A real options model to assess the role of flexibility in forestry and agroforestry adoption and disadoption in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Efforts to restore the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley's forests have not achieved desired levels of ecosystem services production. We examined how the variability of returns and the flexibility to change or postpone decisions (option value) affects the economic potential of forestry and agroforestry systems to keep private land in production while still providing ecosystem services. A real options analysis examined the impact of flexibility in decision making under agriculture, forestry, and agroforestry and demonstrated that adoption of forestry or agroforestry systems is less feasible than would be predicted by deterministic capital budgeting models.     

SEA making inroads in land-use planning in Brazil: The case of the Extreme South of Bahia with forestry and biofuels

In Brazil, incorporating the environmental dimension to the planning process is a challenging process. Planning has historically been carried without considering environmental protection concerns. The country's large development projects have engendered a discussion on the feasibility of these works given the conflicts with environmental policies. The strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is a tool that has the potential to integrate the sectoral, territorial and environmental perspectives to promote sustainable development, as shown by international experience. Its use has not yet been regulated in Brazil, only been voluntary initiatives, both public and private, have been implemented. This paper presents the structure and results of the SEA of the plans to expand silviculture of eucalyptus and biofuels in the Extreme South Region of Bahia state, in the Brazilian Northeast, in a context of sectoral planning dissociated from government guidelines for land use policy and environmental protection. It portrays a practical case of methodological proposal for the use of socio-environmental criteria to establish limits for land occupation by monocultures, for each of the municipalities of the study region, according to their specific climate, soil, relief and environmental preservation characteristics. Various alternatives were identified to ensure areas with greater productivity for small family farming and areas with potential for preservation. SEA helped to a better understanding of the effects of the expansion of the planting areas in each alternative, which was essential to help all stakeholders visualize the consequences of their strategies. Consequently, as results the SEA outlined a series of guidelines and restrictions for the various levels of government and the production sector. For instance, SEA suggested for Federal, State and Municipality governments that areas with better soil and climate conditions could be reserved for public policies to incentive the diversification of the uses of the territory, such as food production. SEA also suggests the adoption of incentive programs to establish multiple-use forests. The SEA recommended that the state government integrate its program for strengthening family agriculture with land-use planning criteria, based on cooperative systems The methodology employed has evidences to be replicable in other regions of Brazil and in developing countries.     

Configuring land tenure caused by fixed residence according to the societal control system of North Korea: Focus on forestry carbon trading

The failure in addressing tenure rights in North Korea could be a severe obstacle to introducing forestry carbon trading since it becomes difficult for the land occupant to serve as a supporter to maintain the carbon pool. North Korea is one of the few countries in the world, holding a people’s registration system. North Korean citizens use lands allocated by the State for their entire life because they are not free to move their residences. The article indicates that the people’s registration card is solid evidence for fixed residence and stable land tenure. The card could be used as evidential documents to compensate carbon credit owners in compliance with the international standards for land tenure recognition. This article established a solid evidential foundation to introduce land tenure in North Korea.     

An open-access method for targeting revegetation based on potential for emissions reduction,carbon sequestration and opportunity cost

We propose a simple heuristic that uses open-access models and government data on agricultural activities to estimate total carbon emissions from agriculture, the gross carbon benefit and the opportunity cost per tonne CO₂-e from revegetating to environmental plantings or plantation forestry. We test this across ten areas of mixed land-use that represent diverse Australian agricultural systems along a rainfall transect. The local value of agricultural production was obtained from government statistics and used to estimate the current economic opportunity cost of converting cleared agricultural land to mixed environmental plantings for carbon sequestration. Gross carbon benefit from revegetation was closely related to current agricultural use, as was financial opportunity cost. These were not related simply to site productivity potential or rainfall. The proportion of land cleared for agriculture that would need to be re-vegetated to achieve a localised zero-carbon land-use scenario was calculated by the ratio of current agricultural emissions to gross carbon benefit from revegetation; this ranged from 13% to 66% for groups of agricultural industries across Australian rainfall transects. While the heuristic does not capture the detail of models built specifically for local research questions it does provide a different lens on the questions policy makers and land managers may ask about the costs and benefits of revegetating agricultural land, and provides open-access methods to guide them.     

The influence of crediting and permanence periods on Australian forest-based carbon offset supply

Governments globally are developing increasingly ambitious carbon emissions reduction schemes that include significant emissions offset credits for forest-based carbon sequestration. Such strategies can present significant challenges in highly modified and intensively farmed regions where forest land use opportunity and establishment costs are high. This article evaluates the economics of land-use change via active afforestation for local carbon abatement in the Australian state of South Australia, a region with high supply costs representative of long-established temperate farming regions. We found that there is no economically viable abatement below $38 tCO₂e⁻¹, however up to 154 Mt CO₂e of abatement could be available up to prices of $50 tCO₂e⁻¹.Variation in current Australian Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) policy parameters related to permanence and crediting periods were also assessed. Recent ERF contracts involve a 100-year land-use change commitment (permanence period) and a 25-year crediting period where payments for growth in carbon from the land-use change is contracted. We compared outcomes of this arrangement to a scenario with equal 100-year permanence and crediting periods. We found substantial differences in carbon supply at some price points for a 25 rather than a 100-year crediting period. Under ERF parameters the first economically viable revegetation options occur at $42 tCO₂e⁻¹, however, we found a 69 percent reduction in economically viable supply at a carbon price of $50 tCO₂e⁻¹. The results highlight the role offset crediting policy can have on dis-incentivising land-use change and the need for landholders to be compensated fully for temporal opportunity costs.     

Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

Analysing foregone costs of communities and carbon benefits in small scale community based forestry practice in Nepal

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, conservation and sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon (REDD+) are considered to be important cost effective approaches for global climate change mitigation; therefore, such practices are evolving as the REDD+ payment mechanism in developing countries. Using six years (2006–2012) data, this paper analyses trade-offs between carbon stock gains and the costs incurred by communities in generating additional carbon in 105 REDD+ pilot community forests in Nepal. It estimates foregone benefits for communities engaged in increasing carbon stocks in various dominant vegetation types. At recent carbon and commodity prices, communities receive on average US$ 0.47/ha/year of carbon benefits with the additional cost of US$ 67.30/ha/year. One dollar’s worth of community cost resulted 0.23 Mg of carbon sequestration. Therefore, carbon payment alone may not be an attractive incentive within small-scale community forestry and should link with payments for ecosystem services. Moreover, the study found highest community sacrificed benefits in Shorea mixed broadleaf forests and lowest in Schima-Castanopsis forests, while carbon benefits were highest in Pine forests followed by Schima-Castanopsis forests and lowest in Rhododendron-Quercus forests. This indicates that costs and benefits may vary by vegetation type. A policy should consider payment for other environmental services, carbon gains, co-benefits and trade off while designing the REDD+ mechanism in community based forest land use practice with equitable community outcomes. The learning from this study will help in the formulation of an appropriate REDD+ policy for community forestry.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed,Iran

Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.     

Effects of land urbanization and land finance on carbon emissions: A panel data analysis for Chinese provinces

The rapid urbanization in China comes with several economic, social, and environmental issues, most of which are related to land use. This study contributes to research on the land–growth–environment nexus by investigating the effect of land urbanization and land finance on carbon emissions in China from 2004 to 2013 using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. Results show that land finance and land urbanization significantly affect carbon emissions. The rate of land urbanization contributes to the reduction of carbon emissions; however, it has less impact compared with other determinants. The effect of land finance and land urbanization on carbon emissions indicates that a local government’s willingness to lease land for revenue aggravates carbon emissions. Economic growth and industrial structure also influence carbon emissions. Furthermore, the land requisition system and rural land conversion market should be enhanced through the guidance provided by the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) to promote the diversification of land transfer, fully consider regional differences, and establish a distinct policy focus that can contribute to emission reduction and land use.     

Economics of carbon sequestration under fluctuating economic environment,forest management and technological changes: An application to forest stands in the southern United States

This study presents a model that determines the effect of current and future payments for carbon sequestration, proportion of wood that sequesters carbon in long-lived product and landfills, and amount of carbon in the wood, on the optimal current forest harvest age. Increased current and future prices of carbon would lead to a longer and shorter harvest age, respectively. Higher current prices of carbon could increase the supply of carbon at a decreasing rate due to longer harvest ages. Moderate prices of carbon would encourage landowners to maintain standing timber. Policies focused then on stimulating landowners to hold timber on forestlands may not necessarily imply higher amounts of sequestered carbon. Increased future values of carbon could imply a reduction of the current supply of carbon.     

The impact of water price uncertainty on the adoption of precision irrigation systems

We examine whether a firm is more or less likely to adopt precision technology when input prices are stochastic. The results are important to determining whether programs and contracts that reduce input price uncertainty may deter the adoption of conservation practices. An economic model of the technology adoption decision shows that the net effect of input price risk is ambiguous and depends on several factors including the shutdown effect, the mean price effect, the precision expansion effect, and the risk aversion effect. An empirical implementation of the model relies on data on water price and irrigation technology adoption observed in a California irrigation district over the period 1999–2002. The results show that a stable input price increases the adoption of precision technology, but the impact depends on crop choice and land quality characteristics.     

Soil is brown gold in the Emilia-Romagna region,Italy

Soil is a natural resource essential to human welfare by virtue of its numerous crucial functions. In the past, soil has been taken for granted because of its widespread, albeit finite, availability. However, now that world's population is projected to exceed ten billion before the end of this century, soil is increasingly perceived as a precious commodity. Consequently, soil is increasingly under pressure by rich private investors and governments within the poorest countries to satisfy appetites for food production and biofuel. A case study is used to explore the plausibility of soil being considered as ‘brown gold’. Based on the comparison of land use maps, we estimated the value in terms of resource from raw material, carbon sink and virtual calories of the productive soil lost during the period 2003–2008 in the Emilia-Romagna Plain, one of the most productive areas of Italy. More than fifteen thousand hectares of cropland underwent land use change – in particular urbanization – over the 6-year period with an implied loss of crop production potential equivalent to the daily calorific requirement of more than 440,000 people. Taking into account that Italy is no longer self-sufficient in food production, such a loss appears to be strategically significant. Perhaps more importantly, urbanization and soil sealing has had negative ramifications on environmental sustainability, on both local and broad scales, with increased consumption of public funds. A logical framework of the socio-economic impact of land use change has been compiled and is presented as a possible example of a policy relevant approach to managing productive soils as a finite resource.     

晋江市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响

以晋江市为研究区,依据2005年,2010年和2015年3期土地利用数据,从生态系统服务功能角度,运用Costanza的方法,结合谢高地修正的我国生态服务价值当量因子表,分析了晋江市土地利用变化与生态服务价值的响应关系。结果表明:2005-2015年,晋江市的城镇用地显著扩张,而耕地和林地却急剧减少,土地利用的生态系统服务价值总体呈逐年下降趋势。通过分析晋江市土地利用变化对生态服务价值的影响可以为科学合理利用土地,保障人口、资源、环境的可持续发展提供决策支持。敏感性分析表明,生态服务价值对生态服务价值系数的变化是缺乏弹性的,因此结果是可信的。在编制土地利用规划时应将生态服务价值考虑其中,尤其是应注重保护湿地、水域、林地等生态服务价值系数高的土地利用类型,以期实现晋江市的可持续发展。     

基于GIS的达州市土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

随着地理信息系统的发展,其成果广泛应用于土地利用监管、生态环境监测以及农业等各个方面。依据达州市2013年和2020年土地利用情况的矢量数据,通过土地利用动态度和主成分分析的方法,对达州市土地利用变化状况及其驱动因素进行分析。结果显示:达州市未利用土地占比大,建设用地持续增长;而驱动因素主要有社会经济发展、人口增长和政策。     

Changes in land use, land tenure, and landscape fragmentation in the Tijuana River Watershed following reform of the ejido sector

Changes in land use and land tenure can influence both physical fragmentation and ownership fragmentation of landscapes, with implications for biodiversity. In this study, we evaluated changes in land use and land tenure in the Tijuana River Watershed, a region of high biodiversity and endemism, following the implementation of a new Agrarian Law which allowed for privatization and sales of communal land (ejidos) beginning in 1992. In order to understand changes in land use and cover, we constructed maps from aerial photographs and Aster images and measured changes between 1994 and 2005. In order to understand changes in land tenure, we collected data from Mexican government sources on ejido land size, ownership, and sales, and we conducted 55 structured interviews with ejidatarios in the watershed. Our results demonstrate that land-use/cover change between 1994 and 2005 was dominated by an increase in urban area and grasslands, and a decrease in coastal sage scrub, chaparral, and, to a lesser degree, agriculture. In particular, the conversion of coastal sage scrub has left a far more fragmented landscape than existed in 1994. In addition, most of the ejidos in the watershed, as well as individuals interviewed, had participated in some stage of the land certification and titling process allowed by the new Agrarian Law, resulting in substantial changes in land tenure. However, land tenure security appeared to play a larger role than a desire to sell land and, contrary to studies from other regions, full title to the land was obtained in a range of urban and rural settings, rather than primarily on land closest to urban zones. Our results suggest that past predictions regarding future urban growth and fragmentation of native vegetation in the region have proven accurate and highlights regions of change that merit further study.     

Race and affluence shape spatio-temporal urbanization trends in Greater Houston, 1997 to 2016

Urbanization results in increasing impervious surfaces with the potential to threaten fragile environments and heighten flood risks. In the United States, research on the social processes driving urbanization has tended to focus on the twenty-first century, but less is known about how temporal trends arose from the spatial layout of the urban land upon which this growth was founded. To address this gap, we present a novel interdisciplinary synthesis using neighborhood-level census data in tandem with a satellite-derived annual land cover change time series to assess the role of race, affluence, and socioeconomic status in shaping spatio-temporal urbanization in the Houston metropolitan area from 1997−2016. Results from cross-sectional and temporal regression models indicate that while social dynamics associated with historical versus recent urbanization are related, they are not identical. Thus, while temporal change in Houston's urbanization is driven primarily by socioeconomic status, the social dynamics associated with spatial disparities in urbanization relate primarily to race, regardless of socioeconomic status. These results are noteworthy as urbanization in Houston does not fully comport with existing theoretical perspectives or with empirical findings nationally. Instead, we suggest these findings reflect the city’s politics and culture surrounding land use. Thus, beyond its important social and environmental implications, this study affirms the utility of fusing socio-demographic data with satellite remote sensing of urban growth, and highlights the value of the socioenvironmental succession framework for characterizing urbanization as a recursive process in space and time.     

Forest land value and rotation with an alternative land use

We solve Faustmann's problem when the land manager plans to switch from the current tree species to some alternative species or land use. Such situations occur when the value of the alternative increases relative to the value of the species currently in place. The paper characterizes the land value function and the optimum rotations, highlighting the differences between this non-autonomous problem and the traditional Faustmann problem. We show that, from one harvest to the next until the switch, rotations can be constant and equal to the Faustmann rotation, or increasingly higher than the Faustmann rotation, or decreasingly lower. In the last two situations, the higher the number of previous harvests of the currently planted species before the switch to the alternative use, the closer the last rotation is to the Faustmann rotation.     

Forestry in the Republic of Ireland: Government policy,grant incentives and carbon sequestration value

Recent decades have seen a rapid increase in the area of privately owned forest plantations in Ireland. This has been largely driven by grant aid and annual premium payments from the government and the European Union. These forests are significant carbon sinks and as such are delivering added benefit to the country by contributing to greenhouse gas reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.The direct impact of government subvention on the net present value (NPV) for a defined forestry plantation is investigated. The added value of carbon sequestration to forestry investment is also examined using the Forestry Commission (Great Britain) carbon model. Extending the typical assumption of a constant carbon price for project appraisal purposes, this paper allows carbon prices to evolve randomly according to a flexible stochastic price process. The model chosen is an extended mean-reverting jump-diffusion with the flexibility to capture the higher order statistical features (i.e. skewness and kurtosis) of the carbon markets. This allows for an analysis of the risk and uncertainty around the NPV from exposure to stochastic carbon prices. It is shown that government grants and annual premiums for afforestation significantly improve the NPV on forestry investment. Carbon sequestration is shown to add further value.     

Intensity and spatial pattern of urban land changes in the megacities of Southeast Asia

Knowledge about intensity and spatial pattern of urban land changes (ULCs), i.e., changes from non-built-up to built-up lands, is important to a wide range of issues, from understanding of human–environment interactions and provision of urban ecosystem services, to land use policy development for landscape and urban planning toward sustainable urbanization. In this context, this paper aims to provide better understanding of the geospatial dimensions of the urbanization and landscape changes in two megacities of Southeast Asia. Specifically, we examine and compare the intensities and spatial patterns of ULCs in Metro Manila, Philippines and Bangkok Metropolitan Region (Bangkok MR), Thailand, during the 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 periods, using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and techniques. In the measurement of ULC intensity, an intensity scale is proposed to determine whether the rate of ULC during a particular time interval, i.e., 1990–2000 or 2000–2010, relative to the uniform intensity that is based on the whole time extent, i.e., 1990–2010, is very slow, slow, medium slow/fast, fast and very fast. To characterize the spatial patterns of ULCs, the concepts of the diffusion-coalescence urban growth theory were applied. The results revealed that for Metro Manila, its ULC was more intense during the 1990s (fast) than in the 2000s (slow). For Bangkok MR, it was more intense during the 2000s (medium fast) than during the 1990s (medium slow). The results also revealed that Metro Manila has been in the process of coalescence, while Bangkok MR is still largely in the process of diffusion and expansion. In this paper, we also discuss some of the possible factors influencing ULC intensity trends and spatial patterns, the advantages of the methods used for ULC analysis and some land use policy-related development plans for the two megacities.     

Prospective evaluation of the impact of land use change on ecosystem services in the Ourika watershed,Morocco

Land use change at the local stage affects the flow of ecosystem services at all levels. Analyzing the causes of land use change such as anthropogenic activities in the case of the Ourika watershed will facilitate sustainable policies. A decision-making tool, InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade Offs) was used to quantify three ecosystem services and to generate three spatially explicit land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) with expert stakeholders and the local population. The results indicate that forest expansion under the conservation scenario increased carbon sequestration and sediment retention by 34.29 % and 7.17 % but decreased water yield by 0.75 %. Comparably, a combination of forest and cropland expansion under the trend scenario generated a moderate increase by 8.4 % and 0.98 % but a negligible decrease of 0.09 %. A decline in the forests under the development scenario caused an improvement in the water yield by 0.12 % but a decrease in carbon sequestration and sediment retention by 6.06 % and 0.88 % respectively. A combination of forests and croplands through agroforestry systems enhances the provision of all the three ecosystem services. Community-based ecosystem and land management is the best way to improve ecosystem services at the local level.