2008, based on aerial photographs and digital orthophotos. Taking a landscape ecological perspective, we quantify farm tree dynamics, disentangle processes of gain and loss in the socialist and post-socialist periods of Eastern Germany, and assess differences in ecosystem services provided by farm trees. A substantial increase of overall tree cover by 24.8% was observed for the selected time period, but trajectories have been disparate across different farm tree classes. The increase in tree cover was stronger in steep valleys than on hills and plateaus, indicating a significant interdependence between topography and trajectories of change. Patch numbers of farm trees did not increase, which suggests that the expansion of tree cover is mostly due to a spatial expansion of previously existing tree patches. Overall net gains in tree cover were rather similar during the socialist and post-socialist eras. The general increase in tree cover was accompanied by increase in agriculture-related ecosystem service provision, but the increase in pollination and pest control services was much lower than that in water purification services. These findings present the first empirical evidence from an industrialized country that there is also an ongoing ‘forest transition’ outside closed forests. Potential, partially counteracting drivers of change during the socialist and post-socialist periods have mainly been related to farm policies and the environmental consciousness of land users and society as a whole.     

基于不同Logistic模型的土地利用格局模拟对比研究——以湖北省宣恩县和咸丰县为例

模拟土地利用空间格局分布规律对合理利用土地资源、制定土地利用规划、协调土地与经济、环境的关系具有十分重要的意义。土地利用格局存在空间异质性,对比不同地区格局特征规律对加深土地利用格局的认识具有重要意义。以邻接的湖北省宣恩县和咸丰县为研究对象,通过对比基于局地因子、自相关因子和邻域因子的3种Logistic模型的模拟参数的一致性和异质性来对比研究两地的格局分布规律。实验与分析结果表明,宣恩县和咸丰县的土地利用格局特征存在共同的驱动因子和聚集效应,具有共性;不同模型的模拟结果表明驱动因子在作用方向,大小方面存在差异,邻域因子在邻域尺度上表现出不同特征。研究结果对加深理解不同地区的土地利用分布格局特征的差异性,促进区域土地利用的规划、土地资源的合理开发与可持续发展战略的顺利实施具有一定的参考价值。     

Modelling the asymmetric behaviour of property yields: evidence from the UK office market

This paper examines the determinants of UK office market yields and their relative importance depending on overall monetary and financial conditions, with special attention given to the role of macroeconomic liquidity. To do so, we rely on a standard linear model as well as on non-linear one that allows for a transition between two possible regimes of liquidity conditions – accommodative or tight – both models accounting for possible trend reverting behaviour. The results of the study provide new insights to the discussion on property yield modelling. Whatever the type of modelling, linear or not, we find that in addition to its traditional drivers – notably risk-free interest rate and expected rental growth – money supply is a key factor of property yields. Moreover, depending on the evolution of the ratio of M2 to GDP, property yields evolve according to two regimes; in the one depicted as a normal liquidity regime, the property yields dynamics mainly obeys an error correcting mechanism which tends to counter excessive discrepancy between property yields and their fundamental value deduced from a Present Value type model, while in the second one, this mechanism is dominated by the impact of money supply growth which can induce increasing movements in the property prices, possibly turning to bubbles.     

Mapping mountain diversity: Ethnic minorities and land use land cover change in Vietnam's borderlands

In the complex agro-ecological conditions of Vietnam's northern borderlands, attempts by ethnic minority farmers to create sustainable livelihoods, along with the impacts of state development policies, have direct consequences for land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this paper we analyse the degree to which LULC has changed and diversified from 1999 to 2009 in Lào Cai Province and the underlying relationships with ethnic minority livelihood diversification strategies. We examine the correlation between LULC diversity and various socioeconomic and biophysical proxies using a spatial autoregressive model. Our findings indicate two major changes in LULC: an increase in closed canopy forest and substantial urban growth. LULC diversity increased between 1999 and 2009, suggesting a transition between land uses and/or a diversification of livelihood strategies. Socioeconomic proxies are significant predictors of LULC diversity in both years, while biophysical proxies are only effective predictors in 2009. In-depth interviews regarding state-led policies and ethnic minority livelihoods reveal some of the underlying mechanisms of such LULC transitions and associations.     

Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques

As a result of the socioeconomic transformation, the rapid urban expansion of cities and towns in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has predominately led to tremendous pressure on the limited natural resources and loss of productive lands. Indeed, the spatial patterns of urbanisation and their impacts on mountain resources and environment have received little attention, particularly in Oman. Predicting urban growth in the mountainous cities has the potential to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth patterns and the mountain topography. This study aims to analyse spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) (2008–2018) and simulate urban expansion (2008–2038) in Nizwa city, Al Dakhliyah governorate, Oman. Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov and geospatial techniques were utilised to assess and project urban growth and land cover changes. The analysis was based on three maps of LULC at equal intervals derived from satellite imageries: Landsat TM for 1998, 2008 and 2018, along with topographic spatial layers (elevation, aspects, and terrain slopes) derived from the ASTER digital elevation model. In addition, other spatial parameters (population density, proximity to urban centres, and proximity to major roads,) were incorporated in the simulation process. The findings revealed that the actual LULC change during 2008–2018 was 12,014 ha of net urban growth (418.5 % change), while the simulated change was expected to be 14,985 ha by 2028, with a total of 37,465 ha increase in the built-up area and urban growth by 2038. Although the topographic variability will control LULC changes, the urban expansion overly will occupy the arable land across the valleys along with the flat areas. During the next two decades, the built-up areas will dominant, with a large percentage of vacant land (net loss 12,813 ha) and vegetation cover (net loss 35 ha) will be gradually converted into residential land use. The output of the simulations in this research could serve not only as spatial guidelines for monitoring future trends of LULC dynamics, but also address the threats and deteriorates of urban sustainability in the Omani mountainous cities. Furthermore, identifying bare soils and vegetation areas that are susceptible to urbanisation is of value for the national strategy of future urban planning in Oman.     

Capitalized amenity value of urban wetlands: a hedonic property price approach to urban wetlands in Perth,Western Australia*

Up to 60 per cent of potable water supplied to Perth, Western Australia, is extracted from the groundwater system that lies below the northern part of the metropolitan area. Many of the urban wetlands are groundwater‐dependent and excessive groundwater extraction and climate change have resulted in a decline in water levels in the wetlands. In order to inform decisions on conserving existing urban wetlands, it is beneficial to be able to estimate the economic value of the urban wetlands. Applying the Hedonic Property Price approach to value urban wetlands, we found that distance to the nearest wetland and the number of wetlands within 1.5 km of a property significantly influence house sales price. For a property that is 943 m away from the nearest wetland, which is the average distance to the wetland in this study, reducing the wetland distance by 1 m will increase the property price by AU$42.40. Similarly, the existence of an additional wetland within 1.5 km of the property will increase the sales price by AU$6976. For a randomly selected wetland, assuming a 20 ha isolated circular wetland surrounded by uniform density housing, the total sales premium to surrounding properties was estimated to be around AU$140 million (AU$40 million and AU$230 million).     

‘If I want safe food I have to grow it myself’: Patterns and motivations of urban agriculture in a small city in Vietnam’s northern borderlands

Urban agriculture literature regarding the Global South reveals important knowledge gaps concerning spatial variations of food gardens across cityscapes, gardener motivations, and tensions with urban planning regulations, especially in locales beyond sub-Saharan Africa. In Vietnam, urban agriculture is growing in popularity and gaining media attention but there is little research as to why urban agriculture is practiced in smaller Vietnamese cities, especially those close to rural hinterlands. In this paper we investigate small-scale urban agriculture – or food gardens – in Lào Cai, a small upland city located on the Sino-Vietnamese border. We find a complex diversity of garden sizes and land management arrangements where gardens are built, including on state institutional land, thanks to informal arrangements. Gardener motivations focus predominantly on food safety concerns, contrasting with key motivations found elsewhere in the Global South. Throughout the city, albeit more so in newly urbanising sectors, this urban practice remains precarious due to irregular land access and confusing city authority regulations. We thus examine how urban residents are working to access safe food and contribute to their city’s urban food system while state officials tend to focus their priorities elsewhere.     

Values and attitudes of the urban public towards peri-urban agricultural land

Peri-urban agricultural landscapes around the world are undergoing rapid transformation due to urban expansion. While some landscape values are being protected by current land-use planning frameworks, we know little about the broader values and attitudes of the urban public shaping this transformation. The structure of the values assigned to peri-urban agricultural landscapes by residents of Melbourne, Australia was explored and related to stated landscape preferences and people's underlying values. Exploratory factor analysis was used to categorise assigned values in multifunctional, food and native biota groups, and stated preferences for photographs into four landscape categories: intensive landscapes, extensive landscapes, high tree cover and plantations. The structure of underlying personal values closely resembled other studies of environmental value orientations. Multiple regression analysis revealed that preferences for all landscape categories were predicted strongly by multifunctional assigned values. Significant relationships were also evident between all assigned value groups and the biospheric underlying value orientation. Attitudes towards residential development approaches were also related significantly to assigned but not underlying values. Assigned values appear therefore to mediate between underlying values and attitudes towards peri-urban landscapes. This research demonstrates that peri-urban agricultural landscapes are perceived as multifunctional systems by the urban public and are valued for a range of functions not typically included in land use policies. This study also suggests that in the context of rapid land use change, a variety of landscape types should be retained on the urban fringe for their benefit to the urban public, and synergies promoted between landscape functions.     

The impact of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on land and property values: A meta-analysis

Throughout the world, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has become a popular transit solution for cities wanting to improve urban mobility and economic opportunities through land and property value uplift (LVU). However, the relevant literature reports a mixed impact of BRT on land and property values. This research aims to explain the variation in impacts by conducting a meta-analysis of 23 empirical studies which have estimated the amount of LVU that is attributable to BRT. Using a random-effects model, four categories of factors that may influence estimates of BRT impacts are analysed: BRT system characteristics; land type and accessibility; research methods; and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the case study. Several factors were found to have a statistically significant impact on estimated LVU impacts from BRT systems including maturity of the BRT system; property or land; type of value (asking price, assessed price or sales price); the distance to BRT stations; the research method; and the geographical location of the BRT system. Using the quantifiability advantages of meta-analysis techniques, we further conducted a broad comparison between our results and the findings from one previous meta-analysis study on Rail-Based Transit (RBT), and discussed how the LVU impact differs between BRT and RBT. The findings from this research suggest several key recommendations for future studies into the impact of BRT on land and property values. They also inform policy analyses on transit funding through land and property value gains.     

Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007)

In the past few decades, urbanisation has become a major phenomenon in European cities, thus representing one of the key human land cover changes with socio-economic and environmental impacts. In the Lisbon metropolitan region it is estimated that 17% of natural and farmland have been transformed into artificial areas. Since the end of 1990s, specific EU guidelines have been issued to contain urban sprawl and preserve agricultural land. Spatial planning in Portugal obviously is integrating these assumptions into the statutory land-use master plans. But what is the performance of this land use planning system regarding land cover evolution itself? Based on the Lisbon metropolitan region (LMR), one of the major areas of urban growth in Portugal, we examine spatio-temporal land cover patterns between 1990 and 2007 by integrating cross-matrix analysis, spatial metrics, and gradient analysis. Additionally, we overlay these land cover dynamics with municipal master plans that regulate land development in order to assess the compliance levels of this land-use regulatory system. Results indicate that: artificial areas are growing by coalescence and/or by scattered development along an urban–rural gradient; agricultural land is reducing and fragmentation is increasing to enlarge peri-urban spaces; there are high levels of conversion of agricultural land into urban land in protected areas, thus showing a lack of compliance to the land use regulatory system visible in the existing gaps between the original land-use assignments of the master plan and the actual developments.