Too much for retirement? Saving in Italy

We use Italian repeated cross-sectional data from 1984 to 1998 to highlight trends in Italian household saving. The use of repeated cross sections allows us to control for the presence of cohort effects, which are important determinants of the level of saving. The data are drawn from the Bank of Italy Survey of Income and Wealth. The reliability of the saving measure is assessed also using data from the ISTAT Survey of Household Budgets. The purpose of the paper is to provide a set of stylized facts about household saving in Italy. At a more general level, the paper also highlights the importance of distinguishing between discretionary saving and mandatory saving when analysing household behaviour and comparing saving across countries.     

Disease or utopia? Testing Baumol in education

Baumol’s Cost Disease offers a compelling hypothesis of rising unit costs in stagnant sectors, but increased productivity in progressive sectors may generate the same prediction through income effects. We examine quantity (rather than expenditure) data from the U.S. educational sector to distinguish between these explanations. Our results indicate significant negative impacts of manufacturing productivity on teacher–pupil ratios.     

Capstone or deadweight? Inefficiency, duplication and inequity in South Africa's tertiary education system, 1910-93

This paper presents time series on South African tertiary education.The data series presented cover inputs and outputs for the university,technical training and teacher training systems. Modern growththeory has emphasised the importance of human capital, thoughempirical studies have attempted to isolate human capital impactsthrough single aggregate measures that capture only a quantityof human capital dimension. While data analysis in the presentstudy is exploratory in nature, we show that strong qualitydifferentials exist both within and between different partsof the tertiary education system. The methodological implicationfor growth studies is that fully accounting for both the quantityand quality of human capital in aggregate human capital measuresthus faces significant measurement difficulties. The data alsoestablish that discrimination in the South African tertiaryeducation was not simply a question of underresourcing of Blackinstitutions. Quality of output was low, but attaining it wasfrequently very expensive.     

Land conversion pace under uncertainty and irreversibility: too fast or too slow?

In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate land conversion decisions taken by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce habitat conservation. We show that land conversion can be delayed by paying landholders for the provision of environmental services and by limiting the individual extent of developable land. It is found, instead, that the presence of ceilings on aggregate conversion may lead to runs which rapidly exhaust the targeted amount of land. We study the impact of uncertainty on the optimal conversion policy and discuss conversion dynamics under different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Interestingly, we show that uncertainty, even if it induces conversion postponement in the short-run, increases the average rate of deforestation and reduces expected time for total conversion in the long run. Finally, we illustrate our findings through some numerical simulations.     

Policies to stimulate growth: should we invest in health or education?

Empirical studies in the literature on economic growth have focused on the affect of education and yet Knowles and Owen (1995, 1997) found health, proxied by life expectancy, to be highly statistically significant with education having a modest role. This study extends their model and employs variables that are more conducive to policy formulation: calorific intake and school enrolment ratios. Results suggest that reducing undernutrition would only make a modest contribution to economic growth while increasing enrolment ratios, especially secondary, has a positive and more significant effect. Policies to increase economic growth should favour investments in education over health.     

Educational qualifications mismatch in Europe. Is it demand or supply driven?

Most papers dealing with individual overeducation risks focus on labour supply characteristics and workers’ behaviour. On the other hand, only few studies consider labour demand characteristics and technological change. In this paper we analyse the influence of both demand and supply factors on educational mismatch in a set of 10 European countries. Our hypothesis, confirmed by results obtained using ordered probit model with sample selection, is that demand factors generally play a major role in reducing educational mismatch in technologically more advanced countries, whereas supply factors are more important in countries that are lagging behind in the international division of labour. At the same time, important cross-country and gender differences have been identified in how the demand/supply factors operate. All this calls for the fine-tuning of policies intended to tackle the problem of educational mismatch.     

Does the availability of high-wage jobs for low-skilled men affect welfare expenditures? Evidence from shocks to the steel and coal industries

We study shocks to the coal and steel industries to measure the effect of long-term changes in demand for low-skilled workers on welfare expenditures. The coal and steel industries have historically paid high wages to low-skilled men. We find a substantial increase in welfare expenditures in response to the collapse of the steel and coal industries in the 1980s, and an even more substantial reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom of the 1970s. Additional analysis indicates the reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom is due in part to a decline in single-parent households.     

Is wealth found in the soil or in the brain? Investing in farm people in Malawi

Should a typical developing country invest more in agriculture or education? At what stage of development is it optimal to invest more in each of these sectors? These are important questions that governments of developing countries grapple with when designing investment plans. In this paper, I propose a soil–human capital conceptual framework of development and use it to explain estimates of agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi. I use panel survey data for Malawi and rely on the exogenous education policy changes and spatial variation in access to schooling to identify effects of schooling on agricultural incomes. In addition, I correct for selection into income activities within a panel data and instrumental variables estimation framework. I find annual agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi of 3%–4% after correcting for selection and unobserved heterogeneity and 7% in the uncorrected specifications. I also find consistently higher returns to schooling in the nonagricultural sector for those not living in the village of birth and higher returns in the agricultural sector for those living in the village of birth. Given the size of the farm sector, wealth in Malawi is still in the soil, but that future growth in wealth depends on human capital investments.     

Job satisfaction and disability: lower expectations about jobs or a matter of health?

This article focuses on the analysis of the reported differentials of job satisfaction for disabled and non-disabled individuals. Using the Spanish data of the European Community Household Panel during the period 1995–2001, we estimate a job satisfaction equation for each group and evaluate job satisfaction differentials through the Oaxaca-Blinder methodology. The results show that disabled individuals are more likely to be more satisfied in their jobs than non-disabled ones, but only after controlling for other variables. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows the greater importance of the returns in job satisfaction for disabled people, which is supported by explanations based on the lower expectations about jobs of disadvantaged groups.      

Hysteresis in unemployment: Fact or fiction?

A stylized fact of European unemployment dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior. This has led to a major reconsideration of the natural rate paradigm. We apply the Kalman filter to estimate the natural rate of unemployment for Germany and France. When the moving natural rate model is tested against the alternative of a unit root process, the unit root hypothesis is resoundingly rejected.     

Anti-corruption campaign in China: good news or bad news for firm value?

This article investigates the effects of an anti-corruption campaign on firm value by testing market reactions to the investigation of top local officials during the recent anti-corruption campaign in China. We find that the anti-corruption events are more likely to be bad news for the market values of local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) but good news for the market values of non-SOEs less dependent on political connections. Besides, anti-corruption events are also more likely to be bad news for firms in regulated industries or low-marketization regions but good news for firms in nonregulated industries or high-marketization regions.     

Why do people non-demand reveal in hypothetical double referenda for public goods?

Hypothetical contingent valuation surveys used to elicit values for environmental and other public goods often employ variants of the referendum mechanism due to the cognitive simplicity and familiarity of respondents with this voting format. One variant, the double referendum mechanism, requires respondents to state twice how they would vote for a given policy proposal given their cost of the good. Data from these surveys often exhibit anomalies inconsistent with standard economic models of consumer preferences. There are a number of published explanations for these anomalies, mostly focusing on problems with the second vote. This article investigates which aspects of the hypothetical task affect the degree of nondemand revelation and takes an individual-based approach to identifying people most likely to non-demand reveal. A clear profile emerges from our model of a person who faces a negative surplus i.e. a net loss in the second vote and invokes non self-interested, non financial motivations during the decision process.     

Informal employment relationships and the labor market: Is there segmentation in Ukraine?

One of the most important factors that determine individuals’ quality of life and wellbeing is their position in the labor market and the type of jobs that they hold. When workers are rationed out of the formal segment of the labor market against their will, i.e., the labor market is segmented, their quality of life is limited, and their wellbeing is reduced. When they can freely choose between a formal or informal employment relationship, i.e., the labor market is integrated, their wellbeing can reach high levels even in the presence of informal employment. We, therefore, test whether the Ukrainian labor market is segmented along the formal-informal divide, slicing the data by gender and age. The analysis that we perform consist in the analysis of short-term and medium-term transitions between five employment states, unemployment and inactivity. We also analyze wage gaps of mean hourly earnings and across the entire hourly earnings distribution, controlling for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. According to our results segmentation is present for dependent employees: for a large part of informal employees informal employment is used as a waiting stage to enter formal salaried employment and is not voluntarily chosen. As far as self-employment is concerned the evidence is mixed regarding segmentation in the Ukrainian labor market. This heterogeneity in outcomes implies that not all informal work is associated with a low quality of life and reduced wellbeing in post-transition economies.     

Equilibrium selection in signaling games with teams: Forward induction or faster adaptive learning?

Teams are shown to violate the most basic of equilibrium refinements in signaling games: single-round deletion of dominated strategies (part of the Cho–Kreps intuitive criteria). This is important because, to the extent that teams can be easily induced to violate the most basic of equilibrium refinements even under a “best case” scenario (teams that rapidly develop strategic play in games of this sort), it implies that one must rely on learning models, and past empirical research with these models, when predicting equilibrium outcomes.     

Individual preferences for public education spending: Does personal income matter?

Standard redistributive arguments suggest that the impact of household income on preferences for public education spending should be negative, because wealthier families are likely to oppose the redistributive effect of public funding. However, the empirical evidence does not confirm this prediction. This paper addresses this ‘puzzle’ by focusing on the role of the inclusiveness of the education system and the allocation of public spending between tiers of education in shaping the impact of income on preferences. By using data from the International Social Survey Programme (2006), we show that, when access to higher levels of education is restricted (low inclusiveness) and when the share of public spending on tertiary education is high, the poor are less likely to support public education spending. This result suggests that reforming the education system towards greater inclusiveness might contribute to increase political backing for public investment in education from the relatively poor majority of the population.     

Paying informally for public health care in Albania: scarce resources or governance failure?

Informal payments for health care are common in most former communist countries. This article explores the demand side of these payments in Albania. Using tobit and Heckman selection models we control for individual determinants of informal payments in outpatient and inpatient health care. Propensity score matching (PSM) techniques are used to investigate the changes in the characteristics of people paying informally over the different years. Our findings suggest that vulnerable groups in society remain less protected against such payments and policy measures have not reached the most deprived regions of the country.     

International fragmentation: Boon or bane for domestic employment?

In this paper, we introduce the fairness approach to efficiency wages into a standard model of international fragmentation. This gives us a theoretical framework in which wage inequality and unemployment rates are co-determined and therefore the public concern can be addressed that international fragmentation and outsourcing to low wage countries lead to domestic job-losses. We develop a novel diagrammatic tool to illustrate the main labour market effects of international fragmentation. We also explore how preferences for fair wages and the size of unemployment benefits govern the employment effects of outsourcing and critically assess the role of political intervention that aims to reduce unemployment benefits under internationally fragmented production.     

Higher education enrolment in Bangladesh: does the wage premium matter?

This paper empirically examines the decisions of individuals to enrol in a course of tertiary education in Bangladesh, focussing on the period 1999 to 2009. Of particular interest is whether the wage premium―the gap in wage earnings between tertiary and secondary school graduates―is associated with decisions to enrol in tertiary education. The analytical framework used here is the human capital theory, which is tested through a discrete choice model. Using data from Bangladesh Labour Force Surveys, empirical results suggest that the wage premium is positively associated with decisions of males to enrol in tertiary education, while for females there appears to be no such association. A battery of robustness tests supports our results.