Spatial distribution of the specialization of arts

The hypothesis is that the major source of concentration of arts in different regions is due to agglomeration effects of specialized talents, city size, income, and quality of life. Twenty-nine large metropolitan areas are ranked and assessed for enhancing the climate for arts activity. Data on metropolitan areas in the United States on cost of living, transportation, employment, education, climate, crime, health care, recreation, city size, and per capita income are used as explanations for predominance of art in the 29 metropolitan areas. The results indicate that cities with larger populations and higher per capita income have greater concentrations of artistic activity. Other explanatory variables include factors associated with the quality of life. (JEL RIO, R23)     

Migration and the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis Revisited

This study investigates, using state-level data for the period 2000–2005, the Tiebout hypothesis (as extended by Tullock) of "voting with one's feet." This analysis differs from previous related studies not only in its adoption of more current migration and other data but also in other ways. First, unlike most earlier related studies, it includes a separate measure of the overall cost of living; second, it examines per pupil (rather than per capita) outlays on public primary and secondary education; and third, in addition to property taxes, it also focuses on per capita state income tax burdens. Inclusion of the last of these variables in the analysis is based on studies that have found the existence of a state income tax to have influenced migration patterns and other studies that have found higher state income tax levels to have resulted in reduced per capita income growth over time. Moreover, including both property tax burdens and income tax burdens broadens the scope of the hypothesis. Strong empirical support for the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis (as interpreted here) is obtained for the study period.     

剔除通胀因素后中国人均消费支出的实证分析

根据一般消费理论,收入和价格是决定消费两个主要因素。根据1980-2006年我国消费样本数据建立了我国消费模型,通过EVIEWS软件利用OLS方法进行参数估计,并对模型进行了检验。经过计量分析得知我国人均消费水平受GDP影响,且人均消费水平与人均CGDP呈明显线性关系。若我国人均GDP增长1%,则人均居民消费水平约增加0.71%。滞后的人均消费水平对我国当年的人均消费水平的影响是不显著的。     

Health human capital and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries

This paper investigates the effects of health human capital on the growth rate of per capita income in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries. Using an expanded Solow growth model, panel data, and a dynamic panel estimator, we find that the growth rate of per capita income is strongly and positively influenced by the stock of, and investment in, health human capital after controlling for other variables. The stock of health human capital affects the growth rate of per capita income in a quadratic way: the growth impact of health human capital decreases at relatively large endowments of health stock. Our estimates suggest that 22% and 30% of the transition growth rate of per capita income in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries respectively, can be attributed to health. The structure of the relationship between health human capital and the growth rate of income in Sub-Saharan African countries is similar to the structure of the relationship in OECD countries. This implies that increased stocks of health human capital leads to higher steady state income. Our results have interesting policy implications.     

Who Gains from the Demographic Dividend? Forecasting Income by Age

Changes in the population age structure are known to influence the total income per person, but little is known about whether the changes are equally shared across the population or are concentrated on particular age groups and/or birth cohorts. The answer to this question has potentially important implications for income inequality, human capital investment, and fertility decision-making. We propose a new model of intergenerational transfers which distinguishes between the effects of changes in population structure and the effects of changes in family age structure. Using age-specific data from annual income and expenditure surveys of Taiwan between 1978 and 1998, we show that changes in age structure have had a very favorable effect on Taiwan's income growth. The gains are not equally shared by all age groups, however. Children and young adults have benefited the most, while the elderly have benefited the least. The population and family age structures have independent effects on per capita income; the effect of the population age structure is most important. Generational differences in per capita income are closely related to intergenerational differences in earnings, suggesting only a weak form of altruism. Finally, we predict that, on average, population aging will adversely influence the per capita income growth in Taiwan in the coming decades.     

Quantifying entrepreneurship and its impact on local economic performance: A spatial assessment in rural Switzerland

Regional and rural development policies in Europe increasingly emphasize entrepreneurship to mobilize the endogenous economic potential of rural territories. This study develops a concept to quantify entrepreneurship as place-dependent local potential to examine its impact on the local economic performance of rural territories in Switzerland. The short-to-medium-term impact of entrepreneurship on the economic performance of 1706 rural municipalities in Switzerland is assessed by applying three spatial random effects models. Results suggest a generally positive relationship between entrepreneurship and local development: rural municipalities with higher entrepreneurial potential generally show higher business tax revenues per capita and a lower share of social welfare cases among the population, although the impact on local employment is less clear. The explanatory power of entrepreneurship in all three models, however, was only moderate. This finding suggests that political expectations of fostering entrepreneurship to boost endogenous rural development in the short-to-medium term should be damped.     

Productivity, convergence and policy: a study of OECD countries and industries

This paper analyses trends in labour productivity and its underlying determinants in a panel of OECD countries from 1979 to 2002. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to estimate a Malmquist measure of multifactor productivity (MFP) change. We decompose the growth in labour productivity into (i) net technological change (ii) input biased technical change (IBTC) (iii) efficiency change and (iv) capital accumulation. We analyse the effect of each of these factors in the transition towards the equilibrium growth paths of both labour productivity and per capita GDP for the OECD countries, controlling for the effects of different policies and institutions. The results indicate that on average gaps in productivity or income levels are narrowing down although there is no evidence to suggest that the entire OECD area comprises a single convergence “club”. Using kernel estimation methods we find that that labour productivity and per capita GDP are settling toward a twin peak (bimodal) distribution. Panel unit root tests over an extended (1960–2001) period provide general support for the convergence hypothesis. Analysis of the contributions of productivity growth within industries and sectoral composition changes show that aggregate productivity change is predominantly driven by ‘net’ within sector effects with very little contribution emerging from sectoral shifts (the ‘in-between’ static or dynamic effects resulting from higher or above average productivity industries gaining employment shares or low productivity industries losing shares).     

Rural-Urban Migration Rates and Development: A Quantitative Note

There have been two earlier efforts to estimate how rural outmigration rates evolve over the development process. In one the sample was too small and possibilities of a non-monotonic pattern were precluded. In the other inverted U-shaped migration rate patterns were estimated on the basis of an urbanization logistic curve. It is argued here that estimates based on such a curve would tend to be biased downward at very high per capita income levels. The reason is the relatively small rural populations of most industrialized countries. In such countries relatively high rates of rural outmigration could still be consistent with relatively slow rates of urbanization. Using more direct estimation techniques inverted U-shaped patterns were confirmed, but the turning points occurred much later in the development process and the migration rate estimates were sharply higher (up to five times at the highest per capita income levels) than those of the logistic estimates or even those estimated here on the basis of an LDC only sample. Finally, when the effects of income growth rates on migration rates were estimated directly, the high sensitivity levels found in the logistic study (where growth rates were treated simply as a shift parameter) could not be replicated.     

Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.     

Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings

The time-series properties of per capita income and per capita earnings in the regions of the United States are tested for consistency with the neoclassical growth model's prediction of convergence. We find evidence for per capita income convergence for U.S. regions during the 1929–1990 period after allowing for a trend break in 1946. These findings support the neoclassical model's prediction of convergence. The evidence for per capita earnings convergence is, however, less conclusive. Shocks to per capita earnings are found to be more persistent than shocks to per capita income. This implies that the regional distribution of transfer payments tends to smooth the effects of deviation on relative regional per capita earnings and reinforce trends in per capita income convergence.     

Accounting for Public Recreation Expenditures

A bstract . Understanding why local parks and recreation budgets are set at particular levels is an interesting but difficult area in which to conduct research. In order to help clarify some of the important ideas, 22 hypotheses are developed and tested, correlating for 103 United States cities , the relationships of dependent variables (city's total recreation budget, recreation as a percent of total expenditure and recreation expenditure per capita) to selected sets of urban variables identified as demographic, labor force structure, local income, and public service variables. Results of the analysis suggest that the size of park budgets is positively associated with pet cent of population Non-White, birth, death and marriage rates, crime rates, non-agricultural employment , white collar employment, and income growth. Variables inversely related to budgets include the percent of lower to middle income groups and expenditures for education.     

A Simple Test for Convergence of Metropolitan Income in the United States

The prevalent test for income convergence used in many recent studies of convergence across spatial economic units in the United States is to use a regression equation in which income growth is regressed against the initial level of income (this is known as β convergence). That method, however, has been crtiticized as an instance of Galton's fallacy of regression. We devise a simple test for the income β-convergence hypothesis which does not suffer from “Galton's fallacy” and apply it to all of the metropolitan areas of the United States for the period 1969–1995. For the test we use two income measures: per capita personal income and average wages. Our results conclusively support convergence of per capita personal income and of wage per worker for metropolitan areas in the United States. We also test for σ convergence, the hypothesis of diminishing dispersion in income among places over time, and find no support for the hypothesis.     

Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross‐Country Evidence

Abstract.  This paper studies the links between macroeconomic adjustment and poverty. The first part summarizes some of the recent evidence on poverty in the developing world. The second reviews the various channels through which macroeconomic policies affect the poor, whereas the third is devoted to the specific role of the labor market. It presents an analytical framework that captures some of the main features of the urban labor market in developing countries and studies the effects of fiscal adjustment on wages, employment, and poverty. The fourth part presents cross‐country regressions linking various macroeconomic and structural variables to poverty. Higher levels and growth rates of per capita income, higher rates of real exchange rate depreciation, better health conditions, and a greater degree of commercial openness lower poverty, whereas inflation, greater income inequality, and macroeconomic volatility tend to increase it. Moreover, the impact of growth on poverty appears to be asymmetric; it seems to result from a significant relationship between episodes of increasing poverty and negative growth rates.     

Land and residential property markets in a booming economy: New evidence from Beijing

Beijing's housing market has boomed over the last fifteen years. The city's population grew by 40.6% and per capita income (in constant RMB) by 273.9% from 1991 to 2005. Using two geocoded data sets, we present new evidence on the real estate price gradient, land price gradient, population densities, and building densities in Beijing's recent free housing market. The classic urban monocentric model's predictions are largely upheld in Beijing. We also document the importance of local public goods, such as access to public transit infrastructure, core high schools, clean air, and major universities, most of which have exogenous locations, as important determinants of real estate prices.     

Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms

This paper studies the different mechanisms and the dynamics through which demography is channeled to the economy. We analyze the role of demographic changes in the economic development process by studying the transitional and the long-run impact of both the rate of population growth and the initial population size on the levels of per capita human capital and income. We do that in an enlarged Lucas–Uzawa model with intergenerational altruism. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of the variables along the balanced growth path, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard long-run growth effects. We prove that the level effect of the population rate of growth is non-negative (positive in the empirically most relevant case) for the average level of human capital, but a priori ambiguous for the level of per capita income due to the interaction of three transmission mechanisms of demographic shocks, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard (altruism and human capital accumulation). Overall, the sign of the level effects of population growth depends on preference and technology parameters, but numerically we show that the joint negative effect of dilution and altruism is always stronger than the induced positive human capital effect. The growth effect of population growth depends basically on the attitude to intergenerational altruism and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, we also prove that the long-run level effects of population size on per capita human capital and income may be negative, nil, or positive, depending on the relationship between preferences and technology, while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long term.     

Assessing the economic costs of high school noncompletion

Disparities in educational attainment exist across states. There are costs, both to the individual and society, associated with low levels of educational attainment. This research estimates the costs of high school noncompletion in terms of income loss for each state. The results suggest that: 1) there are substantial economic costs associated with high school noncompletion ($727 billion in lost income nationally); 2) costs vary widely across states; and 3) in general, states with relatively low levels of per capita expenditures on education incur the greatest losses in income from high school noncompletion.     

Local tax management in Spain: A study of the conditional efficiency of provincial tax agencies

This paper reports an efficiency analysis of local tax management by provincial tax agencies in Spain based on supramunicipal delegation. To conduct this study, we used the robust order-m conditional model that directly accounts for some socioeconomic environmental variables to estimate the efficiency scores. This is a key issue, as tax agencies do not have control over the context in which they operate, and this may have a severe impact on their performance. Our results suggest that several of the provincial contextual variables accounted for (the net property tax base, population density and inhabitants of the municipalities that have delegated management to the provincial tier of government) have a negative impact on efficiency, especially at higher variable value levels. Considering that the provincial tier of government can opt to set up specific self-governing agencies to perform these tasks, we also applied metafrontier analysis to assess their share in inefficiency. We concluded that the establishment of such self-governing agencies does not lead to higher efficiency levels.     

Economic Development and the Income of the Poor

A bstract . In their 1988 study of poverty Branco and Williamson suggested that the mean income of the poorest 40% of the population declines during the early stages of economic development. This result is, probably, due to the unusual indicator of economic development used by them (per capita energy consumption ). It is shown that if per capita income in "Real Purchasing Power Dollars" is used as a proxy for a country's level of development, the mean income of the poorest 40% is a monotonically increasing function of the level of economic development (although the mean income of particular socioeconomic groups may decline).     

The Penn-Balassa-Samuelson effect through the lens of the dependent economy model

The positive correlation between per capita income and cross-country price levels is called the “Penn-Balassa-Samuelson effect.” The most influential explanation of this effect centers around sectoral output productivities as the determinant of the relative price of nontraded goods. The interaction between the change in relative prices and the change in per capita income, the dynamic PBS effect, is less well known. This paper extends the Turnovsky and Sen (1995) model of a small open economy by adding external economies into the production function. The model's dynamics accord well with several features of the empirical data on the dynamic PBS effect.     

Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?

Recent empirical literature has found a negative relationship between income per capita and measures of risk from natural disaster, supportive of logic that higher incomes allow countries to mitigate disaster risk. We argue that behavioral changes at the micro level in response to increasing income (such as location choice and extent of costly abatement activity) may lead to a non-linear relationship between aggregate incomes and disaster damages, where the risks increase with income before they decrease. In a country-year panel data set, we show that disaster risk associated with flooding, landslides and windstorms increases with income up to GDP per capita levels of $5044, $3360, and $4688 per year respectively and decrease thereafter. Such non-linear impacts are absent for other disaster types such as extreme temperature events and earthquakes where the links between human behavioral choices and exposure to risk are not as strong. From a policy perspective, this suggests that for the least developed countries, the dual goals of disaster risk prevention and economic development cannot be assumed to be complementary for all forms of natural disaster. In addition to allocating resources to manage disaster risk, the poorest nations may have to be more proactive in enacting policies that alter the behavioral choices of citizens that impact a country's exposure to natural disaster risk.