Forecasting as an aid to R & D decision making in the nuclear power field

The pay-off from a new power system does not begin to accrue until many years after the initial research; and perhaps not until 10 years or more after major development programmes are launched. The ensuing benefit to the community in terms of reduced power costs may be spread over 30 to 40 years—combining the lifetime of the stations with the period over which they might be installed. Ideally therefore, the Atomic Energy Authority would like to have accurate forecasts of electricity demand and its characteristics in terms of load factors, etc., 30 to 40 years ahead. This paper describes attempts by the Authority to forecast electricity requirements at and beyond the end of the century as a background to their consideration of the relative merits of alternative future nuclear power systems and the distribution of research effort between them. The study was conducted between 1969 and 1971. The danger of the Middle East countries restricting oil supplies and raising prices was foreseen but in a less acute form and later than has actually occurred. The recent developments are likely to lead to pauses in economic growth followed by growth at lower rates than otherwise. Where forecasts in this article are given in the form of ranges, the lower bounds of the range are likely to apply—at least in the short and medium term.     

The Restructuring and Privatisation of Britain's CEGB—Was It Worth It?

We report a social cost-benefit analysis of the privatisation and restructuring of the Central Electricity Generating Board which generated and transmitted all public electricity in England and Wales until 1990. The main benefits came from generator efficiency gains, switching from nuclear power, and lower emissions. The main costs came from higher prices for imported French electricity, the cost of restructuring and premature investment in the gas-fired generating plant. Our central estimate is a permanent cost reduction of 5% per year, equivalent to an extra 40% return on assets. Consumers and government lose, and producers gain more than the cost reduction.     

Markttransparenz im CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-Emissionshandel und Risikomanagement von Stromerzeugern

This paper analyses the effects of recent regulatory measures, namely the Regulation on wholesale Energy Market Integrity and Transparency enacted by the European Parliament and the Market Transparency Authority Act, that aim to increase transparency in CO₂ emissions trading on an utility maximizing electricity producer. Taking the particular characteristics of electricity into account, we analyze optimal composition of power generation and optimal risk policy. Our results have implications for the regulation of electricity producers with regard goals concerning environmental policy and supply reliability.     

The impact of introducing seven-day-trading on the Austrian electricity market

This paper analyses the impacts of the new daily green electricity production forecasting policy by the Austrian Green Electricity Settlement Agency (OEMAG) and the newly introduced seven-day electricity trading mechanism by the European Energy Exchange (EEX) on the Austrian electricity market. By treating these two market policy alterations as natural experiments and applying statistical and econometric methods to a unique data set, it is investigated whether thereby (i) a reduction of the green electricity production forecasting uncertainties and (ii) a generally more efficient electricity market with accompanying lower net costs is attained. Furthermore, we analyse whether (iii) seven-day-trading helps to mitigate the Friday-Monday effect that is often observed on stock and other exchanges markets. Finally, we investigate whether or not (iv) the underlying market design might tempt OEMAG to systematically overstate its forecasts on green power generation.     

2030年世界能源与电力发展展望

在系统分析世界能源与电力发展最新动态的基础上,对2030年世界及主要国家的能源与电力发展趋势以及能源与电力投资增长的趋势进行了分析预测。该分析预测结果可为研究和制定我国的能源及电力发展战略提供参考。     

Markt- und Systemintegration von erneuerbaren Energien im Rahmen der Systemtransformation – Ein Beitrag zur definitorischen Abgrenzung

The reconstruction of the electricity system is one of the main challenges of the German energy transition (Energiewende). The expansion of renewable electricity generation should enable the phase out of nuclear and fossil power generators in the long run. The Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz) aims at increasing renewable generation up to a share of at least 80?% in gross electricity consumption by the year 2050. There are many possible ways to reach this target. Today, the characteristics of the future energy systems become apparent through the legal framework and long term energy scenarios.Economic, social and regulatory hurdles will need to be overcome to enable the transition of the electricity system. In this context, specific measures are evaluated with respect to their contribution on the system transformation, system integration and market integration. Up until now a consistent framework for evaluating political actions and scientific that should effectively support the energy political objectives is not present. The concepts of power system transformation, power system integration and market integration are differentiated and defined to close this gap. Based on this framework, a practical example is evaluated. The exact definitions will help to objectify the political and scientific debate. Furthermore, it contributes to develop regulatory and market mechanisms.     

The Impact of Recent Gas Market Developments on Long-Term Projections for Global Gas Supply

Production from unconventional resources, increases in upstream development costs and sluggish demand growth have significantly impacted the global natural gas market in the recent past; and will likely continue to do so during the next decade. Taking these developments into account, we provide a projection of global natural gas supply until 2030 applying the MAGELAN world gas model by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI). Apart from presenting the results of this simulation, the focus of this paper is thereby on the effects of recent supply, midstream and demand side trends on future gas supply compared to earlier studies and projections. While lower demand growth generally leads to relatively less international gas trade, pipeline exports are affected more strongly than trade in liquefied natural gas. In terms of gas output, this volume effect is found to mainly affect high cost gas producers at the upper end of the supply curve. Exports of suppliers with lower production costs and abundant reserves actually benefit.     

Einflussfaktoren auf die Bereitschaft von Privatkunden, Ökostrom nachzufragen

The present study investigates impacts of attitudinal and perceptual characteristics of residential electricity consumers on their intention to use a green power tariff/supplier in the future. The work rests on a standardized telephone survey of 267 household electricity consumers of a German power supplier. Multivariate Partial Least Squares analysis indicates that, regardless of a person’s level of actual power consumption in the recent past, the intention to use green electricity is significantly higher among customers who have a positive general attitude towards environmental protection measures and who report an endorsing valuation of green power by their close social contacts. In a subsample of participants with a low actual electricity consumption in the year preceding the survey the intention to use green energy is significantly positively affected by the weight an individual attaches to electricity prices in one’s own supplier selection decisions and the person’s belief that one’s present power company takes over social responsibility. In contrast, in the subgroup of respondents with a high actual electricity consumption customers’ intention to use green energy is significantly enhanced by the degree of perceived dissimilarity among power company offerings. The findings are used to derive suggestions for green energy marketing measures of power companies and future energy consumer research.     

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Photovoltaik im deutschen Energiemix – Neudefinition des Ansatzes der Netzparität

Photovoltaics are one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Despite high costs and a limited energy yield, attractive support schemes particularly the German renewable energy law have paved the way for the strong market growth of this technology within the last decade. Here the question arises as to when photovoltaics will reach a competitive level in Germany without the support of subsidies. The prominent grid parity approach is simple and considered critical in this discussion. It is critical because of the different references regarding the costs of electricity generated by a newly installed PV system and the electricity price of private households, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, sales as well as taxes and duties on the one hand. On the other hand, there are different time references in the calculation of electricity generation costs and electricity prices of private households. Transferring the approach of Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE) to all power generation plants within the energy mix means a redefinition of the grid parity of photovoltaics will be carried out. Here the electricity generation costs of photovoltaics as well as the energy mix will be calculated in the same way. The LCOE calculation refers to the whole life cycle of every power generation plant. That is why a balance between the high investment costs of photovoltaics and the increasing operation costs of fossil fuelled power plants is made. It can be shown that the reaching of competitiveness of photovoltaics in Germany depends on structural changes in electricity generation and it is to be realized within the anticipated time frame until the year 2020.     

New directions in R&D: current and prospective challenges

This paper investigates the paradox of research and development (R&D), that is being increasingly undervalued by firms and nations, and yet continues to grow and prosper in terms of overall size and reach. The analysis outlines key developments that are currently affecting the growth and development of R&D activity and highlights the issues and problems that R&D managers and policymakers may likely face over the next decade.     

Sales forecast errors for new product projects

It is difficult to avoid errors in sales forecasts for new industrial products, especially when the forecasts are made at the new product screening stage. But if managers are aware that a forecast is likely to be in serious error, they can take steps to deal with the uncertainty. A research project analyzed 185 new product projects to develop four major indicators of sales forecast error. The indicators can be derived for specific firms from typical project screening questions and can be used to alert new product managers to special development problems that may be present.     

Empirische Analyse des Wechselverhaltens von Stromkunden. Was hält Stromkunden davon ab,zu Ökostromanbietern zu Wechseln?

In an online survey concerning the preferences for wind power generation in Germany respondents were also asked whether they purchase green electricity. If not, they were requested to state the reasons for not purchasing green electricity. In this paper we present the results using, among other things, a logistic regression analysis. Moreover, we also interpret the results with respect to German energy policy. The regression analysis shows, for example, that respondents who are not in favour of the climate policy of the German government are less likely to purchase green electricity. Overall, the results show that respondents do not principally oppose purchasing green electricity. Reservation towards green electricity is rather caused by insufficient information about green electricity and lacking motivation to change power contracts at the current supplier or to change even the supplier. However, as the sample of the on-line survey is not representative for Germany, the conclusions should be considered with some degree of caution. Nevertheless, the results show unused market potential for green electricity. This conclusion might be of interest for producers of green electricity and for the marketing of green electricity labels, because a substantial share of the identified obstacles can be eliminated with suitable marketing actions.     

Integration erneuerbarer Energien in die deutsche Stromversorgung im Zeitraum 2015�C2020 mit Ausblick auf 2025

The dena grid study II examines the integration of renewable energies into Germany??s electricity supply up to the year 2020 and gives a qualified outlook up to 2025. The study develops geographically differentiated scenarios for installed wind power capacity, on the basis of which time series of the wind power feed-in into high and extra high voltage nodes and offshore wind farms are generated. Future requirements for the transmission grid and grid extension options are analysed. Opportunities to introduce more flexibility in the power system in terms of supply and demand are examined. The study gives a conceptual perspective of the need for grid extension in inner Germany in order to fully integrate renewable energies, whilst operating power stations at optimum cost and exchanging electricity with other countries in response to market demands within the scope of the specified transmission capacities.     

Einfluss der CO2-Zertifikatspreise auf die Stromgestehungskosten im deutschen Energiemix

In the past, electricity generation costs in Germany’s energy mix depended for the most part on the development of fossil fuel prices. Despite the strongly increasing share of renewable energies in the energy mix, the generation of electricity from fossil fuel power plants, especially brown and bituminous coal power plants, still dominates in Germany today. Alongside fossil fuels as an increasing cost factor, the price of CO₂ is also gaining importance as a price factor in the production of electricity from fossil fuel power plants. The establishment of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in 2005 formed the basis of CO₂ emissions pricing, and was oriented on the emission reduction targets of the European Union. Although the price of CO₂-certificates in free trade is shown on several stock exchanges, the CO₂ price is still policy driven. The amount of free allocated and traded CO₂-certificates is set on a European policy level. Current decisions on temporary limitations of the trade volume have corresponding effects on exchange prices. This article aims to investigate the impact of CO₂-certificate prices on electricity generation costs in the German energy mix. Comparing real CO₂ prices to forecasts for 2013 provides findings on the effects that the political decisions of the European Parliament with regard to the limitation of the trade volume of available CO₂-certificates have on electricity generation costs in the German energy mix.     

Elektroautos in einer von erneuerbaren Energien geprägten Energiewirtschaft

The German Federal Government wants to establish Germany as a leading market for electric mobility. Potential environmental benefits and changes in the economic framework conditions of the energy sector are described in this paper. In order to quantify the electricity split which is actually used for charging electric vehicles, two economic models for the energy sector, a model for the market penetration of electric vehicles, a vehicle model and an LCA model are brought together. Based on an assumed dynamic increase of electric vehicles to 12 million in 2030, an additional electricity demand of about 18 TWh is calculated. If the vehicles are charged directly after their last daily trip, the peak load increases by 12%—despite the small increase in electricity demand. First model calculations for the development of the European power generation system show that the direct impact on the construction of new power plants remains low even until 2030. An impact of electric mobility on CO₂ certificate prices can only be seen from 2025 onwards and is limited to an increase in certificate prices by a maximum of 8 % in 2030. An optimisation is possible with intelligent charging strategies: The peak load without demand side management can be reduced by 5 GW and about 600 GWh of additional wind energy can used which would otherwise have been throttled due to feed-in management—about 3.5 % of the total electricity demand of electric vehicles. On the other hand, demand side management leads to more coal power plants instead of gas power plants being used to meet the additional electricity demand. If additional renewable sources are installed along with demand side management, the electricity for electric vehicles is almost carbon free. This is also reflected in the life cycle balance of electric vehicles which also includes vehicle and battery production: With today’s average electricity split in Germany, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles are about comparable to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. However, the electricity split in 2030 or the use of additional renewable energy sources lead to a significant advantage in the greenhouse gas balance.     

The European Single Market in Electricity: An Economic Assessment

The European single market in electricity has been promoted vigorously by the European Commission since 1996. We discuss how national electricity markets and cross-border electricity markets have been reshaped by the process. We examine the Commission’s own work on evaluating the benefits of the single market. We look at the wider evidence of impact on prices, security of supply, the environment, and innovation. We conclude that the institutional changes are extensive and there has been significant market harmonisation and integration. However, the measured benefits are difficult to identify, but likely to be small. This is partly because over the same period there has been a large rise in subsidised renewable generation that is driven by the decarbonisation agenda.

     

Telecommunications and economic development – The 21st century: Making the evidence stronger

A review of the literature on the relation between telecommunications and economic development published since the turn of this century is undertaken. Two stages have been considered: until 2008, most contributions continued to examine the role of telecommunications taken together; since 2009, the impact of broadband –and, to a lesser extent, of mobile communications– dominates the research agenda. All in all, the role of telecommunications as a catalyst to leverage economic growth has been conclusively proven over the years. Taking into consideration the shortcomings of previous research, suggestions for future work are also provided.     

Global developments in the competition for land from biofuels

The potential global demand for biofuels and the implications of this for land use and its interaction with food agriculture is reviewed. It is expected that biofuels will form an important element of global transport energy mix (in the order of 20–30% of total requirement) over the next 40 years and beyond. Over this time, there will be a transition from so called first generation biofuels, based on commodity agricultural crops with food/feed uses, to advanced biofuels, sometimes called second and third generation biofuels, based primarily upon lignocellulosic feedstocks. It remains unclear whether these advanced biofuels, based on lignocellulosic materials, will entirely replace first generation or if second generation will be supplemental to first generation. This expansion in biofuels will be coupled to a substantial increase in alternative fuels (electricity, hydrogen, biogas and natural gas) and modal shifts. Biofuel production from agricultural commodity crops that exhibit strong sustainability criteria will remain important (e.g. sugarcane) with supportive and competitive aspects for food security.Land requirement projections estimated for a range of potential biofuel development trajectories range widely and are inherently uncertain. Under the most active scenario that delivers substantive greenhouse gas reductions in transport by 2050 (relative to 2005 levels), approximately 100 Mha of additional land is projected. In the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, in which transport energy demand rises by 80% by 2050 from present levels, a land use requirement of 650 Mha is projected.Significant potential exists for producing biofuels that possess high productivity and sustainability profiles through continued research, development and demonstration. Policy and regulation at a global level, that focuses biofuel development on these goals in ways that are synergistic with food agriculture, will simultaneously help to decarbonise transport and maintain a diverse and financially robust agricultural (and forestry) sector.     

用电检查面临的重点问题及反窃电措施

用电检查是供电营销管理工作的重要内容,而查窃电又是用电检查的重点和难点。基于多年用电检查工作经验,分析了当前供电业务中违章用电和窃电形势,论述了供电企业用电检查和反窃电工作的现状及面临的问题,结合供电企业工作实际,提出了查处窃电的相关对策。