多元化战略管理:决策程序及其理论依据

通过对多元化战略的理论回顾,总结多元化战略管理研究的理论流派,多元化战略管理理论对中国企业进行多元化决策的指导意义,并创造性地提出了多元化战略管理决策程序及其理论依据,试图初步建立起多元化理论与企业实践操作间联系的纽带。     

An Intelligent Distributed System for Strategic Decision Making

The decision-making process in strategic planning is often too complex to be handled by conventional methods. Strategic planning problems (building new plans, new product planning, etc.) belong to the class of problems called ill-structured by H. Simon. They involve a decomposition of the main problem into a set of subproblems, a reasoning process at the subproblem level, and then a coordinated and aggregated process to build a global solution. Because partial solutions are generated without having a complete view of the global objective, this type of decision-making process very often generates incoherent and contradictory hypotheses and actions. Therefore, the main problem is to find a way to achieve coherence and coordination among decisions made locally by different agents, at different levels.Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence, particularly in the field of multi-agent theory, offer great promises in modeling strategic planning processes. In this article we present a general framework called 'A Coherent Plan of Coordinated Actions (CPCA)' for building intelligent distributed strategic decision making systems which integrates advances in both distributed decision making and Distributed Artificial Intelligence. We then describe a multi-blackboard system, ARISTOTE, which is aimed at helping corporate managers address the feasibility and coherence of a plan of actions.     

Challenging Group Support Systems Research: The Case for Strategic Decision Making

Strategic decision making (SDM) often occurs in groups that can benefit from the use of group support systems (GSS). However, no comprehensive review of this logical intersection has been made. We explore this intersection by viewing GSS research through the lens of SDM. First, SDM is broadly characterized and a model of GSS-mediated SDM is produced. Second, we review empirical GSS research linking these findings to the characteristics of SDM. We conclude that GSS research has not produced sufficient knowledge about group history, heterogeneity, member experience, task type, time pressure, technology or tool effects, and decision consensus for a favorable evaluation of SDM in GSS groups. SDM in GSS groups challenges researchers to study the effects of group processes such as those just mentioned in a context that involves ongoing and established groups, political activity, and a multiplicity of tasks.     

Using and Valuing Accounting Information: Joint Decision Making Between Accountants and Retail Managers

Using accounting information can be complex and difficult because it requires joint decision making between two groups, accountants and line managers, whose different perspectives may interfere with communication and exchange. Interpersonal tension and mistrust may further intensify barriers to problem solving. Deutsch's theory of cooperation and competition was used to examine the interaction between managers and accountants as they made decisions with accounting information. Thirty-three managers from a large food retailer were interviewed on critical incidents. Structural equation and other results support the argument that cooperative goal interdependence induces an open-minded discussion of opposing views. This in turn results in productive decisions and strong relationships which in turn lead to appreciating and valuing the importance of collecting and using accounting and financial information. These relationships seemed to hold across accounting roles. Results were interpreted as suggesting that developing strongly cooperative goals and the skills of constructive controversy can facilitate productive problem solving between accountants and line managers.     

企业战略管理的信息范式

传统的企业战略管理理论是基于安德鲁斯的把战略管理过程分为制订和实施的两阶段模型,沿着企业外部环境和企业内部因素两个维度展开的广泛研究,形成战略管理各理论流派。结合博弈论与信息经济学理论提出一种新战略管理理论范式,使得当前各主要理论被整合在这一范式之下,使战略管理理论沿着科学化方向发展成为可能。     

论关系营销中的道德决策

本文在分析亨特和维特尔营销道德理论模型，探讨其在关系营销应用中出现的缺陷的基础上，试图构建一个关系营销中的道德决策模型作为补充，并结合现实环境对企业营销道德决策过程进行了分析。     

Ethical Decision Making and the Employed Lawyer

This article addresses one of the more disturbing questions raised by the major financial failures of the recent past; namely, how it could be that professionals, highly trained both in ethics and technical disciplines, should apparently collude with management in corporate misbehaviour. The article builds on evidence suggesting that professionals in employment contexts find ways of adapting in order to minimise perceived or actual conflict between their professional and organizational obligations and that this, in turn, may affect the way in which they exercise professional judgment. It uses identity theory to propose that professionals may adopt modified identities when employed and that these identities may be expressed, in part, in the way in which they resolve ethical dilemmas. The article reports on the results of a qualitative study in which corporate counsel showed evidence of adopting these identities. The findings suggest that this line of research offers insight into a far more complex world of employed professionals than that traditionally hypothesised and that the popular approach of regulators and others to monitoring corporate governance by appointing professionals as gate-keepers within the organization is perhaps problematic.     

Applying Multiattribute-Based Group Decision Making Techniques in Complex Equipment Selection Tasks

A practicing industrial engineer, even an experienced decision maker, needs help in the sense that there is a necessity to use more logical or analytical decision support tools, especially when dealing with control and instrumentation projects which are often worth millions of dollars. In this article we propose an algorithm which can support the process of group decision making relating to industrial automation, especially involving the selection of control and instrumentation equipment. The aim of this article is to look only at the algorithm's application and how it is applied. To this end, two test cases are used as examples: (1) selecting a local area network for installation in an academic environment; and (2) selecting an integrated control system for a real-world pulp and paper mill. Obtained results show that the algorithm leads to a satisfactory solution. A software form of the algorithm is being programmed for use as a decision support tool.     

金融发展与企业家创业决策

分析金融机构监督成本与企业家创业之间的联系。在各企业家具备同样的融资能力的情况下,由于全融机构的监督成本不同,将出现不同的决策。在高监督成本下,只有一部分潜在企业家选择创业,全融机构为这些企业家提供较少的融资;在低监督成本下,将有更多的潜在企业家选择创业,并能获得较多的融资。     

High Stakes Decision Making: Normative,Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations

This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme is that resolving high-stakes decisions optimally poses a formidable challenge not only to naïve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools, such as decision analysis. Such decisions are difficult to make because precise information about probabilities is not available, and the dynamics of the decision are complex. When faced with such problems, naïve decision-makers fall prey to a wide range of potentially harmful biases, such as failing to recognize a high-stakes problem, ignoring the information about probabilities that does exist, and responding to complexity by accepting the status quo. A proposed agenda for future research focuses on how the process and outcomes of high-stakes decision making might be improved.     

Simple Decision Aids and Consumer Decision Making

To help consumers deal with increasing amounts of information, many online retailers offer simple decision aids, such as the ability to sort on a particular attribute or eliminate undesired alternatives. The authors propose that consumers use simple decision aids as substitutes for cognitive effort, potentially with adverse consequences for decision making. An experimental study shows that providing unrestricted sorting increases decision quality only when choice conflict is low; beyond a certain point, greater use of the decision aid is associated with declines in decision quality. A second study shows that that allowing consumers to sort alternatives only one time enhances decision quality and, when choice conflict is high, reduces decision effort. A third study shows that providing elimination as well as sorting tools helps mitigate the negative effects of simple decision aids. Although the availability of sorting alone hurts decision quality when choice conflict is high, decision quality under choice conflict is improved when both sorting and elimination tools are provided. Implications for retail practice are discussed.     

AHP-Group Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach Based on Mixtures for Group Pattern Identification

This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation procedure to determine the priorities of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in group decision making when there are a large number of actors and a prior consensus among them is not required. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach based on mixtures to describe the prior distribution of the priorities in the multiplicative model traditionally used in the stochastic AHP, this methodology allows us to identify homogeneous groups of actors with different patterns of behaviour for the rankings of priorities. The proposed procedure consists of a two-step estimation algorithm: the first step carries out a global exploration of the model space by using birth and death processes, the second concerns a local exploration by means of Gibbs sampling. The methodology has been illustrated by the analysis of a case study adapted from a real experiment on e-democracy developed for the City Council of Zaragoza (Spain). Partially funded under the research project Electronic Government. Internet-based Complex Decision Making: e-democracy and e-cognocracy (Ref. PM2004-052) approved by the Regional Government of Aragon (Spain) as part of the multi-disciplinary projects programme.     

Ethical Decision Making: A Comparison of Computer- Supported and Face-to-face Group

This study compares computer-supported groups, i.e., groups using group support systems (GSS), and face-to-face groups using ethical decision-making tasks. A laboratory experiment was conducted using five-person groups of information systems professionals. Face-to-face (FTF) and GSS groups were compared in terms of their decision outcomes and group members' reactions. The results revealed that computer-supported and face-to-face groups showed no significant difference in terms of the decision outcomes of choice shift and decision polarity. However, FTF groups reached their decisions more quickly and they were more successful in attaining group consensus than GSS groups. Subjects evaluated face-to-face communication more favorably than GSS interaction on most post-group measures related to perceived group processes and satisfaction. Despite these outcomes, some possibilities for using GSS technology in an ethical decision making context are examined.     

Cognition, Persuasion and Decision Making in Older Consumers

Older adults constitute a rapidly growing demographic segment, but relatively little is known about them within consumer contexts: how they process information, respond to persuasive messages, and make decisions. We discuss extant findings from consumer behavior and related disciplines (e.g., cognitive psychology, neuroscience, social psychology, gerontology) as they pertain to the effects of aging on consumer memory, persuasion and decision The first two authors co-chaired the workshop at the Choice Symposium and made major and equal contributions to this article. The remaining authors were participants in the workshop. They also contributed to this article and are listed in alphabetical order. We wish to thank the editor and Cathy Cole for their helpful comments on the paper. The article, including a more complete list of references, was shortened to meet the page-length constraints of the special issue. The longer version is available upon request from the senior authors.     

基于商业伦理观的商誉成本计量与决策分析

企业在商业活动中,以道德的行为来影响商誉价值,而商誉价值的提升,是需要付出一定代价的。商誉成本是维持或提高企业商誉价值所付出的代价或费用,并是商业伦理决策过程中或商誉决策时所必须考虑的一个重要因素。基于商业伦理观的商誉成本的正确计量及决策分析是企业在战略的角度提升商誉价值的关键所在。     

Decision making under conditions of conflict

A real-world application is employed to explain three general types of decision situations that can arise under conditions of conflict. In addition, meaningful connections and relationships among these areas of decision making are clearly pointed out. To permit useful decision technologies to be employed by practitioners for better understanding and for resolving a variety of actual decision problems, a range of flexible decision support systems is discussed. Subsequently, interesting research developments contained in the upcoming sequence of 12 articles on decision making under conflict are summarized and compared. The research articles not only present unique approaches to decision making involving multiple participants, each of whom may have multiple objectives, but suggest a variety of challenging research problems to be investigated in the future.     

An Interactive Approach to Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making with Multigranular Uncertain Linguistic Information

The multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems having multiple sources of uncertain linguistic information assessed in different linguistic label sets are investigated. The existing linguistic labels in a linguistic label set are uniformly and symmetrically distributed, but in many real-life situations, the unbalanced linguistic information appears due to the nature of the linguistic variables used in the problems (Herrera and Herrera-Viedma, Proceedings of 4th international workshop on preferences and decisions, Trento, Italy, 2003). In this paper, we first define some unbalanced linguistic label sets, and then develop some transformation functions to unify the given multigranular linguistic labels in a unique linguistic label set without loss of information. Moreover, we utilize the uncertain linguistic weighted averaging operator to aggregate all individual uncertain linguistic decision matrices into a collective one, and define two similarity measures, one for measuring the similarity degree between each pair of uncertain linguistic variables, and the other for checking the consensus degrees among the individual uncertain linguistic decision matrices and the collective uncertain linguistic decision matrix. Finally, we develop an interactive approach to MAGDM with multigranular uncertain linguistic information and illustrate the developed approach with an application example.     

Personal Values’ Influence on the Ethical Dimension of Decision Making

Personal values have long been associated with individual decision behavior. The role played by personal values in decision making within an organization is less clear. Past research has found that managers tend to respond to ethical dilemmas situationally. This study examines the relationship between personal values and the ethical dimension of decision making using Partial Least Squares (PLS) analysis. The study examines personal values as they relate to five types of ethical dilemmas. We found a significant positive contribution of altruistic values to ethical decision making and a significant negative contribution of self-enhancement values to ethical decision making. Dr. David J. Fritzsche is a retired Professor of Management and Organization at The Pennsylvania State University, Great Valley. Among the numerous journals in which he published are Journal of Business Ethics, Academy of Management Journal, Journal of Macromarketing, and Simulation & Games. He is the co-author of the Business Policy Game: A Strategic Management Simulation. He authoured the book Business Ethics: A Global and Managerial Perspective (McGraw-Hill, 1997). Dr. Effy Oz is a Professor of Management Science and Information Systems at The Pennsylvania State University, Great Valley, where he teaches courses on IT management, ethical issues in IT, and business-stakeholder relations. He has authored several textbooks including five editions of Management Information Systems (Course Technology Inc., 1998–2006), Foundations of E-Commerce (Prentice-Hall, 2002) and, Ethics for the Information Age (McGraw-Hill, 1994), and a practitioner’s book (The Manager’s Bible, Ivy League Publishing, 1998). He has also published research articles in academic and professional journals, among which are MIS Quarterly, Communications of the ACM, Information & Management, Decisions Sciences, OMEGA, Journal of Business Ethics, and Journal of Computer Information Systems. Dr. Oz is a member of the editorial boards of Encyclopaedia of Information Systems, Information & Management, and Journal of Global Information Technology Management. He is a frequent speaker at IT conferences, has conducted research on a number of IT topics, and has been quoted in numerous media including Computerworld, MSNBC, and the Los Angeles Times. He was awarded the 1997 Notable Contribution to the Information Systems Literature Award by the Information Systems Section of the American Accounting Association, the 1999-2000 Distinguished Faculty Research Award at Penn State Great Valley, and Best Paper Award at the Annual Global Information Technology Conference of 2004.     

基于可能度的多混合属性决策方法

针对权重信息已知且属性值为混合型的多属性决策,对用模糊语言和实数表示的属性进行了区间化处理,从而把多混合属性决策转化为属性值为区间数的多属性决策。然后基于新定义的可能度计算公式,给出多混合属性决策的可能度法,通过民航实例说明方法的可行性和有效性。     

资本结构优化定量决策方法综述

资本结构优化,需要解决优化的目标,何为最优资本结构,以及如何达到最优资本结构等问题,其中计算最优债务权益比是决策的关键内容。按照综合资本成本最低、股东财富最大化、企业价值最大化和多目标综合考虑等不同标准,对现有最优资本结构定量决策方法进行分类和评述,可以为资本结构优化决策提供依据。