Do privatized banks in middle- and low-income countries perform better than rival banks? An intra-industry analysis of bank privatization

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the pre- and post-privatization operating performance and stock market performance of privatized banks and their rivals in middle- and low-income countries. First, we find that privatization announcements elicit negative abnormal returns for rival banks. The effects are more pronounced for subsequent tranche sales where the proportion of government ownership in the privatized bank is reduced. Second, we observe that the privatized banks underperformed the benchmark index in the long run. Investors who bought shares of the privatized banks on the first day of trading and held them for 5 years (instead of investing in the market index) lost 24% of their wealth. The underperformance is consistent with the negative long run returns that have been documented for initial public offerings. Third, we document marginal improvements in the post-privatization operating performance of the privatized banks. Though the privatized banks in middle- and low-income countries are better capitalized than rival banks, they carry higher problem loans and are overstaffed relative to other private banks in the post-privatization period. Since most of the sample firms are partially privatized, we submit that perhaps the continued government ownership of the privatized banks might have hindered managers’ ability to restructure the firms.     

Risk management strategies for banks

We analyze optimal risk management strategies of a bank financed with deposits and equity in a one period model. The bank’s motivation for risk management comes from deposits which can lead to bank runs. In the event of such a run, liquidation costs arise. The hedging strategy that maximizes the value of equity is derived. We identify conditions under which well known results such as complete hedging, maximal speculation or irrelevance of the hedging decision are obtained. The initial debt ratio, the size of the liquidation costs, regulatory restrictions, the volatility of the risky asset and the spread between the riskless interest rate and the deposit rate are shown to be the important parameters that drive the bank’s hedging decision. We further extend this basic model to include counterparty risk constraints on the forward contract used for hedging.     

新型银行风险监控系统

为了有效地防范和化解金融风险，维护正常的金融秩序，在实行严格的金融监管以外，如何有效地利用信息化来为金融行业的风险监控提供支持是近年来的一个热点话题。为了做到对风险早发现、早预警、早控制、早处置，构建一体化的信息搜集、传导和风险分析监控系统，改变目前风险监控彼此分割、资源不能共享的状况，从更高的层次、更广的范围构筑大风险监控系统势在必行。     

Risk-taking behavior of banks under regulation

This paper analyzes the value maximization of regulated banks within a moral-hazard framework. In the model, regulators monitor both the capital ratio and the asset portfolio, and banks simultaneously select the optimum capital ratio and asset portfolio. A key assumption is that a bank cannot expect a positive put option value once it is classified as risky by regulators. The optimum values of the two variables depend on investment opportunities and charter values, as well as regulatory parameters. The model that explicitly incorporates regulation can explain various phenomena that are seemingly inconsistent with the predictions of moral hazard models — for example, a positive relationship between the capital ratio and the riskiness of the asset portfolio. A particularly interesting result is that a larger charter value results in a higher-risk interior solution.     

Commercial banks and business loan behavior

In order to assess the cause of the 1975 weakness in business borrowing from commercial banks, a model of the business loan market is examined and estimated for small and large commercial banks. The major results of this study are that (1) large bank and small bank markets are structurally dissimilar and thus should not be aggregated (2) superior forecasts for total business loans can be achieved by forecasting from large and small bank equations, and (3) the model does forecast the weak business loan behavior in 1975, particularly at the large banks, and tracks the current period fairly well.     

商业银行金融创新的风险防范

经济的发展离不开金融的推动,而金融发展的动力在于创新,金融创新已经成为商业银行生存和发展的重要推动力。国内外商业银行的经营体制、管理模式、服务方式和产品创新日新月异,从传统的分业经营到提供一站式综合服务经营,从传统的资产负债管理到新兴的客户管理,从面对面的柜台服务到电子化远程服务,从单一的存贷款产品到为客户量身定制个性化和多样化的金融产品,创新贯穿于这些过程的始终。但商业银行在金融创新的同时,不可避免地遇到一定的风险,因此,必须识别和密切关注伴随创新的金融风险,加强风险管理,在防范风险的前提下支持金融创新,在创新中实现跨越式发展。     

商业银行IT技术的风险管理

经济学家罗伯特·艾略说:“技术是企业参与全球竞争的一个强有利的武器,尤其是当技术帮助企业走向市场、推出一代新产品时,其威力更加强大”。银行数据大集中,提高了银行业务的创新能力和经营管理水平,同时IT技术风险的危害范围也越来越大。防范IT技术风险、确保系统安全运行、提高软件产品质量,成为现代银行业的生命线。在新巴塞尔资本协议中,技术风险的内容包括:系统安全性(黑客攻击损失、盗窃信息),业务中断或系统失败导致的损失(硬件、软件及电信、动力输送损耗或中断)。技术缺陷的危害差错发生在细节,成功取决于系统。任何一个微小的…     

Political connections of newly privatized firms

We investigate the extent of political connections in newly privatized firms. Using a sample of 245 privatized firms headquartered in 27 developing and 14 developed countries over the period 1980 to 2002, we find that 87 firms have a politician or an ex-politician on their board of directors. Politically-connected firms are generally incorporated in major cities, are highly leveraged, and operate in regulated sectors. The likelihood of observing political connections in these firms is positively related to government residual ownership, and negatively related to foreign ownership. Political fractionalization and tenure, as well as judicial independence are also key explanatory variables. Finally, politically-connected firms exhibit a poor accounting performance compared to their non-connected counterparts.     

RFM模型在商业银行客户行为分析中的应用

随着我国社会经济的发展及外资银行的进入,商业银行之间客户争夺也愈演愈烈。如何从数量庞大的客户交易信息中发现有价值的客户是摆在商业银行面前一项难题。越来越多的商业银行不断应用新技术和新方法来创新服务,并且取得了可喜的成果和宝贵的经验。     

银行软件项目外包中的风险与对策

现代银行的业务系统构建在以软件为核心的IT系统之上。随着中国银行业的全面对外开放，激烈的市场竞争对银行的IT系统提出了更高的要求。为了应对这一挑战，一些银行将软件项目外包，以实现在专注于自身核心竞争力的同时获取前沿技术和优质服务。然而软件项目外包并不是甩包袱，项目虽然外包出去了，责任并没有外包出去。在高度复杂的现代软件生产活动中，风险无处不在。软件外包作为软件生产的新方式同样存在各种风险。在软件外包项目管理中，银行IT部门必须在软件外包的全过程中实行动态和连续的跟踪、控制，仔细分析风险的来源和特征并采取相应的风险规避策略。本文详细分析软件外包项目的各个生命周期中存在的主要风险及其对策。     

Loan-loss experience and risk-taking behavior at large commercial banks

Net loan chargeoffs and nonperforming loans reflect realized credit risks for banks. These risks arise from either external factors such as depressed economic conditions (e.g., the energy and farm belts of the United States in the 1980s) or internal factors such as poor lending decisions (including fraudulent ones) or both. For large commercial banks in 1987, we find that almost 94 percent of the variation in loss rates within regions was due to banks having different loss rates on the same types of loans. Our regression results indicate that loan-loss rates in 1987 were positively associated with loan rates, volatile funds, and loan volume from the preceding three years. In contrast, banks with adequate capital in the preceding three years tended to have lower loss rates.     

加速商业银行信用风险缓释工具的发展

信用风险缓释工具则可以将风险从资产中剥离出来,不仅有利于丰富商业银行等市场主体的信用风险管理手段,完善风险损失的市场化分担机制,而且可以促进直接债务融资市场发展     

Risk taking and taxation in complete capital markets

In general equilibrium, with complete conventional securities markets and endogenous asset supply, taxes on risk remuneration are ineffective but harmless. They do not alter the real allocation of goods or the distribution of wealth, they impose no excess burden, and, in particular, have no impact on risk taking.     

基于网络层次分析法(ANP)的商业银行风险评价研究

以类似于多元统计分析中因子分析确定主因子的方法,构建评价指标体系,运用网络层次分析法,借助Super Decisions软件解决了风险评价中指标的相对重要性权重问题,试图运用该方法对商业银行风险做出较科学、合理和准确的评估,以期提高商业银行应对风险的能力.     

商业银行IT服务外包的风险及管理措施

随着我国商业银行各项业务的蓬勃发展,信息基础设施和业务系统要不断优化升级,而银行的信息技术部门由于受资源、规模等条件的制约,难以满足快速变化的业务需求。IT服务外包作为专业化的外部资源,能够帮助银行在降低成本的同时,全面提高信息产品的科技含量,缩短新产品的开发周期,迅速提升服务水平,使商业银行能够专注于核心业务。     

The performance of privatized firms in the Czech Republic

With the growing importance of privatizations as a part of government policy, most empirical studies of these privatizations conclude that firm performance immediately improves following privatization. Privatization has been the most important part of the transition from the centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe and has a larger impact on those economies than privatizations in other countries. However, few studies have looked at the performance of firms following mass privatization. This study uses 453 separate firms (101 firms privatized in both waves for a total of 554 observations), in the first and second waves of Czech voucher privatization. Using methodology from previous studies, we find that while the overall effects from privatization are positive, the effects vary by privatization wave, size, and industry. Firms privatized in the first wave performed worse (decline in performance following privatization) than firms privatized in the second wave. We also fail to find ownership concentration or debt as an important factor in restructuring the firm.I believe that the results are consistent with two hypotheses. First economic and political structure surrounding the privatization waves plays an important part in the success of privatization. Stable environments, both political and economic, help privatized firms restructure and improve operating performance as well as attract foreign investors and capital even in less developed countries, but in transitional economies undergoing mass privatization in rapidly changing and developing economic and political environments hinder firms from restructuring and improving performance following privatization. Results are also consistent with the hypothesis that firms with a longer preparation period prior to privatization, an “implicit seasoning”, improve performance following privatization.     

风险管理:商业银行走向开放的必修课

2004年新年伊始，在国务院正式宣布决定中国银行和中国建设银行实施股份制改造后不久，国内几大国有商业银行的领导就在不同场合针对风险管理的重要性和核心作用发表了各自的看法。     

Risk taking in the domain of losses: experiments in several countries

This paper presents an experimental investigation of risk taking in the domain of losses. The experiments were conducted with students in several universities whilst introducing the rudiments of expected utility theory and risk behaviour. The results are partly compatible with expected utility theory, assuming an inflection point in the utility function over losses. They also show similarities in the risk perception of students across different countries, i.e. a useful validation of human behaviour in an international context.     

我国商业银行信贷风险管理技术探讨——一种评价贷款客户还款意愿的方法

贷款客户为达到获取贷款和逃税的目的，在分别向商业银行和税务部门提交财务报表时往往存在“夸大倾向”和“贬低倾向”。商业银行在办理贷款业务时，利用均值分析法对客户带有相反倾向的这两种报表进行分析，可以较准确地判断出客户的还款能力和还款意愿。