Property rights and groundwater management in the High Plains Aquifer

Groundwater is an important natural resource that needs to be managed dynamically. Ideally, institutions governing property rights to the groundwater of low-recharge aquifers should not discourage or disincentivize groundwater users from dynamic management. We develop an empirical model to examine whether agricultural groundwater users faced with prior appropriation property rights to groundwater in western Kansas exhibit dynamic, forward-looking behavior consistent with dynamic management. We find that although farmers are allotted a time-invariant maximum amount of groundwater that they can extract each year, they still behave in a manner consistent with dynamic management. Their groundwater extraction decisions are not significantly affected by the quantity they are authorized to extract, but are instead affected by expected future crop prices, expected future energy prices, and groundwater extraction by neighbors. Our results provide evidence that farmers manage their groundwater resource dynamically, even if their property rights do not necessarily encourage or incentivize them to do so.     

Estimating the causal effect of water scarcity on the groundwater use efficiency of rice farming in South India

There is no consensus among researchers on the influence of scarcity on common pool resource use: some suggest that scarcity leads to prudent use, whereas others suggest that it will cause over-extraction of resources. This issue is particularly of interest for developing countries, where natural resources are becoming scarce at an alarming rate. This paper investigates the causal association between water scarcity and groundwater use efficiency in a rice based cropping system in south India, where groundwater is increasingly becoming a scarce resource. Contextualization of the work is done under the premise of reported contradictions concerning the scarcity — efficiency nexus. Using a two stage approach the causality is estimated: first, farm level groundwater use efficiency (GWUE) scores are calculated using non-parametric efficiency analysis, and then these inefficiencies are linked to farm level scarcity indicators using the Inverse Probability Weighting method. Our results showed a negative causal association between farm level water scarcity and GWUE, indicating the existence of competitive appropriation behavior in the face of scarcity. Hence, policy measures to conserve groundwater should include supply enhancement to remove the threat of immediate scarcity on farm to avoid inefficient pumping in addition to demand management measures and improved governance.     

Entry and Exit Decisions with Switching Regime Excess Capacity

This paper examines how expected excess capacity fosters impediments to entry and incentives to exit. To examine this phenomenon, we apply the switching regime methods of Goldfeld and Quandt to a logit model using data from the U.S. aluminum industry over the period 1954 through 2010. The results show that both entry and exit decisions are statistically significantly affected by excess capacity. However, the correlation of entry and exit with capacity is more significant than with production. The evidence implies that excess capacity in the aluminum industry rises to be a substantial threat to entry only when the company produces ahead of demand growth. Excess capacity is also an impetus to exit during the later stage after primary aluminum production reverts to a declining trend.     

The role for policy in common pool groundwater use

We consider a model of intertemporal common pool groundwater use with substitutable irrigation technology and declining yields from groundwater stocks where pumping cost/stock externalities arise from the usual common property problem. We contrast competitive and optimal allocations and examine the role of substitutable irrigation capital vis-a-vis the effectuation of efficient methods as well as levels of resource use. A case study involving groundwater use in New Mexico illustrates the procedures and considers the efficacy of some simple policy options regarding the amelioration of inefficiencies.     

Irreversible exit decisions under mean-reverting uncertainty

Although many economic variables of interest exhibit a tendency to revert to long-run levels, mean reverting processes are rarely used in investment and disinvestment models in the literature. Previous work by Sarkar (J Econ Dyn Control 28(2):377–396, 2003), that focuses on irreversible entry decisions, showed that mean reversion has three effects on investment: (a) the “variance effect” (mean reversion reduces the long-run uncertainty and thus brings closer the critical investment level), (b) the “realized price effect” (the lower variance resulting from mean reversion makes it less likely to reach extreme high or low price levels, thereby reducing the likelihood of reaching the investment trigger) and (c) the “risk discounting effect” (mean reversion lowers the required rate of return, which affects both the project value and the value of the real option to invest). Metcalf and Hassett (J Econ Dyn Control 19(8):1471–1488, 1995) and Sarkar (J Econ Dyn Control 28(2):377–396, 2003) showed that (a) and (b) work in opposite directions, essentially canceling each other out, however the effect of (c) depends on parameter values, making the overall effect (a–c) of mean reversion on entry decisions ambiguous and parameter-dependent. In this paper, we show that as far as irreversible exit decisions are concerned, the effect of mean reversion is negative: Mean reversion unambiguously lowers the rate of irreversible disinvestment/exit for reasonable parameter values, since the mean reversion in this case only affects the value of the real option to exit and not the value resulting from (real) option exercise.     

Watershed externalities, shifting cropping patterns and groundwater depletion in Indian semi-arid villages: The effect of alternative water pricing policies

Frequent droughts and groundwater depletion are critical constraints to improving agricultural productivity in the semi-arid tropics. India has been promoting integrated watershed management in drought-prone areas to address these constraints. Watershed communities are being assisted to invest in groundwater re-charging facilities. While communities and the public bear such costs, individual farmers capture irrigation benefits. Groundwater is a free common property resource and land users hold de-facto use rights. This has accelerated private irrigation investments and depletion of aquifers resulting in iniquitous distribution of irrigation water. Power subsidies and negligible pumping costs aggravate the problem. These policy failures and low irrigation costs to farmers are displacing water-efficient crops in favor of water-intensive crops in water-scare areas. The paper reviews the village-level externalities that aggravate groundwater depletion and evaluates potential policy options to enhance local collective action in water management. Using 3SLS, an econometric crop-water productivity model is used to evaluate alternative water policy instruments. The results indicate that different types of water user charges can be introduced with modest consequences on profitability and farm incomes. If properly implemented and managed by the local communities, pro-poor policies could bring considerable sustainability benefits and also ensure enhanced equity in access to the resource.     

Bankruptcy costs,economic policy uncertainty,and FDI entry and exit

In this paper, we examine how the effect of economic policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment (FDI) entry and exit varies with the cost of bankruptcy resolution. Using a sample of bilateral FDI entry and exit for 23 countries and areas from 2004 to 2012, we find that an increase in bankruptcy costs in a country exacerbates the dampening effect of economic policy uncertainty on both FDI entry and exit. Subsample analysis reveals that the bankruptcy resolution channel only exists in high political risk countries. We also find that the bankruptcy resolution channel does not exist for foreign portfolio investment, which is consistent with real option theory. Broadly put, our contribution is at the nexus of institutional theory and FDI, as we identify the bankruptcy resolution channel through which economic policy uncertainty affects FDI entry and exit.     

Entry, exit and business cycles in a general equilibrium model

This paper studies the role of entry and exit in the short run behavior of a general equilibrium model with industry dynamics. For tractability, and to preserve potential asymmetries in the impulse responses, I focus on the transition dynamics of the economy after shocks. Entry and exit are found to be insensitive to productivity shocks of reasonable magnitude. Moreover, the dynamics of GDP are insensitive to fluctuations in entry and exit rates, and any asymmetries are negligible. As an application of the model, the paper also asks whether firing costs may interact with entry and exit to affect transition dynamics after shocks, finding that they do not.     

On the spatial nature of the groundwater pumping externality

Most existing economic analyses of optimal groundwater management use single-cell aquifer models, which assume that an aquifer responds uniformly and instantly to groundwater pumping. In this paper, we develop an economic model of groundwater management that explicitly incorporates spatial dynamic groundwater flow equations. Calibration of our model to published economic studies of specific aquifers demonstrates that existing studies generally incorrectly estimate the magnitude of the groundwater pumping externality relative to spatially explicit models. In particular, for large aquifers with surface areas of thousands of square miles, the marginal pumping externality predicted by single-cell models may be orders of magnitude less than that predicted by a spatially explicit model, even at large distances from a pumping well. Conversely, for small aquifers with areas of a few hundred square miles or less, single-cell models reasonably approximate the pumping externality. Application of single-cell models to inappropriate settings may result in misleading policy implications due to understatement of the magnitude and spatial nature of the groundwater externality.     

The Impact of Cost Changes on Industry Entry and Exit

Increases in costs may have interesting, non-obvious effects on industry entry and exit. Three cases are possible when costs rise: the competitor neutral case, in which entry decreases and exit increases, entrant favoring, in which entry and exit both increase, and incumbent favoring, in which entry and exit both decrease. The model places restrictions on which outcomes are possible given which costs rise (marginal or fixed). The model can be used to examine the impacts of cost-increasing regulation or exogenous process innovation on industry entry and exit.      

Entry and exit as a source of aggregate productivity growth in two alternative technological regimes

This paper proposes a neo-Schumpeterian model in order to discuss how the mechanisms of entry and exit contribute to industry productivity growth in alternative technological regimes. Our central hypothesis is that new firms generate gains in aggregate productivity by increasing both the productivity level and competition intensity. By assuming that firms learn about the relevant technology through a variety of sources, and by allowing a continuous flow of entry and exit into the market, our study shows that firm exit and output contraction take mostly place among less productive firms, while output expansion and entry are concentrated among the more efficient ones. The greater is the competitive pressure generated by new entrants, the higher is the expected productivity level of established firms. Overall, our analysis suggests that micro analysis is the proper complement to aggregate industry studies, as it provides a considerable insight into the causes of productivity growth.     

Endogenous Group Formation

While the rules governing the formation of groups engaging in collective action may have significant impact on group size and behavior of members, most experiments on public goods have been conducted with the subjects in exogenously fixed groups or of fixed sizes. We study endogenous formation of groups in a public‐goods provision game by allowing subjects to change groups under three sets of rules: free entry/exit, restricted entry with free exit, and free entry with restricted exit. We find that the rules governing entry and exit do have a significant impact on individual behavior and group‐level outcomes.     

Time and uncertainty in resource dilemmas: equilibrium solutions and experimental results

Most common pool resource (CPR) dilemmas share two features: they evolve over time and they are managed under environmental uncertainties. We propose a stylized dynamic model that integrates these two dimensions. A distinguishing feature of our model is that the duration of the game is determined endogenously by the users’ collective decisions. In the proposed model, if the resource stock level below which the irreversible event occurs is known in advance, then the optimal resource use coincides with a unique symmetric equilibrium that guarantees survival of the resource. As the uncertainty about the threshold level increases, resource use increases if users adopt decision strategies that quickly deplete the resource stock, but decreases if they adopt path strategies guaranteeing that the unknown threshold level is never exceeded. We show that under relatively high uncertainty about resource size, CPR users frequently implement decision strategies that terminate the game immediately. When this uncertainty is reduced, they maintain a positive resource level for longer durations.     

ENTRANTS' REPUTATION AND INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

This article analyzes entry–exit decisions in a market where reputation determines the price that firms may charge, within a rational‐expectation model of competition in a nonatomic market under heterogeneous reputations. The analysis focuses on the class of name‐switching reputational equilibria, in which a firm discards its name if and only if its reputation falls below the entrants' reputation. The main technical result is the existence of a unique steady‐state equilibrium within this class, in which the entrants' reputation is endogenous. The resulting industry dynamics is largely on agreement with the findings in the empirical literature.     

Real option as strategic technology uncertainty reduction mechanism: inter-firm investment strategy by pharmaceuticals

Whether pharmaceutical firms use the real option (RO) mechanism for strategic technology uncertainty reduction and whether the role of RO decreases when industrial technology progresses from research and development (R&D) to commercial activities in a product life cycle is discussed. The evidence confirms that pharmaceutical firms enter different in the external technology sourcing. Moreover, RO-based entry coefficients differ in sizes at different levels in the industrial value chain. The R&D entry stage is relatively greater than the clinical trials entry stage. However, contrary to the proposition that the commercial entry coefficient will be relatively lower; the results indicate that the commercial RO-entry stage appears to be relatively greater than both the R&D entry stage and the clinical trials entry stage. The overall RO-based entry in external technology sourcing appears to be a U-shaped curve along the product life cycle. The article highlights some theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

经济政策不确定性与企业退出决策:理论与实证研究

经济政策影响微观企业经营是现有研究的共识.在已有文献基础上,文章考察了经济政策不确定性对企业退出决策的影响.文章基于一个代表性企业最优退出决策的框架,构建了经济政策不确定性影响企业退出决策作用机制的理论模型,并利用1998?2011年中国工业企业微观数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.研究结果显示,经济政策不确定性通过增加市场预期收益的机制降低了企业的退出概率,即面对高水平的经济政策不确定性时,企业对未来市场形成了良好的预期,倾向于采取理性的"延迟退出"决策.进一步分析发现,企业退出决策的"延迟现象"在不同企业、行业和区域间呈现出异质性,经济政策不确定性更多地延迟了具有优越发展前景的企业、行业及区域的市场退出.从企业方面来看,这一现象在规模小、跨产业经营、出口、政府补贴的企业及创新企业中更加显著;从行业方面来看,这一现象在资金技术密集型的行业及生产率高的行业中更加显著;从区域来看,这一现象在市场化程度高的区域及经济增长快的区域更加显著.可见,政府的经济政策变动,不仅引导了企业制定理性的战略决策,而且激励了优势资源和市场的持续发展.     

Cooperative Management of Groundwater Resources in the Presence of Environmental Externalities

This paper investigates how cooperation among users can achieve a better management of groundwater in the presence of environmental externalities. Cooperation allows users to internalize the damages caused by their activities and reduce extractions. The paper develops a game theoretical framework to assess the value of cooperation in an aquifer that is divided into three sub-aquifers that are being overly exploited. Two types of externalities are modeled: first, water extractions in each sub-aquifer impact water levels in neighboring sub-aquifers (extraction externality). Second, the three sub-aquifers are also connected to an ecosystem and thus decisions in each sub-aquifer affect the health of the ecosystem (environmental externality). A cooperative game theory model is applied. The model empirically shows how the uncontrolled extractions in each sub-aquifer affects neighboring groundwater users but also cause severe impacts to the linked ecosystem. The model is tested empirically in one of the most important aquifers in Spain, the Eastern la Mancha aquifer. The results illustrate how both extraction and environmental externalities interact in affecting the likelihood of cooperation among the users. The paper estimates the value of cooperation and its stability with and without the environmental externality.     

Endogenous entry and self-selection in private value auctions: An experimental study

This paper presents the results of an experimental study of endogenous entry in first-price independent private value auctions. N potential bidders simultaneously decide whether to participate in an auction or receive a known outside option. In the second stage, entrants submit bids after learning their own private values and the number of entrants. An equilibrium model of heterogeneous risk averse bidders implies a self-selection effect, where bidding in the auction is lower with endogenous entry because only less risk averse bidders enter. This effect is confirmed by the experiment. We also observe excessive entry relative to the theoretical model.     

Entry and exit from Greek manufacturing industry: a test of the symmetry hypothesis

The paper examines the role of trade patterns in the entry and exit decisions of firms and tests the existence of symmetry between entry and exit factors. Trade patterns were found, through their entry and exit impact, to affect the structure of Greek industry rather unfavourably. Prospects seem to be bleaker within the integrated European market of the 1990s. The lack of symmetry leads to increasing concentration. The gloomy outlook is improved by the strong stand of existing, competitive firms.     

PRODUCTIVITY OR UNEXPECTED DEMAND SHOCKS: WHAT DETERMINES FIRMS' INVESTMENT AND EXIT DECISIONS?

We investigate the roles played by unexpected demand shocks, besides productivity, on firms' capital investment and exit decisions. We propose a practical approach to recover unexpected firm‐level demand shocks using inventory data. The recognition of demand shocks and inventory also improves the productivity estimation. The empirical results indicate that although productivity and demand shocks are both significant factors determining firm behavior, the former is more dominant for investment decision and the latter is more salient for firm exit. These findings confirm that unexpected demand shocks, besides persistent productivity, are important factors when analyzing capital investment and firm exit decisions.