Exploring the pension ‘X factor’ for generation Y men

In order to reduce state dependency in retirement, current UK pension policy automatically enrols employees into workplace pensions. A key component of success is preventing workers opting-out of the workplace scheme. However, Australian research examining auto-enrolment policy indicates that young men prioritise enjoying life over retirement saving. This article seeks to inform financial services marketing within the new pension auto-enrolment context through examining attitudes towards retirement and pensions among young men in the United Kingdom. Qualitative data is gathered from five dyadic interviews, thematic analysis reveals salient issues of widespread mistrust, negative perceptions of retirement and limited knowledge of auto-enrolment coupled with confidence in future earnings and a desire for greater control. The article concludes with implications for pensions communications planning.     

Private Pension Arrangements and Retirement in Britain*

This paper looks at the policy debate surrounding private pensions and retirement patterns in the UK. Recent increases in longevity have led not only to increased pressures in public pensions but also to corresponding increases in the importance of private pensions in the UK and changes in the way in which they are structured. We consider the economic implications of these changes, and in particular the increased importance of defined contribution plans. In addition, we discuss the prospects for future trends in retirement ages.     

Pension reform,retirement, and life-cycle unemployment

This paper investigates the labor market impact of four often proposed policy measures for sustainable pensions: strengthening the tax benefit link, moving from wage to price indexation of benefits, lengthening calculation periods, and introducing more actuarial fairness in pension assessment. We consider the impact on three margins of aggregate labor supply, retirement behavior, job search, and hours worked. We provide some analytical results and use a computational model to demonstrate the economic impact of recent pension reform in Austria. Reducing the distortion in the retirement decision by introducing pension supplements and discounts conditional on the chosen retirement date promises the largest gains. We also find that the pension reform is far from sufficient to offset the fiscal implications of projected demographic change in Austria.     

Companies’ Access to Finance,Co-operative Industrial Relations,and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of the States of South Eastern Europe

This paper examines the links between corporate funding, co-operative industrial relations, and wage flexibility, on the one hand, and economic growth, on the other, in 11 countries in South Eastern Europe. These links have been downplayed in previous research. The paper draws on the most comprehensive and extensive dataset on these issues for the whole of the region. Previous research has focused on a selection of these countries. The paper uses a novel analytical technique, fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis, to examine these possible associations. It finds that wage flexibility and co-operative labour relations can promote growth; the availability of different forms of domestic funding for firms does not. The findings indicate that policy makers may focus their efforts on promoting wage flexibility within a consensual industrial labour system if they wish to foster economic growth.     

Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State

The Spanish population will experience significant aging in coming years. This demographic change will impose a heavy burden on the national budget. In particular, expenditure on pensions and health are expected to rise significantly. The inflow of immigrants could help to alleviate the fiscal burden that future generations will have to bear. In this paper we try to quantify the impact of immigration on the Spanish Welfare State, using the methodology of Generational Accounting. Our results suggest that the impact of immigration will be positive and significant.     

Credible Pensions*

One of the main problems in pension policy is to develop an institutional framework that guarantees that public and private pensions promises are kept. This paper discusses how the governance of public and private pensions is key to making such promises credible. It argues that credibility concerns undermine the case for earnings‐related pensions run by the state and private defined benefit plans.     

人口年龄结构与金融结构——宏观事实与微观机制

人口年龄结构是影响宏观经济的重要因素,不仅能够通过“人口红利”影响经济增长,也能通过金融资产需求作用于金融结构,进而影响经济增长。首先,本文基于宏观数据发现人口年龄结构与金融结构之间存在紧密联系,伴随老年人口占比的提高,金融结构更偏向间接融资,且以金融行为来衡量的风险偏好程度显著下降;其次,本文基于2013年中国家庭金融调查数据,从微观主体对金融资产需求的角度研究人口年龄结构对金融结构的影响机制,分析家庭人口年龄结构对风险资产参与行为及风险态度的影响。实证结果表明,家庭老年人口占比越高,家庭参与股票或基金投资意愿及比重越低;对于已持有风险资产的家庭,老年人口占比提高,家庭风险资产持有比重会降低。此外,家庭人口年龄结构会影响风险态度,家庭老年人口占比提升会显著降低风险偏好程度,这是其影响家庭风险资产参与行为的重要渠道。     

An Examination of the Demand for Life Insurance

For almost 50 years researchers have sought to explain consumer behavior concerning the purchase of life insurance. This study examines the literature relating to specific demographic and economic factors that may be identifiable as traits influencing the demand for life insurance, and discusses general environmental issues that may relate to life insurance demand. By organizing the wealth of literature in a useful and systematic format, noting consistencies and contradictions, this examination seeks to provide a better understanding of how and why life insurance purchases are made.     

英国职业养老金发展动态及启示

本文介绍了英国职业养老金的基本情况。在老龄化等影响下,英国公共部门和私有部门职业养老金分别出现了严重危机。近年英国政府全面加强了职业养老金改革,包括实施养老金个人账户制,调整公共部门养老金政策,提出加强工作养老金的设想等。这些政策的核心是如何设计一种更有效率,但同时保障了人们养老需求的市场化私有养老金模式。英国职业养老金的发展的经验教训,对我国完善养老金制度有积极启示意义。     

义务教育能提高代际流动性吗？

提高代际流动、促进机会均等对经济社会健康发展至关重要。本文基于2013年中国家庭收入调查数据和2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,利用1986年颁布的义务教育法在省份间的实施时间差异作为外生冲击,使用双重差分方法探究义务教育政策对代际流动的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,义务教育显著提高了代际之间的教育流动性,原因在于父母教育水平、职业层次、收入水平较低的孩子,受教育年限提升得更多。本文的政策含义在于,应当进一步发挥公共政策在提高代际流动性方面的作用,通过教育机会均等化来促进社会公平正义。     

社会保险市场上的逆向选择与公共政策干预:国际研究动态述评

随着社会经济的进步与发展,提供社会保险日益成为现代政府的重要任务,而信息不对称带来的逆向选择这一市场失灵问题是政府提供社会保险的主要经济依据之一。由此,近年来国际学术界涌现出一大批关于社会保险市场上逆向选择与公共政策干预问题的研究文献,在将理论与数据相结合以分析公共政策的福利影响方面出现了很多研究进展。本文就尝试对这一领域的研究进行总结与分析,为国内学术研究的开展与公共经济政策的设计提供有益借鉴。     

Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exists) to be revealed by the first move, the experiment was implemented via the Internet on a subset of the University of Tilburg's ongoing family expenditure survey panel. The advantages of using such a set of subjects for the experiment are twofold: the demographic characteristics of the set are known and therefore demographic inferences can be made; the representativeness of the set is known and therefore inferences about populations can be made. The results suggest that at least 36% of the subjects had behaviour inconsistent with the hypothesis under test: that people formulate plans and then implement them. Interestingly demographic variables are unable to explain the consistency or inconsistency of individuals. One conclusion is that subjects simply make errors. An alternative conclusion, consistent with previous experimental research, is that people are unable to predict their own future decisions. The implications for dynamic theory (particularly relating to savings and pensions decisions) are important.     

The Many Challenges of Pension Accounting

Accounting for defined benefit pension plans has long been a major issue in accounting. Standard‐setters are grappling with revisions to pension accounting standards, and much change has already occurred in the United Kingdom. This paper identifies and discusses most of the major issues that standard‐setters must confront in developing new approaches to financial reporting for pensions. Key issues concern how to report the impact of changes in assumptions, how to recognize pension costs on the balance sheet and income statement, and how to reconcile the differences between accountants' and actuaries' approaches to pensions. Current standards assume that accounting estimates are independent of actuarial assumptions, and yet require a direct comparison of the accounting liability with the pension plan assets, when in fact they are incompatible measures based on differing assumptions and differing methodologies. As well, accounting has been complicit in managers' wishes to hide the volatility inherent in a pension plan investment strategy that focuses on higher‐risk equities to fund estimated monetary liabilities that have been discounted at low‐risk interest rates. Drawing on studies and research done largely in Europe, this paper attempts to consolidate some of the current thinking on the topic and to propose some preferred approaches to dealing with the problems of pension accounting.     

Broadband development in the European Union to 2012—A virtuous circle scenario

Along with many national governments, the European Commission has pushed broadband to the fore of social and economic policies in recent years. It has aligned broadband developments with furthering information society and knowledge economy developments.This paper presents a positive scenario for broadband-related developments in the European Union area from 2009 to 2012. The scenario, the iNetWorked Society, is one of four developed in an extensive multi-country project funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme.Before examining the scenario, however, the paper places into a critical perspective the EU's legacy of broadband policy to date. It highlights the limitations of technology-centred policy frames and broadband strategies, which privilege supply-side infrastructure and neglect demand-side issues of applications, uses and users. Such policy frames have been associated with great variations in the level of broadband rollout, take-up and use across Member States.The paper then outlines the socio- and macro-economic conditions that need to be in place in Europe for the positive scenario of the iNetworked Society to be realised. The iNetWorked Society comprises a plausible, internally consistent scenario for developments in a number of broadband-related areas: broadband adoption, e-business, e-work, e-government and digital content. It is based on a virtuous circle of technological, economic and socio-political developments, including strong economic growth, high broadband penetration, and high social engagement with ICTs.     

The Information Economics Approach to Financial Reporting

This paper provides a non-technical overview of the literature on the economics of information and its implications for financial reporting. This paper attempts to spell out the unity of approach which underlies all information economics models and focuses on the main implications of the literature for accounting policy makers. The central section of the paper identifies precise conditions under which the provision of public information can lead to an improvement in social welfare. An understanding of these conditions is essential for policy makers if they are to take into account the economic effects of their decisions. The final section highlights three important unresolved issues and identifies promising directions for further research.     

Demography as a forecasting tool

The European population is rapidly ageing. This implies changing economic and social relations between the generations. In turn this precipitates economic change. In particular the welfare bill in the future needs to be paid for more dependants by a smaller working population. This fundamental shift also changes the conditions for productivity growth, trade and even monetary policy. Using demographic projections to forecast these changes and integrate them into futures scenarios contributes to realism in the futures envisioned. Demographic processes can be influenced by policy, but the feedback is slow. This ensures the usefulness of demographic forecasting but it also implies that policy decisions need to be taken well in advance of the problems that ageing will cause. At horizons beyond 10–20 years there are ample opportunity to adapt the society to avoid unacceptable scenarios. Before that the scope for action is much less and much more constrained. The inertia of the demographic structure is such that it is hard and probably costly to turn unwanted trends caused by unbalanced age structures. For example, a likely consequence of the developing scarcity of labour in Europe is that the demand for education goes down in spite of the desirability for society to expand higher education.     

商业银行理财业务货币政策传导功能研究--基于利率渠道的实证分析

近年来,银行理财业务快速发展,在广义货币供应量以及社会融资规模中的比重逐步增大。与此同时,我国经济结构转型升级持续深化,货币理论不断完善,特别是货币政策调控框架正在由数量型为主向价格型为主转变。在这一背景下,关于银行理财业务的货币政策传导功能研究,日益成为重要课题。通过对国内外相关研究成果进行简要介绍,对银行理财业务参与下货币政策利率传导机制的作用路径进行了分析,并通过实证分析发现,银行理财对货币政策的利率传导功能不仅存在,而且使货币政策的利率传导能力不断增强。最后根据实证结果,对货币政策操作和理财业务发展提出了政策建议,以期对金融实践和学术研究有所裨益。     

经济政策不确定性、地区文化与保险需求

本文在拓展背景风险理论研究的基础上,揭示了经济政策不确定性对保险需求的影响及其受地区文化制约的理论机制。并利用2007-2017年中国30个地区的月度面板数据,检验了经济政策不确定性、地区文化与保险需求间的内在联系。结果发现:第一,经济政策不确定性会对保险需求产生显著正影响,且这种效应在地区人身险需求上表现更明显;第二,将地区文化指标集纳入经济政策不确定性与保险需求关系的研究框架,发现地区文化差异会对经济政策不确定性影响保险需求产生调节效应。因此政府需在充分重视经济政策波动和文化对经济活动的双重影响基础上,加强国内社会保障体系建设,建立更透明的信息传递渠道,培育人们主动抵抗风险的意识和文化习惯,调整保险供给结构,以减少不确定性对社会经济行为的负面冲击。     

Public capital, public pension, and growth

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations, whose engine of economic growth is productive public capital. We investigate a public policy under which the government allocates tax revenue between investment in public capital accumulation and public pension provision. We show that increasing the share of spending on public pensions always reduces economic growth. However, we show numerically that public pension provision improves social welfare and there exists an optimal share of spending on public pension provision unless the value of the time discount factor of the government is sufficiently high. Moreover, we show that in an economy facing an aging population, an increase in social security provision for the old rather than an increase in public investment can be preferable from the viewpoint of social welfare.