The take-up of means-tested income support

Many studies have identified that eligible claimants do not participate in means-tested income support programs. We examine the determinants of the decision to take-up social assistance in Canada using the 1997 Canadian Out of Employment Panel dataset. Using a conditional maximum likelihood approach to take account of the potential endogeneity of the level of benefits available to potential claimants, we find that benefit levels and recent receipt of Social Assistance (SA) are important determinants of the take-up decision. The results are important for the fiscal implications of changing benefit levels as the take-up rate is systematically related to the benefits potential recipients are entitled to receive. Further, it suggests that stigma and transaction costs associated with program use are important in explaining the take-up decision.     

Evaluating the performance of non-Bayesian regulatory mechanisms

This paper compares the performance of two prominent non-Bayesian regulatory mechanisms: Sappington and Sibley's (1988) Incremental Surplus Subsidy (ISS) and Hagerman's (1990) refinement of the Vogelsang-Finsinger (1979) mechanism. The two mechanisms are shown to induce identical, non-zero levels of abuse—unproductive expenses that benefit the firm—though neither induces pure waste. ISS pareto-dominates the Hagerman mechanism when lump-sum transfers to the firm are non-distortionary, but the Hagerman mechanism generates greater welfare and consumer surplus when the distortionary effects of transfers are large. For a wide range of intermediate parameter values, the quantitative difference in performance between the two mechanisms is surprisingly modest.This paper has benefited from the comments of Keith Crocker, Steve Hackett, John Mayo, David Sibley, Ted Stefos, Lester Taylor, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at the 1992 American Economic Association meetings, the Tenth Annual Eastern Conference of the Rutgers University Center for Research in Regulated Industries, the Pennsylvania State University, GTE Laboratories, and the Management Science Group, Department of Veterans Affairs, Bedford, Massachusetts.     

Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model

Does the search and matching model fit aggregate U.S. labor market data? While the model has become an important tool of macroeconomic analysis, recent literature pointed to some significant failures in accounting for the data. This paper aims to answer two questions: (i) Does the model fit the data, and, if so, on what dimensions? (ii) Does the data “fit” the model, i.e. what are the data which are relevant to be explained by the model?The analysis shows that the model fits certain specifications of the data on many dimensions, though not on all. This includes capturing the high persistence and high volatility of most of the key variables, the negative co-variation of unemployment and vacancies, and the behavior of the worker job finding rate. A key role in this fit is played by the convexity of hiring costs and the stochastic properties of the separation rate. The latter is a major component of the rate discounting the future value of the job-worker match.The paper offers a workable, empirically grounded version of the model for the analysis of aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics.     

State enterprise performance and soft budget constraints: The case of Bulgaria

This paper analyses the performance of state enterprises in Bulgaria during 1992-94. Consistent with the literature on other transitional economies, this paper finds that one key factor underlying (the lack of) enterprise adjustment in Bulgaria during this period was the availability of financing. Empirically, the (lack of) past adjustment and the softness of finance are the best predictors of current adjustment. Many state enterprises, mostly smaller ones, appear to have adjusted to the new economic structure, partly in response to tighter budget constraints. However, a number of large, hard-core lossmaking state enterprises did not adjust, due primarily to the soft budget constraints that they faced. These enterprises crowded out profitable enterprises, both public and private, through their large financing requirements, adversely affecting economic growth. Moreover, continued bank financing of these large loss-makers decapitalized the banking system, and budgetary financing of their losses, largely through tax arrears, has undermined fiscal policy. This lack of enterprise adjustment and the resulting financial indiscipline lies at the core of the macroeconomic difficulties that Bulgaria has recently faced.     

Policy and performance in customs: Evaluating the trade facilitation agreement

This paper links cross‐country variation in trade facilitation policies to prominent indicators of national customs and logistics performance. We test the hypotheses that the policy data explain variation in the performance indicators, independent of other country characteristics that are plausibly exogenous to changes in trade facilitation policies. We use a LASSO procedure to choose among the many potential explanatory variables in the model. In general we find that country characteristics related to geography, income, and the general quality of governance better explain cross‐country variation in customs and logistics performance than do the measures of trade facilitation policy.     

The transition crisis in Bulgaria

In 1996-97, while making its way through a difficult processof economic and political transformations, Bulgaria was hitby a severe economic crisis. This paper seeks to reveal andanalyse the underlying factors and causes of this crisis. Itfocuses on empirical issues but also highlights some basic causalitiesand interrelations between economic variables during the crisisas well as the role of economic policy. The economic turmoilin Bulgaria is addressed from three different perspectives:(1) the historic roots of the crisis; (2) the actual evolutionof the fiscal, banking and currency crises, and (3) the politicaleconomy of the transition in Bulgaria.     

Land Restitution in Post-Communist Bulgaria

While international scholarship has generally been laudatory of Bulgaria's land restitution efforts, painting them as part of an overall success story and yet another example of the country's sharp break with communism, a real analysis of Bulgaria's so-called 'success story', particularly by the legal community, has been sorely lacking. This author has found that in many ways the approbation Bulgaria has received from the international community for its restitution efforts is more a reflection of the Bulgarian government's willingness to confront the problem than its ability to effectively deal with it. Through the use of documents, court records, and interviews conducted by the author, this article endeavours to document the problems and shortcomings of a system that is considered such a courageous and worthy pursuit that few have been willing to criticize it. Essentially, this paper attempts to answer the question, not of whether Bulgaria's restitution effort was able to do some good, but whether it could have done--and could still do--much better.     

Non-Banking Financial Institutions in Bulgaria

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Intemational Competitiveness of Export-oriented Industries in Bulgaria

With increasing globalization and Bulgaria＇s accession into the European Union （EU）, the question how to improve the country＇s international competitiveness has become very important and urgent. The aim of the paper is to present the results of a research on the past decade＇s competitiveness of Bulgarian export-oriented sectors, enjoying good positions in local and international markets and having a high development potential. The first part of the article presents a comprehensive review of the concept of competitiveness--its definitions, factors, and measurements at national, industry, and firm level. On the basis of the theoretical considerations, an empirical analysis on the current state of competitiveness of the selected export-oriented industries is performed. These include metallurgy, machine building, chemicals, clothing and textiles, furniture, wine production, tobacco, and food processing. The research answers the following questions： What are the major competitive advantages of Bulgarian export-oriented industries on the world market？ What are their disadvantages？ How did they change over the period 2002-2012, and what steps should be taken to meet the challenges？ The employed methods of analysis are both quantitative--calculating various production, trade, and price indices, and qualitative--carrying out a survey among top managers of firms operating in the selected industries across all the regions of the country. Results show that the country＇s competitiveness on international level has gradually improved but still remains at a comparatively low level as Bulgarian producers compete mostly on the price, invest very little in research and development （R＆D）, rely on low labor costs, and produce goods with low added value. The paper looks into the specific challenges to competitiveness faced by different sectors and the implications of addressing them. In conclusion, it puts forward some recommendations for boosting Bulgaria＇s international competitiveness which are aimed at key stakeholders： companies, central and local government, and institutions promoting cooperation.     

Health insurance subsidies and the expansion of an implicit marriage penalty: a regional comparison of various means-tested programmes

Any subsidy provision for healthcare premiums, including those embedded in Affordable Care Act (ACA), has the potential to result in some couples facing an implicit penalty when married relative to unmarried. To illustrate such consequences of means-tested subsidies of health insurance premiums, we construct hypothetical households earning different levels of income who are eligible for current subsidies in the USA. and compare the estimated implicit marriage penalty faced by these households to the one faced by low-income households who are eligible for various means-tested programmes (e.g. TANF, WIC, SNAP) for each of the 48 contiguous states. We find that, like very low-income households, marriage can potentially penalize couples who receive health insurance premium subsidies by decreasing their overall disposable income by as much as 14%. We find that the ACA increases the number of households subject to marriage penalties embedded in means-tested programmes for low-income couples. This distortion will exist for any future health insurance premium subsidies that are means tested at the household income level.     

Evaluating R&D performance of EU countries using categorical DEA

Over the coming decade, Research and Development (R&D) performance will be the key component of bringing innovation and the determinant of global competitiveness of nations. Therefore, this paper presents categorical Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for evaluating R&D performance of European Union (EU) countries. We utilise the output-oriented constant returns to scale (CRS) and variable returns to scale (VRS) DEA models with categorical data, namely, CAT-O-C and CAT-O-V models. In addition to DEA based framework, to examine the relationship between R&D performance and political-regulatory-economic situation of the countries; three research hypotheses are stated and their results are analysed. Policy implications about R&D activities can be derived for EU countries from the findings of this study.     

Ethnic patterns of returns to education in Bulgaria

It is widely accepted that disparities in education contribute to the poor labour market outcomes experienced by ethnic minority groups and consequently to their poverty. In this article, I analyse differential educational benefits in Bulgaria and compare returns to education for the Roma minority with the majority population and the Turkish minority. I show that both ethnic minority groups have lower education levels and employment rates than the majority population and that they also have lower returns to education. This result could be related to minorities' lower education quality as well as to discrimination in the labour market. Integration policies should thus aim to improve employability and labour market competence of vulnerable groups starting from school.     

Evaluating the performance of higher education institutions in Europe: a nonparametric efficiency analysis of 944 institutions

Although a long tradition exists of studying the economics of education, performance comparisons of different kinds have traditionally been difficult to undertake. An important impediment has been the lack of comparable data. To a large extent, this study remedies the shortcomings of earlier studies. Our contribution is twofold. First, the current higher education policy of contraction and economizing, common to most European countries, make knowledge of potential efficiency gains crucial. Second, a unique database allows us to study a broad diversity of organizations as well as organizations located in a number of different European countries. The study suggests evaluating higher education institution (HEI) performance in a production theory context, applying the well-known data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to a cross section of 944 HEIs in 17 European countries. The DEA approach is particularly suitable in this context where little is known about production technologies and economic behaviour of the HEIs. On average, provision of education is found to be most efficient in the Slovak Republic followed by Belgium and Latvia, while Denmark and Norway display the lowest efficiency. The study also indicates a positive relation between efficiency and HEI size and efficiency and research intensity. Furthermore, the study points to the importance of continued data collection.     

EU accession and foreign-owned firms in Bulgaria

Bulgaria signed the European Union accession treaty in 2005. Accession caused an increase in the volume of inward foreign direct investment flows (IFDI). We analyse World Bank BEEPS firm-level data for 2007 to understand the characteristics and performance of foreign firms in Bulgaria. Regression analysis reveals that foreign firms are larger, have lower capital-to-labour ratios, are more likely to export and are more likely to locate in Sofia. However, foreign firms have had limited success in Bulgaria. They do not exhibit higher sales growth and, in manufacturing, carried out lower capital investment in machinery than domestic firms. The numbers of visits from tax officials is the same for domestic and foreign firms in manufacturing, and lower for foreign firms in the service sector. However, firms with higher exports-to-sales ratios and higher absolute sales were subjected to a higher number of visits from tax officials. These findings suggest that a range of institutional challenges remain for foreign firms in Bulgaria.     

Evaluating the performance of a predictive modeling approach to identifying members at high-risk of hospitalization

Abstract

Aims: To evaluate the risk-of-hospitalization (ROH) models developed at Blue Cross Blue Shield of Louisiana (BCBSLA) and compare this approach to the DxCG risk-score algorithms utilized by many health plans.

Materials and Methods: Time zero for this study was December 31, 2016. BCBSLA members were eligible for study inclusion if they were fully insured; aged 80?years or younger; and had continuous enrollment starting on or before June 1, 2016, through time zero. Up to 2?years of historical claims data from time zero per patient was included for model development. Members were excluded if they had cancer, renal failure, or were admitted for hospice. The Blue Cross ROH models were developed using (1) regularized logistic regression and (2) random decision forests (a tree ensemble learning classification method). All models were generated using Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python. Prognostic capabilities of DxCG risk-score algorithms were compared to those of the Blue Cross models.

Results: When stratifying by the top 0.1% of members with the highest ROH, the Blue Cross logistic regression model had the highest area under the receiving operator characteristics curve (0.862) based on the result of 10-fold cross-validation. The Blue Cross random decision forests model had the highest positive predictive value (49.0%) and positive likelihood ratio (61.4), but sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values, and negative likelihood ratios were similar across all four models.

Limitations: The Blue Cross ROH models were developed and evaluated using BCBSLA data, and predictive power may fluctuate if applied to other databases.

Conclusions: The predictability of the Blue Cross models show how member-specific, regional data can be used to accurately identify patients with a high ROH, which may allow healthcare workers to intervene earlier and subsequently reduce the healthcare burden for patients and providers.     

Compliance and multidimensional firm performance: Evaluating the efficacy of rule-based code of corporate governance

This study seeks to evaluate the efficacy of the Pakistani Code of Corporate Governance by finding out its impact on firm's performance and efficiency. This exploration is done in the context that Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan's choice of corporate governance regulations is heavily influenced by Anglo-Saxon approach, whereas de-facto realities of Pakistani corporate environment are quite in contrast.Using a panel data of 119 firms for the period of 8 years i.e. 2003 to 2010, and using a multidimensional performance framework i.e. financial performance and technical efficiency, we find that the extent of compliance has increased since the issuance of code in 2002. After controlling for firm size, growth, dividend payout, age and leverage, we find significant positive impact of compliance on firm's performance (ROA, ROE and ROCE). We also find a weak positive relationship between compliance and technical efficiency. We suggest that compliance is not linearly related with financial performance and we find that high compliant firms are less profitable than average or low compliant firms. This implies that one-size-fit all approach along with mandatory compliance is a questionable approach for Pakistani firms.This study is first in Pakistan in providing empirical evidence on efficacy of the rule-based Code of Corporate Governance and also adds to growing but underdeveloped literature on compliance and firm performance in emerging/developing economies. Further, this study offers insight to policy makers on the efficacy of current corporate governance regulations and offers a research framework for assessing the extent of compliance, effectiveness and economic impact of code of corporate governance.     

Absorptive capacity and firm performance: an integrative framework of benefits and downsides

Research underscores the important role a firm's absorptive capacity plays in developing knowledge, promoting open innovation, managing alliances, facilitating organisational learning, creating strategic variety, and enhancing financial performance. However, prior research often overlooks how absorptive capacity could increase a firm's costs associated with building this capacity, perpetuate and even increase inertia because of reduced variety and limited organisational search, handicap internal knowledge development, and complicate knowledge sharing. Research also ignores the growing complexity of absorptive capacity, a factor that could reduce a firm's gains from exploiting external knowledge. Our discussion builds on the knowledge-based view to provide an integrative framework for the performance effects of absorptive capacity. Based on different benefits and downsides of absorptive capacity at multiple levels of analysis, it points to an inverted U-shaped relationship between absorptive capacity and a firm's financial performance, highlighting several promising avenues for future research.     

Evaluating the productive performance of UK universities as cost-constrained revenue maximizers: an empirical analysis

The study presents an empirical analysis of the relative revenue efficiency of UK universities in providing teaching and research. With government policies pressurizing the largely public-funded universities to secure efficiency in both input usage and output revenue, university producers are modelled as cost-constrained revenue maximizers. Taking explicit account of the quality of research output, the methodology uses linear programming techniques to construct nonparametric cost indirect production frontiers and to compute revenue efficiency relative to these frontiers. Revenue efficiency is then decomposed into its (output) allocative and technical components. Further analysis investigates the sources of allocative and technical inefficiencies.