Impacts of agricultural price support policy on price variability and welfare: Evidence from China's soybean market

China is a predominant soybean importer; thus, its domestic soybean policies have a large impact on world soybean market dynamics. We develop the first aggregate structural econometric model of China's soybean market and link it to the rest of the world (ROW), which allows us to analyze the impacts of China's soybean price support policy that ran from 2008 to 2013. We investigate the impacts of China's policy on the variability of their domestic and world soybean prices, and adopt a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the effects on distributional and aggregate welfare. Our results indicate: (a) after China's soybean price support policy, price transmission elasticity decreases, China's domestic price variability decreases, and world price variability increases; (b) China's producer surplus increases, consumer surplus decreases and the net welfare change in their domestic market is negative; and (c) although soybean exporting countries in the ROW experience significant welfare gains, the world net welfare change is negative.     

Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty

The size of the insurance and wealth effects of a change in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for arable crops is estimated. The impact of price uncertainty is accounted for in the specific decision-making structure of the European Union (EU) arable crop producers under nonlinear mean-variance risk preferences. A system of output supply, input demand, and land allocation equations is estimated on a sample of Italian specialized arable crop farms. The simulation of the impact of the recent reforms confirms that farmers' output responses are consistently affected by the size of the insurance and wealth effects.     

Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis

The importance of free trade agreements (FTAs) has been increasing as such agreements help reduce barriers to trade. This paper estimates the agricultural trade creation and export diversion effects of Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs) at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood (PPML) estimator. It includes 24 of Australia’s major trading partner countries comprising FTA and non‐FTA members and covers 22 years from 1996 to 2017. The heteroscedasticity robust regression error specification test (RESET) confirms the relevance of PPML over the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. Results showed that China–Australia, Korea–Australia, Australia–USA and Japan–Australia have larger trade creation effects in the agricultural sector. At the commodity level, variation in trade creation effects is estimated from the different trade agreements. Among the selected commodities, the larger effects were generated in trade in sugar and wine by the implementation of the majority of the trade agreements. Overall, the trade creation was greater than the export diversion of the FTAs. The findings of the study have implications for Australia’s future trade agreements.     

论农业保险制度的政策性与民生性

从农业保险制度政策性特点来看,农业保险制度具有较强的民生性特征。政策性农业保险制度的民生需求主要体现在：农业自然风险非常规性及农业产业结构升级渴望农业保险;农业保险规避风险的有效性及政府的重视等方面。论文认为应根据农业保险的民生特征定位我国农业保险制度的发展方向。     

The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions

Incentives in agriculture are highly distorted. It has long been argued that these distortions were a key explanation for differences in supply and productivity across countries, but the empirical evidence is limited. We revisit this issue using data on policy distortions across 63 countries for the period 1961–2011. We estimate the effects of differential changes in agricultural distortions across countries on supply and productivity. We highlight concerns in our analysis and previous work about endogeneity that biases the estimated effect downward—countries that lose comparative advantage are likely to increase support for agriculture. We address these concerns by including country and region-time fixed effects, along with a rich set of controls. Overall, we find evidence that enhanced incentives through policy changes can increase the rate of production growth, with about half of the increase due to productivity increases. This result is strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa where anti-agricultural policies on exports were reduced and in Europe where pro-agricultural policies on imports were reduced, driven largely by external pressure. Endogeneity appears to be strongest in Asia where countries have followed the typical pattern of raising support for agriculture during industrialization due to a rising farm-urban income gap.     

On the foundation of agricultural policy research in the United States

This paper identifies three scientific research programs in agricultural economics. The farm management approach (1870-1933), the farm problem approach (1933-1982) and the domestic and global welfare approach (1982-). In respect to agricultural policy research two competitive research programs developed out of the farm crisis of the 1920s. One program argued for government intervention in agriculture. The other argued for stability in the general economy. The former program degenerated during the 1970s because of countervailing empirical evidence and a change in the understanding of positive economics. The latter program stayed progressive by adding the international dimension and by applying welfare economic analysis. Two other important factors influenced the development of agricultural policy. First, the unique institutional set up of the land grant system in which agricultural economics was founded as an applied science with a bias to help farmers. Second, the convergence of agricultural economics towards general economics that shifted the approach from applied to basic.     

Impact of de-coupling agricultural support on dairy investment and milk production volume in Finland

This study analyses the impacts of de-coupling of agricultural support from production in Finland. A dynamic agricultural sector model, which includes 17 production regions and endogenous investments and technical change, is used in the analysis. Investment in different production techniques is dependent on the relative profitability and the spread of each technique in the population of heterogeneous farms. There are relatively few large farms which use efficient production techniques in Finland. De-coupling weakens the incentive for investment in dairy production and causes a temporary but significant slow down in dairy investments and technical change. Consequently, de-coupling is likely to result in a significant drop in milk and beef production in the next 10-20 year period if no corrective measures are taken in agricultural policy in less-favoured areas such as Finland. However, a slow recovery of investment and output levels are expected in the long run.     

企业准备金的所得税政策比较研究

如何采取有效的税收政策来保证企业既能及时足额地提取准备金增强其抵御风险能力,又不可能利用准备金政策进行利润操纵或避税,是企业所得税政策研究的核心问题。通过对不同性质企业和不同国家的准备金所得税政策以及税收政策与会计政策进行比较研究,提出要从5个方面对我国企业准备金所得税政策进行改革：建立专项准备金与一般准备金相配合的企业准备金税收待遇模式;制定统一而规范的企业准备金税收政策体系;企业准备金税收政策要与其会计政策相互协调配合;建立准备金信息披露机制,加强准备金外部审计和检查审核;改革企业呆账认定办法,简化呆账核销程序。     

Contract theory and agricultural policy analysis: a discussion and survey of recent developments*

This paper surveys some recent developments in contract theory and illustrates how this theory might be useful for conceptualising policy issues related to vertical coordination and contracting in the agro‐food industry. The article begins by surveying contract theory to identify key economic distortions that can potentially justify government involvement. Next, the general ingredients of agricultural contracts that are most likely to create inefficiencies are discussed. Finally, controversial aspects of real‐world agricultural contracts are highlighted and lessons from the theory are used to determine whether government intervention is justified. Actual legislation that has been proposed in the USA is analysed where appropriate and topics that await further research are also discussed.     

From fork to farm: Impacts of more sustainable diets in the EU-27 on the agricultural sector

The implications of dietary changes for the environment and for human health are well documented, but the impacts on the agricultural sector are less well researched. We fill this gap by specifying scenarios in which European consumers' diets approximate the EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations to varying degrees and estimate the effects on agricultural production, incomes and emissions using an agro-economic modelling framework. The combination of different models allows for a detailed assessment of consequences for the agricultural sector from the global through European NUTS2 level to the farm level at different time scales. Shifting European consumption towards the EAT-Lancet recommendations leads to decreasing production of animal-based products, while production of fruits and vegetables increases sharply. The results indicate that the agricultural sector could benefit from a dietary shift, though the results are mixed at country, regional and farm levels. In particular, countries and regions that are highly specialised in animal farming are likely to lose income—at least in the short run—while regions with higher shares of vegetable and fruit farms can expect income gains. In Germany, pig and poultry farms may experience losses of up to 34% of their income, whereas farms with a high share of vegetables could gain more than 30% in income. Our results have implications for the policies to assist these extensive structural adjustments in response to widespread dietary changes.     

Domestic and trade impacts of foot‐and‐mouth disease on the Australian beef industry

Australia is the sixth largest producer of beef and the second largest exporter of beef. Average beef exports from Australia are approximately 65 per cent of the total amount of beef produced, about 1.3 million tonnes. Australia is particularly vulnerable to diseases that are not endemic to the country and could close or disrupt its export markets for beef. In this study, we construct a bioeconomic optimisation model of the Australian beef industry that captures production and consumption decisions, domestically and internationally, and the impacts on the beef industry of a potentially catastrophic disease, foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD). This study analyses localised to large‐scale outbreaks and suggests that changes in economic surplus because of FMD range from a positive net gain of $57 million to a net loss of $1.7 billion, with impacts on producers and consumers varying depending on the location of the outbreak, control levels and the nature of any trade ban.     

The many dimensions of historic preservation value: national and local designation,internal and external policy effects

This analysis examines the internal and external policy effects of national and local register programmes for historic preservation. Robust hedonic pricing models are crucial to informing policy proposals and understanding how property markets relate to urban heritage. Estimating a repeat-sales hedonic model with neighbourhood trends and spatial mixed models, novel to this literature, offers a marked improvement in terms of jointly identifying internal and external policy effects, comparing national and local designations, separating policy from heritage effects and estimating models robust to spatial dependence and trends in hedonic prices. Historic designation variables, while often individually insignificant in the model, are always jointly significant in explaining varying appreciation rates. Local districts exhibit no consistent price impacts across the models. Being located inside a national district confers a price premium that increases over time in the preferred model specification, while prices fall in national districts’ buffers after designation. The sensitivity of results to model specification raises questions about alternative approaches to spatial dependence in the data in the urban historic preservation context. Evidence of the influence of historic district designation on property turnover and renovation investments is also examined.     

农业企业社会责任壁垒化及对策分析

随着经济全球化的发展和人们消费责任的提高,企业社会责任挂钩于国际贸易壁垒,已经成为各国贸易中备受关注的话题。中国是农业大国,加入WTO以后,农产品出口企业一直面临"企业社会责任"新型贸易壁垒的挑战与考验。文章回顾了企业社会责任壁垒化的十年历程,并运用经济学原理分析其原因,重点指出中国农业企业在承担社会责任方面存在的问题,最后提出加强农业企业社会责任建设、跨越农产品出口壁垒的对策。     

Effects of land lease policy on changes in land use,mechanization and agricultural pollution

Land fragmentation has restrained the development of Chinese agriculture with the application of agricultural machinery. Meanwhile, agricultural pollution has caused serious problems with development. To address these problems, China's government proposed a new farmland lease policy and built larger farms beginning in 2013. However, changes in land fragmentation may also have unexpected problems for Chinese agriculture. This study investigated the effects of these changes on changes in land use, the application of machinery and agricultural pollution. We analyzed a developed area (in the fields of both agriculture and industry) and studied the decision-making habits of farmers in the area. An agent-based model was proposed with the same decision-making habits as in the real world. The results indicated that land lease increased agricultural profits very little in Jiangsu, China. Meanwhile, the application of land lease policy increased pollution. To alleviate pollution and increase profits, a new policy for large automatic protection machinery (i.e., large spraying machinery) should be introduced by governments simultaneous with land lease policy. Farmers could realize greater profits through the introduction of land lease policy and high-efficiency machinery. The sustainable development of agriculture in Jiangsu requires the integration of these government policies.     

The incidence of agricultural policy on the land market in Poland: Two-dimensional and multilevel analysis

Research has shown that the reform of the CAP which broke the link between subsidies and production (the decoupling reform) has had little effect on farmers’ demand for land under the SPS (Single Payment Scheme) system. For this reason, in the conditions of the SPS, there is petrifaction of the structure of agricultural land, and an upward trend in prices on the market for agricultural land should not be expected to continue in the long term. Under the conditions of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme), which applies in the EU-12 new Member States, the position in the market for agricultural land is different. However, most research carried out in Europe relates to the SPS system, where marginal changes in the value of land are identified as a result of the incidence of agricultural policy, as well as quantitative and qualitative attributes of particular properties. Under SAPS, these issues have not been sufficiently investigated. The authors have attempted to fill that gap, constructing a two-dimensional and multilevel econometric model for land prices in a leading agricultural region of Poland based on a sample of 653 transactions in the years 2010–2013. The aim is to determine how policy, as well as various quantitative and qualitative features, including location factors, affect the prices of land under SAPS. The results indicate, among other things, the key importance of the functional type of rural areas – properties in agrotouristic areas gained 43% higher prices on average than those in agricultural areas. Another finding of interest is that LFA and agro-environmental payments decapitalise the value of land.