RENAISSANCE OR REQUIEM: IS NUCLEAR ENERGY COST EFFECTIVE IN A POST‐FUKUSHIMA WORLD?

In the aftermath of Fukushima, decisions to slow or stop the future use of nuclear power have not been based on rational economic analysis. We find that there are cost‐effective technologies that would greatly mitigate future natural disasters. Even if the U.S. nuclear industry adopted new safety technologies and paid the full cost of insurance and borrowing, it is more efficient to continue to use existing nuclear plants than to replace them with new fossil fuel plants. However, new nuclear plant costs can exceed fossil fuel alternatives if the price of carbon emissions is below $118/ton. (JEL Q40, Q48, Q54)     

Coal gasification: An economic evaluation

Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.The cost forecasting model is also modified to compare the cost per kilowatt–hour of generated electricity when fueling a 1,000 Mw power plant with oil versus high BTU gas from coal. Again, based upon the costs to private investors, the simulation results indicate a very low probability that high BTU gas from coal would prove the least costly fuel for generating electricity.The implied economic infeasibility for private investment in coal gasification does not necessarily provide a basis for public policy to abandon the technology. Public policy recommendations must consider social costs as well as private costs. Possibly the greatest social cost associated with abandoning coal gasification is the risk of a significant energy supply interruption. A diversified national energy policy including coal gasification may in fact be less costly if relevant social costs are included in the calculations. Results from the cost forecasting model indicate the size and type of public subsidies that may be necessary to support a diversified energy industry which would include coal gasification.     

SOLAR POWER

This paper describes categories of solar technologies and identijies those that are economic. It compares the private costs of power from solar, wind, nuclear, coal, oil, and gas generators. In the southern United States, the private costs of building and generating electricity from new solar and wind power plants are less than the private cost of electricity from a new nuclear power plant. Solar power is more valuable than nuclear power since all solar power is available during peak and mid-peak periods. Half of the power from nuclear generators is off-peak power and therefore is less valuable. Reliability is important in determining the value of wind and nuclear power. Damage from air pollution, when factored into the cost of power from fossil fuels, alters the cost comparison in favor of solar and wind power. Some policies are more effective at encouraging alternative energy technologies that pollute less and improve national security.     

COMPETITIVE LONG RUN INDUSTRY EQUILIBRIUM AND FACTOR-PRICE UNCERTAINTY*

In this paper we have considered competitive long run industry equilibrium with factor-price uncertainty. We discussed the long run equilibrium output of firms with risk neutrality, output price and their responses to changes in uncertainty, factor price and industry demand. In the first part of this paper we have derived a result that, given risk neutrality, the firms operate at proper capacity, i.e. where expected long run marginal cost is equal to expected long run average cost, as shown in the case of output-price uncertainty. This result is, however, different from that obtained from Sheshinski and Dréze (1976). From the comparative static analysis we first discovered that even under risk neutrality factor-price uncertainty affects the long run industry equilibrium: that is, a mean preserving increase in uncertainty leads firm's to enter the industry, because they can decrease expected long run costs as the variability of factor price increases. Consequently, output price goes down. In contrast, firm size is kept invariable in response to its increase as long as the cost function is separable, i.e. the separability of the cost function holds when production functions are the Cobb-Douglas and CES types used commonly in empirical work, although firm size might, generally, be affected by the increase. It is an interesting fact that firm size and industry size will express different responses to a change in risk. The result that the long run industry equilibrium with cost uncertainty is explicitly affected is a sharp contrast to the result under output-price uncertainty and provides a new aspect for understanding about the behaviour of the industry with uncertainty. Secondly, increased factor-price causes the number of firms in the industry to decline and output price to rise. In addition, firm's size will expand with its increase if that factor is inferior, while the effect on firm size is ambiguous if it is normal. The firm's output, i.e. firm size, is, however, kept constant if the cost function is separable. Thirdly, the long run equilibrium output of the firm remains intact but the number of firms increases as industry demand rises. This result holds, regardless of the firm's attitude towards risk. Finally, we find throughout the paper that the functional form of the cost function plays a significant role in determining the behaviour of the industry with factor-price uncertainty.     

THE ETERNITY PROBLEM: NUCLEAR POWER WASTE STORAGE

This paper treats an important problem that has not been treated elsewhere: the relationship between the evolution of the nuclear power industry and the costs of centralized and on-site storage of spent fuel. The conclusion is that centralized storage, as current policy contemplates, would be cheaper given an expanding nuclear industry as projected during the 1970s. But given the current situation of no expansion – i.e., no new orders – the cost advantage of centralized storage disappears. Moreover, if the components of decommissioned reactors are to be stored on site – as seems likely – then perhaps spent fuel should be stored there also.     

Resource Use under Climate Stabilization: Can Nuclear Power Provide Clean Energy?

The long‐term goal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the stabilization of carbon concentration in the atmosphere. In this paper, we impose a carbon target concentration on a partial equilibrium model of the global energy sector. Specifically, we ask whether nuclear power can provide carbon‐free energy as fossil fuel resources become costly due to scarcity and externality costs. We find that nuclear power can reduce the cost of generating clean energy significantly and relatively quickly. However, beyond a few decades the role of nuclear power may be considerably reduced as uranium becomes scarce and renewables become economical. The cost of carbon when nuclear power supplies a significant share of energy is much lower than that of other studies. A policy implication is that current political and regulatory impediments to the expansion of nuclear generation may prove to be costly if large volumes of clean energy need to be supplied over a relatively short period of time.     

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF CUMULATIVE PRIVATE AND EXTERNAL COSTS OF ENERGY

This is a summary comparison and "first rough cut" cumulation of recent estimates regarding private and external costs of energy. The estimates of external costs take into consideration damage to health and property caused by air pollution from coal, oil, and gas; damage caused by acid rain from coal, and costs of reducing acid rain; costs of delaying global warming caused by carbon dioxide from coal, oil, and gas; national security costs of importing oil, and benefits of oil security; national security costs of minimizing damage from terrorist attacks on nuclear power plants; insurance subsidies for nuclear accidents; storage of nuclear waste; loss of nuclear reactors from accidents and safety risks; and benefits from additional nuclear safety requirements. The estimates of private costs focus on nuclear plants, coal, oil, gas, conservation, wind, solar power plants, and geothermal steam.     

不同饲养规模的肉鸡养殖生产成本影响因素分析

怎样控制好生产成本,怎样有效获得较大利润,对肉鸡户养殖和肉鸡产业链发展是一个很重要的问题。因此,本文从不同饲养规模的肉鸡养殖生产成本构成要素角度出发,利用成本影响因素分析方法,计算出不同饲养规模的生产成本构成要素对生产成本影响程度和影响结果。本研究主要结论为:肉鸡养殖的生产成本要素用量对生产成本的影响程度大于要素价格影响程度;肉鸡养殖的生产成本构成要素中,3种规模的精饲料费对肉鸡养殖的生产成本影响程度与结果最大,其次是仔畜进价和人工作价。     

健康的生态经济要求计算核电的全部成本

健康的生态及其经济运作,是人类健康生存和可持续发展的基础。核电的各种间接成本和风险成本,迄今都没有计入核电企业的生产成本,而是由国家、社会乃至全球人类分担了,致使电力行业感到发展核电站比较合算。日本福岛核电站泄漏事故,再一次警告全世界必须全面计算核电的各种成本,进行生态经济比较,决定取舍或合理布局。     

The Entry Cost Shock and the Re‐rating of Power Prices in New South Wales,Australia

Australia has long been the beneficiary of low, stable power prices. A decade‐long state of oversupply underpinned this result and while plant capital costs had been rising, the cost of capital had been declining. These offsetting effects locked the wholesale market into an average cost of $35–$40/MWh. However, from 2007, a simultaneous and sharp rise in new entrant plant capital costs and the cost of capital occurred. The combined effects crept up on the industry while it was in a state of oversupply. This ‘entry cost shock’ disrupted a 7 year long equilibrium price, with average power system cost rising to $60/MWh.     

Relationships and Hybrid Contracts: An Analysis of Contract Choice in Information Technology

Selecting the type of contract is an important aspect of governinginterfirm transactions. The purpose of this article is to examinethe use of fixed-fee and time-and-materials (T&M, or cost-plus)contracts and a hybrid contract that consists of a T&M contractwith a cap. In addition to uncertainty and measurement factors,we also address a relatively unexplored aspect of contracting—howthe prior relationship between the firms influences the typeof contract the firms select. Using data on 394 contracts fromthe information technology (IT) services industry, we show thatT&M contracts are preferred when the cost of measuring qualityex post is high and when it is difficult to estimate costs exante. We also find site-specific measures of relationship leadto a preference for low-powered T&M contracts.     

Electricity supply preferences in Europe: Evidence from subjective well-being data

We use survey data for 139,517 individuals in 25 European countries, 2002–2011, to estimate the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB) and production shares of various electricity generation technologies. The estimated relationships are taken to represent preference relationships over attributes of electricity supply systems (costs, safety, environmental friendliness, etc.). Controlling for a variety of individual and macro-level factors, we find that individuals’ SWB varies systematically and significantly with differences in the electricity mix across countries and across time. Among other results, we find that a greater share of solar & wind power relative to nuclear power and electricity from coal and oil is associated with greater SWB at all levels of income and that the implied preference for solar & wind power over nuclear power has risen drastically after the Fukushima nuclear accident.     

Resisting economic integration when industry location is uncertain

This paper analyses the political determination of transportation costs in a new economic geography model. In a benchmark case with certainty about where agglomeration takes place, a majority of voters favour economic integration and the resulting equilibrium is an industrialised core and a de-industrialised periphery. Allowing for uncertainty, a high level of trade costs may win the election and maintain the initial distribution of industry. The reason is that a coalition of risk-averse immobile factors of production votes for the status quo due to uncertainty about which region will attract industry if economic integration is pursued. Finally, the standard view that agglomeration is unambiguously beneficial to residents in the industrial centre is challenged by introducing costs of undertaking economic integration.     

中美建设工程交易费用影响因素比较——基于中美调研数据

从影响建设工程交易费用的决定性因素入手,构建了建设工程交易费用影响因素假设模型。利用来自中国和美国的调研数据,应用结构方程模型验证了研究假设。结果显示:中国业主行为的不确定性对交易费用有正向影响,且该影响在中国比在美国大;承包商行为的不确定性对建设工程交易费用具有正向影响,且该影响在美国比在中国大;交易环境和机制的不确定性对项目管理效率具有负向影响,且该影响在中国比在美国大;交易环境和机制的不确定性对建设工程交易费用具有负向影响,项目管理效率对建设工程交易费用具有正向影响。     

Privately Owned Railways' Cost Function,Organization Size and Ownership

This paper aims to find the optimal size of an urban private rail organization as well as to evaluate cost difference by ownership. First, after selecting privately owned rail companies, we explore explanatory variables which affect the cost of rail service. Second, keeping in mind previous cost studies of the urban passenger rail industry, we estimate variable cost function with the translog cost function and we construct the total cost function. Third, based on the average cost function, conditions are pinpointed which attain minimum average cost. Finally, based on estimated results, we calculate the size of an urban private rail company and the ownership effects on cost. We conclude that optimal size is about 231 million vehicle-km per year, with a network of 63.8 km length. In terms of total costs, public railways have higher costs than private railways. There is no cost difference, however, in terms of variable costs.     

The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?

While the theory examining the relationship between uncertainty and investment has suggested new research avenues, it has not had strong predictive power. Nevertheless, at the policy level the benefits for investment of a more stable economic climate are being emphasised. These considerations point to the need for empirical work. Accordingly, this paper draws on industry level panel data, obtained by marrying the UK Census of Production with the CBI Industrial Trends Survey, and applies dynamic panel data methods to distinguish between macro and micro sources of uncertainty and to consider the role of financial factors. It is found that both sources of uncertainty exert a considerable negative impact on investment, while financial factors may be important in some industries.     

区域配电网全寿命周期成本优化研究

为了有效控制配电网运营成本和提高效益,针对新一轮电力体制改革的深入改革,区域配电网全寿命周期成本优化已成为一个重要研究方向。本文首先借助系统动力学模型分析了配电网复杂成本构成和筛选了影响成本的关键因子,并采用了改进蒙特卡法对关键影响因子进行混合抽样,得出配电网各关键因子对区域配电网全寿命周期成本影响的综合灵敏度系数;其次,建立了以关键影响因子对配电网全寿命周期成本总影响量最小为目标的成本优化模型,以及提出了GAACS组合算法对模型进行求解;最后,选取了某省的10kV配电网区域进行了实例分析,结果可得,经济条件对配电网成本影响最大,以及技术条件差的区域降低成本能力较大。。     

Investment risk analysis of China's wind power industry based on pre-assessment matrix

Wind energy is a clean and sustainable energy, and wind power does not rely on fossil fuels.So there is no fuel price risk, and it, of course, does not include the environmental costs, such as carbon emissions.Because of these unique advantages, wind power has gradually become an important part of the strategy of sustainable development in China.Now with the growing voices on global greenhouse gas emission reduction, and as a clean and efficient energy,wind power has huge potential in combating climate change, energy security pressures and the needs for energy Wind power in China began to develop from the 1980s.In the first 20 years, the speed of development was slow;but since 2004, it has had an extremely rapid growth.This paper, in order to study the development mechanism of China's wind power industry, investigated and analyzed the status quo of wind power industry in China, and then found that(1)the development trend of wind power industry in China appears exponential growth:(2) China's installed capactiy of wind power is still smaller than that os some other countries;(3) new subsidy policies bring developing opportunities to wind power industry in China;(4) the sectors of wind power industry are in unbalanced growing;(5) the owners of proposed wind farms are too optimistic though the built wind farm had many problems.In addition, by using the methodology of Game Theory, this paper has also constructed the matrix of pre-assessing risks of China's wind power industry to further discuss the potential risk fuctors within China's wind power industry as risk factors of wind farm construction, risk factors of production of wind turbines, risk factors of parts and components manufacturing industry under risk indicators like R&D, patents, the domestic policy, the international policy, the quality of products and the market regulation, in order to provide a scientific assessment and self-assessment tool for investors or implementers and also to promote the further development of the wind power industry.     

Uncertain Productivity Growth and the Choice between FDI and Export

While determinants of FDI patterns have received widespread attention, the timing of their surge remains largely unexplained. According to the proximity–concentration trade‐off argument, a surge in FDI in times of decaying international transportation costs seemingly represents a paradox. Besides transportation costs, other factors have contextually changed: in particular, the uncertainty that firms bear has increased. Enriching the classical choice problem of a multinational firm with insights from the literature on investment under uncertainty, we illustrate how different types of uncertainty determine the timing and optimal entry mode (i.e. FDI or export) of a multinational enterprise into a new market.     

Demand and cost impacts of the 2 mm technology program in the US motor-vehicle market

We assess the impact on demand and producers’ costs of a new technology implemented in the US auto industry, the 2 mm program. This is a fascinating case partially because of the unique collaboration among public agencies and a consortium of manufacturers and universities. Using a type of hedonic price model for demand, we show that the new technology was responsible for a short-lived increase in demand for vehicles produced by US automakers at increased producers’ costs. Firms that refused to participate in the consortium attained smaller net gains implementing the technology independently. Overall, our approach differs from that of previous analysts in that we (1) separate demand from supply, (2) employ a comprehensive vehicle database, spanning 1981–1998 data, including data on virtually all vehicle models sold in the USA, as well as data on plants’ and producers’ technology characteristics, and (3) rely on sales and production data rather than plant data. Also, we quantify the cost of not participating in the consortium.