Reforming Tanzania's tea sector: a story of success?

Tea, one of Tanzania's major export crops, contributes about $30 million to the country's export earnings and provides employment to some 50 000 families. Despite the sector's early success, nationalisation of two estates along with neglect of the smallholder sector made it clear that only broad-based policy reforms would revive the sector. Reforms in the tea sector started much earlier than reforms in other export crop sectors. Furthermore, they were undertaken, and hence owned, by the government and the industry. The reforms have been by and large successful. There has been considerable supply response, tea quality has improved, and the research system has been very successful in developing and disseminating useful research findings to both estates and smallholders. However, some issues must be addressed, namely excessive taxation, over-regulation, and the trade policy environment.     

Exchange rate volatility and agricultural trade under policy reforms in South Africa

Decades of government intervention have helped develop the South African agriculture sector to its present state. Policy reforms have included trade and exchange rate policies to increase the country's international competitiveness, reduce poverty and promote economic growth. These reforms are facilitating the growth in agricultural trade and South Africa's reintegration into the global economy. Annual agricultural exports and imports have increased. This paper uses annual data and a vector error-correction model to investigate the supply and demand relationships for agricultural trade flows in South Africa during the past four decades. The results show that prices, real exchange rates, domestic production capacity and real incomes have significant impacts on the country's agricultural trade. In particular, exchange rate volatility has negative impacts. This cannot be viewed solely as an exogenous source of macroeconomic instability in South Africa, as domestic policies play a crucial role in influencing the movement of exchange rates.     

Tariff‐jumping foreign direct investment in protectionist era Ireland

The Committee on Industrial Organisation was established in the early 1960s to evaluate the level of preparedness of Irish industry for the imminent dismantling of the country's protectionist trade barriers. The Committee's sectoral reports list the 900 or so manufacturing firms that it surveyed and that together accounted for more than half of Irish manufacturing employment. From a range of archival sources, this article identifies the nationality of ownership of most of these firms, alongside their date of establishment and level of employment in 1960. Industrial grants data are used to strip out export‐oriented businesses that began to arrive in the 1950s. This makes it possible to estimate the employment share and sectoral presence of tariff‐jumping foreign firms. The latter is analysed through the lens of modern perspectives on foreign direct investment. The article also enhances our understanding of the interest‐group politics of the trade liberalization process.     

Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s

Whether a real devaluation ultimately proves to be expansionary or contractionary depends on whether the boost given to the exportables sector offsets any possible output-depressing effects that may accompany the expenditure-switching policy. Failure of the exportables sector to adequately respond to the price incentives is a virtual guarantee that devaluation will be contractionary. This appears to have been the experience of Indonesia, the country worst hit by the crisis of 1997–1998. This paper explores whether the increased exchange rate variability of the Indonesian rupiah post 1997 may have been a cause for the country's poor export performance. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (2) (2004) 218–240.     

Productivity growth,fixed exchange rates,and export-led growth

This paper studies how the fixed exchange rate regime (FERR) may promote growth when a country experiences faster rates of productivity growth in its tradable sector than its nontradable sector. In a simple two-sector model with money, we show that the FERR can reduce the Balassa-Samuelson effect if wage adjustment is subject to nominal rigidities. The undervaluation thus created suppresses real wage growth but increases the size of the tradable sector and leads to higher growth rates of the entire economy. Using cross-country panel data, our econometric exercises provide robust evidence that supports the results. Meanwhile, other fundamentals, including the external balance position, export share in the tradable sector, and the stage of development, play roles in determining the effects of FERR. Last, we apply the empirical results to run simulations on China from 1994 to 2007 to highlight the role of FERR in the country's export-led growth.     

Openness of the economy,terms of trade,and arms

It is estimated that world military spending in 2011 amounted to over 2.5% of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This corresponds to a spending of $233 per person in the world at 2010 constant prices, an amount close to the GDP per capita of the poorest country in the world. Therefore, it is important for economists to understand the allocation of resources to this sector of the economy. I present a model that explores the determinants of a country's level of military spending. I show how greater gains from trade can lead to greater military expenditures to protect them. It is also found that expansion in the demand for a country's tradable commodities, that is, an improvement in that country's terms of trade, will impact defense spending. Several other propositions emerge from the model which are then empirically tested using both pooled and time series data. The statistical results support the model's propositions.     

International shipping and national economic growth: shipping earnings and the Greek economy in the nineteenth century 1

In Greece, a small peripheral European economy, the service sector and shipping in particular played a highly important role in nineteenth‐century economic development. Despite its importance, however, the difficulty of calculating the ‘invisible earnings’ from the shipping industry's engagement in international activities has led to its underestimation in most analyses of the country's economic growth. This article presents the first estimation of Greek shipping income in the nineteenth century. In addition, it examines the shipping industry within the context of Greek development as a whole, highlighting its significant role in the fully marketized and integrated area of the country's economy in the context of a wider world economy.     

Vehicle currency pricing and its positive welfare consequences under optimal monetary policy

Using a two-country general equilibrium model, this paper analytically derives the possibility of positive welfare consequences of vehicle currency use in invoicing international trades. Such vehicle currency use is prominent in the data. The literature points out welfare loss under optimal monetary policy due to vehicle currency pricing relative to the flexible price equilibrium outcome, modeling only tradable goods. By introducing nontradable goods and their sector-specific productivity shocks, this paper provides a closed-form condition under which one country's welfare is higher under optimal monetary policy if its exports are invoiced with the other country's currency than if invoiced with its own currency, given that the other country's exports are invoiced with the producer's currency. That is, this paper derives a condition under which vehicle currency pricing is preferred by the nonvehicle currency country to producer currency pricing.     

PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION – AN ALTERNATIVE TO CVDS: A COMMENT

This note is a comment to Wang (2008)'s contribution in the SAJE (Vol. 76 (3)). We show that when firms' strategic variables are prices and not quantities, Wang's findings are largely reversed. In particular, the foreign government levies an export tax on its producer as opposed to an export subsidy. Further, both the “optimal tax” and the domestic welfare are non‐monotonic in the degree of product differentiation.     

Industrialisation in a small grain economy during the First Globalisation: Bulgaria c. 1870–1910

In Bulgaria the share of secondary production in GDP remained constantly low between c. 1870–1910. To explain the country's exceptionally weak growth, we use endogenous and unified growth theory. Gerschenkron and Palairet blame a self-sufficiency-oriented peasant economy for rising labour and raw material costs in industry, which destroyed the competitiveness of Bulgarian manufacturing and prevented industrialisation. We refute the existence of any long-lasting cost increases in industry after 1878. Quite the opposite was true: the expansion of Bulgaria's secondary sector was restricted by detrimental changes on the demand side, for which peasants were not responsible. Recent research claims that, around 1910, Bulgarian textile production was significantly lower than in 1870. Our study brings to light new data and information that clearly disproves this view. Until around 1910, a booming modern manufacturing sector more than replaced the country's proto-industries’ textile outputs, which had plummeted dramatically during the early years of the newly founded Bulgarian state. However, as the rise of modern manufacturing in textile production coincided with the decline of the entire large sector of traditional manufacturing, secondary production as a whole stagnated.     

Urban agriculture in Dar es Salaam: Its contribution to solving the economic crisis and the damage it does to the environment

This article discusses urban agriculture in the city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and how it helps people to cope with the country's economic crisis. Urban agriculture is also associated with environmental degradation. The article identifies factors that encourage urban agriculture at four different levels and suggests that to check further environmental degradation, concerted efforts should be made at all four levels. Such efforts should be coordinated and integrated into a holistic view of sustainable urban development.     

Chinese exports and productivity gains: panel evidence

This paper examines the impact of imports from China on the labour productivity levels of importers, using unbalanced data from 1994 to 2006. It is hypothesised that imports from China increase importer countries' labour productivity levels. Using cross‐section, fixed and random‐effect models, a statistically significant, positive relationship is found between the share of a country's imports from China and labour productivity in the manufacturing sector of that country. Moreover, it is found that imports from China have a larger impact on China's main Asian‐Pacific trade partners and countries with higher manufacturing shares in their total exports.     

Des cours internationaux des produits de base aux défis de développement de l'Afrique

Résumé: Les consequences souvent dramatiques de l'evolution recente des cours internationaux des produits de base d'exportation pour les pays africains conduisent a se demander quelle peut etre la place de ce secteur dans le developpement a venir de leurs economies. La premiere partie analyse les mecanismes de l'evolution des cours en distinguant les facteurs explicatifs de court, de moyen et de long terme. Elle examine en particulier le r61e et la portee des marches a terme. La seconde partie degage quelques perspectives generales concernant les fluctuations pluriannuelles cycliques des cours et la position de l'Afrique sur les marches internationaux des produits. Elle pose alors la question de la releve progressive eventuelle du secteur des produits de base comme secteur generateur du surplus macroeconomique exportable necessaire pour financer le developpement. En fait, une vue generale et plurisectorielle de la dynamique des economies montre que dans la plupart des cas, ce secteur va conserver une place essentielle, mais elle souligne aussi la necessite d'une profonde mutation de l'agriculture et d'un relevement des revenus ruraux. Abstract: The often dramatic consequences of the recent trend of international export commodity prices for the African countries raise the question as to what could be the role of this sector in the future development of their economies. The first part of this paper deals with the mechanisms of the trend of prices by differentiating short, medium and long-term explanatory factors. The second part gives some general prospects concerning cyclical multi-year fluctuations of prices and Africa's place on the world commodity market. It therefore considers the issue of the possible and gradual take-over by the commodities sector as the generator of the exportable macro-economic surplus required for development financing. In fact, a general and multi-sectoral overview of the dynamics of economies shows that in most cases, this sector will play an essential role, but it also stresses the need for a profound change in agriculture and increasing farm incomes.     

The Role of Agriculture on the Recent Brazilian Economic Growth: How Agriculture Competes for Resources

Drawing upon the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, and other time series data, we construct a multi‐sector Ramsey model that shows the transition growth of the Brazilian agricultural sector and its effects on growth of the industrial and service sector of the economy, with particular emphasis given to the years 1994–2010. Our results capture the importance of the agriculture's capital intensity and the sector's factor productivity on the sector's growth, the substitution of capital for labor in agriculture, and the sustaining of agriculture's share in Brazilian GDP. These features are rather unique among emerging economies, most of which have experienced a transition out of agriculture and growth in nonfarm production relative to agriculture.     

IMPACTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM: A SYSTEM GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS ESTIMATION

Using a system generalized method of moments model, the present paper investigates the impacts of trade liberalization on employment in Vietnam from 1999 to 2004. The results show that the increase in industrial output increased labor demand, whereas the increasing wage rate led to a decline in the employment level. The impact of export expansion on derived labor demand was positive and statistically significant, indicating that the higher level of exports than previously presented employment opportunities for the country's large labor surplus. As far as imports are concerned, empirical observations indicate that imports did not necessarily negatively impact Vietnam's employment level.     

Domestic value added and employment generated by Chinese exports: A quantitative estimation

We develop an input–output methodology to estimate how Chinese exports affected the country's total domestic value added (DVA) and employment in the years 2002 and 2007. For every US$1000 dollar of Chinese exports in 2007 (2002), DVA and employment are estimated to be US$591 (US$466) and 0.096 (0.242) person-year, respectively. To implement these estimations, we use hitherto unpublished Chinese government data to construct several completely new datasets, including an input–output table with separate input–output and employment-output coefficients for processing exports, non-processing exports, and output for domestic use. We hypothesize that, in comparison with the export sector, China's domestic sector would be relatively autarkic due to China's history of central planning. We expect that exports would generate less DVA and employment than output for domestic use. Processing exports, which are highly dependent on imported inputs, would similarly generate less DVA and employment than non-processing exports. Our findings support these expectations. For both 2002 and 2007, the DVA and employment effects of domestic final demand were higher than those of non-processing exports, which were in turn higher than those of processing exports. However, with the progress of economic reforms, we found that the total DVAs of exports and domestic final demand have converged from 2002 to 2007.     

Firm Productivity,Innovation, and Financial Development

How do firm‐specific actions—in particular, innovation—affect firm productivity? What is the role of the financial sector in facilitating higher productivity? Using a rich firm‐level data set, we find that innovation is crucial for firm performance as it directly and measurably increases productivity. The impact of innovation on productivity is larger in less‐developed countries. Evidence of financial sector development influencing the innovation‐productivity link is weak, but the effect is difficult to identify due to correlation between indicators of a country's financial and nonfinancial development. Furthermore, we find evidence that the innovation effect on productivity is more significant for high‐tech firms than for low‐tech firms.     

“Linguistic Distance” as a Determinant of Bilateral Trade

We introduce a measure of language difficulty called “linguistic distance” into a modified gravity model to determine whether a language being further away from English affects the level of trade. Our sample of 36 non-English-speaking countries includes Japan and South Korea, which we argue are special cases because of World War II, the Korean War, and subsequent close political and economic ties with the United States. Presence of a stock of immigrants in the home country has been shown to enhance trade with the country of origin. Controlling for immigrant network and information attributes, the special relationship with Japan and Korea, and the standard gravity model variables, we find that trade will be less between the United States and a country the further that country's language is from English. These results hold for aggregate exports and imports and for exports and imports of consumer and producer manufactures.     

Tourism impact,distribution and development: The spatial structure of tourism in the Western Cape province of South Africa

The structural dimensions of a country's tourism sector, and in particular the spatial structure of tourism production and consumption, relate closely to the nature and extent of the impact that tourism can have. This article examines the spatial characteristics of tourism in the Western Cape province, one of South Africa's foremost international tourist regions, and where its government seeks to use tourism as an instrument of development and socio-economic transformation. To understand how this could be effected it is necessary to understand the spatial distributional effects of tourism, and the underlying reasons for it. To this end the article examines the spatial structure of the provincial accommodation sector as evidenced in patterns of accommodation supply and tourist usage (demand); and trends in the nature, direction and distribution of public and private-sector tourism investments. The central argument is that tourism is geographically focused, with tourist activities concentrated in a few locales and sub-regions. This follows the general demographic and economic contours of the province. Yet trends in capital investments tend to reinforce the spatial concentration of tourism. Attempts by the government to spread tourism's benefits have not been too successful due to institutional and capacity deficiencies. Greater emphasis should be placed on developing domestic tourism.     

Understanding China's demand for resource imports

Is China's demand for resources driven predominantly by domestic factors or by global demand for its exports? The answer to this question is of interest given the highly resource-intensive nature of China's growth, and is important for many resource-exporting countries, such as Australia, Brazil, Canada and India. This paper provides evidence that China's (mainly manufacturing) exports have been a significant driver of its demand for resource commodities over recent decades. First, it employs input–output tables to demonstrate that, historically, manufacturing has been at least as important as construction as a driver of China's demand for resource-intensive metal products. Second, it shows that global trade in non-oil resource commodities can be described by the gravity model of trade. Using this model it is found that, controlling for other determinants of resource trade, exports (and the manufacturing sector more generally) are a sizeable and significant determinant of a country's resource imports, and that this has been true for China as well as for other countries.