The Dynamics of Appraisal Smoothing

We investigate the dynamics of appraisal smoothing in the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) index return using time‐varying asset pricing models. We find that smoothing is on average close to zero but varies substantially over time. From the inception of the NCREIF index in 1978 until the mid‐1990s, there was little evidence of smoothing. Smoothing has increased significantly since the mid‐1990s to the end of 2010. Smoothing increases when property prices or uncertainty increases. However, it decreases when sentiment in the property market is high or during recession periods. The substantial variation in the level of smoothing indicates that the volatility of unsmoothed appraisal‐based property returns would be significantly over‐ or under‐estimated for different periods if unsmoothed with a long‐run average smoothing.     

A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis

Appraisal smoothing, the reduced variability of real estate return series, has been attributed to appraisers being influenced by their own previous value estimates. This hypothesis is tested experimentally. Expert apppraisers from Atlanta were asked to value a hypothetical apartment project in Phoenix. Eight months later, these experts were asked to update their original appraisals given certain market and property changes. At this time, an independent group of Atlanta experts was asked to appraise the property based on the updated conditions. Results support the hypothesis of insufficient adjustment from previous value judgments.     

The Other Side of Eight Mile: Suburban Population and Housing Supply

This article establishes a linkage between decadal changes in suburban population and the supply of suburban dwelling units. It then estimates an econometric supply-and-demand model for 317 U.S. suburban areas for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s using the State of the Cities database. Suburban supply is more elastic than central city supply, with suburban estimates between +1.26 and +1.42. However, separate estimates by geographic region lead to supply elasticities of +0.89 for the northeastern quadrant of the United States and +1.86 for the remainder of the United States.     

Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Real Estate Price Indices

In this article three econometric issues related to private-equity return indices, such as real estate indices, are explored (smoothing, nonsynchronous appraisal and cross-sectional aggregation). Under certain assumptions, it is found that index returns based on appraisals follow an ARFIMA(1, d , 1) (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) process, where the long memory parameter ( d ) explains the level of smoothing and the AR and MA parameters represent the level of persistence in marketwide fundamentals and the nonsynchronous appraisal, respectively. The empirical results show that: (1) the level of smoothing in appraisal-based real estate indices is far less than assumed in many academic studies (2) there is weak evidence of nonsynchronous appraisal in the UK, IPD (Investment Property Databank) index and (3) marketwide fundamentals are highly persistent for the IPD index returns. On the other hand, there is no evidence of nonsynchronous appraisal or a persistent common factor in the U.S. NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) index.     

Gains from Specialization and Free Agency: The Story from the Gridiron

In the field of personnel economics, there are few opportunities to convincingly test for salary returns to specialization as against versatility. This paper performs such a test by modeling returns to performance measures associated with two different skills practiced by running backs in the National Football League. We find gains to both specialization and free agency with substantial predicted differences in returns for alternative skills. These differences vary across the salary distribution. In the top half of the salary distribution, model simulations show that specialists in either particular skill generate higher marginal returns than do versatile players.     

中国汽车：模仿的副作用

以模仿起步是一个国家汽车产业难以回避的阶段,但不努力走过这个阶段甚至以模仿为长期商业模式,必将体验到这种"兴奋剂"的副作用。     

The Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique: An Alternative to the Adjustment Grid Methods

This study presents a new appraisal technique, dubbed the Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique, which vastly reduces the subjectivity of the traditional adjustment grid methods while eliminating the need to adjust for subject-comparable differences on a piecemeal basis. Any number of appraisers who apply this technique to the same property at the same point in time will get the exact same estimate of value. The technique avoids piecemeal adjustments by capturing all subject-comparable differences in a single measure. Using single-family sales data, the technique is found to be more accurate than any of the adjustment grid methods and hedonic price regression estimation procedures.     

Story spaces: a methodological contribution

This paper draws attention to methodological opportunities evident in diverse approaches to story. Empirical work from Organisational Behaviour is placed alongside empirical work in Science Technology Studies and a case made for diversity and detail in deploying story in studies of work, technology and employment.     

房屋拆迁估价的问题及对策研究

房屋拆迁估价是补偿安置的基础和依据，是房屋拆迁工作中的重要内容，直接影响到拆迁人和被拆迁人的切身利益。在研究房屋拆迁估价中存在问题的基础上，提出了解决问题的相关对策。     

The Use of Performance Appraisal Systems: Evidence from Dutch Establishment Data

Using Dutch data, we examine the characteristics of establishments that operate performance appraisal systems. Our estimates provide a couple of interesting results: (1) Multitasking and teamwork play a role in the use of performance appraisal systems. (2) While a shared corporate culture, the sharing of information, and a professional personnel management emerge as positive determinants, unions appear to play a negative role. (3) Employers fostering career development and promotion opportunities make greater use of performance appraisal. (4) Public sector affiliation plays a negative role.     

The European Framework for Regulating Telecommunications: A 25-year Appraisal

Review of Industrial Organization - The European telecommunications sector has been radically transformed in the past 25 years: from a group of state monopolies to a set of increasingly...     

The Swedish Model: Relevant for Other European Countries?

By the late 1970s, supply-side theory had become something of a new economic orthodoxy. From the supply-side perspective, labour market inflexibility explains mass unemployment. In this context the presumably greater flexibility of the labour market in the USA was seen as an explanation of its superior employment record relative to European economies. Unlike most European countries, Sweden, which is highly regulated, does reasonably well in employment terms. The authors conclude that the Swedish model has proved its value with regard to labour market policy, especially with regard to the duration of unemployment, and that the Swedish model still contains relevant characteristics for other European countries. Active labour market policy is a way out of the unemployment trap. The active labour market policy may serve as an alternative for deregulation in order to augment the flexibility of the labour market.     

领导成员交换对主管评估行为的影响研究

近年来,评估者行为成为绩效评估研究领域的新焦点,它会受到自身动机/ 特征、受评者特征、评估者与受评者二元关系、组织评估制度等多方面因素的影响。本文设定主管为评估者,选择评估者与受评者二元关系中的领导成员交换（LMX）作为主要研究变量,探究LMX 与主管评估行为之间的关系。通过231 份有效问卷数据统计结果发现,LMX 显著正向影响主管宽大评估行为,LMX 水平越高,评估结果越趋向宽大;反之LMX 显著负向影响主管准确评估行为,LMX 水平越低,评估结果越趋向准确。在研究中引入管理性评估目的作为调节变量,当处于低情境下的绩效评估管理性目的时,LMX 对主管评估行为影响与主效应保持一致,但处于高情境下的绩效评估管理目的时,无论LMX 水平高低与否,主管都会趋向采取准确评估行为。     

Urban Growth: A View from the Supply Side

Traditionally, models of urban growth have focused on demand factors. Housing has been the primary area of interest since it uses a great deal of land and thus is a major shaper of urban growth and structure. This emphasis on demand is sound in principle: consumer demand drives developer location and land using decisions, since developers' locational choices are derived from consumer preferences. This reasoning will pertain as long as developers can meet consumer preferences without difficulty. In actuality such preferences can only be met, within consumer budget constraints, by working within existing and often constraining institutional settings. This paper explores urban growth, from the supply side by examining residential developer location criteria as obtained from surveys. These behavioral findings are then used to obtain allocation functions for a simulation model. The allocation functions are based on the stated locational preferences of developers. The resulting simulation output is compared with actual growth in the Greater Vancouver Region of British Columbia for the period 1971–1975. The results are encouraging and point up areas where additional work is needed to better test the utility of the behavioral data in forecasting urban growth.     

Performance Appraisal Systems: Determinants and Change

Using establishment data from the Australian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey, this paper estimates the determinants of performance appraisal systems. The results indicate that performance appraisal is associated with workers having shorter expected tenure and greater influence over productivity. We argue these results reflect those circumstances in which the net benefits of performance appraisal are likely to be greatest. The results also show that complementary human resource management practices, such as formal training and incentive pay, are associated with an increased likelihood of performance appraisal, but that union density is associated with a reduced likelihood of performance appraisal.     

房地产项目经济评价中基准收益率设定的探讨

目前我国在项目投资评价中仍采用在经济条件下制定的基准收益率,这已经不符合我国目前市场经济的要求。房地产作为我国的支柱性产业,更不适合采用此基准收益率。借鉴目前国际上使用较为广泛成熟的加权平均资本成本方法,提出适合我国国情的基准收益率的确定方法。