The geography of natural resources,ethnic inequality and civil conflicts

We study whether the spatial distribution of natural resources across different ethnic groups within countries causes spatial inequality and the incidence of armed conflict. By providing a theoretical rent-seeking model and analysing a set of geo-coded data for mines, night-time light emissions, local populations and ethnic homelands, we show that the spatial distribution of resources is a major driving factor of ethnic income inequality. Moreover, a spatially unequal distribution of natural resources induces rent-seeking behaviour and thus increases the risk of civil conflicts. Consequently, we extend the perspective of the resource curse to explain cross-country differences in income inequality and the onset of civil conflicts.     

Religious polarization,religious conflicts and individual financial satisfaction: Evidence from India

The extant literature finds religion to be a major determinant of life satisfaction. However, in contexts characterized by religious tensions, the outcome may be very different. In particular, the literature shows that religious polarization has a major influence on some economic outcomes. The analysis presented in the paper tries to identify the impact of religious polarization on a major component of life satisfaction: financial satisfaction. The paper inquires how belonging to a minority religion and living in areas with different levels of religious polarization affect the individual satisfaction with the financial situation of the household. The results show that the members of minority religious groups are less satisfied than the members of the dominant group, and that the financial satisfaction decreases—for a given income—as the religious polarization increases.     

The long-term effects of job search requirements: Evidence from the UK JSA reform

This paper investigates long-term returns from unemployment compensation, exploiting variation from the UK JSA reform of 1996, which implied a major increase in job search requirements for eligibility and in the related administrative hurdle. Search theory predicts that such changes should raise the proportion of nonclaimant nonemployed, with consequences on search effort and labor market attachment, and lower the reservation wage of the unemployed, with negative effects on post-unemployment wages. I test these ideas on longitudinal data from social security records (LLMDB). Using a difference in differences approach, I find that individuals who start an unemployment spell soon after JSA introduction, as opposed to 6 months earlier, are 2.5–3% more likely to move from unemployment into Incapacity Benefits spells, and 4–5% less likely to have positive earnings in the following year. This latter employment effect only vanishes 4 years after the initial unemployment shock. Also, annual earnings for the treated individuals are lower than for the non-treated. These results suggest that while tighter search requirements were successful in moving individuals off unemployment benefits, they were not successful in moving them onto stable or better jobs, with fairly long-lasting unintended consequences on a number of labor market outcomes.     

The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala

We combine data from the 2002 National Population Census and the distribution of the number of human rights violations and victims across 22 departments to examine how Guatemala's 36-year-long civil war affected human capital accumulation. The year of birth and the department of birth jointly determine an individual's exposure during school age to three different periods of the civil war, namely the initial period (1960-1978), the worst period (1979-1984), and the final period (1985-1996). We find a strong negative impact of the civil war on the education of the two most disadvantaged groups, namely rural Mayan males and females. Among rural Mayan males, those who were school age during the three periods of the civil war in departments where more human rights violations were committed completed 0.27, 0.71, and 1.09 years less of schooling respectively whereas rural Mayan females exposed to the three periods of the war completed 0.12, 0.47, and 1.17 years less of schooling respectively. Given an average of 4.66 and 3.83 years of schooling for males and females, these represent declines of 6, 15, and 23% for males and 3, 12, and 30% for females. Our results are robust to the inclusion of indicators for department of residence, year of birth, and controls for different trends in education and human development in war-affected and peaceful departments of Guatemala and suggest that the country's civil war may have deepened gender, regional, sectoral, and ethnic disparities in schooling.     

Working conditions and factory survival: Evidence from better factories Cambodia

A large and growing literature has identified several conditions, including exporting, that contribute to plant survival. A prevailing sentiment suggests that anti‐sweatshop activity against plants in developing countries adds to the risk of closure, making survival more difficult by imposing external constraints that may interfere with optimizing behavior. Using a relatively new plant‐level panel data set from Cambodia, this paper applies survival analysis to estimate the relationship between changes in working conditions and plant closure. The results find little, if any, evidence that improving working conditions increases the probability of closure. In fact, some evidence suggests that improvements in standards relating to compensation are positively correlated with the probability of plant survival.     

The signaling effects of education in the online lending market: Evidence from China

In this study, we use data from an online lending platform named Xinxindai in China to empirically study the signaling effects of education for the default risk of borrowers. Three dependent variables are created, namely, the probability of default, overdue payments and overdue amount, and probit models, count models and Tobit models are employed correspondingly. The number of universities in the “211 Project” of China at the city level is employed as the instrumental variable. The empirical evidence shows that education generally plays a strong signaling role in the identification of borrowers’ default risk in China. The negative marginal effect of education declines as borrowing times increase and as the marketization of regions deepens. This study helps to fill an important gap in the existing literature. Platforms and lenders can use educational level for reference in identifying the default risk of borrowers.     

This water is all ours: Water demand and civil conflicts

This article provides the first assessment of the relationship between competition over water resources and water-related civil conflicts within countries. Pressure on water resources is a major concern and source of conflict. In recent decades, this pressure has been increasing due to rising water demand. This study examines the effect of three indicators of water demand that are likely to affect the occurrence of water-related civil conflicts: population density, international trade, and income per capita. We rely on a linear probability model with fixed-effects on a sample of 144 countries between 1961 and 2018. The results reveal that, among the three factors, demographic pressure is the only positive and robust determinant of the occurrence of water disputes. Furthermore, while pressure on water resources appears to be a relevant channel mediating population density's effect on the probability of water conflicts, this density effect is mitigated when populations' access to water resources for domestic consumption increases. Finally, it appears that population density is particularly relevant in explaining conflicts where the main issue is the access or control of water resources and where water is used as a weapon.     

The impact of rural electrification on income and education: Evidence from Bhutan

We investigate the impact of a rural electrification program on household income and children's schooling in rural Bhutan. Using propensity score matching, we find that electrification had a statistically significant impact on nonfarm income and education. Nonfarm income increased by 61 percent and children gained 0.72 additional years of schooling and 9 minutes of study time per day. We do not observe significant effects on farm income. Results are consistent and robust to different matching algorithms. Our findings indicate that investments in reducing energy deficit may help improve human welfare in Bhutan.     

The risk of civil conflicts as a determinant of political institutions

This paper proposes a mechanism to explain differences in political institutions based on a particular feature of civil conflicts that has not been previously explored. Under asymmetric and uncertain costs of civil conflicts members of the elite would like to commit in advance to a strong response to insurgencies, but ex-post they have the incentives to block any response if the conflict mainly affects other members of the elite. One way of solving this commitment problem is empowering the executive so he may react forcefully to conflicts, despite the opposition of some fraction of the elite. The main prediction is that, conditional on asymmetric and uncertain costs, the higher is the likelihood of a conflict in the future, the lower are the constraints imposed on the executive. The paper validates this implication using a sample of former colonies and geographic variables to identify the exogenous component of the likelihood of conflicts.     

The trade-off between fertility and education: evidence from before the demographic transition

The trade-off between child quantity and quality is a crucial ingredient of unified growth models that explain the transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. We present first evidence that such a trade-off indeed existed already in the nineteenth century, exploiting a unique census-based dataset of 334 Prussian counties in 1849. Furthermore, we find that causation between fertility and education runs both ways, based on separate instrumental-variable models that instrument fertility by sex ratios and education by landownership inequality and distance to Wittenberg. Education in 1849 also predicts the fertility transition in 1880–1905.     

Financial development,political rights,civil liberties and economic growth: Evidence from South Asia

A number of existing studies have examined the theoretical link between financial development and economic growth. Kose et al. (2010), among others, have argued that financial development can affect the extent of the benefits from foreign direct investment. Other studies, such as Huang (2010) have suggested that the quality of political institutions can also affect the level of financial development. This implies that the extent of the benefits from financial development also depend on the quality of governance. However, few empirical studies have considered these issues. By making use of panel data over the period 1970 to 2009, this paper focuses on the impact of the interaction of (i) financial development and foreign direct investment and (ii) financial development and the quality of governance on economic growth in South Asia. Our empirical analysis, suggests that financial development has contributed to an increase in the benefits of FDI in South Asia. In addition, improvement in political rights and civil liberties has also enhanced the benefits of financial development in South Asia.     

Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war

We investigate the relationship between exposure to the Burundi Civil War and household (food) poverty, using a three-wave household-level panel matched with data on local-level violence. We find that households living in localities exposed to the war have been subsequently more likely to be poor than non-exposed households. Within-household estimations, controlling for time-varying heterogeneity at the province level, confirm the positive impact of violence exposure on household poverty. We investigate some of the potential mechanisms at play in the violence – poverty nexus, and the role of violence exposure in household poverty dynamics over time. Our results notably suggest that the destruction of physical capital, as well as a shift of exposed households out of non-farm activities, shape poverty dynamics and lower their chances of durably remaining out of poverty.     

Household formation rules,fertility and female labour supply: Evidence from post-communist countries

This paper explains how household formation rules affect the fertility and labour supply of women in the Former Soviet Union and neighbouring countries. Women who bear a male first child in countries dominated by traditional, patrilocal households are shown to have substantially lower subsequent fertility from those whose first child is female. Where households are generally nuclear, male first borns do not reduce subsequent fertility. Middle-aged women in more patrilocal contexts often work less if their first child is male, despite reduced fertility and being more likely to reside with a daughter-in-law. In more nuclear contexts, they tend to work more. These findings suggest that household formation rules are strongly related both to women’s demand for sons and to the direction of intergenerational transfers.     

The intergenerational transmission of education: Evidence from Taiwanese adoptions

This paper examines the causal effect of parental schooling on children’s schooling using a large sample of adoptees from Taiwan. Using birth-parents’ education to help control for selective placement of children with adoptive parents, we find that adoptees raised with more highly educated parents have higher educational attainment, measured by years of schooling and probability of university graduation. We also find evidence that adoptive father’s schooling is more important for sons’ and adoptive mother’s schooling is more important for daughters’ educational attainment. These results support the notion that family environment (nurture) is important in determining children’s educational outcomes, independent of genetic endowment.     

Understanding modes of civil case disposition: Evidence from Slovenian courts

We contribute to the scant empirical literature on the functioning of courts in the post-socialist world by analyzing civil case disposition in Slovenia. We first characterize basic empirical patterns in modes of civil case disposition in Slovenian local courts. We then examine court-level determinants of the incidence of in-court settlements versus trial-based judgments. Consistent with the theory that both judges and disputing parties take into account their respective private benefits and costs when choosing their preferred mode of case disposition, we find evidence that the incidence of in-court settlements versus trial-based judgments increases with the number of all case filings per judge. Thus, court resources and demand for court services influence not only total court output, as previously established in the literature, but also how cases are disposed of.     

Quality of higher education and earnings: evidence from Finland using field-of-study-level quality measures

Using administrative data from Finland, this paper empirically examines the relationship between university graduates’ early career earnings and three measures of university quality: the number of teachers per student, the number of publications per researcher and the number of applicants per admitted student. A distinction to previous studies is made by paying special attention to field-of-study heterogeneity: the quality measures are allowed to vary by a student’s field, while the heterogeneity of earnings and individuals across fields is accounted for in the analysis. For the most part, the results indicate that the relationship between institution quality and earnings is rather weak; however, certain significant quality effects are also found. In particular, the teachers/student ratio is found to be positively associated with the earnings of women and graduates from the humanities. Overall, the results indicate considerable heterogeneity in quality effects across genders and fields.     

Parental education and wages: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the relationship between parents’ education and children’s wage using two nationally representative data sets in China. Controlling for other things, both father’s and mother’s education are positively correlated with children’s wage. Nevertheless, returns to father’s education are lower in more market-oriented segments of the economy, including coastal regions, the non-state sector, and the later period of the reform era (post-1992), while the opposite is true for mother’s education. We argue that this new empirical evidence is consistent with the story that father’s education mainly indicates family connections useful for locating a better-paying first job, while mother’s education primarily captures unmeasured ability.     

Suicide mortality,long-term unemployment,and labor-market policies: Evidence from European countries

Using data from 25 EU countries spanning the period 1999–2017, this paper examines the relationship between working-age suicides and changes in long-term unemployment and tests for mitigating effects through the implementation of labor-market policies. The estimates suggest higher suicide risks following a rising rate of long-term unemployment. Passive support policies have a suicide-decreasing impact. Among active policies, a significant suicide-decreasing effect is found for training and direct job creation. The results have important policy implications in that they suggest that strong commitment of governments to passive or to certain types of active labor-market policies can, on average, contribute to social stability and the welfare of populations.     

Sectoral FTA gains,conflicts, and the role of interindustry factor mobility: Evidence from Korea's free trade agreement

Free trade agreements (FTAs) can ignite domestic conflicts between export- and import-competing industries over trade gains. However, if the factors of production, such as capital and labour, move freely across industries, the returns to factor owners will quickly converge. Then, sectoral conflicts over FTAs will be less likely to arise. We analyse the case of South Korea's FTAs to measure (a) sectoral FTA gains and (b) interindustry factor mobility and to examine (c) the role of interindustry factor mobility in mitigating sectoral conflicts over trade policies. South Korea is an ideal case study due to the low barriers to domestic geographic mobility and high trade dependence. Based on data on its trade with 252 countries and factor returns between 2002 and 2017, we find that export industries did not gain much from the FTAs, while the import-competing agricultural sector was the winner. Sectoral conflicts greatly decreased over 2008–2010. Interindustry capital mobility plays a significant role in weakening the sectoral conflicts, while the impact of interindustry labour mobility is limited.     

The effects of economic reforms on manufacturing dualism: Evidence from India

Dualism is a pervasive feature of the manufacturing sectors of less-developed countries, with large differences in productivity between the informal and the formal sectors. Policy distortions are viewed as an important factor behind the prevalence of manufacturing dualism. We examine whether tariff reforms, industrial de-licensing and the withdrawal of reservation of products for small firms implemented since the mid-1980s have had any effects on efficiency differentials between informal and formal firms in Indian manufacturing. We find strong evidence that economic reforms have exacerbated dualism by increasing the productivity differentials between the more efficient formal firms and the less efficient informal firms.