Promoting of Investment in Africa*

Abstract: This paper examines the trend, constraints, promotion, and prospects of investment – domestic investment, foreign direct investment, and private portfolio investment – in Africa. After identifying the importance of investment in Africa's economic development, it was shown that all forms of investment are low in Africa and hence inadequate for the attainment of the MDGs and poverty reduction in the continent. The constraining factors include: low resources mobilization; high degree of uncertainty; poor governance, corruption, and low human capital development; unfavorable regulatory environment and poor infrastructure, small individual country sizes; high dependence on primary commodities exports and increased competition; poor image abroad; shortage of foreign exchange and the burden of huge domestic and external debt; and undeveloped capital markets, their high volatility, and home bias by foreign investors. The paper recommends that successful promotion of both domestic, foreign direct and portfolio investment in Africa will require actions and measures at the national, regional, and international levels. It concludes that the prospects are bright. New and attractive investment opportunities are emerging in infrastructure, particularly as most African countries now encourage public/private partnerships for investments in this sector. In addition to privatization, renewed interest within Africa in undertaking regionally based projects and joint exploitation of natural resources is creating other investment opportunities. Apart from the fact that investment in Africa yields the highest returns, investment risk in the continent is declining. In addition, much progress has been made in recent years to improve the investment climate in Africa. All this is of course is not to deny that obstacles do remain hence economic reforms to enhance domestic investment would need to be complemented by measures to attract increased foreign capital. Critical in such endeavors must be efforts to improve governance in some countries as well as to eliminate socio‐political violence in others and development of domestic capital markets, while government institutions must be modernized and upgraded.     

美国财产税制度变革及其启示

本文在考察美国财产税收制度的发展和变革历程时发现,建立在杰弗逊式的民主、自由、平等思想基础和财政联邦主义结构上的美国财产税税收制度一直倍受争议。通过对当前美国财产税税收制度的特点、对地方政府的作用、现存的问题及其变革历程和趋势的分析,可以帮助我们更清晰地认识财产税的本质属性,为我国物业税的开征提供有益的经验和启示。     

中国投资率与投资效率的国际比较及启示

中国的投资率一直较高,现已达到了改革开放以来的最高水平,几乎是世界平均投资率的两倍。与东亚地区的日、韩等出现过经济起飞的经济体相比,中国投资率的峰值超过了日本、韩国和台湾地区在其高增长时期曾经达到的峰值,与泰国和马来西亚相近,而高投资率持续的时间则远超这些经济体。中国目前的实际增量资本-产出比已接近泰国、马来西亚、印尼和韩国在东亚金融危机爆发前的水平,表明随着投资率的过度上升,宏观投资效率在降低,金融风险在增加。中国应进一步采取宏观调控措施,抑制投资率的过度上升。     

Implications of the Dual Banking System in the US

This paper examines the differences in characteristics of federal and state chartered banks by using individual commercial bank’s data sets from 1984 to 2006. The findings indicate significant differences between these two groups of banks in terms of their asset and liability management strategies. In line with these differences, credit channel of monetary policy is found to work differently for state and federal banks. Federal banks are found to be more responsive to monetary policy changes.     

后危机时代国际退休年龄制度改革及其对我国的启示

肇始于2008年的国际金融危机使欧洲各国陷入严重财政危机。为缓解债务压力、减少财政赤字,欧盟各国相继改革退休制度。其中,以延长退休年龄为政策首选。欧洲退休年龄制度改革引起我国国内各阶层强烈关注,并围绕我国是否应推迟法定退休年龄形成支持与反对两大阵营。前者主要包括技术人员、职业经理人、公务员、专家学者和部分在职者;后者主要包括大学生、待业者、部分私营企业主和一线工人。专家建议与网络民意的偏差缘由可以借助人力资本成本—收益分析模型得以解释。文章认为,延迟全民退休年龄应满足一定先决条件。现阶段,该条件尚不成熟,但这并不妨碍先行退休年龄改革整体设计和局部试验。     

Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Africa: The Case of ECOWAS*

Abstract: This study examines the impact of (real) demand shocks, (aggregate) supply shocks, and monetary shocks on real exchange rates in 13 West African countries. We observe that the real demand shocks explain most of the fluctuations in real exchange rates in all these countries. Accordingly, policymakers should adopt a careful demand management strategy by controlling government expenditure and taxes.     

Licensing Laws and Implications for Private Investment: The Case of Tanzania*

Abstract: This paper investigates the licensing provisions in the Electricity Ordinance of Tanganyika that are believed to influence private sector investment. There were three main strands to the analytical methodology — textual analysis, actual practice and perceptions of key stakeholders. The findings suggest that there is sufficient evidence to support the belief that the existing licensing laws in Tanzania do not provide the necessary features for attracting private investment, namely clarity, efficiency and transparency. More specifically the Electricity Ordinance of 1931 is so much outdated that it is not fit for amendment; instead it should be considered for revocation and a new law be enacted. The new law should: (a) provide for a clear licensing procedure in the sense that it should specify what activities need licence; who can apply for licence; where one can apply for licence; what documents to fill; (b) provide for efficiency‐enforcing provisions such as stipulating the time frame for the regulator to finish processing an application; (c) provide for a transparent licensing procedure in the sense that it should prescribe a large amount of openness — publishing of applications and that minutes be on open display as required in Uganda and Zimbabwe. The proposed multi‐sector regulator for utilities is a step in the right direction for it reduces the chances for regulatory capture, thus reinforcing transparency in the dealings of the regulator.     

汇率制度转型的国际经验及对中国的启示

本文通过对20世纪90年代以来的新型市场经济国家的汇率制度转型的研究,认为:自愿转型的在转型前通常宏观经济情况良好,具有平稳的GDP增长、良好的国际收支、充足的外汇储备以及较强的金融监管能力等;危机推动转型的在转型前往往宏观经济情况恶化,GDP增长放缓、国际收支巨额赤字、外汇储备大幅减少以及较差的金融监管能力。自愿转型对经济没有负面影响,而危机推动的转型会对经济产生较大的负面冲击。最后总结了对我国汇率制度改革值得借鉴的经验。     

US Presidential Election 2008： Policy Implications for US-China Trade and Investment

The next US president will be elected in November 2008. Since the relative stabilization of war in Iraq, the economy has become the national priority of the 2008 US election. In their campaign efforts, the Democrats have enjoyed greater momentum than the Republicans, in terms of polls, fund-raising and corporate support. After the Bush era, the next president will seek to restore America＇s leadership and to engage in multilateralism. Since the 1990s, China has been the most rapidly-growing US export destination. In terms of US-Shinese trade and investment, the next president, ira Democrat, will, among other issues, review trade agreements and has pledged to co-sponsor legislation that would allow US companies to seek anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports based on the perceived undervaluation of the Chinese currency. If a Republican, the next president will support global integration and oppose protectionist measures. The Democratic Congress is likely to oppose Republican policies in general and free trade policies in particular. Both scenarios imply increasing pressure on US-Chinese trade and investment relationships. Because these two nations now account for almost half of global growth, the state of the futureUS-Chinese bilateral relationship has worldwide implications.     

人民币汇率制度与国际货币体系

本文从目前中国特殊国情,以及国际政治、经济环境等因素出发,论述了中国坚持人民币对美元挂钩政策的国际影响,并指出,目前采取的这种挂钩政策具有一定的合理性、必然性与稳定性。     

改革国际货币储备体系

作为中国委员,我主要讨论一下中国的情况,尤其是我们为什么要关注国际货币体系改革？因为这项改革事关中国的利益,但是我认为它还没有引起中国足够的重视。     

货币的国际可交易性与国际货币体系改革

货币的国际可交易性指货币在国际经济活动中得到普遍接受、持有者很容易用它去交换世界各国商品的性质。要准确衡量货币的国际可交易性,必须把使用量和使用范围综合考虑。以货币的国际可交易性来衡量,美元是当之无愧的第一大国际货币,全面发挥了国际间的价值尺度、流通手段和储藏手段的职能。货币的国际可交易性与国际货币体系之间有密切的关系...     

试论国际金融体系改革

在过去的半个多世纪里,世界经济每发生一次金融危机都注定会引发有关国际金融体系改革的争论。而在每一次改革之后人们都会发现,实际的改革进展要小于改革前的期待。开始于2008年下半年的这场讨论也不会例外。这是因为,不同的改革提案反映了不同的利益关系,最后只有一部分符合共同利益需要的提案才会转化为改革成果。