消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差

本文放松了理性经济人假设,在行为经济学双曲线贴现模型框架下,以"自我控制"认知偏差及相应的模型参数设定对东西方消费文化差异进行了技术表达,进而阐明了消费过度(欧美国家)和消费不足(东亚国家)这两类消费行为偏差的形成机制。本文采用全球48个国家和地区1978—2007年的面板数据,以儒家虚拟变量和性生活指数作为消费文化的替代变量检验了文化与消费的关系。结果表明,在解释东西方消费率差异时,预防性储蓄等传统理论的解释力远低于不可观测的国家个体效应。儒家虚拟变量和性生活指数能分别解释国家个体效应的28%和58%。这表明消费文化等不随时间改变的个体因素比传统变量更能解释各国居民的消费差异。实践层面上,双曲线贴现模型中锁定技术能有效纠正"自我控制"认知偏差,从而消解儒家文化对消费的深度抑制,可为扩大内需政策创新提供思路启发和技术支撑。     

中国纸制品消费趋势:城市化增长的效应分析和预测

基于对近期未来的人口—经济增长的预测,分析了城市化增长对未来纸制品消费的影响。用"自相关误差回归"的方法检验人口和城市化增长的不同发展路径对于纸制品消费的影响。中国的城市化过程对纸制品消费影响很大,更快的城市化进程,相应的影响会更强烈。比较人口变量和经济变量,城市家庭经济因素相对更加明显。在近期的未来,随着纸制品消费的增加,其对环境污染的压力也会增大。     

The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services, compensation of public employees and transfers to households. A newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used. Our results point to the prevalence of mild Keynesian effects of public expenditures. In particular, although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent, government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short-lived expansionary effects on private consumption, while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect. The effects are more significant on the revenue side: decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output, while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run. Finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.     

环境规制下全要素生产率逆转拐点的空间效应*——基于省际工业面板数据的验证

工业是污染排放和能源消耗的主体,环境全要素生产率受环境规制影响,进而对工业的可持续增长有一定制约。本文采用2001-2012年中国各省份（西藏除外）工业行业的面板数据,基于Malmquist Luenberger生产率指数,在考虑环境污染的情况下测算了我国各地区工业行业的环境全要素生产率,避免了全要素生产率高估的问题;并构建空间计量模型,考虑空间相关性和异质性的影响,在控制了资本劳动投入比、地区经济发展水平、企业规模、所有制结构、外资结构等变量因素影响的基础上,实证检验了环境规制与全要素生产率的关系。实证结果表明：东部、中部和西部三大区域环境规制的强度和工业行业的环境全要素生产率之间呈现“U”型关系。随着环境规制强度不断增强,全要素生产率先降后升,而且东部地区要早于中部、西部地区达到拐点。在达到拐点以后,东部地区的全要素生产率对环境规制变动的反应要强于中、西部地区,东部地区的边际全要素生产率更高。     

环境效率评价及其影响因素的区域差异

本文基于SBM模型运用2000-2009年省级面板数据,测算了我国各省区环境效率,同时利用面板数据模型对影响环境效率的因素进行实证检验。结果表明:全国环境效率整体水平呈现下降的趋势,各区域环境效率差异较大;经济规模、产业结构、对外开放程度、政府规制和地区因素对我国环境效率均有显著影响,并且发现这些因素对于不同区域的影响程度存在差异;最后探讨我国环境投资对环境效率影响的区域性差异。     

Is There a Win–Win Situation in Household Energy Policy?

To achieve environmental goals, most governments aim to reduce consumption of the most polluting energy goods by taxation. Often, the authorities not only aim to change the consumption of the regulated good by the taxation, but also to change the consumption of close substitutes (hereafter referred to as win–win effects). The size of the win–win effects depend not only on how close substitutes the goods are, but also on the price sensitivity of the taxed good and on the budget effects of the regulation. We use a conditional demand model to decompose the cross-price effect to discuss which criteria that must be fulfilled in order for substantial win–win effects to occur, using Norwegian stationary energy consumption as an empirical example.     

Human capital and economic growth: A macroeconomic model for Pakistan

The paper presents a small macro model for Pakistan economy focusing the impact of investment in human capital on the key macroeconomic variables. The demand side is modeled along the Keynesian lines while the supply side is modeled as per neoclassical theory of production. This framework allows analyzing the effects of investment in human capital on supply side variables (like labor, physical and human capital) and demand side variables (like consumption and investment) at the same time.The model has small forecasting horizon in which three alternative scenarios regarding government spending on education are evaluated from 2012 to 2016. The model shows that the link between human capital and labor market is weak however a change in education spending affects output through enhancing productivity and through multiplier-accelerator principle. Though the model is small in size and forecasting horizon, it can help in evaluating the future paths of key macroeconomic variables associated with education spending.     

Green Throughput Taxation: Environmental and Economic Consequences

According to optimal taxation theory, raw materials should be taxed to capture the embedded scarcity rent in their value. To reduce both natural resource use and the corresponding emissions, or the throughput in the economic system, the best policy may be a tax on material inputs. As a first approach to throughput taxation, this paper considers a tax on intermediates in the framework of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with environmental feedbacks. To balance the budget, payroll taxes are reduced. As a result, welfare indicators as material consumption and leisure time consumption are reduced, while on the other hand all the environmental indicators improve.     

Does Ecological Footprint Impede Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

This paper examines the relationship between income and environmental quality using environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The hypothesised link is tested using time‐series analysis of 22 countries over the period 1961–2011. The degree of environmental impacts of economic activity is measured using ecological footprint (EF) per capita as explanatory variable, while real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and its quadratic and cubic forms are used as predictor variables in these countries. First, the EKC hypothesis is tested through examining the relationship between EF and GDP using linear, quadratic and cubic functions. Further, the long‐run relationship between EF and GDP is investigated using a vector error correction model. It was found that there is a cointegrated relationship between the variables in almost all countries, which was statistically significant, and EKC supported in 10 countries. Additionally, almost all error correction terms are correct in sign and are significant, which implies that some percentage of disequilibria in EF in the previous year adjusts back to the long‐run equilibrium in the current year. Therefore, an efficient trade‐off between environmental protection and economic benefits should be taken, and EF should be reduced through changing consumption patterns, improving the efficiency of use of resources and cleaner technology choices.     

通货膨胀不确定性及其对宏观经济的影响

利用马尔科夫范式转换模型分析了1985年1月到2009年7月我国通货膨胀的状态转换特征,并考察了与之伴随的不确定性及其对我国主要宏观经济变量的影响,发现通货膨胀不确定性仅对消费波动有显著影响,对投资和净出口的影响不显著,且方差不确定性和均值不确定性分别导致了消费波动增大与减小.通货膨胀不确定性凸显了宏观调控的重要性,积极、有效、透明的政策能够减少消费所面临的不确定性,保证居民消费的稳定和可持续增长,将有助于扩大内需,促进我国经济增长.     

Disaggregated approach to government spending shocks: a theoretical analysis

We calibrate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features a transmission mechanism with different types of government spending, while the literature usually treats government spending as a homogenous compound. In this regard, we manage to distinguish between different types of government spending (namely: government investment, government wage component consumption and non-wage component consumption) where each type of spending has a varied role in the economy. The government wage increase has the largest positive effect both on private consumption and output by affecting the economy through the government production. This is a natural consequence of government production being complementary to private consumption in our model. Other two government spending types, namely government non-wage consumption and government investment, also have positive effects on output, whereas their responses on (private) consumption are mostly negative. These results provide an alternative explanation for the wide range of multipliers existing in the literature as our setup enables them to produce different effects on macroeconomic variables.     

An input–output model of water consumption: Analysing intersectoral water relationships in Andalusia

This paper presents an input–output model of sectoral water consumption, created by combining the extended Leontief input–output model with the model of energy use developed by Proops. The analysis is applied to Andalusia, a region situated in the South of Spain which is characterized by water shortage. We determine which economic sectors consume the greatest quantities of water, both directly and indirectly, and to what extent this natural resource may become a limiting factor in the growth of certain production sectors. The model allows us to distinguish between direct and indirect consumption, thus offering the possibility of designing an economic and environmental policy oriented towards water saving. Additionally, the model allows simulation of possible changes in water consumption caused by certain environmental measures, as well as their consequences on the regional economy.     

城市居民生态消费行为的影响因素分析

文章利用黑龙江省哈尔滨市289个城市居民样本数据,分别建立居民购买对环境和自身都有利的生态环保型商品和对环境有利而对自身无影响的生态环保型商品的Logistic模型,分析了影响城市居民生态消费行为的主要因素。研究结果表明,居民对生态消费的认知水平、对环保标识的信任水平、政策宣传状况、商品质量的可靠程度对居民购买两类生态环保型商品都有显著影响,而且为正方向影响。性别和文化程度分别是居民购买第二类生态环保型商品和第一类生态环保型商品的比较显著的人口统计学影响因素。     

Dynamic factor models of consumption,hours and income

This paper addresses two questions in the economics of intertemporal choice. First, what are the key factors that drive fluctuations in income and what are the time paths of their effects? Second, how do consumers respond to these factors? We answer these questions by estimating dynamic factor models of consumption, hours, wages, unemployment, and income that account for measurement error and the fact that variables used in the study are measured at different time intervals and/or are aggregates for the calendar year. We pay special attention to a dynamic factor representation of a joint life cycle model of consumption and labour supply, which permits us to quantify the effect of wages, unemployment, and other factors on the marginal utility of income as well as to estimate the substitution effects of wage changes on labour supply and consumption.     

环保投资对中国SO2减排的影响——基于LMDI的分解结果

本文使用对数平均的迪氏分解法（LMDI）,将二氧化硫（SO2）排放强度降低的技术效应分解为能源消费结构效应、能源消耗强度效应和污染排放处理效应。研究发现,1998-2009年,中国SO2排放强度的降低主要归功于污染排放处理效应,其次是能源消耗强度效应,能源消费结构效应的贡献最小,甚至是反向的,这说明我国能源消费结构并没有得到优化,SO2减排主要依赖于末端治理和过程控制。本文还检验了2005-2009年中国30个地区环保投资对技术效应分解结果的影响,发现环保投资对能源消耗强度效应、污染排放处理效应具有显著的正向影响,而对能源消费结构效应的作用并不显著。     

On adaptation and the demand for health

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impacts of adaptation to failing health. This is done by integrating adaptation processes in a Grossman type of pure consumption model. Model simulations show that adaptation affects the health variables by lowering the incentives to invest in health, as well as smoothing the optimal health stock path over the life cycle. Whether or not the risk of mortality is an object of choice has important effects when studying adaptation, as well as for the joint development of the health variables.     

Economic,psychological, and sociological determinants of voluntary turnover

Economists, psychologists, and sociologists have all contributed to the understanding of voluntary labor turnover. We argue for an integrated explanatory model which incorporates variables from each perspective. Such a model is presented and then estimated. Data from a cohort of 135 recently hired registered nurses employed by a university hospital are analyzed to assess the effects of the various explanatory variables on turnover during one year of employment. Turnover is measured by organization records for 12 months following the administration of the questionnaire designed to measure the independent variables. The integrated model portrays the work conditions, environmental conditions, and employee characteristics as primarily affecting turnover by impacting on the intervening variables of job satisfaction, organizational commitment and intent to stay. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression and logistic regression are used in the analysis. The data indicate support for sociological, economic, and psychological determinants of voluntary turnover. These findings are discussed from the perspective of Etzioni's claims about the importance of the moral dimension for explaining economic behavior such as turnover.     

Monetary policy in a cash‐in‐advance economy: employment, capital accumulation, and the term structure of interest rates

Abstract.  In this paper we study the effects of monetary policies on employment, capital accumulation, consumption, and the term structure of interest rates in a cash‐in‐advance economy, where money is required for consumption expenditures. Monetary policy involves targeting the inflation rate. The detailed dynamics of the model are fully worked out. As no numerical analysis is involved, we are able to identify very clearly the different channels through which monetary policy will impinge on the important macroeconomic variables. The model is also used to discuss the 'Great Canadian Slump.' JEL Classification: E52 and E43     

空间视角下绿色技术创新动力解构：政策推进与市场拉动

绿色技术创新被认为是解决生态环境问题、实现经济社会可持续发展的有效途径。为促进区域绿色技术创新水平提升和协调发展，选取1997—2019年中国内地30个省份面板数据，采用动态空间面板模型实证检验环境政策、市场因素及其空间溢出效应对区域绿色技术创新的影响。研究发现：①环境政策与本地区绿色技术创新存在U型作用关系，并通过示范—模仿机制对周边地区产生正向溢出效应；②市场因素对本地区绿色技术创新具有显著促进作用，并呈现“涟漪效应”；③环境政策和市场因素对绿色技术创新的影响存在时空异质性特征，创新投入发挥部分中介作用。据此，提出制定合理的环境政策、激发绿色技术市场活力、实行差异化绿色创新驱动政策等建议。     

The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany

This paper estimates the impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Since old people display different consumption patterns than young people, an increase in the proportion of old people affects overall consumption patterns. Micro data from a household survey are used to identify age-specific consumption patterns and to project the impact of demographic change on the structure of total consumption expenditure up to the year 2030. The resulting final demand vectors are entered into an environmental input-output model, which allows the calculation of sectoral production, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The model results suggest that until 2030, demographic change raises the share of methane in total greenhouse gas emissions and does not contribute to reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. The model is also used to explore the effects of redistributing income between age groups and a policy-induced switch from motor vehicle use to public transport.