经济改革与绩效:中国与越南的比较研究

中国和越南分别在1978年、1986年启动了经济改革,两国都取得了引人瞩目的成就。然而,尽管改革的背景和特征大体相近,两国的增长还是出现了明显的不同。文章研究发现:(1)中国与越南在其初始条件、改革与经济管理的方式上是相似的;(2)两国的增长不仅兼有量与质的差异,而且当两国在加速增长之时,增长上的差距就会扩大;(3)中国与越南增长的差异主要由政府效能上相当大的差异来解释,而不是以制度特征或人力资本上的显著差距来解释。     

中国与越南农村土地制度的比较

中国目前正在探索农村土地流转市场化的制度设计,越南则已经基本实现了农村土地流转的市场化。对照中越两国农村土地制度差异,吸取越南农村土地改革中的经验教训,中国的农村土地改革应该立足国情,探索既保障农民土地收益又兼顾民生权益的制度模式。     

浅说越南农业改革之路

最近,我们到越南了解他们农业改革和发展情况。中越两国有着不少相似之处,相互借鉴一点经验,确有好处。越南的农业改革虽然起步较晚,但发展还是比较快。 （一） 据１９９６年统计资料,越南总人口７５３６万人,其中８０％在农村,７２％的劳动力从事农业。人均国内生产总值３３０美元,农业在国内生产总值中占２７ ％,农产品在出口总额中占３２ ％。越南农业生产的自然条件比较好,现有耕地７３５万公顷,其中可灌溉面积６０％,人均耕地虽然只有０．１３５公顷,但复种指数高达１８０％。此外,还有可耕荒地 ３００多万公顷,林地 ９…     

纵观越南经济危机

当前世界经济目光聚焦越南,不再是为其过去七年高速发展的经济,而是关注其是否会成为第二次亚洲金融危机的导火索。越南当前面临着通货膨胀压力,货币贬值压力,对外贸易赤字,政府财政赤字,楼市股市疲软等危机,政府采取了各种措施防止危机的继续扩大。由于越南经济情况不同于泰国经济危机,并且当前亚洲各国经济实力与1997年相比都增强许多,因此认为不会引发亚洲经济危机的爆发。但越南的经济危机亦对中国有着警示作用。     

“一带一路”战略构想下云南省和越南之间的旅游合作

习近平主席提出的建设一带一路战略构想强调共商、共建、共享原则,开创地区新型合作。一带一路对各地进行了定位,其中对云南的定位是:面向南亚、东南亚的辐射中心。云南省也将以此为契机,发挥区位优势,推进云南与周边国家边境贸易和旅游和文化之间的合作。云南省与越南山水相连,开展区域间旅游合作的区位优势很明显,而双方独特丰富的旅游资源,使得双方具备较强的互补性和发展旅游业合作的基础。旅游业的合作与发展带动了双方相关产业如服务、交通、通信业等的快速发展,增进了两国人民的相互了解和传统友谊,促进了双边在其他领域的交流与合作。云南省与越南双方的旅游合作在发展过程中存在着旅游监督机制不健全、优秀旅游人才缺乏和旅游基础设施有待改善等问题。文章通过云南省与越南的旅游优势和双方合作现状、存在问题的分析,提出在一带一路战略构想下,云南省与越南应抓住机遇,通过完善双方旅游合作模式,加大双方的旅游基础设施、旅游协调机制和法律政策的合作以及旅游人力资源的培训,促进双方旅游业的发展。     

Poverty,inequality and ethnic minorities in Vietnam

The present study examines how and why ethnic minorities are poorer than ethnic majorities in Vietnam using the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey data for 2002 and 2004. First, the analysis confirms that households belonging to the ethnic minority groups are not only poorer but also more vulnerable to various shocks than those in the ethnic majority groups, namely the Kinh and the Chinese. Second, household composition (e.g., dependency burden), education, land holding and location are important determinants of expenditure and poverty, whilst there is some diversity among different ethnic groups. Finally, the decomposition analyses reveal that the ethnic minorities are poorer not necessarily because they have more disadvantaged household characteristics (e.g., educational attainment or location), but, more importantly, because the returns to the characteristics are much lower for ethnic minorities than for the majorities. Government policies to reduce structural differences between ethnic majorities and minorities are imperative to address the disparities in returns to endowments between them.     

Pollution,energy use,GDP and trade: estimating the long-run relationship for Vietnam

Since the beginning of economic reform in the 1980s and, in particular, with its openness to international trade accelerating since the 1990s, the Vietnamese economy has registered significant growth. At the same time, energy consumption and the level of pollution in Vietnam has also increased. This article aims to focus on the link between openness to trade and pollution in Vietnam. Due to lack of data, very few existing studies have focused on Vietnam. Using annual data from1980 to 2011 and employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, based on an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model, we find that there is a statistically significant long-run relationship amongst pollution, openness to trade, energy consumption and real national income in Vietnam. This conclusion continues to hold when the possibility of a structural break in the relationship is allowed for using the Gregory-Hansen approach to cointegration. Analysis of the cointegration relationship suggests that, in response to any exogenous shock to the system, adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium is very fast.     

Industrial relations in Asian socialist-transition economies: China,Vietnam and Laos

This article compares developments in industrial relations in three Asian socialist-transition countries: China, Vietnam and Laos. Previous comparative studies of China and Vietnam have identified major commonalities between these two labour regimes both before and after the economic reforms undertaken since the 1980s. Some studies have also identified key differences between the two, to the extent that it is said that the two labour regimes are ‘on the road to divergence’. Others have suggested that the reform paths undertaken by China and Vietnam are fundamentally similar. This article argues that Laos shares many of the similarities of China and Vietnam, but that to the extent that China and Vietnam are taking different paths Laos is tending to follow the more conservative Chinese path with some unique characteristics of its own.     

Macroeconomic Management and the Transition to the Market in Vietnam

Vietnam′s macroeconomic performance during the transition to a market economy has been very strong, better than those of most economies in Eastern Europe and of the former Soviet Union. Vietnam grew at an average annual rate of 7% during 1989-1992; inflation declined from over 400% in 1988 to 17% in 1992; and exports increased at more than 30% per year during this period. The macroeconomic success can be attributed to the combination of good endowments and good policy. Vietnam′s output is concentrated in agriculture, services, and light industries, all sectors that responded quickly to price liberalization, strengthened property rights, and real exchange-rate devaluation. J. Comp. Econom., June 1994, 18(3), pp. 357-375. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433.     

The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam

We investigate the impact of U.S. bombing on later economic development in Vietnam. The Vietnam War featured the most intense bombing campaign in military history and had massive humanitarian costs. We use a unique U.S. military dataset containing bombing intensity at the district level (N = 584) to assess whether the war damage led to persistent local poverty traps. We compare the heavily bombed districts to other districts controlling for district demographic and geographic characteristics, and use an instrumental variable approach exploiting distance to the 17th parallel demilitarized zone. U.S. bombing does not have negative impacts on local poverty rates, consumption levels, infrastructure, literacy or population density through 2002. This finding indicates that even the most intense bombing in human history did not generate local poverty traps in Vietnam.     

Dispute prevention without courts in Vietnam

Vietnam's firms contract without the shadow of the law and onlypartly in the shadow of the future. Although contracting restsin part on the threat of loss of future business, firms oftenare willing to renegotiate following a breach, so the retaliationis not as forceful as in the standard repeated-game story andnot as effective a sanction. To ensure agreements are kept,firms rely on other devices to supplement repeated-game incentives.Firms scrutinize their trading partners. Community sanctionsare occasionally invoked. Transactions with greater risk ofreneging are supported by more elaborate governance structures.