Applying Multiattribute-Based Group Decision Making Techniques in Complex Equipment Selection Tasks

A practicing industrial engineer, even an experienced decision maker, needs help in the sense that there is a necessity to use more logical or analytical decision support tools, especially when dealing with control and instrumentation projects which are often worth millions of dollars. In this article we propose an algorithm which can support the process of group decision making relating to industrial automation, especially involving the selection of control and instrumentation equipment. The aim of this article is to look only at the algorithm's application and how it is applied. To this end, two test cases are used as examples: (1) selecting a local area network for installation in an academic environment; and (2) selecting an integrated control system for a real-world pulp and paper mill. Obtained results show that the algorithm leads to a satisfactory solution. A software form of the algorithm is being programmed for use as a decision support tool.     

Decision making and decision aiding: Defining the process,it representations,and support

We present a formalized account of decision making as a multistep process that involves several classes of participating entities. The purpose of this article is to lay the foundations for a conceptual framework in which decision support systems can be placed. A series of increasingly formal representations of the decision problem are developed, from a mental model conceived by the decision maker to a knowledge base that may be used in a decision support system. The reformulations of the decision problem lead us to contemplate different forms of support: for mental models, for formal models (this includes supporting measurement and representation), for solution, and for communication.     

Franchise partner selection decision making

This paper aims to investigate international franchise partner selection from the perspective of different decision making models and analyse the influence of organisational factors on the franchise selection decision making. Empirical data were collected from a leading international hotel group through multiple data collection methods. The research findings indicate that the participant organisation mainly exploits a processual approach to decision making. Power over the decision making shifts to different levels where the necessary information can best be accumulated and interpreted in different stages of the process. Different organisational parameters interact and exert influence upon each other while a franchise organisation decides to choose the most appropriate franchise partner.     

A Self-regulating Information Acquisition Algorithm for Preventing Choice Regret in Multi-perspective Decision Making

In a world filled with an increasing number of choices people must carefully select the information they acquire in order to make sound decisions that they will not regret in the future. This ranges from everyday life decisions to those made by experts in the business world. The authors introduce a novel information acquisition algorithm based on the value that information has when preventing a decision maker from regretting his or her current decision. The main features of the model include the capacity to account for different risk attitudes of the decision maker as well as his or her forward-looking behavior, the ability to assess choice objects (projects or products) defined by multiple characteristics and a self-regulation mechanism for the information acquisition process, even in the absence of information acquisition costs. The main properties of the algorithm are examined numerically.     

模糊群决策方法在中间商选择中的应用研究

企业在选择中间商时往往面临着候选伙伴评价指标信息获取的困难,为了使决策科学合理,采用群决策方法集成各领域不同专家的信息,通过语言变量把专家的主观判断转化为对应模糊数,建立相应的数学模型,并计算出用模糊数表示的候选者综合评价值。     

High Stakes Decision Making: Normative,Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations

This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme is that resolving high-stakes decisions optimally poses a formidable challenge not only to naïve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools, such as decision analysis. Such decisions are difficult to make because precise information about probabilities is not available, and the dynamics of the decision are complex. When faced with such problems, naïve decision-makers fall prey to a wide range of potentially harmful biases, such as failing to recognize a high-stakes problem, ignoring the information about probabilities that does exist, and responding to complexity by accepting the status quo. A proposed agenda for future research focuses on how the process and outcomes of high-stakes decision making might be improved.     

Managerial judgment and forecast combination: An experimental study

This paper examines the role of managerial judgment in forming a final forecast, or judging the achievability of a critical level of sales, when multiple forecasts or opinions are available to the decision maker. Several factors that can help improve the quality of human intervention are identified and incorporated in a decision aid. Experimental results show that aided combination can help the decision maker exploit her relevant private information and mitigate the generally observed negative effects of human intervention. Further, the results suggest that emphasizing expected sales, even when the organization is primarily interested in go/no-go decisions, helps improve performance. Several suggestions for future research are presented.

相似文献   

Household preference revisions and decision making: The role of disconfirmation

In this paper, we examine the role of disconfirmation as an important determinant of household preference revisions and decision making. Although prior research has examined decision influence and information exchange in household decision making, the impact of disconfirmation on individual family member preferences and the joint household preference has not been explicitly studied. Analogous to the main types of social influence found within groups, we identify two types of disconfirmation that impact individual preferences arising from family interaction or discussion. These two types of disconfirmation are informational disconfirmation, related to new product information revealed in family discussion being different than one's prior beliefs, and preference disconfirmation, where a family member has incorrect expectations of the preferences of other influential household members. An empirical study involving a household vacation decision demonstrates significant disconfirmation effects in explaining individuals' post-discussion preferences, as well as the joint household preference and decision. Based on the empirical results, we discuss various implications and suggest future research to study the specific consequences of disconfirmation in household decisions.     

Negotiation in engineering design

Concurrent design may shorten the duration of a design project, reduce cost, and improve quality of the final design. However, due to the diversified problem-solving knowledge and different goal setting between design agents, it may increase the number of conflicts and make the project more difficult to manage. In this article, a goal-directed negotiation model for resolving conflicts in a cooperative design environment is presented. The proposed model generates negotiation sets, analyzes utilities derived for each design agent, and evaluates them based on three decision rules: maximization of the joint utility, minimization of individual utility differences, and minimization of individual utility differences and maximization of joint utility. A compromise solution is reached iteratively. The approach proposed in this articles is concerned not just with satisfying design constraints, but attempts to maximize system objectives. An example of the poppet relief valve is used to demonstrate the negotiation concept.     

Cultural and Ethical Effects on Managerial Decisions: Examined in a Throughput Model

Financial and cost accounting information is processed by decision-makers guided by their particular need to support decisions. Recent technological advances impacting on information as well as organizations such as the European Community mandating financial reporting requirements for many countries is rapidly changing the landscape for decision making using accounting information. Hence, the importance of individuals' decision making is more important than it was previously. These decisions are also influenced by individuals' ethical beliefs. The Throughput Modeling approach to cultural and ethical concerns provides a way of dealing with accounting information processed through various pathways by decision-makers. This modeling approach captures different philosophical perspectives from which to understand what is involved in "thinking scientifically." In the Throughput Modeling approach, pathways highlight the importance of how different philosophical perspectives may be used by individuals in arriving at a decision. This paper highlights key concepts involved in rethinking the basis of moral decision making in terms of an underlying process, rather than focusing on the application of principles or the development of a virtuous character. Examples are provided from both English and Spanish settings to help emphasize the importance of modeling ethical decision making globally.     

Embrace the debate: Goals,de-marketing overconsumption,and conflicting information

When faced with conflicting information, consumers often wonder what the “right” consumption level is. A highly relevant context that is often associated with such uncertainty is food consumption (e.g., of meat or dairy products), where consumers seek information to determine whether and how much to consume, and often a recommended goal from health experts is to reduce overconsumption. We apply the theory of goal settings as reflecting such information, focusing on specific goals (e.g., “eat meat twice a week”) versus general goals (“eat less meat”). Based on a series of three experiments in both online and field settings with 674 participants overall, we show that in food consumption contexts with conflicting information, general goals set by health experts are less effective than specific goals in battling overconsumption. Perceived value of information was identified as the underlying mechanism as it mediated the effect of conflicting information on reduced overconsumption. Prior work suggests conflicting information is typically disadvantageous for consumers. Our research demonstrates how consumers can benefit from communication emphasizing specific goals when information conflicts. It contributes to policymakers, health experts, and social marketers that search for effective marketing strategies to reduce overconsumption of items that may be associated with conflicting information.     

Aggregation of Individual Preference Structures in Ahp-Group Decision Making

This paper presents a new procedure, to which we have given the name Aggregation of Individual Preference Structures (AIPS), whose objective is to deal with multiactor decision making when using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the methodological support. This procedure incorporates ideas similar to Borda count methods and transfers to the case of preference structures the principle of aggregation employed in the two approaches traditionally followed in AHP-group decision making (aggregation of individual judgments and aggregation of individual priorities). The new aggregation method allows us to capture: (i) the richness of uncertainty inherent to human beings; (ii) the vision of each decision maker within the context of the problem; (iii) the interdependencies between the alternatives being compared and (iv) the intensities of the preferences that each decision maker gives to these interdependencies. From the preference structure distribution associated to each decision maker, this new approach (AIPS) provides the holistic importance of each alternative and ranking, as well as the most representative preference structure distribution for the group. The knowledge derived from these could be employed as an initial step in the search for consensus, which characterises the negotiation processes followed by the actors involved in the resolution of decisional problems. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the GDN2005 Conference held at Vienna. The work has been partially funded under Research Projects “Electronic Government. Internet-based Complex Decision Making: e-democracy and e-cognocracy” (Ref. PM2004-052) and “Internet-based Complex Decision Making. Decisional Tools for e-cognocracy” (Ref. TSI2005-02511).     

Simple Decision Aids and Consumer Decision Making

To help consumers deal with increasing amounts of information, many online retailers offer simple decision aids, such as the ability to sort on a particular attribute or eliminate undesired alternatives. The authors propose that consumers use simple decision aids as substitutes for cognitive effort, potentially with adverse consequences for decision making. An experimental study shows that providing unrestricted sorting increases decision quality only when choice conflict is low; beyond a certain point, greater use of the decision aid is associated with declines in decision quality. A second study shows that that allowing consumers to sort alternatives only one time enhances decision quality and, when choice conflict is high, reduces decision effort. A third study shows that providing elimination as well as sorting tools helps mitigate the negative effects of simple decision aids. Although the availability of sorting alone hurts decision quality when choice conflict is high, decision quality under choice conflict is improved when both sorting and elimination tools are provided. Implications for retail practice are discussed.     

Reaching informed agreement in multispecialist cooperation

Very often, complex decisions must be made by a group of specialists rather than a single decision maker. To make an effective decision, the combination of the group's expertise must be brought to bear on the situation. Fusing expertise where individuals have very detailed knowledge in their own areas and much weaker understanding of others is characterized by many difficulties: (1) agents cannot communicate their expertise in an intelligible way to nonexperts because of differences in vocabulary and conceptual content; (2) the process allows for incorrect inferences; and (3) no one knows what anyone else needs to know. This impasse cannot be broken until shared mental models are developed to provide a level of agreement in evaluating alternatives needed to focus the activity of the group. This article presents a model of decision making by teams of specialists in which agents' evaluations confound expert and naive inferences in judging alternatives. A partitioning of agent knowledge into expert and naive models is proposed. The naive portion of agents' models provides both a common language and the inferential skeleton needed for the development of shared models. Communications are categorized into types of evaluation or justification based on their form and the entities they involve within the agent models. A process of model refinement is outlined, linking communications among agents to modifications of the naive/ shared portions of their models. The process of cooperative problem solving by a team of specialists is characterized as a search among alternatives in which model refinement continually alters the agents' evaluations, leading to progressively greater accuracy and more precisely directed search. The model is intended as a research tool for investigating multiagent problem solving among people and machines.     

Profiling consumers in home ware stores according to their decision‐making process: an exploratory study

Despite the growing interest of South African consumers regarding home ware, insufficient research is available regarding their decision making of this product category. The objectives of this exploratory study were to evaluate consumers' decision‐making process regarding home ware, and to suggest consumer profiles of the home ware based on the decision‐making process. A qualitative research strategy was used to purposively recruit both male and female participants walking around a home ware store. Semi‐structured interviews were used to collect data from 33 participants at which point data saturation was reached. Each step of the decision‐making process was investigated during the interviews, using questions relevant to the purchasing of home ware. The results indicated clear differences as well as similarities in home ware consumers' decision‐making process. It was evident that the decision‐making process was a result of their specific need for a home ware product. Consumers evaluated home ware based on their needs, values and personal style, while making their final product choice based on product quality, appearance and price. It was also possible to identify home ware consumer profiles based on an evaluation of their decision‐making process. Four profiles were identified, namely, the quality‐conscious, the fashion‐conscious, the lifestyle‐orientated and the impulsive home ware consumer. The characteristics associated with each profile should provide the growing home ware market with insight regarding the specific needs and preferences of the consumer. Seeing that this study was only exploratory in nature, it is recommended that further research regarding the purchasing of home ware should be done.     

Perspectives on representation and analysis of negotiation: Towards cognitive support systems

The rapid expansion of Decision and Negotiation Support Systems has been built mainly on decision-theoretic approaches. This has resulted in the decision maker being viewed through the lens of the problem. In this article, the focus is on the decision maker's view of the problem. Three levels of problem articulation are described. Special emphasis is placed on the needs level and the implications it carries for the cognitive and instrumental levels. The three levels of articulation, the organizational model of making decision in social settings, and the three basic approaches to decision making form the basis for computer support focused on understanding and change rather than preferences and outcomes. We argue that in the dynamic, interactive context characteristic of negotiations, a cognitive support system based on restructurable modeling provides a richer basis for support.     

Consumer socialization,social structural factors and decision‐making styles: a case study of adolescents in Malaysia

The purpose of this study is to investigate how the process of consumer socialization will determine adolescents’ decision‐making styles. Eight decision‐making styles were conceptualized as outcomes of the socialization process, which is acquired via interaction with socialization agents, namely parents, peers, printed media, television commercials and in‐school education. The study also proposed five social structural variables (social class, gender, ethnicity, residence and religion) as being associated with the socialization agents and decision‐making styles. The study sample consisted of 934 adolescents between the ages of 16 and 19 years. The data were collected using a self‐administered questionnaire and analysed with the SPSS computer program. As a result of regression analyses, significant relationships were found between social structural factors and socialization processes, suggesting that the influence of socialization agents on adolescents may vary according to certain demographic characteristics. Significant relationships were also found between social structural factors and socialization processes. Peers appeared to be the most important agents of consumer socialization, contributing to a variety of desirable as well as undesirable consumer decision styles. Printed media and television commercials were also found to be significant sources of the acquisition of both desirable and undesirable decision‐making styles. Parents and in‐school education, however, were insignificant in the acquisition of any decision‐making styles among adolescents. Information obtained from this study could be useful to government agencies and consumer educators. The most revealing finding of this study is that parents did not contribute to the formulation of decision‐making orientation for adolescents. This points to the need for consumer educators to take steps in designing programmes that will involve parents as primary socialization agents at home; this may be facilitated via printed materials. Apart from this, the information can also be helpful in enabling marketers to be more effective in targeting various adolescent markets by formulating marketing strategies according to demographic factors, socialization process and decision‐making styles.     

Rational Moralists and Moral Rationalists Value-Based Management: Model,Criterion and Validation

This paper considers ethical decision making by blending three streams of related research: cognitive moral development of the decision maker, rational choice theory and a subjective expected utility model. Ethical dilemmas can be defined as situations where moral certainty is compromised by rational cognition. In this paper, the authors assume that some people use a morality-first perspective and others a rationality-first perspective. Ethical scenarios were written and used to test hypotheses derived from this perspective. The instrument developed was shown to be in need of further refinement. Results are discussed in terms of relationships between participant-characteristics variables overall and subscale responses to the ethical scenarios.