Determination of Optimal Hedging Strategy for Index Futures: Evidence from Turkey

This paper aims to determine optimal hedge strategy for the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE)-30 stock index futures in Turkey by comparing hedging performance of constant and time-varying hedge ratios under mean-variance utility criteria. We employ standard regression and bivariate GARCH frameworks to estimate constant and time-varying hedge ratios respectively. The Turkish case is particularly challenging since Turkey has one of the most volatile stock markets among emerging economies and the turnover ratio as a measure of liquidity is very high for the market. These facts can be considered to highlight the great risk and, therefore, the extra need for hedging in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). The empirical results from the study reveal that the dynamic hedge strategy outperforms the static and the traditional strategies.     

中国能源期货的对冲模型比较研究

本文以中国燃料油期货及现货数据为例,介绍了中国能源市场中对冲实践的一系列流程:从理论框架、模型选择、数据检验、对冲期限到对冲有效性检验。本文遵循该流程,对比了基于最小方差和效用最大化两类理论框架下的四类模型(OLS、VAR和两类不同的误差修正向量GARCH模型)。实证研究发现:(1)对冲效果与对冲期限呈现先上升后下降的倒U型关系;(2)在效用最大化理论框架下,采用基于向量的GARCH模型和15天动态对冲策略的投资组合对冲后修正夏普比率高达2.95,提升风险收益比的效果十分显著。     

Multiperiod Strip Hedging of Forward Commitments

This paper empirically compares two multiperiod hedging strategies—a strip hedge and a stack-and-roll hedge—to hedge a forward commitment. The multiperiod strip hedge is found to outperform the stack-and-roll hedge when forward prices are subject to multiple sources of price uncertainty and to perform no better when only one source of uncertainty is present. Moreover, the relative superiority of the strip hedge increases with the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty. Last, the strip hedge is found to be more costly to trade than the stack-and-roll hedge; however, its cost varies directly with its superiority at reducing risk.     

Hedging with Chinese Aluminum Futures: International Evidence with Return and Volatility Spillover Indices Under Structural Breaks

This paper examines the hedging performance of the Shanghai futures market, with the London futures market acting as the channel for volatility spillover. Taking into consideration structural change, basis effects, and return and volatility spillover effects, the authors find that the estimated hedging performance is not improved. Their findings suggest that the effectiveness of the hedging performance of aluminum futures contracts in China is not affected by the magnitude or direction of return and volatility spillovers. Therefore, even when the magnitude and direction of volatility spillover from other markets can be correctly predicted, the hedging performance of a futures contract cannot be significantly improved. This paper uses precise measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers based directly on the framework of vector autoregressive variance decompositions. The study also includes an analysis of both crisis and noncrisis episodes, with modeling on bursts in spillovers.     

恒生指数和沪深300股指期货套期保值效果对比研究

本文利用OLS、ECM、ECM-GARCH模型对沪深300股指期货和恒生指数期货的最优套期保值率进行了估算,并在风险最小化框架下对它们的套期保值效果进行了对比研究。结果发现:无论是哪种股指期货,不考虑期现货间存在的协整关系会使估算的最优套期保值率偏高,影响套期保值效果;其次是虽然在样本内外,沪深300股指期货的套期保值效果比恒生指数期货的好,但是沪深300股指期货套期保值效果的稳定性比恒生指数差。此时,ECM-GARCH和OLS模型分别为样本内外投资者利用沪深300指数期货进行套期保值时的最佳选择;对于恒生指数股指期货,最优模型是ECM。     

中国期货市场套期保值绩效实证研究

为了研究中国期货市场的套期保值绩效，本文利用确定套期保值比率的OLS、B-VAR、ECHM和EC—GARCH四个模型和套期保值绩效的衡量指标，对中国期货的小麦、大豆、铜和铝的套期保值比率和绩效进行了实证研究，使用1998～2004年中国期货与现货价格的周数据来进行单位根和协整检验等计量分析。研究显示，金属期货品种的套期保值比率和绩效比农产品期货品种的套期保值比率和绩效都要高。考虑了协整关系的ECHM和EC—GARCH模型的套期保值比率和绩效比没有考虑协整关系的OLS和B—VAR模型高，样本区间外的套期保值绩效优于样本区间内的绩效。本文认为采用ECMH和EC—GARCH模型进行套朔保值是最佳的策略。     

Jump-Dependent Model for Optimal Index Futures Hedging in Five Major Asian Stock Markets

This article develops a jump-dependent model to capture the dependences between spot and futures returns and their jumps simultaneously, named JD model. We examine hedging performance of the presenting JD model for the futures contracts of Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The results have shown that the JD model has better out-of-sample performance than the OLS for Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Since these three markets have higher jump dependence between spot and futures, we consider that jump dependence plays an important role in hedging performance. The higher jump dependence means spot and futures markets move more closely when unusual news reveals itself and thus futures could hedge the spot more effectively when extreme unusual news arrives.     

期货最优套期保值比率研究评述

套期保值、价格发现、资产配置是期货市场的三大基本职能。而在这三种职能中,最为重要的是套期保值,它是期货市场得以生存和发展的关键动因。在国内外套期保值研究中,最优套期保值比率的估计是套期保值研究最为核心的问题。而运用期货套期保值理论进行实践更是随着套期保值比率估计模型的不断优化、完善而向前发展的,本文通过对国内外套期保值研究相关文献进行分类,整理,综述,梳理出最优套期保值比率估计的研究思路和相关实证技术路线,概括出国内外最优套保比率的研究框架,以此来向国内相关研究学者指出未来的进一步研究方向,同时对国内期货交易主体进行套期保值操作提供了估计模型的选择建议。     

Ex Ante Hedging Effectiveness of UK Stock Index Futures Contracts: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 Contracts

Ex ante hedging effectiveness of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts is examined for a range of portfolios, consisting of stock market indexes and professionally managed portfolios (investment trust companies). Previous studies which focused on ex post hedging performance using spot portfolios that mirror market indexes are shown to overstate the risk reduction potential of index futures. Although ex ante hedge ratios are found to be characterised by intertemporal instability, ex ante hedging performance of direct hedges and cross hedges approaches that of the ex post benchmark when hedge ratios are estimated using a sufficient window size.     

危机后期货市场的表现及政策建议

本轮金融危机中,金融衍生品成为众矢之的。对场外衍生品和场内衍生品不加区分,造成了人们对场内衍生品的误解。数据分析表明,以期货为代表的场内衍生品市场在此次金融危机中表现稳定,继续发挥功能作用。危机之后,大力稳步发展以期货为代表的场内衍生品,将有助于提高我国的国际影响力和在国际大宗商品定价中的话语权。     

Price Limits and Margin Requirements in Futures Markets

This paper investigates the hypothesis that futures exchanges could use daily price limits as a substitute for higher margin requirements. The empirical results show that the size of margin is negatively correlated with the presence of price limits. Evidence points to the portfolio adjustment costs theory as an explanation of the benefits from price limits. The empirical results cast doubt on the notion that price limits should be abolished. The results also confirm that exchanges have set margin requirements according to economic theories.     

中国农产品期货主力及近月合约套期保值效果研究

主力合约和近月合约的偏离是中国期货市场特有的现实问题,它在一定程度上阻碍对中国期货市场功能的发挥。文章以ZCE棉花和DCE豆一期货为代表对中国农产品期货市场进行研究,研究发现,中国ZCE棉花和DCE豆一期货的近月合约套期保值效果明显优于主力合约套期保值效果,但均远远低于发达期货市场的套期保值效果。根据研究结果,本研究结合实际提出几个有针对性的措施,以利于中国农产品期货功能的发挥。     

期货市场的交易量与价格波动

本文检验了美国期货市场WTI原油、S＆P500指数和10年期国债品种的日内、日间价格波动与日内交易量、隔日交易量之间的关系,发现预期的日内和隔日交易量都有平抑期货市场价格波动的作用,非预期的隔日交易量与期货价格波动之间有正相关关系,非预期的目内交易量对价格波动的影响不显著。从信息对称性的角度分析,预期的交易量中含有更多信息,能抑制期货价格的偏离;非预期的交易量主要由信息反馈者提供,他们往往对期货价格的变动做出过度反应,从而加剧价格波动。     

韩国应对亚洲金融危机的经验及启示

20世纪70-80年代,经济崛起中的东亚经济体遵循金融深化的发展思路,纷纷开始了金融自由化进程。然而,1997年亚洲金融危机的爆发使得东亚经济体遭遇重创,韩国经济也陷入战后以来最严峻的时期。为应对危机,韩国政府果断地对金融体系进行改革,逐渐走出了危机的阴霭。韩国与我国有着相近的文化、历史背景及经济增长道路,经济社会的可比因素较多,韩国面临的一些经济金融困境对我国是难得的“前车之鉴”。分析韩国1997年金融危机爆发的原因、影响及应对策略,无疑会给我国正在推进的金融体制改革提供有益的借鉴。     

我国证券交易所推出股指期货的法律基础

股指期货的推出需要一定的条件,其中法律环境是重要条件之一.本文结合我国的具体法律制度,借鉴国外的立法经验,对当前我国证券交易所推出股指期货进行了法律可行性分析,并提出相关的法律建议与对策.     

金融危机与对冲基金新趋势

本轮危机之前的对冲基金利用良好的表现遮盖了其高杠杆和其它一些结构性等问题。危机之中,正是对冲基金的去杠杆化使风险放大,引发了全球金融风暴。危机过后的基金,痛定思痛,正通过改变策略,走出困境。重点对对冲基金的最新变化趋势进行了分析。     

Price Discovery,Causality and Forecasting in the Freight Futures Market

This paper investigates the causal relationship between futures and spot prices in the freight futures market. Being a thinly traded market whose underlying asset is a service, sets it apart from other markets investigated so far in the literature. Causality tests, generalised impulse response analysis and forecasting performance evaluation indicate that futures prices tend to discover new information more rapidly than spot prices. Revisions in the composition of the underlying index to make it more homogeneous, have strengthened the price discovery role of futures prices. The information incorporated in futures prices, when formulated as a VECM, produces more accurate forecasts of spot prices than the VAR, ARIMA and random-walk models, over several steps ahead. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Tale of Two Index Futures: The Intraday Price Discovery and Volatility Transmission Processes Between the China Financial Futures Exchange and the Singapore Exchange

This is the first study to examine the intraday price discovery and volatility transmission processes between the Singapore Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange. Using one- and five-minute high-frequency data from May to November 2011, the authors find that the Chinese Securities Index 300 index futures dominate Singapore's A50 index futures in both intraday price discovery and intraday volatility transmission. However, A50 futures contracts also make a substantial contribution (26-37 percent) to the price discovery process. These results have important implications for both traders and policymakers.     

期货市场的发展与上海国际金融中心建设

国际金融中心都有发达的期货市场,期货市场在国际金融中心变迁中发挥着重要作用,成为现阶段国际金融中心建设的突破口。上海期货市场已具备了加快发展的条件和基础,当前所面临的瓶颈问题是期货品种需要进一步完善,需要采取做深做精现有期货品种、探索开展期货保税交割业务等具体措施进一步发展上海期货市场,从而助力于上海国际金融中心的建设。