On the theory of reference-dependent preferences

A theory is proposed in which preferences are conditional on reference points. It is related to Tversky and Kahneman’s reference-dependent preference theory, but is simpler and deviates less from conventional consumer theory. Preferences conditional on any given reference point satisfy conventional assumptions. Apart from a continuity condition, the only additional restriction is to rule out cycles of pairwise choice. The theory is consistent with observations of status quo bias and related effects. Reference points are treated as subject to change during the course of trade. The implications of endogeneity of reference points for behaviour in markets are investigated.     

A spectrum of equilibration processes in game theory

In game theory, four dynamic processes converging towards an equilibrium are distinguished and ordered by way of agents' decreasing cognitive capacities. In the eductive process, each player has enough information to simulate perfectly the others' behavior and gets immediately to the equilibrium. In epistemic learning, each player updates his beliefs about others' future strategies, with regard to their sequentially observed actions. In behavioral learning, each player modifies his own strategies according to the observed payoffs obtained from his past actions. In the evolutionary process, each agent has a fixed strategy and reproduces in proportion to the utilities obtained through stochastic interactions. All along the spectrum, longer term dynamics makes up for weaker rationality, and physical relations substitute for mental interactions. Convergence, if any, is towards an always stronger equilibrium notion and selection of an equilibrium state becomes more sensitive to context and history. The processes can be mixed if associated to different periods, agents or mechanisms and deepened if obtained by formal reasoning principles.     

An experimental study of persuasion bias and social influence in networks

In many areas of social life, individuals receive information about a particular issue of interest from multiple sources. When these sources are connected through a network, then proper aggregation of this information by an individual involves taking into account the structure of this network. The inability to aggregate properly may lead to various types of distortions. In our experiment, four agents all want to find out the value of a particular parameter unknown to all. Agents receive private signals about the parameter and can communicate their estimates of the parameter repeatedly through a network, the structure of which is known by all players. We present results from experiments with three different networks. We find that the information of agents who have more outgoing links in a network gets more weight in the information aggregation of the other agents than under optimal updating. Our results are consistent with the model of “persuasion bias” of DeMarzo et al. (2013. Q. J. Econ., 909) and at odds with an alternative heuristic according to which the most influential agents are those with more incoming links.     

A common pool theory of supranational deficit ceilings

The budget deficit bias is modeled as the result of a domestic common pool problem and of an international externality. Deficits can be used to finance both unproductive and productive public spending. An optimally set supranational deficit ceiling is examined and welfare is compared to the unconstrained outcome and to the case of nationally set deficit ceilings. The supranational deficit ceiling is found to be welfare improving relative to similar national arrangements, but does not fully eliminate the deficit bias unless combined with a domestic fiscal institution allowing for precommitment to productive public spending.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

Individually rational, budget-balanced mechanisms and allocation of surplus

We investigate the issue of implementation via individually rational ex-post budget-balanced Bayesian mechanisms. We show that all decision rules generating a nonnegative expected social surplus are implementable via such mechanisms if and only if the probability distribution of the agents’ type profiles satisfies two conditions: the well-known condition of Crémer and McLean [1988. Full extraction of the surplus in Bayesian and dominant strategy auctions, Econometrica 56, 1247–1257] and the Identifiability condition introduced in this paper. We also show that these conditions are necessary for ex-post efficiency to be attainable with budget balance and individual rationality, and that the expected social surplus in these mechanisms can be distributed in any desirable way. Lastly, we demonstrate that, like Crémer–McLean condition, the Identifiability condition is generic if there are at least three agents.     

The impact of information-based interventions on conservation behavior: A meta-analysis

Interest in using information-based interventions to induce energy and water conservation has increased in recent years but have shown mixed evidence of their effectiveness. This paper seeks to answer two main questions - whether these programs are broadly effective in inducing conservation, and what are the most effective versions of these programs. Using a meta-analysis of 116 studies, we examine the effects of information-based interventions on residential customers' consumption of electricity, gas, and water. We find evidence of publication bias in this literature. After correcting for publication bias, meta-analysis results indicate that information-based interventions reduce consumption by an average of 6.24%, 95% CI [-10.72, -1.76]. In addition, we find that studies employing RCTs find smaller conservation effects, (-5.2%, 95% CI [−9.53, −0.51]). Our results show that the effectiveness of information-based interventions at the household level are significantly larger than those at the aggregate level (such as dorms and buildings). Finally, interventions with a shorter duration or with more frequent reporting show larger estimated effect sizes.     

个体创造力的跨层次影响因素:个体目标取向与团队自省

个体创造力是团队成功乃至组织获得竞争优势的源泉,从多个层次综合考察个体创造力的影响因素具有重要意义。基于目标取向理论与个体—情境互动理论,将团队自省纳入个体目标取向对个体创造力影响的研究中。通过对72个研发团队(含364个团队成员)样本的调查分析,得出实证研究结果:个体学习目标取向和绩效证明目标取向都对个体创造力具有显著的正向影响,且团队自省可以显著调节(增强)其对个体创造力的影响作用;个体绩效回避取向对个体创造力具有显著的负向影响,且团队自省可以显著调节(减弱)个体绩效回避取向对个体创造力的影响作用。     

Sen’s criticism of revealed preference theory and its ‘neo-samuelsonian critique’: a methodological and theoretical assessment

This paper evaluates how Amartya Sen’s critique of revealed preference theory (RPT) stands against the latter’s contemporary, ‘neo-Samuelsonian’ version. Neo- Samuelsonians have argued that Sen’s arguments against RPT are innocuous, in particular once it is acknowledged that RPT does not assume away the existence of motivations or other latent psychological or cognitive processes. Sen’s claims that preferences and choices need to be distinguished and that external factors need to be taken into account to analyze the act of choice then appear to be irrelevant. However, while it is true that contemporary revealed preference theory (CRPT) partially evades Sen’s critique, I show that the latter is still relevant outside the restricted areas of consumer choice and market dynamics. In particular, Sen’s views regarding the importance of incomplete preferences and the multiplicity of levels of agency can hardly be integrated into the framework of CRPT. This is a significant limit, given the imperialistic claims of some of the proponents of the latter.     

A theory of classification and evolution of technologies within a Generalised Darwinism

This paper here proposes a theory of classification and evolution of technology based on taxonomic characteristic of interaction between technologies that is an under-studied field of research in economics of technical change and management of technology. The proposed classification of technologies, in a broad analogy with evolutionary ecology of parasites, within a theoretical framework of Generalised Darwinism, is: (1) parasitic technologies, (2) commensal technologies, (3) mutualistic technologies, (4) symbiotic technologies. This theory here suggests the property of mutual benefaction from interaction between different technologies and the theorem of not independence of any technology to explain and predict characteristics and evolutionary pathways of technologies over time. Overall, then, this study may be useful for bringing a new perspective in economics of innovation to categorise and analyse the interaction between technologies that can be a ground work for development of more sophisticated concepts to explain and predict the evolution of technology and generalise aspects of technological change in human society.     

Joint Determination of Current Classroom Performance and Additional Economics Classes: A Binary/Continuous Model

Students in DEEP high schools are found to score higher on the Test of Economic Literacy but are less likely to want another course in economics than students who are not in DEEP schools.     

Economic Benefits of Management Reform in the Gulf of Mexico Grouper Fishery: A Semi-parametric Analysis

This paper uses a semi-parametric empirical model to estimate the economic benefits of adopting a property rights-based management program in the Gulf of Mexico grouper fishery. The analysis predicts that a rights-based fleet will be comprised of fewer, more cost efficient boats than under the current controlled access management program. Results indicate that in the year of our data, 1993, the smaller, more productive fleet could harvest the allowable reef fish catch at a cost saving of $2.92–$7.07  million, 12–30% less than under controlled access management. Recent tightening of controlled access regulations suggest that the benefits from management reform could be even larger in the current day fishery.      

A nonbehavioral theory of saving

The article presents a demand-driven model, where the saving rate of households at the bottom of the income distribution becomes the endogenous variable that adjusts for full employment to be maintained over time. An increase in income inequality and the current account deficit and a consolidation of the government budget lead to a decrease in the saving rate of the household sector. Such a process is unsustainable because it leads to an increase in the debt-to-income ratio of the households and its maintenance depends on some kind of asset bubble. This framework allows us to better understand the factors that led to the Great Recession in the United States and the dilemma of the present and the future regarding a repeat of this unsustainable process or secular stagnation.     

A Syntactic Approach to Knowledge in Finite Games of Perfect Information

In this paper I present a syntactic approach to modeling the interactive knowledge of rationality in finite games of perfect information. This approach allows for a more transparent interpretation. In particular, we have the intuitive picture of viewing knowledge as the input and decisions as the output of a player’s deliberation. This distinction is blurred in the semantic state-space approach.     

后发企业技术创新路径被动锁定成因与应对策略研究

由于技术起步较晚,相比于发达国家企业,我国企业属于后发企业。虽然我国企业凭借早期的技术引进与技术学习,大大提高了自身技术水平,增强了企业竞争力,但企业技术创新速度远远落后于发达国家。在文献研究的基础上,分析了我国后发企业面临的外部环境以及企业内部技术创新路径选择,结合技术发展阶段,深入挖掘后发企业技术创新路径被动锁定成因,并提出相应的解决策略,以帮助后发企业消除技术创新障碍。     

论创业活动研究的三个层次及其作用机制

伴随着创业活动的日趋频繁和普遍,对创业活动的研究已经成为近期国内外学术研究的热点。在结合前人对创业活动研究的基础上,尝试提炼出创业活动研究的三个层次,并初步构建出创业活动三个层次中各个要素之间的作用机制。     

A general approach to the evaluation of nonmarket goods

The paper considers the evaluation of a nonmarket good on the basis of a complete conditional demand system. It introduces two conditions allowing to identify a generally unique underlying preference ordering which can be employed for evaluation. The functional structure of the corresponding expenditure/indirect utility function and the demand system is described. The conditions proposed turn out to be equivalent to the property of base level independence in the equivalence scale literature. The approach is operational.     

A path analysis of the cultivated land change in Hubei Province,China

Hubei Province is one of the critical grain production regions in China with the quantitative cultivated landand good natural condition; it plays an important role in grain security in China. However, owing to rapid economicgrowth, population pressures, anthropogenic activities, and natural disasters, the quality of the cultivated land hassignificantly decreased in recent years and environmental resources are under increasing stress. In order to research onthe mechanism of the change of the cultivated land, this paper analyzes qualitatively the influencing factors of thecultivated land change in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2004, and distinguishes the direct factors from indirect influentones by means of the approach of the path analysis. The result shows that the area of the rent land in the total non-agricultural land, the total population growth and the fixed asset investment are the main factors deciding the change ofthe cultivated land. Meanwhile, the density of the transportation network, the proportion of per capita income of ruralcitizens to that of urban citizens, non-agricultural gross domestic production’s share of the total GDP has a less directeffect but a more indirect influence on the decrease of the cultivated land in Hubei Province. The result means that whilesome factors have less direct influence on the change of the cultivated land, its indirect influence are significant, viceversa. Thus it’s necessary to adopt a comprehensive measurement to protect the cultivated land.