Does Fair Value Accounting Exacerbate the Procyclicality of Bank Lending?

This study investigates whether fair value accounting contributes to the procyclicality of bank lending. Using banks’ approval/denial decisions on residential mortgage applications to capture banks’ supply of credit, I find no evidence that fair value accounting has procyclical effects on bank lending over the past two business cycles. I further identify two reasons for this result. First, the main accounting item distinguishing fair value accounting from historical cost accounting—unrealized gains and losses on available‐for‐sale securities—does not affect lending decisions. Second, unrealized gains and losses on available‐for‐sale securities are not procyclical, as the risk‐free interest rate rises during some expansionary periods, resulting in unrealized losses, while the risk‐free interest rate (and sometimes the default spread) falls during some recessionary periods, resulting in unrealized gains.     

BANK EXPOSURE TO INTEREST RATE RISK: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

In 1993, the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision considered whether to incorporate interest rate risk in risk-based capital requirements for international banks. At issue was whether a bank's interest rate risk varies with the country of concern. While the effects of interest rate movements on U.S. banks are well documented, the effects on banks from other countries are not. We find that bank interest rate risk varies among countries, which supports the need to capture interest rate risk differentials in the risk-based capital requirements. We also find that non-U.S. bank values are sensitive not only to domestic interest rates, but to international interest rates as well.     

Do subordinated debt holders discipline bank risk-taking? Evidence from risk management decisions

I test the market discipline of bank risk hypothesis by examining whether banks choose risk management policies that account for the risk preferences of subordinated debt holders. Using around 500,000 quarterly observations on the population of U.S. insured commercial banks over the 1995–2009 period, I document that the ratio of subordinated debt affects bank risk management decisions consistent with the market discipline hypothesis only when subordinated debt is held by the parent holding company. In particular, the subordinated debt ratio increases the likelihood and the extent of interest rate derivatives use for risk management purposes at bank holding company (BHC)-affiliated banks, where subordinated debt holders have a better access to information needed for monitoring and control rights provided by equity ownership. At non-affiliated banks, a higher subordinated debt ratio leads to risk management decisions consistent with moral hazard behavior. The analysis also shows that the too-big-to-fail protection prevents market discipline even at BHC-affiliated banks.     

Joint Effects of Interest Rate Deregulation and Capital Requirements on Optimal Bank Portfolio Adjustments

The 1980 Depository Institution Deregulation and Monetary Control Act (DIDMCA) mandates that Regulation Q be phased out by 1986. With deregulation of interest rate ceilings, the cost of raising capital funds for commercial banks would become more volatile and more closely related with interest rates in the money and capital markets. Thus, value-maximizing bank managers would need to be concerned not only with the internal risk, but also with the external risk in bank portfolio management decisions. Based upon the cash flow version of the capital asset pricing model, this paper analyzes the joint impact of interest rate deregulation and capital requirements on the portfolio behavior of a banking firm.     

商业银行隐含期权的利率风险管理研究

随着利率市场化改革的深入,隐含期权将成为我国商业银行普遍存在的利率风险问题,对这些隐含期权利率风险的忽略有可能给银行造成重大损失.基于期权调整的有效持续期和凸度是衡量银行隐含期权利率风险的主要技术指标.对于隐含期权的利率风险应从契约上加以防范,并可运用证券化技术转移、建立基于期权调整利差模型的利率定价机制、科学匹配有效持续期和引入利率衍生工具等途径进行全面控制.     

商业银行贷款定价策略和模型设计

建立完善贷款定价体系对商业银行适应利率市场化、增强抵御利率风险具有重大意义。本文从贷款定价理论及其对商业银行重要意义入手,分析我国商业银行贷款定价的现状和难点。作者参照西方发达国家商业银行贷款定价模式,提出了我国商业银行建立完善贷款定价体系的策略和测算模型,即要综合考虑客户的信用风险、综合收益、筹资成本和营运成本以及货币信贷市场变化等因素,从而建立以成本精算、风险量化为基础的价格领导定价测算模型,最后依据客户综合贡献度、计结息周期和利率浮动周期进行修正,最终建立起以市场为导向,以弥补成本为前提,以客户盈利能力为参数的贷款定价机制。     

商业银行银行账户利率风险管理面临的挑战

银行账户利率风险是目前商业银行面临的主要市场风险之一。该文基于当前商业银行风险管理实践揭示其银行帐户利率风险管理在计量、运用方面面临的挑战,指出商业银行必须从制度、计量、监测、控制等方面逐步建立相应体系,以强化银行账户利率风险管理,适应监管要求和新资本协议要求。     

Derivative activities and the risk of international banks: A market index and VaR approach

The results of a comparison of international banks using a three-factor multi-index model and a modified value-at-risk (VaR) analysis indicate that the use of options increases the interest rate beta for all banks, while both interest rate and currency swaps generally reduce risk. The results are the strongest and the most consistent for U.S. dealer banks, followed by European banks, and then Japanese banks. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that the VaR approach to risk management can effectively be used by both domestic as well as international banks, although the results appear to be somewhat sensitive to the regulatory environment in which the bank operates.     

利率市场化背景下商业银行利率风险管理

随着利率市场化的推进,我国商业银行面临的利率风险日益凸显。本文分析提出商业银行应进一步加强对利率风险的识别、度量和管理。还同时分析利率风险和信用风险之间的关系,并指出利率风险和信用风险都影响着银行的经营,应纳入银行的全面风险管理之中。     

利率变动周期与商业银行绩效的实证研究

利率风险的计量、评估、监控是银行市场风险管理的重要内容。科学分析利率波动与银行收益之间关系,进而了解银行资产负债期限特征及利率风险管理水平,对实现我国商业银行资产负债管理科学决策,提升利率风险管理水平意义重大。本文采用Flannery的部分调整模型对我国上市银行的利率风险管理进行长时间窗口实证分析,结果表明:样本银行呈“借短贷长”的资产负债期限特征,利率变动期内其资产负债管理并未为银行带来实质收益,利率风险管理水平有待提高。     

Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?

If central banks value the ex post accuracy of their published forecasts, previously announced interest rate paths might influence the current policy rate. We explore if “forecast adherence” has affected monetary policy in New Zealand and Norway, where central banks have published their interest rate forecasts the longest. We derive and estimate policy rules with separate weights on past interest rate forecasts and find that they have explanatory power for current policy decisions, over and above their correlation with other conventional interest rate rule arguments.     

Commercial bank net interest margins,default risk,interest-rate risk,and off-balance sheet banking

This paper tests the hypothesis that banks with more risky loans and higher interest-rate risk exposure would select loan and deposit rates to achieve higher net interest margins. Call Report data for different size classes of banks for 1989–1993 show that the net interest margins of commercial banks reflect both default and interest-rate risk premia. The net interest margins of money-center banks are affected by default risk, but not by interest rate risk, which is consistent with their greater concentration in short-term assets and off-balance sheet (OBS) hedging instruments. By contrast, (super-) regional banking firms are sensitive to interest-rate risk but not to default risk. The data show that OBS activities promote a more diversified, margins-generating asset base than deposit- or equity-financing, and that cross-sectional differences in interest-rate risk and liquidity risk are related to differences in OBS exposure.     

Interest Rate Risk at Commercial Banks: An Empirical Investigation

This paper develops and estimates models to measure banks' exposure to interest rate risk. The models are estimated for the 1976–1983 period to determine whether banks' exposure to interest rate risk increased as a result of increased interest rate volatility and financial deregulation. The major findings are that banks changed their risk management strategies after 1979 and that total exposure to interest rate risk remained quite small.     

COMMERCIAL BANK RISK: MARKET,INTEREST RATE,AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Because of recent structural changes in the balance sheets of banks, regulatory changes in the risk-based capital requirements, and the recent adoption of mark-to-market accounting changes, interest rate risk remains an important issue for commercial banks and an important regulatory concern. Market, interest rate, and foreign exchange risk are estimated for a sample of commercial banks using ordinary least squares from 1986 to 1991. Consistent with earlier studies, the estimated coefficients continue to be unstable. We find that interest rate risk decreases and foreign exchange risk increases. Moreover, the results differ depending on practices of the bank (money center, superregional, or regional). We find evidence consistent with earlier studies that theorize foreign exchange risk is explained by unhedged foreign loan exposure.     

商业银行利率风险暴露——基于中国的银行数据的实证分析

随着利率市场化程度越来越深,商业银行利率风险暴露已成为大量经验研究的主题。对中国四大国有银行和10家股份制银行2000~2006年间财务数据进行实证分析的结果表明,银行股权收益与未预期的利率变化存在显著负相关关系;银行利率风险暴露水平与银行规模大小并不存在稳定的相关性。同时,单个银行的利率风险水平与银行特征比率密切相关。其中银行股权收益的利率敏感性与权益资产比、贷款占资产的比率和企业存款占比存在正相关关系,与非利息收入占比存在负相关关系。总之,银行利率风险暴露程度受银行特征比率影响。     

FRA在我国商业银行应用中的风险控制

本文从FRA自身可能产生风险的视角而非传统利率风险管理过程的角度,分析了FRA在制度设计、参考利率选择、报价品种等方面存在的诸多风险因素,并在此基础上提出加强对我国FRA风险控制的对策,避免商业银行应用FRA进行风险管理时遭受风险,提高风险管理水平。     

Does prudential regulation contribute to effective measurement and management of interest rate risk? Evidence from Italian banks

This paper contributes to prior literature and to the current debate concerning recent revisions of the regulatory approach to measuring bank exposure to interest rate risk in the banking book by focusing on assessment of the appropriate amount of capital banks should set aside against this specific risk. We first discuss how banks might develop internal measurement systems to model changes in interest rates and measure their exposure to interest rate risk that are more refined and effective than are regulatory methodologies. We then develop a backtesting framework to test the consistency of methodology results with actual bank risk exposure. Using a representative sample of Italian banks between 2006 and 2013, our empirical analysis supports the need to improve the standardized shock currently enforced by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. It also provides useful insights for properly measuring the amount of capital to cover interest rate risk that is sufficient to ensure both financial system functioning and banking stability.     

驳中小商业银行危机论——基于利率市场化视角

中国利率市场化进程不断加速,利率变动也将愈加频繁,给中小商业银行的盈利能力和经营管理水平带来严峻挑战,国内某些媒体开始鼓吹中小银行＂存款搬家论＂。尤其是存款保险制度即将推出之际,中小上商业银行危机论甚嚣尘上。我们应该看到利率市场化同时也给中小银行带来了发展机遇,中小银行的风险监管能力、定价能力、业务结构、金融创新都在不断完善,完全可以适应利率市场化的金融环境,大规模的中小银行倒闭潮不会出现。     

The management of interest rate risk during the crisis: Evidence from Italian banks

We use a unique dataset to analyze how Italian banking groups managed their exposure to interest rate risk during the recent financial crisis. First of all, we document that on average the interest rate risk exposure – measured by duration gap approach – has been limited and well below the alert level enforced by regulators. Second, our econometric results indicate a relation of substitutability between banks’ on-balance-sheet interest rate risk and their use of interest rate derivatives suggesting that banks used these two instruments to curb their overall interest rate risk exposure in case of an increase in interest rates. Furthermore, we also find robust evidence of a negative correlation between banks’ interest rate risk and liquidity risk.     

商业银行分支机构利率风险控制研究

我国利率市场化改革和国内利率调整频率的进一步加快,客观上已经对商业银行的净利息收入、经济价值产生了重要影响.然而,这些影响并没有引起商业银行及其分支机构的足够重视,现阶段国内商业银行及其分支机构对利率风险的识别、计量、防范和控制能力还相当脆弱.笔者在深入分析研究后认为,国内商业银行及其分支机构必须在充分认识利率风险的基础上,尽快采取诸如建立健全利率风险的管理流程、利率风险的工作机制,以及采取灵活的经营策略和技巧等一系列措施,力争将利率风险时商业银行的危害降至最低程度.