Housing Market Fluctuations and the Implicit Price of Water Quality: Empirical Evidence from a South Florida Housing Market

In this study we utilize a hedonic property price analysis to examine changes in the implicit price of water quality given housing market fluctuations over time. We analyze Martin County, Florida waterfront home sales from 2001 to 2010 accounting for the associated significant real estate fluctuations in this area through flexible econometric controls in space and time. We apply a segmented regression methodology to identify housing market price instability over time, interact water quality with these identified market segmentations, and embed these interactions within a spatial fixed effect model to further account for any spatial heterogeneity in the waterfront market. Results indicate that water quality improvement is associated with higher property values. We find no evidence that the economic downturn crowded out concern for the water quality in this area. We further impute an implicit prices of $2614, evaluated at the sample mean, for 1 % point increase in the water quality grade.     

基于动态视角的中国劳动力供给决策实证分析--以杭州出租车司机为例

生命周期劳动供给理论预测工人的劳动供给对短期工资波动有正向的反应,然而不少研究发现国外出租车司机劳动供给弹性是负的。国内出租车司机的情况如何呢？文章用杭州出租车GPS 行程数据分析了司机的内延性和外延性劳动供给。为解决由测量误差和同事效应产生的内生性问题,我们用司机当天遇到的长途载客次数作为其每小时工资的工具变量,进而探讨每小时工资对司机劳动供给时间的影响。我们发现,杭州出租车司机的内延性和外延性劳动供给工资弹性均显著为正,这说明政府增加司机每公里燃油补贴等政策的确能激励司机增加劳动供给。另外,这也说明放松出租车市场的价格管制能使司机更好地根据市场需求优化自己的工作决策。     

Dynamic forecasting of monetary exchange rate models: Evidence from cointegration

The Frenkel-Bilson and Dornbusch-Frankel monetary exchange rate models are used to estimate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate. By using Johansen's multivariate cointegration, up to three cointegrating vectors were found between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. This means that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Based on error correction models, two monetary models outperform the random walk model at the three-, six-, and 12-month forecasting horizons. Therefore, monetary exchange rate models are still useful in forecasting exchange rates.     

The response to incentives and contractual efficiency: Evidence from a field experiment

We use data from a field experiment to estimate worker reaction to incentives and the optimality of piece-rate contracts. Our estimate of the elasticity of output with respect to piece rates is 0.39. Regression methods cannot predict performance under hypothetical contracts. Therefore, we apply structural econometric methods (without imposing profit maximization) to evaluate observed-contract optimality. Using profit as a metric, we estimate the distance between observed and profit-maximizing contracts to be negligible. This suggests that observed contracts closely approximate optimal contracts under asymmetric information about worker ability. Under complete information, the firm could increase expected profits by 14 percent keeping workers indifferent to the observed piece-rate contract. Profits could increase between 44 and 49 percent if the firm exploited information about ability to reduce worker utility to the outside alternative.     

生态系统服务价值对土地利用变化的动态响应——基于2000～2012年安徽省淮南土地利用的经验证据

土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值具有重要影响。文章在构建生态系统服务价值对土地利用的动态响应模型及因子影响力系数估算模型的基础上,基于安徽淮南市土地利用变化的经验数据,实证检验了该研究区域生态系统服务价值对土地利用的响应特征,并探究了不同土地利用类型对生态系统服务价值的影响力大小。研究结果表明,该研究区域生态系统服务价值对土地利用程度的响应较大,土地利用程度对生态系统服务价值具有负效应,生态系统服务价值呈现出先增后减的倒"U"型变化趋势,其中,该区域耕地和建设用地对其生态系统服务功能的影响最大。因此,淮南市今后的发展一定要优化土地利用结构,注重生态环境质量,从而实现土地资源利用的可持续发展。     

The Model of a Gender-Segregated Low-Income Economy Reconsidered: Evidence from Uganda

This paper examines Darity's model of gender-segregated low-income agrarian society in light of evidence from Uganda. It identifies three important features of the interactions between men and women which are likely to have economic effects but which are subsumed within Darity's schematic presentation. It suggests a reformulation of the Darity model in terms of a bargaining framework. This facilitates greater insights into gendered economic processes that otherwise are ignored, and investigation of a wider range of macro outcomes.     

The energy-GDP nexus: Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries

The Pacific Island countries are small island economies that are increasingly dependent on energy for growth and development, yet highly susceptible to climate change. Thus, the relationship between energy consumption and GDP is crucial for realizing their future development and growth objectives. This article tests for Granger causality and provides long-run structural estimates for the relationship between energy consumption, GDP and urbanization for a panel of Pacific Island countries. For the panel as a whole in the long-run there is bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and GDP and these variables exert a positive impact on each other. A 1% increase in energy consumption increases GDP by 0.11%, while a 1% increase in GDP increases energy consumption by 0.23%. The findings suggest that for the panel as a whole these countries should increase investment in energy infrastructure and regulatory reform of energy infrastructure to improve delivery efficiency, continue to promote alternative energy sources and put in place energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage. These strategies seek to realize the dual objectives of reducing the adverse effects of energy use on the environment, while avoiding the negative effect on economic growth of reducing energy consumption.     

住房保障政策瞄准效率及其影响因素——来自北京市廉租房和经济适用房政策的实证

为探讨住房保障政策效率,本文分别运用Probit模型和多元Logit模型,实证测算了北京市廉租房和经济适用房的瞄准效率及其影响因素。结果发现:(1)从住房保障政策瞄准效率看,廉租房明显高于经济适用房,并且,随着政府保障能力的提升,提高住房保障收入标准和瞄准效率之间将是一个两难选择;(2)在住房保障收入标准较低时,一些显性指标可以用来作为识别保障对象的辅助性工具;(3)从廉租房瞄准错误的原因看,目标家庭所在社区规模越大,出现第Ⅰ类瞄准错误的可能性越大。     

The Real Story of Housing Prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003

Despite the popular and public policy interest in housing prices, there have been few reliable published data for housing prices in Australia. In this article we aim to provide an authoritative account of prices for houses and apartments (units) in Australia from 1970 to 2003. Where possible we draw on data from land title offices or on studies that draw on these data, but we also draw on supplementary data in some cases. The first part of the article describes the major data sources of Australian house prices. The main body of the article provides our best estimates of median house and unit prices and real price indices in the capital cities and in the rest of Australia along with explanations for their derivations. We also estimate how improvements in housing quality have influenced real house prices.     

The Costs of Deception: Evidence from Psychology

Recently, it has been argued that the evidence in social science research suggests that deceiving participants in an experiment does not lead to a significant loss of experimental control. Based on this assessment, experimental economists were counseled to lift their de facto prohibition against deception to capture its potential benefits. To the extent that this recommendation is derived from empirical studies, we argue that it draws on a selective sample of the available evidence. Building on a systematic review of relevant research in psychology, we present two major results: First, the evidence suggests that the experience of having been deceived generates suspicion that in turn is likely to affect the judgment and decision making of a non-negligible number of participants. Second, we find little evidence for the reputational spillover effects that have been hypothesized by a number of authors in psychology and economics (e.g., Kelman, H.C., 1967. Psychological Bulletin. 67, 1–11; Davis, D.D. and Holt, C.A., 1993. Experimental Economics. Princeton University Press, Princeton). Based on a discussion of the methodological costs and benefits of deception, we conclude that experimental economists' prohibition of deception is a sensible convention that economists should not abandon.     

Rural to Urban Migration as a Household Decision: Evidence from Kenya

A simple intertemporal expected-utility model for the household is developed to explore the determinants of split and family migration. Split migration occurs when the household head moves from a rural to an urban area first, and the rest of the family remains behind to join him later. Family migration occurs when the household moves together. The validity of the theoretical model is tested using data from Kenya. The findings support the predictions of the theoretical model; specifically, the results suggest that a large number of dependents may increase the likelihood of split migration.     

公允价值的收益波动性与市场反应——来自中国上市商业银行的证据

本文以中国上市商业银行为样本,对中国新会计准则实施后公允价值收益波动性及其经济后果进行了考察。研究结果发现,公允价值计量属性的采用并未导致净利润波动性的增大;市场也没有将公允价值计量增加的收益波动性视为风险要素而予以定价;银行股票价格也未对公允价值收益波动性作出反应。这说明,中国股票市场对公允价值收益波动性反应不显著,公允价值加速器效应在我国股票市场并不存在。本研究结论对完善中国公允价值计量体系、加强金融市场会计监管具有借鉴意义。     

The Czech Labour Market in Transition: Evidence from a Micro Study

In contrast to the other countries in eastern and central Europe, unemployment has so far increased only modestly in the Czech Republic. Results are reported from a panel survey of a sample of initially unemployed workers in the industrial centre of Ostrava, interviewed in three rounds during 1993. Results are reported regarding the wage in the former job, the reservation wage, the wage in a new job and the minimum acceptable wage in another job for those who have become employed during the panel study. Finally, results from estimating a hazard function for leaving unemployment are reported.     

The allocation of entrepreneurial efforts in a rent-seeking society: Evidence from China

This paper considers four types of entrepreneurial efforts: productive activities, aggressive rent seeking, defense against rent extraction, and leisure. It examines how entrepreneurs allocate efforts when facing dual-dealing relationships with politicians in a rent-seeking society: entrepreneurs not only pursue additional benefits through rent seeking, but also try to avoid extortions by politicians. Using unique city-level and firm-level data across China, we demonstrate that Chinese entrepreneurs survive in a twisted world: ordinary entrepreneurs would desire better institutional environment, but if institutional improvement is not available, they would prefer political connections which are often preoccupied by special interest groups and/or large-sized firms.     

Willingness to Pay to Reduce Mortality Risks: Evidence from a Three-Country Contingent Valuation Study

Valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. Typically such risks are monetized using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). Since the majority of the lives saved by environmental policies are those of older persons, there has been much recent debate about whether the VSL should be lower for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years. We conducted a contingent valuation survey in the UK, Italy and France designed to answer this question. The survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol. Our results suggest that the VSL is €1.022 million or €2.264 million, depending on whether we use median or mean WTP. The VSL is not significantly lower for older persons, but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Income is positively and significantly associated with WTP. The income elasticities of the WTP increase gradually with income levels and are between 0.15 and 0.5 for current income levels in EU countries. We use the responses to the WTP questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy. The value of a loss of one year’s life expectancy is €54,000 or €163,000.     

信誉的价值:以网上拍卖交易为例

本文使用网上拍卖交易数据,就卖者信誉对市场交易的影响进行了实证研究。我们发现,卖者的信誉评价一方面影响物品成交的价格,另一方面还对物品拍卖成功的概率有着显著的正面影响;但相对来说,卖者的信誉评价对后者的效果比对前者要更显著。这是本文的主要发现。该结果验证了在一个没有政府干预、近乎自由放任的“虚拟”市场上信誉机制的积极作用。     

The response of firms to eligibility thresholds: Evidence from the Japanese value-added tax

It is common to define benefit eligibility for small business policies by restrictions on the firm size. This paper documents the effects of the value-added tax (VAT) threshold in Japan, focusing on the incentives for a large firm to “masquerade” as many small firms by separately incorporating business segments. A comparison of the corporate size distributions before and after the VAT introduction of 1989 shows a clustering of corporations just below the threshold—a pattern that is attributable to the behavioral responses. To rule out the confounding influences of the changes in the company attributes over the years, we applied a semiparametric density decomposition technique developed by DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (DiNardo J., Fortin N.M., Lemieux T., Labor market institutions and the distribution of wages, 1973–1992: a semiparametric approach. Econometrica 1996; 64; 1001–1044). This study suggests that the masquerading behavior by firms may be commonplace in other settings.     

Crowding out of private support to the elderly: Evidence from a demogrant in Mexico

To examine whether private support dampens or reinforces the impact of redistributive policies, this paper estimates the effect of an exogenous increase in the income of the elderly, caused by a recent demogrant in Mexico, on the amount of private transfers they receive. My instrumental variables strategy overcomes the endogeneity of income that typically contaminates estimates and, unlike related studies that use natural or policy experiments in reduced-form estimations, it yields evidence of a positive bias. This suggests that an unobservable characteristic is positively correlated both with income and private transfer receipt and that treating income as exogenous could lead to an underestimation of the crowding out effect. In contrast, my preferred estimates are negative, significant and not far from minus one, implying an almost complete crowding out. My findings suggest that private transfers could neutralize the changes in the public transfers for the elderly.     

The take-off of an interactive innovation: Evidence from China

An interactive innovation can be defined as an end-user application which is subject to network effects at both the demand and supply sides. As a result of network effects, the diffusion of such an innovation is predicted to follow a take-off curve coinciding with the advent of a critical mass of adopters. The current literature on innovation diffusion, mainly focusing on the demand-side dynamics, such as information cascades and herding behaviors among potential adopters, is not sufficient to explain the take-off (or the failure) of interactive innovations. In this paper, we present and examine a case study of the take-off of an interactive innovation, namely the caller-ring-back-tone (CRBT) and mobile music - mobile value-added services (MVAS) - in China. We find that supply-side dynamics, such as choices of platform strategies, helped drive the take-off of this innovation within China's institutional boundaries. The paper makes a contribution in two ways: first, it presents an ‘inside-out’ view of a unique case of take-off phenomenon; and, second it provides an integrated view combining factors from both the demand and supply sides to explain the take-off phenomenon, which is rare in empirical studies.