Aid Effectiveness,Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries

Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery. JEL no. F34, F35, O11, O19     

External Shocks and the HIPC Initiative: Impacts on Growth and Poverty in Africa

Abstract: The paper uses a simple macroeconomic model to estimate the impact of debt relief and terms of trade shocks on growth and poverty in African countries. For the 18 heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) that reached the enhanced HIPC decision point by end‐December 2000, the basic quantitative findings are that HIPC debt relief has boosted economic growth in these countries by an average of 2.9 percent per annum and that the computed result of this increase in growth is a reduction in poverty by an average of 2.2 percent per annum. However, the paper shows that recent deteriorations in the terms of trade have counter‐balanced these positive effects by lowering growth by an average of 2.0 percent per annum and by increasing poverty by an average of 1.3 percent per annum. Clearly, much of the positive impact emanating from the HIPC Initiative has been eroded due to recent deteriorations in the terms of trade. The paper also estimates the net effect on growth and poverty of the recently agreed 100 percent multilateral debt relief. This is predicted to boost economic growth by an average of 5 percent per annum and reduce poverty by about 5.3 percent per annum for the group of all African HIPCs. The paper concludes that 100 percent debt relief is crucial for Africa, but that more aid and policies need to be focused on a long‐term development strategy that fosters the necessary structural transformation.     

Beyond HIPC: What are the Prospects for Debt Sustainability?

Abstract: The pronouncement by the G‐8 Summit at Gleneagles in July 2005 on debt cancellation under the HIPC Initiative, affirmed by the G‐8 Ministers of Finance in Washington in September, should signal the beginning of debt relief for the world's heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC), mostly African. It is expected that debt cancellation should return the beneficiary countries to debt sustainability and afford their governments the fiscal space to invest in basic infrastructure and social services. Countries could significantly enhance their prospects for maintaining debt sustainability mainly by adopting debt management strategies that de‐emphasize excessive borrowing, checking the expansion of unproductive public sector activities and the associated fiscal deficits, financial restructuring to reduce the bias against autonomous capital flows, and taking deliberate actions to expand exports.     

Debt Relief and Social Services Expenditure: The African Experience, 1989–2003

Abstract: In June 2005 the G8 proposed the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) with the goal of canceling all International Development Association (IDA), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and African Development Fund (ADF) debt claims on countries that have reached, or will eventually reach, the completion point under the enhanced Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. The objective is to help HIPC make progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. The G8 initiative is worth $40 billion and would benefit 14 African countries immediately. It has the potential of freeing more resources than any past debt relief program. Between the 1988 Paris Club debt relief program up to 2003, Africa earned debt relief worth $65 billion. We take a critical look at the chances that the G8 initiative will reach its goals by empirically investigating the extent to which past debt relief granted to African countries did translate into a larger share of resources being allocated to social services expenditure. Our estimates indicate that debt relief provided to Africa between 1989 and 2003 had a positive impact on the share of a country's resources allocated either to public education or health in countries which have improved their institutions. Consequently, donors must address the need for institutional change as they grant debt relief to HIPC if the latter are to channel the freed‐up resources to the social sector.     

State Capacity and the Economic History of Colonial India

The paper re-examines the role of the state in economic change in colonial India (1757–1947), by paying attention to fiscal capacity. This capacity was larger than that of the precolonial states, and based on different foundations, such as centralisation of finance and securitisation of public debt. Nevertheless, the effort to raise finance hit a barrier, which had owed to the separation of debt from revenue operations. Did the barrier matter? By keeping markets open, the colonial state served private enterprise, but its failure to sustain growth in fiscal capacity compromised public investment in infrastructure and social development.     

Foreign aid,government behaviour,and fiscal policy in Papua New Guinea

The paper explores a number of long standing questions surrounding how foreign aid has influenced the fiscal behaviour of the PNG Government. This includes whether grant aid has encouraged the PNG government to be less fiscally responsible and accumulate higher levels of foreign debt; whether grant aid has tended to lower the PNG government's domestic revenue raising efforts; whether grant aid has drawn government expenditures away from key service delivery sectors; and whether budget support and project and program aid have had differential effects with respect to any of the foregoing questions. The analysis reveals several important insights regarding the interplay between foreign aid and public sector fiscal behaviour including evidence that grant aid has been an important source of debt reduction during this period. However, grant aid has tended to erode the domestic tax base, which has limited the government's ability to increase aggregate expenditure levels. Evidence is also found that suggests a significant portion of budget support was spent on key development sectors, although it also undermined domestic revenue collection. A number of policy implications follow.     

The External Debt‐Servicing Constraint and Public‐Expenditure Composition in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: In the light of the current global financial and economic crises, how would governments in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) allocate their budgets across sectors in response to a binding debt‐servicing constraint? Within a framework of public‐expenditure choice, the present paper estimates constraint‐consistent debt‐service ratios and employs them in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression involving a five‐year panel for up to 35 African countries over 1975–94, a period preceding the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiatives. While observed debt service is found to be a poor predictor of expenditure allocation, constraining debt servicing shifts spending away from the social sector, with similar impacts on education and health. The implied partial elasticity of the sector's expenditure share with respect to debt is estimated at 1.5, the highest responsiveness by far among all the explanatory variables considered, including external aid. Thus, if the social sector is to be protected, sufficient debt relief for SSA countries should be pursued.     

AID AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA: THE DEBATE, THE CHALLENGES AND THE WAY FORWARD

The article discusses the emerging literature and debates on aid, within the context of expected increases in aid flows to the continent. The trends in ODA flows indicate a reversal in aid flows to the continent since 2000, with subsequent increases in aid intensity and dependence. Although the more recent literature on aid is doubtful if aid only spurs growth in a in a good policy environment, the aid‐institutional debate indicates a clear aid‐institutional paradox, especially relating to the macroeconomic effects, the fiscal response, the absorptive capacity and the good governance aid debates. The literature further indicates that aid could serve as a barrier to vulnerable societies. From the donors' perspective, it is evident that quantity of aid does not imply quality and that the ultimate responsibility lies with recipient governments to ensure more efficient absorption of aid.     

Debt relief and fiscal sustainability

In this paper I analyze the relationship between fiscal policy,aggregate public sector debt sustainability, and debt relief. I develop a methodology to compute the fiscal policy path that is compatible with aggregate debt sustainability in the post-HIPC era. The model explicitly considers the role of domestic debt and quantifies the extent to which future debt sustainability depends on the availability of concessional loans at subsidized interest rates. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest net present value of public external debt to GDP ratios. JEL no. F3, F34, F35.     

Aid and Public Finance: A Missing Link?

The present consensus in the literature is that foreign aid does not have the desired positive effects on economic development. This is due in great part to poorly performing public institutions in recipient countries. In order to understand better the causes of this undesirable phenomenon, we examine the relationship between multilateral foreign aid flows and recipient countries’ public finance systems. We construct a new indicator to assess the quality of public finance, the Public Finance Institutions Quality (PFIQ) Index. For our panel of 86 countries, we find that multilateral aid flows have a negative impact on recipient country PFIQ score, whereas exogenous improvements in public finance seem to attract more aid. These results provide insight into the “black box” of governance: failure to turn aid receipts into desired results seems partly attributable to multilateral aid, in its present form, not being suited to improving a country’s public finance institutions. However, international donor organisations do seem to reward exogenous improvements in quality and reliability of public finance systems.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies

We analyse the relationship between public debt, economic growth and inflation in a group of 52 African economies between 1950 and 2012. The results indicate that the limits of public debt are negatively related to economic growth and exhibit, from a given level of debt, an inverted U behaviour regarding the relationship between economic growth and public debt. Briefly, the high levels of public debt are coincident with reduced rates of economic growth and rising levels of inflation. Our results for three specific geographical areas resemble those of the overall analysis, despite some differences. In North African countries, the growth rates of the gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation also show an inverted U behaviour as the ratio of public debt/GDP increases. The highest rate of economic growth is recorded when the ratio of public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP and corresponds to an average inflation rate of 5.33%. An identical behaviour of the GDP growth rates and inflation also appears in Sub‐Saharan countries until the third interval (60–90%). However, the highest growth rate of the GDP and GDP per capita is registered when the public debt/GDP ratio is in the second interval (30–60%). For the countries of the Southern Africa Development Community, the highest average rate of economic growth (6.8%) is similar to North African countries, when the ratio public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP, with an average inflation rate of 11%. A number of robustness analyses were performed and the great majority of them confirm the general analysis.     

Foreign aid and fiscal response: Does aid disaggregation matter?

Foreign Aid and Fiscal Response: Does Aid Disaggregation Matter? —The present paper constitutes a new approach in the aid-effectiveness literature in two important respects. Firstly, it develops and then tests a model of foreign aid and fiscal response, which, for the first time in the aid-effectiveness literature, embraces the aiddisaggregation issue; we do this by disaggregating aid flows into three main components, namely programme aid, project aid and technical assistance, and by subsequently estimating our model for two countries, India and Kenya. Secondly, on the modelling front, we improve on earlier work in this area by using an appropriate specification for the recipient-country government’s welfare function, with significant positive implications for the empirical findings obtained. This new approach adopted in the paper and the empirical results obtained may have important implications for a better understanding of the fiscal impact of aid in aid-recipient countries.     

Sustainability of public debt: evidence from Japan before the Second World War1

Japan defaulted on its public debt after the Second World War. This article addresses the question of how Japan lost its ability to sustain its public debt. We explore the sustainability of public debt in Japan before the War. We conduct statistical tests for the relationship between public debt and primary fiscal balance, and find that Japanese public debt was sustainable until 1931, and unsustainable in and after 1932. Narrative modes of analysis indicate that Japan lost its fiscal discipline because of the military's effective veto over budgetary processes and because of the absence of pressure for sound fiscal policy from international financial markets.     

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE FISCAL REACTION FUNCTION FOR SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST AND FUTURE POLICY APPLICATIONS

How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating this question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (ordinary least squares, threshold autoregressive, state‐space modelling and vector error‐correction model). This paper finds that since 1946, the South African government has run sustainable fiscal policy by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, this paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.     

Fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union: Credible inflation targets or monetized debt?

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: Credible Inflation Targets or Monetized Debt? —The paper examines the interrelationship between fiscal and monetary policy in a two-country monetary union. The worst scenario occurs when an independent central bank sets the nominal interest rate and responds to rising government debt/GDP ratios by monetization. The result is high inflation, high debt/GDP ratios and a large public sector. Government debt and inflation are contained if the governments bear sole responsibility for solvency, but the public sector remains excessively large. The best scenario occurs if the central bank removes the incentive for the governments to engineer surprise inflation by credible inflation targeting.     

Sub-Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?

The study investigated public debt sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by testing the reaction of the primary balance to positive and negative shocks in public debts in a panel of 45 SSA countries. The study adopts the innovative nonlinear fiscal reaction function and the dynamic panel threshold model to account for the potential asymmetric phenomenon in the public debt series. In line with extant studies, the study found that public debts in SSA are weakly sustainable and there is a highly procyclical fiscal policy bias in SSA countries, particularly in resource-rich countries, indicating that governments' fiscal policy responses are expansionary during economic upturns and contractionary during recessions, which may aggravate recessions and worsen debt situations across SSA. For robustness, the study compares the results with emerging and developed economies. The results indicate that in advanced economies, public debt is sustainable and that fiscal policy response is countercyclical. The research and policy implications are discussed.     

Fiscal Decentralization or Centralization: Diverging Paths of Chinese Cities

If fiscal decentralization promotes growth, why do some regions decentralize more than others? This article identifies the growing divergence of fiscal centralization among Chinese cities and explains it in a public finance framework. It argues that fiscal decentralization and its economy‐liberalizing effect entail significant short‐term fiscal risk. The more a locality relies on uncompetitive business ownership for fiscal revenue, the less likely fiscal decentralization is to occur. This article compiles a dataset of 20 provincial capitals between 1999 and 2016 to test for the connection between a city's tax base and its fiscal centralization level. It then pairs two “most similar” cities to trace how fiscal security concerns drove their fiscal and economic policies apart. This article adds a micro‐level perspective to the literature on fiscal federalism. By pointing out the fiscal constraints confronting local governments, it offers a new angle to understand the different growth paths of Chinese cities.     

Relief and reform in third world debt

This paper reviews the debt problem and argues that there is a need for wider financial reforms as well as debt relief. North-South dispute is best resolved through the development of agreed rules governing both debt relief and balance-of-payments financing for exogenously created shocks. The poorest countries require both debt relief and increased finance. Improved compensatory finance, more liberal supplementary finance and conditional repayment arrangements are recommended for all. The terms of new arrangements should be applied retroactively as debt relief. A new issue of special drawing rights is advocated for the financing of these relief and reform proposals.     

The External Debt Problem in Africa: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Morocco

In this paper, the African external debt problem with particular reference to Nigeria and Morocco is extensively analysed, and statistical indicators show that it is severe and has adverse effects on investment. The analysis also finds that fiscal expenditure, balance of payments and global interest rate are the crucial factors in explaining the accumulation of external debt in the two countries. Although the problem tends to exhibit some differences in characteristics between the two countries, the fact remains that they both belong to the same category of highly indebted countries. It is therefore necessary they embark on a rapid programme of privatization aimed at reducing fiscal expenditure, and a sustained export promotion programme to improve balance of payments. At the same time, both countries should restructure and develop their capital markets to reduce exposure to the vagaries of global interest rate. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank could also assist by modifying the International debt relief programme (HIPC Initiative) to accommodate both countries. Cet article étudie en détail le problème de la dette extérieure de l’Afrique, en se centrant en particulier sur les exemples du Nigeria et du Maroc. Les indicateurs statistiques montrent que le problème est grave et a des effets négatifs sur l’investissement. L’analyse a également mis à jour le fait que les dépenses fiscales, la balance des paiements et le taux d’intérÁt global sont des facteurs essentiels dans l’accumulation de la dette extérieure dans ces deux pays. Si le problème présente des caractéristiques différentes dans les deux pays, le fait n’en demeure pas moins qu’ils appartiennent tous deux à la mÁme catégorie des pays très endettés. Il leur est donc nécessaire d’engager rapidement un programme de privatisation visant à réduire les dépenses fiscales, et un programme intensif de promotion des exportations pour améliorer la balance des paiements. Dans le mÁme temps, les deux pays doivent restructurer et développer leurs marchés financiers pour réduire leur exposition aux caprices des taux d’intérÁt mondiaux. Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) et la Banque mondiale pourraient également les aider en modifiant le programme international d’allégement de dette (Initiative PPTE) de manière à ce qu’ils puissent en profiter.     

Assessment of Local Public Finance Performance in China When Undesirable Fiscal Phenomena are Taken into Account

Making use of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique and taking undesirable fiscal phenomena into account, this paper comprehensively quantifies the public finance performance of local governments in China during the course of fiscal decentralization reform. The introduction of undesirable fiscal outcomes into this assessment makes it possible to identify meaningful and informative characteristics of local public finance performance in China. When reforms are first implemented, local public financial performance improves because undesirable fiscal phenomena have not yet become too serious. The tax sharing system reform did not work well in its early stages, and negatively impacted public expenditure efficiency. The reform started to play a substantial role between 2001 and 2005, when local governments experienced better public finance performance. Corresponding to the deterioration of the financial sector in recent years, local public financial performance worsened after 2007. Further reform of the current fiscal and taxation system is necessary in China, to ensure a brighter future for the nation.