On financial contracting: An analysis of bond covenants

With risky debt outstanding, stockholder actions aimed at maximizing the value of their equity claim can result in a reduction in the value of both the firm and its outstanding bonds. We examine ways in which debt contracts are written to control the conflict between bondholders and stockholders. We find that extensive direct restrictions on production/investment policy would be expensive to employ and are not observed. However, dividend and financing policy restrictions are written to give stockholders incentives to follow a firm-value-maximizing production/investment policy. Taking into account how contracts control the bondholder- stockholder conflict leads to a number of testable propositions about the specific form of the debt contract that a firm will choose.     

Financial covenants in the markets for public and private debt

The public debt contracts surveyed in Whittred and Zimmer (1986) and Stokes and Tay (1988) were issued between 1962 and 1985, and there has been significant macroeconomic, institutional and regulatory change since that time. We analyse a sample of 36 recently issued Australian public debt contracts and document a considerable change in the ‘package’ of financial covenants used in public debt contracts. The covenant package is now less restrictive and the types of covenants used are more heterogenous. We also survey a sample of 41 recent Australian private debt contracts. These contracts contain a greater number, variety and, collectively, more restrictive set of financial covenants than those public debt contracts we survey, supporting theory which suggests that covenant restrictive and renegotiation–flexible contracts are more suited to borrowers contracting with financial intermediaries in private debt markets. We also note differences in accounting rules associated with financial covenants used in these private debt contracts.     

The effect of liquidity and solvency risk on the inclusion of bond covenants

Studies have analyzed the impact of firm and issue characteristics but not liquidity and solvency components of financial distress on the use of bond covenants. Using a comprehensive database of corporate bonds from 2001 to 2012, we find that firm liquidity, measured by standardized Lambda, has a negative statistical and economic impact on the inclusion of all categories and sub-categories of restrictive bond covenants. Developed from financial statement information by Emery and Lyons (1991), Lambda is designed as a coverage ratio that, under certain distribution assumptions, maps into the probability of a firm being unable to pay its short-term bills. The strongest solvency proxy is the 10-year credit default swap (CDS) spread which is significant across the categories and sub-categories for investment and payment covenants, weakly significant for the subordinated debt sub-category of the subsequent financing covenant, but strongly significant for the control poison put sub-category of event covenants. This evidence supports a model that uses SLambda as a proxy for liquidity risk and the 10-year CDS spread as a proxy for solvency risk. The liquidity/covenant relationship is dampened when firms have access to commercial paper funding or bank loans. However, during the recent financial crisis liquidity event this liquidity/covenant relationship was enhanced especially for firms which were dependent on commercial paper during this time when the commercial paper market was deteriorating.     

Evidence on the effect of bond covenants and management compensation contracts on the choice of accounting techniques: The case of the depreciation switch-back

Provisions of bond indenture agreements and management compensation contracts are examined to derive testable implications concerning management's incentives to choose among alternative accounting techniques. The hypotheses are subjected to empirical examination by investigating the voluntary change from accelerated to straight-line depreciation for financial reporting purposes only. The methodology utilized incorporates an expectations model of accounting earnings in an attempt to separate out of the effects of earnings announcements from accounting change announcements which are often concurrent. The evidence from both price and non-price data is not consistent with the general hypothesis that bond covenants and management compensation contracts are important determinants of the decision to change depreciation techniques. Five potential explanations for the results are offered.     

Conditional conservatism and the yield spread of corporate bond issues

Building upon recent research which indicates that debt markets rather than equity markets shape financial reporting, this study examines how conditionally conservative financial reporting relates to the yield spread of corporate bond issues. Our findings suggest that the debt contract efficiency/information costs view of conditional conservatism, documented in private debt contracts, does not generalize to public debt contracts. Instead, a debt contract renegotiation costs perspective seems to better capture the dynamics of the public debt markets, with conditionally conservative reporting being associated with higher yield spread of corporate bond issues. Additional subsample test results indicate that the association between conditional conservatism and bond yield spreads is more pronounced in non-investment grade bonds, for bond issuers with more financial distress, and for bonds that are issued before the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act. This study fills a gap in the conservatism literature, which focuses primarily on equity or private bank loan markets with traditional debt contract efficiency/information costs view.     

Empirical investigation of securitisation drivers: the case of Italian banks

This paper explores the determinants of securitisation by Italian banks over the period 1999–2006, investigating the funding, specialisation, and regulatory capital arbitrage hypotheses. According to our evidence, when we consider all securitisation types together, Italian banks seem to have securitised out of funding motives, to diversify and optimise their available funding channels. When we separately consider securitisations backed by residential mortgages and those backed by non-performing loans, we find that the main factors affecting the former type of securitisation are the need for funding and capital arbitrage motivation, whereas the latter appear to have been affected to a lesser extent by a need for funding and to have also been slightly conditioned by a desire to specialise.     

Redefining the issues of risk and public acceptance: The social viability of technology

A conceptual framework is proposed within which the notion of risk as normally used in risk assessment (RA) could be enlarged in line with the real substance of social issues of technology policy, to help avoid RA's threatened irrelevance to social decisionmaking. It is argued that the frequent organizational incoherence and thus the unviability of modern technology arises from ‘social alienation’ between the innovation-commitment phase and the implementation of the technology in society. The roles of technical elites and of particular concepts of technology in this alienation are emphasized.     

Effects of early bond refundings: An empirical investigation of security returns

This paper examines bond-for-bond refundings and their effects on stock returns. Refundings can affect the reported income, cash flows (including taxes), dividend constraints and financial ratios of firms. For a sample of 36 NYSE and ASE firms that performed refundings between 1971 and 1980, stock returns were significantly higher than predicted (only) around the release of the quarterly earnings announcement that included the refunding's effects. While the refundings were found to have many characteristics that were hypothesized to benefit shareholders, only the change in earnings per share was found to be associated with the prediction errors. Further, there appears to be no refunding-related information released in the quarterly earnings announcement, except for the refunding gain. These results imply that a portfolio of refunding firms can be created in advance of the quarterly earnings announcement that will generate abnormal returns around the earnings announcement. Because trading rules are inconsistent with the concept of an efficient capital market, these results constitute an anomaly.     

Maturity structure of public debt and expected bond returns

The relevancy of changes in maturity structure is tested using a disaggregated measure of the maturity composition of government debt. Tests based on predictions from the market efficiency and rational expectations theories find evidence that maturity composition occasionally helps to predict future excess returns. The maturity composition is also found to be correlated with the term premium and future changes in the short rate. The evidence supports the claim that bonds with all the same characteristics except maturity are not perfect substitutes.     

Dealer intermediation and price behavior in the aftermarket for new bond issues

Municipal bonds trade in decentralized broker-dealer markets, and are underpriced when issued, but unlike equities the average price rises slowly over several days. Newly issued municipal bonds have high levels of price dispersion and the average price rises because the mix of trade sizes changes over time. While large trades occur close to the reoffering price, small trades occur between the reoffering price to as much as 5% above the reoffering price. Using a mixed-distribution model we quantify the losses uninformed traders or issuers give up to broker-dealers.     

On the distribution of government bond returns: evidence from the EMU

This paper assesses the statistical distribution of daily EMU bond returns for the period 1999–2012. The normality assumption is tested and clearly rejected for all European countries and maturities. Although skewness plays a minor role in this departure from normality, it is mainly due to the excess kurtosis of bond returns. Therefore, we test the Student’s t, skewed Student’s t, and stable distribution that exhibit this feature. The financial crisis leads to a structural break in the time series. We account for this and retest the alternative distributions. A value-at-risk application underlines the importance of our findings for investors. In sum, excess kurtosis in bond returns is essential for risk management, and the stable distribution captures this feature best.     

Measuring public value: a conceptual and applied contribution to the debate

Countries facing austerity measures need to create public value. Academics and practitioners have been discussing the ways in which public value can be created, managed and measured. This paper contributes to this conversation by proposing a public value measurement model. An Italian case study is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the model and the organizational implications when public value measures are available to public sector managers, politicians and the public.     

Wealth effects of convertible bond and convertible preference share issues: An empirical analysis of the UK market

We examine the wealth effects of the announcement of issues of different types of convertible securities by UK firms and find significant negative effects on shareholder wealth. We however, also find that when the sample is partitioned by method of issue, privately placed convertible bonds, in contrast to previous research, exhibit a negative impact on firm wealth. Further, we also find negative wealth effects for firms that issue convertible securities to refinance previous debt or finance specific acquisitions. However announcements of convertible bond issues, for the purpose of financing capital expenditure schemes, show significant positive wealth effects. Finally, we find mixed support for testable predictions of the main theoretical models relating cross-sectional firm characteristics of convertible bond issuers to abnormal returns.     

New development: Flood events continue to raise issues of public sector accountability

Climate change scientists argue that there is a link between climate change and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The catastrophic consequences of these natural disasters on human life, agriculture and infrastructure calls into question the role and responsibility of governments in managing such events. Mixed messages are being communicated by governments to the public from one extreme advocating the provision of as much assistance as required to rebuild communities following an extreme weather event, to policies being developed encouraging communities to become more resilient. Seemingly, there is no contradiction in following both approaches, however, it is currently not clear the extent of responsibility and accountability for protecting its citizens versus the onus on the community to defend itself from natural disasters. This paper explores these themes from the perspective of local government in relation to the devastating floods that hit Victoria, Australia in 2010/11.     

Stock Price Dynamics and Firm Size: An Empirical investigation

We show that after controlling for the effects of bid-ask spreads and trading volume the conditional future volatility of equity returns is negatively related to the level of stock price. This “leverage effect” is stronger for small, as compared to large, firms. We also document that while the essential characteristics of the relations between stock price dynamics and firm size are stable, the strengths of the relationships appear to change over time.     

The value of convexity: a theoretical and empirical investigation

We explore from a theoretical and an empirical perspective the value of convexity in the US Treasury market. We present a quasi-model-agnostic approach that is rooted in the existence of some affine model capable of recovering with good accuracy the market yield curve and covariance matrix. As we show, at least one such model exists, and this is all we require for our results to hold. We show that, as a consequence, the theoretical ‘value of convexity’ purely depends on observable features of the yield curve, and on statistically determinable yield volatilities. We then address the question of whether the theoretical convexity is indeed correctly reflected in the shape of the yield curve. We present empirical results about the predictive power of a strategy based on the discrepancies between the theoretical and the predicted value of convexity. By looking at 30 years of data, we find that neither the strategy of being systematically long or short convexity (and immunized against ‘level’ and ‘slope’ risk) would have been profitable. However, a conditional strategy that looks at the difference between the ‘implied’ and the statistically estimated value of convexity would have identified extended periods during which the proposed approach would have delivered attractive Sharpe Ratios.     

On the static efficiency of secondary bond markets

The major strand of finance literature understands market efficiency through the market's ability to process information into prices. Another strand of literature refers to the economists’ usual sense of the word, i.e., that markets ensure that resources are allocated to their most profitable expected use, and provide services at the lowest cost. This paper, deploying the second definition, suggests a concept of static efficiency, and claims this can also be seen as a measure of market quality. The paper develops a measure of qualitative static efficiency for bond markets built on four indicators: transparency, number of maturities and issuers, spread, and liquidity. Indicators of market quality should be easily accessible, and permit international and inter-temporal comparison. Using Nordic markets as case studies, we show that these markets became more efficient during the 1990's, but that transparency of efficiency remains a problem. A number of measurement problems with the static efficiency indicators are discussed, as well as interdependence issues. The paper concludes with comments on future applications of the static efficiency measure.