企业资产价格对宏观经济的影响——基于企业成本收益核算模型的理论和实证研究

本文首先基于企业成本收益核算模型,以一个新的理论框架分析了企业利润和资产价格对投资的影响.其次,用我国的投资、企业利润、资产价格的年度数据进行了实证研究.进而通过理论模型分析了资产价格与宏观经济稳定之间的关系.研究结果表明,我国投资与企业利润及资产价格(特别是房地产价格)之间存在显著的正相关关系,资产价格的稳定是宏观经济稳定运行的必要条件.最后,作者给出了政府穗定经济的具体政策建议.     

Investor sentiment,information and asset pricing model

We present an asset pricing model with investor sentiment and information, which shows that the investor sentiment has a systematic and significant impact on the asset price. The equilibrium price's rational term drives the asset price to the rational, and the sentiment term leads to the asset price deviating from it. In our model, the proportion of sentiment investors and the information quality could amplify the sentiment shock on the asset price. Finally, the information is fully incorporated into prices when sentiment investors learn from prices. The model could offer a partial explanation of some financial anomalies: price bubbles, high volatility, asset prices' momentum effect and reversal effect.     

Efficient ‘myopic’ asset pricing in general equilibrium: A potential pitfall in excess volatility tests

Excess volatility tests for financial market efficiency maintain the hypothesis of risk neutrality. This permits the specification of the benchmark efficient market price as the present discounted value of expected future dividends. By departing from the risk neutrality assumption in a stripped-down version of Lucas's general equilibrium asset pricing model, I show that asset prices determined in a competitive asset market and efficient by construction can nevertheless violate the variance bounds established under the assumption of risk neutrality. This can occur even without the problems of non-stationarity (including bubbles) and finite samples. Standard excess volatility tests are joint tests of market efficiency and risk neutrality. Failure of an asset price to pass the test may be due to the absence of risk neutrality rather than to market inefficiency.     

Structural Changes and the Scope of Inflation Targeting in Korea *

A small, open macroeconomic model that accounts for new financial accelerator effects (the effects of fluctuations in asset prices on bank credit and economic activity) is developed to evaluate various policy rules for inflation targeting. Given the conditions of asset markets and the fragility of the financial sector, monetary policy responses can potentially amplify the financial accelerator effect. Simulations are used to compare various forms of inflation targeting using a model that emphasizes long-term inflation expectations, output changes, and the asset price channels. The simulations suggest that a successful outcome can be obtained by adhering to simple forward-looking rules, rather than backward-looking policy rules. Furthermore, inflation targeting can contribute to price as well as output stability by helping to keep the financial accelerator from being activated. Inflation targeting in emerging economies can provide an environment conducive to long-term capital market development. [E51,F3,F4]     

Sentiment asset pricing model with consumption

We present an asset pricing model by incorporating investor sentiment. The sentiment equilibrium price could be decomposed to the rational term and the sentiment term, and the investor sentiment has a systematic and significant impact on the risky asset price. In the model, the sentiment term has a wealth-weighted average structure and the investor's wealth proportion could amplify the sentiment shock on the asset price. The model could offer a partial explanation of some financial anomalies in the stock market: the phenomenon of savings transfer to the stock market, pricing bubble and high volatility.     

消费传导视角下资产 价格对物价水平的影响

本文在生命周期-持久收入（LC PIH）模型基础上分析了资产价格波动对居民消费及物价水平的影响，发现资产价格波动可以通过预算约束效应、实际收入效应、预期收入效应与替代效应四个渠道影响资产持有者的消费行为，进而影响物价水平。在此基础上，本文运用ARDL UECM模型实证分析了资产价格对物价水平的影响，实证结果发现股票、房地产价格在长期内与物价存在相关关系，房地产价格是影响物价水平的重要因素，但股票价格对物价的影响不显著且不稳定。     

预期、资产价格与总需求-一个简明的理论框架

本文在风险资产价格和总产出空间内,建立了无风险资产、风险资产、信贷和商品市场的联立均衡模型。与传统结构性宏观模型的主要区别是明确地将风险资产价格融入模型当中,强调了预期与风险资产价格变化对总需求的影响,对于现阶段的宏观经济问题提供了有针对性且易于掌握的分析工具。比较静态分析中讨论了人民币升值预期、风险偏好下降、货币政策变动、扩张性财政计划以及外部需求下降等几种外部冲击对风险资产价格和总需求的影响。     

Two-period trading sentiment asset pricing model with information

We present a dynamic asset pricing model with investor sentiment and information, which shows that the investor sentiment plays a systematic and important role in the asset prices and the information is gradually incorporated into prices. The model has an analytical solution to the sentiment equilibrium price. We find that sentiment trading quantity not only increases the market liquidity, but also causes the asset prices' overreaction if the intensity of sentiment demand is more than a constant value. Therefore, the continuing overreactions result in a short-term momentum and a long-term reversal. The model could offer a partial explanation to some financial anomalies such as price bubbles, high volatility, asset prices' overreaction and so on.     

Real estate prices and systemic banking crises

The collapse of real estate prices has historically jeopardized banking stability and triggered systemic banking crises. This paper studies risk contagion in a banking system in real estate price shock by adopting complex network theory. Modelling the real estate-related asset as a common exposure of banks to the real estate market, we propose a model that incorporates two main risk contagion channels, i.e., the financial network and asset fire sales, and reveal how the real estate price shock is transmitted and propagated across banks. We demonstrate that banking stability is highly sensitive to the real estate price shock. Moreover, due to the particularly low liquidity of the real estate market, the asset fire-sales of real estate assets overwhelms the financial network, playing the dominant role in risk contagion. Our model can be adopted by regulators to conduct stress testing and to forge effective risk management strategies.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Asset‐Price Shocks in a Globalized Financial Market

In this paper, I study a model in which shocks to asset prices affect the real sector of the economy through a credit channel. As financial markets become internationally integrated, the economy becomes less vulnerable to domestic asset‐price shocks, but more vulnerable to foreign asset‐price shocks. To the extent that monetary policy stabilization is feasible and desirable, the globalization of financial markets shifts the focus of monetary policy from domestic asset prices to worldwide asset prices.     

Overreactions,Momentum, Liquidity,and Price Bubbles in Laboratory and Field Asset Markets

Laboratory asset markets provide an experimental setting in which to observe investor behavior. Over more than a decade, numerous studies have found that participants in laboratory experiments frequently drive asset prices far above fundamental value, after which the prices crash. This bubble-and-crash behavior is robust to variations in a number of variables, including liquidity (the amount of cash available relative to the value of the assets being traded), short-selling, certainty or uncertainty of dividend payments, brokerage fees, capital gains taxes, buying on margin, and others.

This paper attempts to model the behavior of asset prices in experimental settings by proposing a "momentum model" of asset price changes. The model assumes that investors follow a combination of two factors when setting prices: fundamental value, and the recent price trend. The predictions of the model, while still far from perfect, are superior to those of a rational expectations model, in which traders consider only fundamental value. In particular, the momentum model predicts that higher levels of liquidity lead to larger price bubbles, a result that is confirmed in the experiments. The similarity between laboratory results and data from field (real-world) markets suggests that the momentum model may be applicable there as well.     

Learning,estimation, and the stability of rational expectations

The stability of the rational expectations equilibrium of a simple asset market model is studied in a situation where a group of traders learn about the relationship between the price and return on the asset using ordinary least squares estimation, and then use their estimates in predicting the return from the price. The model which they estimate is a well-specified model of the rational expectations equilibrium, but a misspecified model of the situation in which the traders are learning. It is shown that for appropriate values of a stability parameter the situation converges almost surely to the rational expectations equilibrium.     

中国货币政策对资产价格波动反应的模拟分析

利用包含汇率波动和通胀预期的IS-Philips模型推导考虑资产价格的货币政策反应函数。在此基础上,分别以股价和房价作为资产价格的代理变量,模拟分析了资产价格波动对中国经济的影响。研究结果表明:考虑资产价格的货币政策在平抑产出和物价波动方面具有显著作用,但会增大利率波动幅度;考虑房价波动的货币政策比考虑股价波动的货币政策在平抑产出和物价波动方面具有更好的效果;与考虑股价波动的货币政策相比,考虑房价波动的货币政策对利率的冲击更小。     

Liquidity and Liquidation

The manager of a firm that is selling an illiquid asset has discretion as to the sale price: if he chooses a high (low) selling price, early sale is unlikely (likely). If the manager has the option to default on the debt that is collateralized by the illiquid asset, the optimal selling price depends on whether the manager acts in the interests of owners or creditors. We model the former case. In equilibrium the owner will always offer the illiquid asset for sale at a strictly higher price than he paid, and will default if he fails to sell. As a result, upon successful sales the illiquid asset changes hands at successively higher prices. We also consider a generalization of the model which permits sellers to finance sales using either debt or preferred stock, or both. This allows derivation of an optimal capital structure. We are indebted to seminar participants at the University of California, Los Angeles; University of California, Santa Barbara; Utah State University; University of Miami; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. We have received helpful comments from Tom Cooley.     

我国资产价格波动与货币政策关系研究

随着金融自由化的逐步推进,资本市场存量日益增大.这既体现了金融深化程度的提高,又意味着货币供应与国民经济主要指标之间稳定性的弱化.资产价格对货币政策的制订和执行会产生深刻的影响.其中股价、房价等资产价格在货币政策传导机制中扮演的角色越来越重要.本文从实证角度出发,通过构建VAR模型检验我国资产价格对货币政策的反应以及资产价格对货币政策目标的影响,发现资产价格、货币政策及货币政策目标间存在长期协整关系,资产价格对产出有正向冲击作用,股市显著影响通货膨胀,但房地产市场对通货膨胀推动作用不明显,资产价格受货币政策的冲击影响显著,其中股市对货币政策冲击的反应明显大于房地产市场.     

资产价格泡沫与货币政策应对——事先行动还是事后反应

资产价格泡沫的产生原因是多方面的,早期的研究更多地认为资产泡沫来自于投资者的非理性因素,但是随着金融自由化进程的推进,与经济金融发展水平不相适应的金融自由化也成为资产泡沫产生的一个重要原因。而对于资产价格泡沫的货币政策应对一直存在争议,一些学者主张货币政策应该忽略资产价格,而另一些学者则主张货币政策应该对资产价格作出反应。本文基于后一种观点,来探讨当预期资产价格将出现泡沫时,货币政策是该事先行动还是事后反应,为此,本文引入产出跨期配置的理论,来阐述货币政策应对资产价格泡沫的决策模型。     

流动性约束与货币政策的资产价格效应

本文在新凯恩斯主义分析框架下,基于一个动态随机模型探讨了代理人消费流动性约束下的货币政策的资产价格效应,得到下列结论：资产价格波动通过财富效应影响代理人的消费。以利率为操作目标的最优货币政策应对股价、房价等资产价格波动做出反应,而其反应强度依赖于受流动性约束的代理人所占的比重。由于资产价格波动导致了流动性约束的时变性,最优利率规则对股价、房价等资产价格波动的最优权重也具有时变性。本文的实证分析表明,我国央行对房价和股价波动的利率调整具有时变性,以及此次金融危机爆发期间显现的这种时变性特征,与本文理论分析结果相吻合。     

Real exchange rates,asset prices and terms of trade: A theoretical analysis

This paper develops a continuous-time two-country dynamic equilibrium model, in which the real exchange rates, asset prices, and terms of trade are jointly determined in the presence of nontradable goods. The model determines the relation between the financial markets and real goods markets in the world economy and their responses to various shocks under the home bias assumption. A positive domestic supply shock induces a positive return on the domestic asset markets and a deterioration of terms of trade that improves the foreign output and boosts the foreign asset markets. Demand shocks act in the opposite way. This model also analyses the impact of change in the relative price of nontradable to tradable goods on the terms of trade and asset markets. A higher productivity growth in tradable goods than in nontradable goods leads to a higher relative price of nontradable to tradable goods, which appreciates the real exchange rate, deteriorates the terms of trade, and depresses the domestic and foreign asset markets. A lower relative price of nontradable goods depreciates the real exchange rate, improves the terms of trade, and lifts both the domestic and foreign asset markets.     

The firm demand for liquid assets in an inflationary environment

Measures of inflation and the price level are added to the standard model of liquid asset demand and estimated with cross-section data on Brazilian manufacturing firms over a four-year period characterized by substantial inflation (annual rates of 19, 23, 34 and 35%). Results indicate that economies of scale exist in a model that is stable over time. Interest rates have a strong and elastic impact on liquid asset demand when inflation is explicitly controlled for although this result is not consistent across all subsets of data used. The usual assumption of a unitary price level elasticity of liquid asset demand is rejected and firms appear to conserve on liquid asset holdings as the rate of inflation increases suggesting more careful management of payments flows. Some of these findings contradict those of Ungar and Zilberfarb (1980). There are also some difference in behaviour across ownership groups: Brazilian firms do not exhibit economies of scale while multinationals do; and Brazilian firms adjust actual to desired balances faster than multinational firms.     

How fiscal policy affects housing market dynamics: Evidence from Spain

This paper studies how the announcements of fiscal law changes affect the real estate market, focusing on the case of Spain. An announcement of a future fiscal law change gives the opportunity to buyers to advance or delay purchases to maximize fiscal benefits. In particular, we study announcements and their posterior effects about the mortgage tax laws in 1998, 2010, 2011, and 2013 plus the VAT law in 2012. The paper is based on contextually rich data from 2004 through 2015 for Spain, provided by a real estate agent with a strong presence across the Spanish territory. We use two dependent variables to best capture the changes: time on market of a dwelling and the price discount of the dwelling. Simultaneity bias is avoided by considering that the degree of overpricing and atypicality affects time on market but not the selling price. The identification strategy is improved by considering the type of properties most affected by the changes versus the rest of properties, using a difference-in-difference estimation. We consider two tax policy announcements: income tax credit on dwelling purchases and VAT rate change on the purchases of new dwellings. In the case of the income tax credit, this fiscal policy affects only primary accommodations. In the case of the VAT tax rate, only new houses are affected. We show that credible fiscal policy announcements distort the housing market by temporarily decreasing dwellings’ time on market and their price discounts, to immediately and long-lastingly increase them just after the tax policy expires. There is a negative causal effect of tax policy announcements on the housing market.