PROFIT,SURPLUS PRODUCT,EXPLOITATION AND LESS THAN MAXIMIZED UTILITY: A NEW EQUIVALENCE PROPOSITION ON THE FUNDAMENTAL MARXIAN THEOREM

Morishima's Generalized Fundamental Marxian Theorem (GFMT) is an extended form of Okishio's Fundamental Marxian Theorem, which showed the equivalence between positive profit and the exploitation of labor. GFMT is not developed as a system of equivalence proposition between five conditions, which I call ‘The Strong System of Exploitation Theory’. But by the definition of this system, there remains the possibility of positive profit without exploitation. In this paper, I demonstrated an alternative system of equivalence proposition, naming it ‘The Weak System of Exploitation Theory’, in which positive profits always mean exploitation. Here I introduced workers' utility function to define the exploitation concept. Then I could also show that the exploitation is equivalent with the situation where workers' utilities are under‐maximized.     

NEGATIVE SURPLUS VALUE AND INFERIOR PROCESSES*

One of the most interesting results in value theory is that positive profits are consistent with negative surplus value. This result is obtained, using a two-commodity linear model with joint production. Since existence of an inferior process is always implied in a two-commodity model, the result has been supposed to be applicable to a limited type of technology. The purpose of this paper is to show that positive profits with negative surplus value do not necessarily imply the existence of such a process in higher dimensions. Although a different type of inferiority is implied, such a definition of inferiority is quite different from what is normally understood.     

NO MARGINAL ARBITRAGE OF THE SECOND KIND FOR HIGH PRODUCTION REGIMES IN DISCRETE TIME PRODUCTION–INVESTMENT MODELS WITH PROPORTIONAL TRANSACTION COSTS

We consider a class of production–investment models in discrete time with proportional transaction costs. For linear production functions, we study a natural extension of the no‐arbitrage of the second kind condition introduced by Rásonyi. We show that this condition implies the closedness of the set of attainable claims and is equivalent to the existence of a strictly consistent price system under which the evaluation of future production profits is strictly negative. This allows us to discuss the closedness of the set of terminal wealth in models with nonlinear production, functions which may admit arbitrages of the second kind for low production regimes but not marginally for high production regimes.     

Predictive abilities of speculators in energy markets

Using nonparametric methodology, I find that speculators are successful in taking profitable positions in energy futures markets, although the magnitude of this effect is lower than that found previously for agricultural markets. A plausible explanation for this difference is that price forecasting is more difficult for energy commodities. Moreover, I find that the energy speculators’ returns are due to the existence of the risk premiums rather than to speculators’ forecasting abilities. Futures risk premium is highly time-variant; notably, energy investors’ profits have been very limited in the GFC and post-GFC period, which coincided with the financialization of commodity markets.     

The Asymmetric Commodity Inventory Effect on the Optimal Hedge Ratio

Hedging strategies for commodity prices largely rely on dynamic models to compute optimal hedge ratios. This study illustrates the importance of considering the commodity inventory effect (effect by which the commodity price volatility increases more after a positive shock than after a negative shock of the same magnitude) in modeling the variance–covariance dynamics. We show by in‐sample and out‐of‐sample forecasts that a commodity price index portfolio optimized by an asymmetric BEKK–GARCH model outperforms the symmetric BEKK, static (OLS), or naïve models. Robustness checks on a set of commodities and by an alternative mean‐variance optimization framework confirm the relevance of taking into account the inventory effect in commodity hedging strategies.     

Valuing real options using implied binomial trees and commodity futures options

A real option on a commodity is valued using an implied binomial tree (IBT) calibrated using commodity futures options prices. Estimating an IBT in the absence of spot options (the norm for commodities) allows real option models to be calibrated for the first time to market‐implied probability distributions for commodity prices. In addition, the existence of long‐dated futures options means that good volatility estimates may now be incorporated into capital budgeting evaluations of real options projects with long planning horizons. An example is given using gold futures options and a real option to extract gold from a mine. A detailed out‐of‐sample test is included that shows how IBT option pricing errors evolve on subtrees emanating from future levels of the underlying asset. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:203–226, 2007     

Commodities Must Begin to Act Like Branded Companies: Some Perspectives from the United States

The agricultural commodity industry needs to focus more on profits, less on value, and must change with the consumer. In short, a branded approach is needed. Households today are comprised of time-starved persons working outside of the home who have less experience shopping for and distinguishing between ready-to-eat fruits and vegetables and ones that may be overripe. Consumers want to place their trust in branded companies to give an official endorsement that the product is indeed good and worthy of purchase (e.g., Dole Brands, Sun-Maid Raisins). This change in the mindset of today's food shopper has provided an unprecedented opportunity for marketers of commodities to begin to act like branded companies by stamping the name of a well-known brand onto a commodity thereby guaranteeing its goodness and freshness. A profitable opportunity exists on the horizon for commodity marketers to behave in a manner that is more consistent with branded companies and today's consumer. A case history of Ocean Spray, which has recently faced a decision to protect the brand or sell off and take the risk of being a non-branded commodity in an extremely competitive market, is also discussed.     

Market Positioning of Differentiated Products

A brand is a mean of product differentiation and a kind of a sign by which we can distinguish one commodity from another. Consumers' utility, as well as commodity prices are affected by brands. Therefore, the market positioning of branded products is important for firms, too, since it affects profits. This paper presents a theoretical framework that incorporates aspects of brand in microeconomic analysis and the tools for an effective market positioning of differentiated products. A case study illustrates the workings of the methodology; the application evaluates the quality of major tyres producers and undertakes their market positioning.     

A cointegrated commodity pricing model

We propose a commodity pricing model that extends the Gibson–Schwartz two‐factor model to incorporate the effect of linear relations among commodity spot prices, and provide a condition under which such linear relations represent cointegration. We derive futures and call option prices for the proposed model, and indicate that, unlike in Duan and Pliska (2004), the linear relations among commodity prices should affect commodity derivative prices, even when the volatilities of commodity returns are constant. Using crude oil and heating oil market data, we estimate the model and apply the results to the hedging of long‐term futures using short‐term ones.     

An analysis of the profiles and motivations of habitual commodity speculators

The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. The speculator's activity broadens a market, creates essential liquidity, and performs an irreplaceable pricing function. Working knowledge of the profiles and motivations of habitual speculators is essential to both market theorists and policy makers. Responses to a 73-question survey were collected directly from retail commodity brokers with offices in Alabama. Each questionnaire recorded information on an individual commodity client who had traded for an extended period of time. The typical trader studied is a married, white male, age 52. He is affluent and well educated. He is a self-employed business owner who can recover from financial setbacks. He is a politically right-wing conservative involved in the political process. He assumes a good deal of risk in most phases of his life. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler. This trader does not consider preservation of his commodity capital to be a very high trading priority. As a result, he rarely uses stop loss orders. He wins more frequently than he loses (over 51% of the time) but is an overall net loser in dollar terms. In spite of recurring trading losses, he has never made any substantial change in his basic trading style. To this trader, whether he won or lost on a particular trade is more important than the size of the win or loss. Thus he consistently cuts his profits short while letting his losses run. He also worries more about missing a move in the market by being on the sidelines than about losing by being on the wrong side of a market move; that is, being in the action is more important than the financial consequences. Participating brokers confirmed that for the majority of the speculators studied, the primary motivation for continuous trading is the recreational utility derived largely from having a market position. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:765–801, 1998     

WELL‐BEHAVED PRODUCTION ECONOMIES

We show that production economies are tâtonnement stable if consumers satisfy the weak axiom of revealed preference. To ensure that producer supply decisions are well defined, we restrict prices in the tâtonnement so that positive profits cannot occur but do allow supply decisions to be multi‐valued. The model therefore permits linear activities and hence the technologies that admit capital theory paradoxes. The result thus shows that if the consumer side of the economy is well behaved then capital theory paradoxes are irrelevant for stability. Other features of the Walrasian general‐equilibrium model that have aroused suspicion (e.g. that a price below its equilibrium value may have negative excess demand and thus temporarily move even lower in a tâtonnement) may be a sign of trouble but also have nothing to do with capital theory paradoxes. We show that these phenomena arise even when there is no choice of technique and there is an aggregate production function.     

The saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure in developing countries: A dynamic H–O model under an oligopolistic market structure

This paper constructs an oligopolistic dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) model of a small open economy to analyze the relationship between the saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure. The analysis shows that the saving rate determines the trade commodity structure of a country in the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, a developing country with a low capital–labor ratio in the initial state will change from exporting labor-intensive goods in the initial state to exporting capital-intensive goods in the long-run equilibrium if it has a higher saving rate, and this upgrade of trade commodity structure has a social welfare effect under an oligopolistic market structure. The effect of trade policy on the upgrade of the trade commodity structure is uncertain in our model; therefore, a high saving rate is the irreplaceable driving force for trade commodity structure upgrades in developing countries.     

Asset storability and price discovery in commodity futures markets: A new look

This article examines the price discovery performance of futures markets for storable and nonstorable commodities in the long run, allowing for the compounding factor of stochastic interest rates. The evidence shows that asset storability does not affect the existence of cointegration between cash and futures prices and the usefulness of future markets in predicting future cash prices. However, it may affect the magnitude of bias of futures markets’ estimates (or predictions) for future cash prices. These findings have several important implications for commodity production decision making, commodity hedging, and commodity price forecasting. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:279–300, 2001     

Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity-exporting countries

This paper studies the link between real exchange rates and commodity prices, over the period 1993M1–2018M12, for commodity-exporting countries by analysing countries individually and considering the possibility of structural breaks. Our results suggest that: (a) the movements in the price of the main commodity (i.e., the one whose share is at least 20% of total commodity export) affect significantly to the real exchange rate; (b) the sign of the effect of commodity prices on real exchange rate is not clearly positive (as was found by earlier analyses using panel data), but it depends on the country considered; and (c) the negative effects of the possession of natural resources observed in the past decades seem not to be now overwhelming.     

外商直接投资对中国商品进出口影响的实证分析

本文采用贸易引力模型,结合混合回归分析与横截面分析两种方法,对1992年至2004年外商对华直接投资对中国商品进出口、出口、进口的影响进行了实证分析。混合回归结果表明,外商对华直接投资对中国商品进出口、出口、进口的增长均存在长期且显著的促进作用,而且这种促进作用存在时滞。横截面分析结果表明,每年外商对华直接投资对于中国商品进出口、出口、进口的促进作用随着时间的推移是波动的,但从总趋势来看,这种促进作用在不断增强。     

In defense of social responsibility

Recent journalistic criticism of the concept of corporate social responsibility rests on the assertion that social responsibility adds nothing to corporate profits. Hence, inclusion of the motion in the business vocabulary amounts to nothing more than “double talk.”The author of an influential 1953 book on the topic took another look at social responsibility twenty-five years later and found “few gains in the quality of business stewardship over that time.” The idea “remains peripheral to the mainstream of economic thought.”Corporate social responsibility involves more than simply being a law-abiding corporate citizen. It reaches into these decision-making areas where perfectly legal choices may have harmful social consequences. As evidence of social harm amounts, society has to define and defend the ground on which it requires an appropriate response from the business corporation. Society will get the response it demands.     

Managed commodity funds

The performance of managed commodity fund investments during the years l982 through 1996 is examined, both as stand-alone investments and as assets in diversified stock and bond portfolios. Nine stylized commodity fund investments are examined: randomly-selected, single-CTAs, pool, and fund portfolios; equally weighted market portfolios (EWMPs) of CTAs, pools, and funds; and value-weighted portfolios (VWMP) of CTAs, pools, and funds. Further, two subperiods are examined: 1982–1988 and 1989–1996. Based on an analysis using Sharpe ratios as the performance criterion, several types of managed commodity funds make both good stand-alone investments and good portfolio assets; an EWMP of CTAs and a VWMP of pools receive the highest ranking among the alternative commodity fund investments. It is also shown that commodity indexes are not a substitute for a managed commodity fund investment. A number of issues warrant further study: Can investors still earn consistently attractive risk-adjusted returns on managed commodity fund investments if they do not hold diversified portfolios of CTAs and pools? Also: How can such high speculative returns be earned in efficient commodity markets? And: Are CTA and pool returns high because commodity fund managers have superior trading skill? An important issue for future research is to determine whether in fact CTAs do possess such skill. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 377–411, 1999     

黑龙江省物流业现状剖析与发展对策研究

被称为“第三利润源”的现代物流业已成为拉动经济增长的重要新兴产业。作为国家重要的商品粮等“三大基地”和东北亚经济圈中心的黑龙江省,有着发展现代物流业的广阔前景。因此,应以提高经济运行质量和综合竞争力为目的构建现代化的“大物流”体系,尽快使物流业成为黑龙江省经济发展新的增长点及新兴支柱产业之一。     

浅谈盈余管理及其效应

盈余管理是企业在有选择会计政策和会计估计的自由时,在合法的前提下选择使企业市场价值最大化的行为,是企业作为追求市场价值最大化的经济主体。只有对盈余管理理性对待与恰当运用,才能给企业带来一定的正面效应,实现效益最大化。     

Firm migration in the Swedish wholesale trade sector

This article analyzes the determinants of firm migration in the Swedish wholesale trade sector using a unique dataset covering over 10,000 Swedish wholesale trade firms during the years 2000–2004. The results indicate that there are negative correlations between profits, firm age, and firm size and the probability of firm migration. There is a positive correlation between firm growth in the previous year and firm migration, indicating that growth opportunities that cannot be realized at the present location are an important motivation for migration.