中国全要素生产率变动的再测算:1978～2007年

中国经济在2003～2007年间年增长率都超过10%,这与前期文献对中国增长后劲乏力的悲观预测似不一致.本文使用并延展Holz(2006)的资本存量序列,通过要素收入份额可变的增长核算法,重新测算了我国改革开放以来的TFP增长率.研究发现,世纪之交前后的TFP增长率并不像其他文献所报告的那样接近于零甚至为负值,其原因在于前期的文献采用了不合适的投资流量指标,高估了资本存量的增长率,进而低估了TFP增长率.这一结果将有助于理解中国经济增长的可持续性.     

Competing Networks,Spatial and Industrial Concentration in the US Airline Industry

Abstract

The paper uses Gini decomposition analysis to evaluate changes in the spatial distribution and industry shares of total US air traffic, as well as analysing the decomposition components for individual airlines and airports for the period 1990–2002. The paper develops explicit relationships between two of the main decomposition schemes used in the income inequality literature and shows the insights that such analysis may provide for evaluation and examination of air transport networks and traffic distributions. A multi-dimensional Gini and its decomposition are derived using an adjustment method derived from the relationship between the two Gini decomposition schemes.     

Understanding Income Inequality in China: A Multi-Angle Perspective

Economic reforms have brought about spectacular growth and vast improvements of people’s living standards in China since 1978. In the meantime, unbalanced regional growth and income inequality have become two important concerns of future development. Most available studies on income distribution have either focused on the rural population or on the urban citizens. This paper stresses the importance of adopting a multi-angle approach to fully understand income inequality in China. We first use some top-down information to form a general picture of inequality for the whole country, and then use some bottom-up household survey data to explain in detail the development of inequality over time regarding rural/urban inequality, rural inequality, urban inequality and inter-regional inequality, the relative importance of different income sources to overall inequality. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

What has caused China’s economic growth?

Economic growth is driven by numerous factors. However, traditional economic theory focuses on certain key reasons, while ignoring the impact of other factors. Since 1978, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth, but also faces low per capita GDP. To clarify the driving forces behind this situation, we used per capita GDP to represent China’s economic growth and performed total factor analysis based on 13 variables in 7 socioeconomic dimensions using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the 40 years since China opened to the west in 1978. We found similar determinants in different regressions. Internal trade, privatization and investment were the primary factors driving Chinese economic development. Surprisingly, we found that the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth (per capita GDP) was weak. Education had a much smaller contribution than science and technology. Using per capita income as the dependent variable to provide a robustness test, we found that China’s income distribution has not paralleled its economic development and the distribution of the benefits of GDP growth to citizens must be improved. China’s experience demonstrates that promoting economic growth requires coordinated development of many factors, and that different policy preferences should be adopted to meet different economic development conditions.     

Accounting for Changes in Income Inequality: Decomposition Analyses for the UK, 1978–2008

We analyse income inequality in the UK from 1978 to 2009 in order to understand why income inequality rose very rapidly from 1978 to 1991 but then remained broadly unchanged. We find that inequality in earnings among employees has risen fairly steadily since 1978, but other factors that caused income inequality to rise before 1991 have since gone into reverse. Inequality in investment and pension income has fallen since 1991, as has inequality between those with and without employment. Furthermore, certain household types – notably the elderly and those with young children – which had relatively low incomes in the period to 1991 have seen their incomes converge with others.     

Linkages between income inequality,international remittances and economic growth in Pakistan

This paper explores the dynamic linkages between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth using time series data over the period of 1976–2006 in case of Pakistan. The cointegration analysis based on the bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth. Our results reveal that income inequality and international remittances enhance economic growth. The causality analysis based on innovative accounting approach shows bidirectional causal relationship between income inequality and economic growth and same is true for international remittances and income inequality. International remittances are cause of economic growth but not vice versa. Although we find support for Kuznets hypothesis but Pakistan is yet to benefit, in terms of reducing the gaps of income inequality, from the international flow of remittances and economic growth. The paper argues that, from a policy perspective, there is an urgent need for policy makers in Pakistan to reduce the widening gap of income inequality by focusing on income redistribution policies and to go beyond the traditional factors in balancing income inequality.     

The paradox of China's growing under-urbanization

It is commonly believed that China began the socialist era as a very under-urbanized country relative to its level of development and that it has been eliminating this urbanization gap during the post-1978 period as a result of its economic reforms. Our reexamination of the relationship between per capita income and urbanization that underpins the conventional view suggests that China was not under-urbanized before or during the early period of the reform. Actually, China's urbanization gap appeared and grew in the late period of reform despite mass migration from rural to urban areas. This growing urbanization lag is mainly due to the slow pace in eliminating restrictions on rural–urban migration during a period of rapid economic growth. We call attention to this emerging urbanization lag as it entails significant economic costs in employment and retards economic growth.     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

Structural shifts in the manufacturing export performance of oecd economies

This paper identifies structural shifts in manufacturing export performance of the major OECD economies. The particular emphasis of this study is to see whether the longer-run responses of a country's exports to the growth in world demand have undergone trend changes. The econometric work focuses on the time variation in income elasticities from an export demand model over the period 1963–89. It thus covers a period in which there was a substantial slow-down in world economic growth and in which the manufacturing sectors in advanced economies underwent substantial restructuring in the wake of the two oil-price shocks and the competitive challenges of Japan and the NICs. The exercise attempted to evaluate the relative successes and failures of the different OECD economies to maintain or improve their positions in the ‘higher quality’ (income elastic) segments of world trade. Evidence was found for trend improvements in the income elasticity for UK exports from the early 1980s onwards and a trend decline for that of the US over the same period. The effects of non-tariff protection against Japanese exports also showed up in our results and an attempt was made to separately identify its effects.     

The Role of Sustainability‐Related Strategies on the Biofuel Industry: Trends,Prospects and Challenges

The aim of this study is to elucidate the sustainability‐related strategies on the biofuel industry. Our empirical analysis is based on a time series data set covering diesel demand in Greece over the period 1978–2014 and on the basis of these estimates we make forecasts for biodiesel consumption in the coming years (2015–2030) under three alternative scenarios. Our approach utilizes unit root testing to investigate possible co‐integrated relationships among the sample variables. The empirical findings indicate that diesel demand is income and price inelastic in both the long and the short run, while biodiesel demand seems to have an upward trend over the simulated period. We argue that the importance of biofuel in the Greek energy balance will change the form of the existing business strategies towards issues such as sustainability, green entrepreneurship and corporate social responsibility to achieve the environmental goals set by the EU Energy Roadmap 2050. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

北京地方财政可持续发展的协整分析

地方财政可持续发展是财政收入、财政支出、经济发展三位一体的系统平衡与协调。本文对北京市1978-2012年的财政收入、财政支出和经济增长的协整检验结果表明其财政可持续发展能力比较好;Granger因果检验结果表明经济快速增长是北京市财政可持续发展的关键,但财政收入弹性较小、财政支出对经济的刺激作用不明显是影响财政可持续发展的深层问题;最后,从提高财政收入质量、提高财政支出效益和加强财政监管三方面提出了提升北京市财政可持续发展能力的建议。     

THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF LARGE DAM RESERVOIRS: U.S. EXPERIENCE, 1975–1995

Dam construction has been an important component of economic development initiatives in the United States. However, few comprehensive empirical studies examine the effects of such projects on local employment and income. This paper employs quasi-experimental control group methods to examine the effects of large dam reservoirs on county income, earnings, population and employment growth for dams opened in the U.S. during the period 1975–1984. The paper shows that large dam reservoirs have some statistically significant positive effects and tend to stimulate growth. There is considerable variation, however, with dams constructed for flood control purposes and dams further away from markets and large cities having less of an effect.     

On the Stability of the Excess Sensitivity of Aggregate Consumption Growth in the USA

This paper investigates whether there is time variation in the excess sensitivity of aggregate consumption growth to anticipated aggregate disposable income growth using quarterly US data over the period 1953–2014. Our empirical framework contains the possibility of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth and takes into account measurement error and time aggregation. Our empirical specification is cast into a Bayesian state‐space model and estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We use a Bayesian model selection approach to deal with the non‐regular test for the null hypothesis of no time variation in the excess sensitivity parameter. Anticipated disposable income growth is calculated by incorporating an instrumental variables estimation approach into our MCMC algorithm. Our results suggest that the excess sensitivity parameter in the USA is stable at around 0.23 over the entire sample period. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

行业生产率、行业发展速度和行业收入增长——基于SVAR模型的研究

运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,对中国1978年至2009年农业、制造业、金融业收入增长的内在机制进行研究,结果表明:农业收入对生产率和发展速度冲击的反应是发散式反馈效应,生产率与农业发展速度的变化导致农业收入有一个较小且短期的收入增长,之后农业收入出现大幅度的波动;制造业收入对生产率和发展速度冲击的反应是一个收敛式反馈效应,制造业生产率与发展速度可以稳定地长期地提高制造业收入水平;金融业生产率与行业发展速度引起行业收入长期大幅度的波动,金融衍生工具可以在一定程度上克服波动的负面影响。     

The Revenue Adequacy of Site Value Taxation in a Ricardian System of Economic Growth

A bstract . The federal administration has sought to reduce the growth of federal expenditures by shifting some government costs to state and local governments. An increased expenditure burden for the latter governments would require increased tax rates for existing types of taxes that have adverse impacts on economic incentives. Land taxes are considered as a source of revenue because of their efficiency aspects. Unfortunately this idea is all too often dismissed because of alleged revenue inadequacy. Thus an analysis is called for of the revenue adequacy of site value taxation in a Ricardian model of economic growth. The model allows analysis of revenue adequacy over time in an economic growth context that is suited for the long range tax-expenditure planning horizon with which local governments are faced. When revenue needs are primarily dependent upon the population size, and the fisc is initially operating at a deficit, for a land tax to permit attainment of balance, per capita rents must be increasing over time. Also when the economy's public service demand is primarily dependent upon income, deficits will not occur if rental share exceeds the share of income devoted to public output. Not all income goes to fiscal output, so rent eventually exceeds expenditures.     

我国公路货运超载与交通检查的博弈分析

文章描述了我国公路货运过程中超载的概念、现象以及我国交通法规中关于处理公路货运超载的相关条例,通过建立二者的动态博弈模型,分析货运过程中超载与交通检查之闻的不均衡收益．并采用倒推的方法求出达到二者理想均衡收益的条件,最后提出策略及建议使得二者在博弈过程中最终能达到最理想状态。     

Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis

This paper reassesses the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. Using recently developed panel methods on a data set of 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960-2004, our study confirms previous results of a bidirectional causality between finance and growth. In addition, we show significant differences among country groups when considering both long-run and short-run causality. While in low and middle income countries there is no supportive evidence of short-run causality between financial development and economic growth, in high income countries economic growth significantly affects financial development.     

河北省城镇居民收入与经济增长的关系实证

运用协整理论,构建了改革开放以来河北省城镇居民收入与河北省生产总值的误差修正模型;并运用1978￣2003年的实际数据进行了实证分析。在此基础上,分析了城镇居民收入与经济增长的长期均衡关系,并提出政策性建议。     

STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE REFORM PERIOD

We identify some empirical evidences for the structural changes in the determinants of regional growth, disparities and the convergence speed to the per capita GDP equilibrium during the reform period of 1978–1998 in China. We estimate a growth regression model by augmenting the Solow model with a provincial-level panel data set. The existence of conditional convergence is confirmed throughout the reform period, but the convergence speed is faster in the 1990s than the early reform period. Agro-industry-based rural development contributed to regional growth and eased interregional disparities in the early reform period. Foreign capital inflows took a significant leading role for regional growth during the 1990s, but aggravated interregional disparities. Education and non-state enterprises were among the other keys for regional growth throughout the reform period. These results implies that for achieving sustainable and balanced growth in future, it is essential to extend foreign capital investment to the interior regions, in association with further development of human capital resource and non-state local enterprises.     

What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend–discount model

We apply a dynamic dividend–discount model to analyse housing returns for eight euro area countries comprising over 90% of euro area GDP, both individually and as a panel. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is estimated for four variables – excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income – using quarterly data over the period 1978–2009. This empirical investigation – which allows for a decomposition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components – indicates that the bulk of the variability of euro area house price movements can be attributed to movements in fundamentals. There remains nonetheless an important but less sizeable influence of market-wide (or expected-return) variations in house prices. Country-specific estimation indicates considerable heterogeneity around the euro area result, both for what concerns long-term impacts and dynamics. Notably, changes in expected returns play a relatively strong role in the house prices of Ireland and Spain.