The economics of oil,biofuel and food commodities

We study the effects on the food price of introducing biofuels as a substitute for fossil fuel in the energy market. Energy is supplied by a price-leading oil cartel and a competitive fringe of farmers producing biofuel. Biofuel production shares a finite land resource with food production. A positive relationship results between energy and food prices. We establish that the equilibrium price of food will be growing as long as the oil stock is being depleted, and beyond if demand is growing. An analysis of the effects of the productivity of land use in either the food or the biofuel sectors is carried out. It is shown that, with a highly inelastic demand for food, an increase in the productivity of land in agriculture will decrease the price of food in the short-run, only to increase it in the long-run as the stock of fossil fuel is depleted.     

冲击世界未来的能源问题：油价低迷走势及其对国际关系的影响

本文介绍了非政府机构美国外交关系委员会亚洲能源和安全研究项目组关于世界未来2 0年石油供应将持续保持低价的论点 ,这对世界石油供应短缺的预测提出了挑战。该项研究认为 ,这对美国对外关系政策和国家安全政策也构成了严峻的挑战     

Profitability and supply price in the US domestic oil industry: implications for the political economy of oil in the twenty-first century

In May 2001, the US Government's National Energy Policy DevelopmentGroup proposed to increase investment in domestic oil resourcesand to diversify further the sourcing of US oil imports by increasingproduction in new petroleum provinces. The paper argues thatboth strands of this policy are dependent upon a third, unstated,objective—to ensure that OPEC retains sufficient marketpower to prevent the sort of collapse in world oil prices thatoccurred in 1998–99. The consequences of that collapse,when the real price of US oil fell to its lowest level in 53years, are explored. Finally, it is argued that the outcomeof the crisis was a rapprochement between OPEC and the US. Itis suggested that the consensus between the US and OPEC as tothe desired range within which the world oil price should moveis likely to survive any temporary political disturbances.     

企业降价与总收益关系的新认识

随着环境的变化,企业有时候要调低产品价格。本文针对一些企业错误地应用关于降价与总收益关系的传统结论的现象,结合数学和经济学,提出了很多命题,对降价与总收益之间的关系揭示得很清楚,对于传统的需求价格弹性理论关于降价与总收益之间关系的不完全准确认识的一种修正,也是对需求价格弹性理论应用的拓展;且本文分别用图形形象地表示出降价与总收益之间的关系,结合企业在调低价格后给予一定的指导——企业降价后还要进行跟踪调查、还要根据效果采取相应措施、要关注客户需求量的变化、降价不是拍脑袋的事情,这具有一定的现实意义。     

The non-linear impact of oil price on the oil demand

ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.     

我国石油储备的必要性分析

本文从经济学供需分析的视角,采取计量的方法,分析我国石油储备建立的必要性。建立石油储备是我国国内需求不断攀升的需要,是我国国民经济稳定发展的需要,可以避免油价的大幅波动,减少石油供应中断风险,减少国家的外汇支出。     

Healthy food, unhealthy food and obesity

We examine whether the latent behavioral mechanisms embedded in two “price effects” explanations of the obesity problem are operative. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that falling food price is one likely cause of the obesity epidemic.     

我国需求侧资源促进大规模间歇可再生能源并网消纳模式

通过需求侧资源促进可再生能源并网消纳,能够降低系统对传统燃煤备用机组和输电线路扩容的需求,具有显著的经济、环保效益。为了促进需求侧资源的合理开发和利用,服务于促进整个电力系统中可再生能源的消纳,文章首先分析了我国间歇可再生能源并网消纳传统模式及存在的问题;然后,构建了面向需求侧资源业主、电网企业和发电企业三个市场主体,涉及长期规划、短期运行和需求侧资源促进可再生能源并网消纳贡献度评价的我国需求侧资源促进间歇可再生能源并网消纳的“三横三纵”模式;最后,研判我国促进间歇可再生能源并网消纳的需求侧资源关键技术。     

石油行业上市公司财务绩效综合评价研究

石油是一种不可再生的优质基础能源,其供应量的大小不仅关系到国家经济社会的发展和人民生活的质量,而且对国防安全也起到了重要的作用.由于石油行业上市公司在石油产品供应中起着重要的作用,是国家石油有效供应的微观主体,因此,如何有效地衡量石油行业上市公司整体运营绩效对于准确把握国家石油供应能力有着重要的意义.基于此,石油行业上市公司在石油产品供应中所起的作用,本文构建了石油行业上市公司财务评价指标体系,并运用因子分析模型对我国13家石油行业上市公司2010年的财务绩效进行了综合评价,得出了各上市公司财务绩效的综合排序,并从股本扩张能力、偿债能力、盈利能力、资产管理能力和成长能力五个方面探讨了其影响因素,为各石油行业上市公司财务业绩的改进及石油的可特续供应提供了科学的决策依据和方向.     

Long-run waves or short-run fluctuations – what establishes the correlation between oil and food prices?

The strong correlation between food prices and energy prices has gained much attention in the public debate. In this article, we focus on the so-called excess co-movement, which is the correlation between crude oil price and the prices of food commodities after controlling for economic activity. We use a frequency domain Granger causality test to analyse short-run and long-run relationships between crude oil prices and prices of food commodities. For important biofuel inputs like maize, soybeans, rapeseed and EU sugar, we find evidence for long-run Granger causality in particular for the period after 2007. This supports the hypothesis that the increasing biofuel production creates the link between the prices of crude oil and food commodities. However, we also find short-run Granger causality for various food commodities. This result is more in line with herd behaviour or speculation in commodity markets.     

能源利用效率的区际比较及对策分析

本文对我国能源利用效率的现实状况及其影响因素进行历史纵向分析和地区层面的横向比较,发现：能源消费结构调整、产业结构是能源消耗强度的重要影响因素;我国的能源利用效率与美日等发达国家,巴西、墨西哥等发展中国家相比都存在较大差距,改进和提高能源利用效率已成为我国的当务之急;国内能源利用效率较高的省份主要是北京、上海和广东,与其经济发展水平、能源消费结构密切相关。因此,我国应提高优质能源消费比重,推动产业结构的优化升级以优化能源消费结构;推动对外贸易结构的转变,提升我国在全球价值链分工中的地位,通过技术进步提高我国的能源利用效率和降低环境污染强度;制定有区别的区域节能目标和政策措施,既要考虑一般性影响因素,也要考虑本地区特殊影响因素,促进地区经济、能源和环境社会的协调发展。     

能源回弹效应最新研究进展:理论与方法

能源回弹效应是指能源效率提高并未达到预期节能效果的经济现象,其对能源、经济与环境系统协调与可持续发展产生了不利影响。自“Khazzoom-Brookes(K-B)假说”提出以来,学术界试图利用新古典经济学及新兴经济学分支学科理论探究回弹效应的机制,揭示回弹效应的影响因素,旨在完善回弹效应的分析框架,为回弹效应的实证检验奠定坚实的理论与方法论基础。基于此,本文首先在宏观和微观两个层面上总结了回弹效应的内涵界定,阐明了不同界定形式的适用性;然后依据回弹效应发展脉络,系统梳理了回弹效应在新古典经济学框架下的理论机制,以及在新兴经济学分支学科视角下的拓展性阐释;进而,对回弹效应的研究方法进行了归纳,探讨了不同方法的适用范围、优缺点及其修正或改进;最后,总结了能源回弹效应研究中存在的问题并对未来需要关注的方向进行了展望。     

Do Chinese executives reward for luck?

This paper examines the sensitivity of executive compensation to luck based on Chinese listed companies. To identify the causal effect, we rely on companies’ market performances driven by exogenous oil prices. We document a positive relationship between executive compensation and market performance driven by oil prices, which support the story of pay for luck. Moreover, by introducing a natural experiment China in 2015, i.e., the policy of “CEO compensation limit” in state-owned firms, we show that the shock of CEO compensation limit significantly weakens the effect of pay-for-luck. We further show that there is asymmetry in pay for luck. Specifically, when oil prices rise, executive compensation is more sensitive to good luck. In addition, the sensitivity of executives to pay-for-luck is more pronounced in firms with state-owned, higher equity concentration, and related party transaction.     

国际油价波动对经济增长的影响——基于中国的实证分析

基于1990年1月至2009年3月的月度数据,本文实证分析了我国经济增长与国际石油价格之间的长期变动关系,其特点在于,采用稳健性较强的T-Y因果检验来分析油价与经济增长的Granger因果关系,同时,运用非对称协整技术以考察油价与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究发现：①长期中油价是我国经济增长的单向Granger原因;②油价与我国经济增长之间存在非对称协整关系,油价上涨对经济活动的负面影响大于油价下跌的积极影响。基于中国经济运行的实际,本文还分析了实证结果背后的原因,并提出当前国际金融危机背景下,油价呈下跌趋势,需抓住有利时机,动用外汇储备,大力购入石油资源,建立起石油战略储备;在经济复苏、油价上涨时,可以启动石油战略储备来减少石油供应冲击,从而有助于及时保证我国经济平稳快速增长的政策建议。     

国内外能源相对价格与中国的能源效率

提高能源效率是实现经济可持续发展和减少污染排放的根本途径。基于非线性平滑转换模型的分析显示,能源价格对能源效率的影响机制存在非线性的平滑转换。机制转换的主要引导因素是国内外能源价格指数的相对变化,机制转换的阈值近似为1。目前我国能源价格对能源效率的影响比较接近高效机制运行,增强能源价格的灵活性,可以实现能源消费者的自我选择,是提高我国能源效率的可行选择。