The Interactions between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy

This paper studies the interactions of fiscal policy and monetarypolicy when they stabilize a single economy against shocks ina dynamic setting. If both policy-makers are benevolent, then,in our model, the best outcome is achieved when monetary policydoes nearly all of the stabilization. If the monetary authoritiesare benevolent, but the fiscal authority discounts the future,or aims for an excessive level of output, then a Nash equilibriumwill result in large welfare losses: after an inflation shockthere will be excessively tight monetary policy, excessive fiscalexpansion, and a rapid accumulation of public debt. However,if, in these circumstances, there is a regime of fiscal leadership,then the outcome will be very nearly as good as when both policy-makersare benevolent. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: t.kirsanova{at}exeter.ac.uk; jari.stehn{at}bnc.ox.ac.uk;david.vines{at}economics.oxford.ac.uk     

Fiscal Stabilization Policy and Fiscal Institutions

In this paper we analyse counter-cyclical fiscal policy withinthe context of a microfounded analysis of business-cycle stabilization.We show that tax and spending instruments can have a usefulcounter-cyclical role, even after allowing for the distortionarynature of the instruments and the need for debt sustainability.A critical barrier to the use of fiscal instruments may be politicaleconomy concerns, and we survey recent suggestions involvingalternative fiscal policy institutions. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: c.b.leith{at}socsci.gla.ac.uk; s.wren-lewis{at}exeter.ac.uk     

Rethinking Fiscal Policy

The use of fiscal policy as a stabilization device has all butvanished, more or less explicitly in Europe and de facto inthe United States. The practical consequences have not beenentirely satisfactory, in either place. So it is important andtimely that the Oxford Review is devoting a special issue tothe macroeconomics of fiscal policy. In this paper I want todiscuss two underlying questions about the eclipse of fiscalpolicy. Why did this happen and was it a good idea? And if itwas not a good idea, then what follows? Footnotes ¹ E-mail address: jamu{at}mit.edu     

The Evolution of Fiscal Policy in Australia

This paper examines the evolution of Australian fiscal policyand the fiscal policy framework over the past quartercentury.Following the early 1980s recession, a sustained fiscal consolidationsaw the general government budget balance (for all levels ofgovernment) move from a deficit of 3 per cent of GDP in 1983/4to a surplus of 1 per cent 5 years later in 1988/9. A severerecession in the early 1990s interrupted this process, and thebudget returned to sizeable deficits which peaked at 4 per centof GDP in 1992/3. The second half of the 1990s saw a repeatof the experience a decade earlier, with the budget returningto surplus in 1997/8. In contrast to the 1980s experience, however,the general government sector (for all levels of government)has recorded surpluses for the subsequent 8 years to the present.The paper outlines Australia's macroeconomic experience overthis time and argues that there have been two significant medium-termfactors motivating the extended periods of fiscal consolidation.The first factor, relevant since the mid-1980s, has been thelarge Australian current-account deficits since that time, andthe associated build-up of net foreign liabilities. The secondfactor, which entered the public debate more recently, is adesire to provide fiscal policy flexibility to respond to theageing of the population and the projected rising public costof health services—both influences that are likely tobe of increasing importance over the next generation or so.The paper discusses the introduction and evolution of Australia'smedium-term fiscal framework which has been put in place torespond to these challenges. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: dgruen{at}treasury.gov.au; asayegh{at}treasury.gov.au     

宏观调控政策三箭齐发

对于地产商和境内外炒房族来说,今年9月第一周充分领教到了国家宏观调控政策的威力。从9月5—7日,宏观调控政策是三箭齐发,击中丁,炒房者的要害。     

国际一体化对宏观经济政策有效性的影响

本文讨论了国内宏观经济政策如何受到国际一体化的影响。宏观经济政策有效性取决于以下几个因素：政策工具的数目、达到经济目标的效果，及运用这些工具时受到的约束。一般认为，国际一体化降低政策有效性，而本文指出，国际一体化在很多情况下可能增强决策者运用宏观经济政策的能力。国际一体化创造了许多新的政策工具。有关货币政策、财政政策和产业结构政策的标准分析显示，国际一体化究竟是提高还是降低了政策工具的效力，取决于国际一体化的具体来源和一国的货币制度。     

中国经济的稳定、平衡增长呼唤积极财政

中国当前的宏观经济形势2005年上半年,经济增长速度达到9.5%,通货膨胀率只有1.8%,实现了我们求之不得的经济增长与通货膨胀率的最佳组合。不仅如此,经济的结构性失衡也得到一定程度的改善。其主要表现是:固定资产投资增速继续回落;居民消费增速有所上升;房地产投资过热得到一定抑制;瓶颈现象明显缓解。事实说明,中国政府的宏观调控已经取得阶段性成功。经济增长是经济变量和政府政策相互作用的结果,在制度安排和政府宏观经济政策给定的条件下,经济增长有其内在规律可循。经济在增长过程中发生周期性波动是不可避免的。政府所应该和所能做的…     

对当前宏观调控的若干政策建议

在市场经济条件下,宏观调控难度加大。当务之急是将"热钱"收入笼中,探索治标治本之策。建议大量释出国有流通股,尽快让社保入市资金退出;逐步放开股票一级市场,改善资本市场结构;实施财政紧缩政策,停建大型公共设施;发挥市场调控手段作用。     

居民收入差距与财政政策的关联度

改革开放以来,我国城乡经济获得较大的发展,城乡居民的收入水平有了很大的提高,城乡关系也得到了逐步改善,但城乡居民收入差距过大问题依然存在。财政是政府发挥作用的重要方式和手段,有其不可替代的功能,在缩小城乡居民收入差距、促进农民增收过程中担负着重要使命。建议加大财政对农业的总量投入,优化财政支农资金结构,加大财政对农村公共品供给的投入,完善现行财政管理体制。     

Financial Integration and Fiscal Policy

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial integration on fiscal policy. Using an unbalanced panel of 31 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009, the paper shows that financial integration has significant disciplinary effects by reducing fiscal deficits and (discretionary) spending volatility. In addition, we find that financial integration affects the composition of government debt and enhances risk-sharing by increasing the share of foreign debt to the total. The results are robust to both de jure and de facto measures of financial integration, different measures of budget balance, and different estimation strategies.     

The Performance of Simple Fiscal Policy Rules in Monetary Union

The paper analyses the stabilising potential of simple fiscal policy rules for a small open economy in monetary union in a 2-region DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities. We consider simple fiscal instrument rules for government purchases, transfers, and consumption, labour and capital taxes in analogy to interest rate rules in monetary policy. The paper finds a dichotomy in the welfare effects of fiscal policy for liquidity-constrained and intertemporal optimising households, i.e. policies enhancing the welfare of one group tend to reduce the welfare of the other one. The moderate average welfare gains from optimal policy contrast with potentially large welfare losses from non-optimal policy. Fiscal rules that respond to employment fluctuations may be preferred to fiscal rules responding to indicators of price competitiveness, because optimal policy corresponds more closely to the idea of countercyclical stabilisation in the former case. The simulations also emphasise the crucial impact of the budgetary closure rule on the welfare consequences of fiscal business-cycle stabilisation.     

稳健财政政策和货币政策下的政策工具选择

本文在对宏观经济模型与政策工具进行理论分析的基础上,回顾了1997年以来我国宏观经济政策的选择和政策变量的使用,认为1997年以来我国实施的积极的财政政策和货币政策属于扩张性的财政政策和货币政策,同时在分析了2003年以来我国经济运行状况及2004年加强宏观调控下我国经济运行状况的基础上,提出实施稳健财政政策和货币政策的必然性,并对稳健财政政策和货币政策的涵义及政策工具的选择提出了一些自己的设想。     

Fiscal Policy after the Great Recession

The Great Recession has severely hit the economies of most of the countries. Given that, fiscal policies have gained back a central role in the debate as a tool to recover from this situation. This paper provides an overview about the main controversial issues related to the fiscal policy. In particular, we analyze the role and the different effects played by discretionary counter-cyclical policies – say, for instance, tax cuts or increased government spending. Disagreement on this topic follows from the fact that it is extremely difficult to isolate the exogenous effect of these policies on GDP. We review several ways in which economists have tried to deal with this problem of estimation. Finally, we discuss why spending-based adjustments are preferable and less likely to be costly than tax-based ones and why large fiscal consolidation accompanied by appropriate policies can be much less costly than what we think.     

Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability

This article discusses the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy when the ultimate goal is to maintain price stability and limit fluctuations in real income. It is argued that judicious interpretation of asset price movements can provide information about the risks of future macroeconomic imbalances, and that this information should be utilized in monetary policy decisions. Simulations results from both theoretical and empirical models support the conceptual argument. It is stressed that policy reactions to asset prices must not follow a mechanical rule, since the appropriate response depends on the underlying shock.     

提高新疆农民收入水平的财政政策分析

本文从新疆农民收入的实际状况出发,分析了农业财政政策与新疆农民增收的相关性,运用回归分析法验证了财政分配政策与农民增收的内在联系,并从新疆财政支出总量、支出结构与支出效益出发,分析了新疆财政支农支出的边际效应,明确了新疆支农支出的优先顺序,为进一步促进新疆农民增收,提出了构建助农增收财政政策体系的建议。