EX ANTE INVESTMENT,EX POST REMEDIES,AND PRODUCT LIABILITY*

A firm can increase product safety through ex ante investment and can remedy quality problems after sales. An increase in product liability raises returns to ex ante investment through higher consumer demand, but may also negatively affect the investment incentive due to more ex post remedial activities. The trade‐off between these “output” and “substitution” effects can result in an inverted U‐shaped relationship between product liability and ex ante investment. We find that the firm prefers full liability, but consumer surplus can be higher under partial liability. We further identify conditions under which full liability or partial liability is socially optimal.     

ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY AND "PRUDENCE" ANALYSIS OF POWER PLANT INVESTMENT

The various deregulation proposals for the electric utility sector rely on market forces to provide incentives. Even within the traditional regulatory framework, using market behavior instead of regulators' views as a criterion for regulatory decisions is part of the spectrum of deregulation proposals. This paper proposes such an implicit deregulation of rate base decisions. It presents an efficiency standard with which public utility commissions (PUCs) should conduct their "prudence" analyses of power plant construction costs. Prudence reviews, as typically conducted by PUCs, are likely to change the risk structure in regulated sectors so as to make both ratepayers and shareholders worse off. Moreover, the correct perspective for such analyses is ex ante rather than ex post. This means that the expected costs and benefits of alternative actions are the correct parameters for evaluating prudence, and that the interests of ratepayers are consistent only with this economic efficiency approach to prudence analysis. Average industry behavior is the correct standard for implementing the efficient prudence criterion. This paper describes an alternative procedure that PUCs can use to conduct prudence reviews correctly.     

REPLY: THE CONCEPT OF CAPITAL

Edward Denison and I agree that the correct theoretical concept of capital is to consider two capital goods equivalent if they generate the same real net revenue, defined as gross revenue minus variable operating costs measured at a fixed set of output and input prices. Although I showed in my book that the correct concept could be fully implemented for commercial aircraft and electric generating equipment, for other products I was able only partially to take operating costs into account. As a result, both Denison and I agree that my radical revision to the official capital goods deflators does not go far enough and is biased toward understating improvements in quality. Our disagreement comes down to research strategy: I believe that I have progressed partway toward the ultimate goal of implementing the correct concept, while he views such a full implementation as infeasible. As a result, he advocates a return to the traditional criterion of base-period production cost, even though this yields price deflators that ignore improvements in performance (as for computers) and improvements in operating efficiency (as for successive generations of jet aircraft) made possible by technological advances that reduct the cost of production.     

Reproductive health,fairness, and optimal policies

We consider an overlapping generations economy in which agents differ through their ability to procreate. Ex‐ante infertile households may incur health expenditure to increase their chances of parenthood. This health heterogeneity generates welfare inequalities that deserve to be ruled out. We explore three different criteria of social evaluation in the long‐run: the utilitarian approach, the ex‐ante egalitarian criterion and the ex‐post egalitarian one. We propose a set of economic instruments to decentralize each solution. To correct for the externalities and health inequalities, both a preventive (a taxation of capital) and a redistributive policy are required. We show that a more egalitarian allocation is associated with higher productive investment but reduced health expenditure and thus, lower population growth.     

Capital in the Twenty-First Century: Reinterpreting the fundamental contradiction of capitalism

At a theoretical level this article discusses Piketty’s hypothesis that the distribution of income and wealth tends to become more concentrated over time when the rate of return on capital is greater than the growth rate of real output. We develop a post Keynesian model of growth and distribution showing that once capital is differentiated from wealth, the increase in income and wealth concentration actually occurs when the rate of valorization of financial and real estate assets is greater than the growth rate of real output, and that this situation may be triggered by financial liberalization.     

资本要求、“多而不倒” 救助与系统性风险

本文从银行之间资产回报相关性的角度研究系统性风险，通过构建理论模型考察了存在“多而不倒”救助时资本要求对系统性风险的影响，并且以11个国家（地区）2006-2012年的相关数据为样本进行实证检验。研究结果表明，一定条件下“多而不倒”救助是监管者的最优选择，然而当存在这种“事后”最优政策时，资本要求的提高可能会通过影响银行“事前”投资决策的方式扩大银行之间的系统相关性，提高系统性风险隐患。这一效应在金融自由化程度较低的国家表现得更为显著。中国的资本监管改革应注意与金融市场化改革相协调。     

Financial Intermediation and Occupational Choice in Development

This paper presents evidence that the spread between the marginal product of capital and the return on financial assets is much higher in poor than in rich countries. A model with costly intermediation is developed. In this economy, individuals choose at each instant whether to work or to operate a technology. Entrepreneurs finance their business with their own savings and, if necessary, by borrowing from banks. I find that in this framework intermediation costs are not equivalent to a tax on the return of capital. The equivalence fails because costly intermediation affects not only the capital accumulation decision but also the occupational choice decision. I show that intermediation costs have important effects on per capita output and average business size in the economy. I conclude that taxing financial intermediaries can be a very bad policy for development. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E20, E60, O11, O16.     

Deregulation,innovative entry and structural diversity as a source of stable and rapid economic growth

The importance of free innovative entry (deregulation) for diversity of structure and competition is studied. I demonstrate quantitatively that even with a narrow definition of entry (firms), and given observed entry behavior, successful entrants completely dominate the long-run performance characteristics of the economy. Rapid and stable long-run macro economic growth can only be achieved if innovative competitive entry is vigorous. Free access to markets alone is a necessary condition, with competence a sufficient condition. It is probably wrong to believe that the (ex ante) threat of entry is sufficient for dynamic competition. A growing economy requires a steady showering with optimistic entrants, a few of which turn out ex post to be superior performers. Failing and exiting firms are part of the innovation costs to society for steady and rapid economic growth. The benefits of financial innovations like junk bonds are to reduce barriers to competitive entry to make both successes and failures possible.     

THE SENSITIVITY OF CAPITAL SERVICES MEASUREMENT: MEASURE ALL ASSETS AND THE COST OF CAPITAL

The measurement of capital inputs is still a contentious issue: many choices have to be made that have potentially large effects on the resulting capital input series. This paper compares a large number of methodological choices and their impact on U.S. capital services at the industry and aggregate level. The results show that the set of capital assets covered and the choice for the rate of return matter substantially, while other choices are less important. I argue that land, inventories, and intangible capital should be included and that for pragmatic reasons, an external cost of capital is preferable to an internal rate of return because of its transparency and robustness to measurement error.     

Alternative theories of wage dispersion

We analyze labor market models where the law of one price fails—i.e., models with equilibrium wage dispersion. We begin considering ex ante heterogeneous workers, but highlight a problem with this approach: If search is costly the market shuts down. We then assume homogeneous workers but ex post heterogeneous matches. This model is robust to search costs, and delivers equilibrium wage dispersion. However, we prove that the law of two prices holds: Equilibrium implies at most two wages. We explore other models, including one combining ex ante and ex post heterogeneity which is robust and delivers more realistic wage dispersion.     

RETAIL PRICE REGULATION AND THE OPTION TO DELAY

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper examines a two-period model of an investment decision in a network industry characterized by demand uncertainty, economies of scale and sunk costs. In the absence of regulation we identify the market conditions under which a monopolist decides to invest early as well as the underlying overall welfare output. In a regulated environment, we consider a monopolist who faces no downstream (final good) competition but is subject to retail price regulation. We identify the welfare-maximizing regulated prices when the unregulated market outcome is set as the benchmark. We show that if the regulator can commit to ex post regulation – that is, regulated prices that are contingent to future demand realization – then regulated prices that allow the firm to recover its total costs of production are welfare-maximizing. Thus, under ex post price regulation there is no need to compensate the regulated firm for the option to delay that it foregoes when investing today. We argue, however, that regulators cannot make this type of commitment and, therefore, price regulation is often ex ante – that is, regulated prices are not contingent to future demand. We show that the optimal ex ante regulation, and the extent to which regulated prices need to incorporate an option to delay, depend on the nature of demand uncertainty.     

Spot and forward markets for natural gas: The effects of state regulation

Since the emergence of a spot market in natural gas in 1984, state regulators have been concerned that regulated utilities would fail to choose between contracts and spot purchases in a way that minimizes costs. Grounds for this concern are shown, under two alternative rate structures, in a model where regulation produces ex post profit and loss restrictions. Two policy resolutions to the problem are suggested, one that uses an alternative mechanism for triggering rate reviews, allowing the substitution of ex ante for ex post profit and loss restrictions, and one that exploits the special structure of gas markets within the context of traditional regulatory practice.     

Training, search and wage dispersion

This paper combines on-the-job search and human capital theory to study the coexistence of firm-funded general training and frequent job turnovers. Although ex ante identical, firms differ in their training decisions. The model generates correlations between various firm characteristics that are consistent with the data. Wage dispersion exists among ex ante identical workers because workers of the same productivity are paid differently across firms, and because workers differ in their productivity ex post. Endogenous training breaks the perfect correlation between work experience and human capital, which yields new insights on wage dispersion and wage dynamics.     

On the Invariance of the Rate of Return to Convex Adjustment Costs

The modified golden rule, which relates the rate of return on capital and the growth rate of the capital stock along long-run growth paths that maximize the utility of a representative infinitely lived consumer, is invariant to the introduction of convex capital adjustment costs. Therefore, along balanced growth paths in neoclassical optimal growth models with an exogenous long-run growth rate of capital, the rate of return is invariant to the introduction of convex adjustment costs, though the capital–labor ratio is reduced along such paths. In AK models, convex adjustment costs reduce the growth rate and rate of return on capital. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: E2.     

风险偏好的差异性与融资的多样性

我们认为,公众公司(public company)的企业价值不仅依赖于企业家事后的管理行动,而且依赖于企业家的事前努力。为了实现企业价值最大化,不仅需要给予投资者企业的控制权以遏止企业家的机会主义行为,而且还需要激励企业家的事前努力。也就是说,企业价值不仅受到控制权安排的影响,而且离不开一份企业家收益与企业绩效直接挂钩的激励计划。在如此一份激励计划下,投资者的风险偏好差异性不再是无关紧要的,因为一种区分投资者偏好的融资方式可以节约企业的融资成本,使企业有更多的现金流来激励企业家努力工作。本文证明了,多样性的融资方式,即适当比例的债权—股权融资,在一定的条件下是一种最优的融资机制。而且,在企业家拥有一定初始财富的假定下,我们解释了为什么存在各种各样的资本结构。     

Increasing consumer well-being: risk as potential driver of happiness

This article investigates the relation between risk and individual well-being. We propose a theoretical model of happiness that makes a distinction between ex ante evaluations of happiness and ex post assessments. The main assumptions of the model are tested through three studies based on anchoring vignettes. We show that, even if, ex ante, consumers fear high risk and do not associate it to a high level of happiness, their ex post evaluation of well-being is generally higher when identical consequences result from a high-risk situation than from a low-risk situation. Control over risk-taking reinforces the gap between ex ante and ex post measures of happiness. Thus, our article provides empirical evidence about a positive relation between risk and individual well-being, suggesting that risky experiences have the potential to increase consumer well-being.     

The theory of capital utilization and the putty-rubber production function

This paper extends the theory of optimal shift-work to the presumably realistic case in which the ex post elasticity of substitution between labor and capital services is neither zero nor equal to the ex ante elasticity. The paper considers both the CES and the VES as candidates for the ex post function, and gives reasons for preferring the latter. The introduction of ex post substitutability where none existed before is found to increase the profitability of shift-work.     

Physical capital,knowledge capital,and the choice between FDI and outsourcing

Abstract There exist two approaches in the literature concerning the multinational firm’s mode choice for foreign production between an owned subsidiary and a licensing contract. One approach considers environments where the firm transfers primarily knowledge‐based assets and assumes that knowledge is non‐excludable. A more recent approach takes the property‐right view of the firm and assumes that physical capital is fully excludable. This paper combines both forms of capital assets in a single model. There are subtleties, and added structure is needed to establish what ex ante seems a straightforward testable hypothesis: relatively physical‐capital‐intensive firms choose outsourcing while relatively knowledge‐capital‐intensive firms choose FDI.     

Measurement and Allocation of Capital Inputs With Taxes: A Sensitivity Analysis for OECD Countries

Taxes affect the measurement of capital inputs. The paper provides an assessment of these impacts in a cross‐country framework where heterogeneity of corporate taxation across industries and asset types is accounted for. The results show that taxes change the relative prices of capital types, which, in turn, has implications on the estimated capital quality and reallocation effects in the traditional growth accounting framework. Omitting tax parameters is a source of mismeasurement, particularly when the rental price of capital assets is constructed using an external rate of return, leading to biased capital costs and profits rates. It is shown that differential taxation results in a deadweight loss in terms of misallocated capital inputs, predominantly due to composition effects within industries.     

Unequal uncertainties and uncertain inequalities: an axiomatic approach

In this paper, we provide an axiomatic characterization of social welfare functions for uncertain incomes. Our most general result is that a small number of reasonable assumptions regarding welfare orderings under uncertainty rule out pure ex ante as well as pure ex post evaluations. Any social welfare function that satisfies these axioms should lie strictly between the ex ante and the ex post evaluations of income distributions. We also provide an axiomatic characterization of the weighted average of the minimum and the maximum of ex post and ex ante evaluations.