山区农户对森林旅游业的参与意愿及影响因素研究

在行为经济学相关理论的基础上,基于福建山区221个农户的调研数据,运用有序Probit模型探究影响农户参与森林旅游业意愿的主要因素。研究结果表明:山区农户对森林旅游业的参与意愿不高;性别、健康状况、家庭成员是否为党员或干部、屋前是否通公路、家庭成员累计出外打工时间、对森林旅游政策了解程度、政府扶持力度及未来收益预期等因素是影响农户对森林旅游业参与意愿的主要因素。基于此,建议提高农村妇女参与森林旅游业的综合能力、加强政策的支持与引导及推进森林旅游业产业链延伸等。     

Mathematical formulation and exact solution for landing location problem in tropical forest selective logging,a case study in Southeast Cameroon

In Central Africa, creating forest roads and skid trails is one of the most costly and environmentally damaging operations for the forest's ecosystem. An optimized road network is essential for reducing construction costs and improving the sustainable management of timber resources. The location of landings is vital in the development of a future forest road network. In this study, a binary integer programming model similar to the uncapacitated facility location problem is formulated to optimize the locations of the landings. The model is applied to selective logging in Central Africa and tested on an annual logging zone in Southeast Cameroon. The results are compared to that of manual road planning, the currently used method.     

云南省文山州城镇体系空间结构的分形研究

应用MapInfo数字化了文山州地图,测量出计算城镇体系分形所需的各种距离;聚集分维显示该州城镇要素以开化镇为中心向四周衰减;文山州102个城镇的网格分维显示该州城镇要素分布介于线性与面状之间;20个主要城镇的空间关联分维显示,受山地地形的制约,主要城镇趋于线性地理要素分布,交通网络联接较差;马关县与麻栗坡县的城镇体系表现出相似的分形特征;"点-轴系统"是该州城镇体系的最佳空间发展模式,该州城镇体系已基本形成了323国道与衡昆高速公路沿线的主发展轴与平远镇至天保口岸的副发展轴。     

Safeguarding species richness vs. increasing the use of renewable energy—The effect of stump harvesting on two environmental goals

Deadwood is recognized as one of the most important resources affecting forest biodiversity. Its absence from the forest landscape is, therefore, of concern, such that one official Swedish environmental objective is to increase the volume of deadwood. However, increasing the use of renewable energy sources, another environmental goal, is likely to work against this biodiversity objective. In this study we utilize a regional economic forest sector model, focusing on northern Sweden, in order to estimate the effect of a large scale introduction of stump harvest on the future use of forest fuel. In addition, an ecological model, describing the relationship between the availability of stumps and the abundance of saproxylic beetles, is linked to the economic model.The parameters used in the economic model are derived from a data set spanning 28 years while the ecological model is derived from a survey of ten clear cuts, undertaken seven years after the clear cutting, in order to investigate the abundance of saproxylic beetles in stumps. We simulate the effects of an increased demand for wood fuels in northern Sweden, with or without stump harvest. The two scenarios have different effects on all major round wood markets in the region, as well as on the abundance of saproxylic beetles. More specifically, the harvest of stumps is associated with a 5% reduction in the mean abundance of saproxylic beetles living in deadwood on future clear cuts and a 3% increase in the use of renewable energy recourses in heating plants.     

基于BP神经网络的城市增长边界预测——以北京市为例

研究目的:构建城市增长边界预测模型,以北京市为例,研究该模型的可行性。研究方法:尝试采用BP人工神经网络方法,结合GIS和RS技术,并选定绿地、建筑物、行政中心、主要道路、次要道路、坡度、坡向和海拔8个对城市边界扩张影响较大的因子,建立城市增长边界模型(UGBM),并应用该模型预测了北京市2020年城市增长边界,同时用面积匹配值法评估了模型的精度。研究结果:使用UGBM模型预测城市增长边界,总的面积匹配值为106%,稍微高估了城市扩张面积。研究结论:基于BP神经网络的UGB划定方法对确定城市未来扩张方向有指导作用,可为城市规划和发展政策的制定提供指导。     

基于土地利用功能最大化的多情景土地利用优化研究

目的 基于土地利用功能价值最大化对自然发展情景、农业生产功能优先情景、经济发展功能优先情景及生态保育功能优先情景下的土地利用结构及布局进行优化,得到2026年保定市土地利用合理结构与布局。方法 文章利用MOP模型优化各情景土地利用结构、FLUS模型优化各情景土地利用空间布局、耦合协调模型分析各情景功能协调性。结果 各情景下草地面积都减少,建设用地及水域面积都增长。除农业生产功能优先情景外,耕地面积都呈下降趋势。经济发展功能优先情景土地利用功能总价值最高,农业生产功能优先情景最低;各情景下建设用地都以外延式增长;林地都以外延式及填充式在山地丘陵地区扩张;农业生产功能优先、经济发展功能优先及生态保育功能优先情景的土地利用结构耦合协调度高于自然发展情景,经济发展功能优先情景下功能间关系最协调。结论 在现行土地利用变化趋势下,未来保定市土地利用功能将严重失调,需严格落实耕地及生态用地保护政策、推动建设用地高效利用,实现土地利用功能协调及价值最大化。     

黔东南山地生态农业发展评价及预测研究

[目的]对2012~2016年黔东南州山地生态农业发展做出评价,并预测其2018~2027年的发展情况,以期了解黔东南地区农业可持续发展能力及未来趋势的变化规律。[方法]以黔东南及贵州《2013~2017年统计年鉴》为数据来源,通过构建评价指标体系,利用层次分析法及加权评分法对2012~2016年山地生态农业发展做出评价;并运用灰色模型,借助Matlab工具,对黔东南山地生态农业发展做出预测。[结果]2010~2016年黔东南州山地生态农业的经济、生态、社会效益处于发展上升阶段,协调度良好,但生态效益发展最低,其中2015年经济、社会、生态系统可持续发展良好,但由于持续保护,2016年出现生态保护过度,经济和综合效益下降现象,因此发展模式有待于向发展经济和社会效益方面倾斜;黔东南州山地生态农业在2018~2027年将会处于发展上升阶段,但其发展缓慢,仍存在一定限制因素。[结论]政府应积极调整农业产业结构,转变农业发展思路,可将部分生态农业与旅游相结合,发挥区位特色的同时,提升品牌的知名度。加大力度引导农业园区和重点产业的发展,推进农业农村改革试点的运行,加大新型农人的培育,促进高效、现代、特色生态农业的发展。     

绿色循环经济发展新路径——四川秦巴山区的加减乘除模式

山区的经济发展受到脱贫攻坚和环境保护的双重压力。绿色循环经济可以在实现经济增长的同时保护环境生态。以四川秦巴山区为例,提出了一个山区绿色循环经济的实现途径:加减乘除模式。加减乘除模式以科技为核心,通过产业调整实现绿色循环经济。加法:通过科学进步,实现垂直产业升级;减法:山区退耕还林;乘法:推动文明进程,提高生产效率;除法:通过科学技术,消除落后生产方式带来的伤害,如修复水土,重新种植有利于生态的作物;并针对四川秦巴山区的特点,提出运用加减乘除模式的政策建议。     

Land use dynamics in the central highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation

The paper investigates geo‐physical, agro‐ecological, and socio‐economic determinants of past land use change in two districts of Dak Lak province in the Central Highlands of Vietnam and assesses the influence of rural development policies on land cover change. Landsat satellite images from the years 1975, 1992 and 2000 are interpreted to detect land cover in two time periods. A survey in randomly selected villages provides primary recall data on socio‐economic and policy variables hypothesised to influence land use change. Secondary data on rainfall, soil suitability, and topography was obtained from meteorological stations and from a digital soil map and digital elevation model. All data were spatially referenced using geographic information systems (GIS) software. A reduced‐form, multinomial logit model is used to estimate the influence of hypothesised determinants on land use and the probabilities that a certain pixel has one of five land classes during either of the two periods. Results suggest that the first period from 1975 to 1992 was characterised by land‐intensive agricultural expansion and the conversion of forest into grass and agricultural land. During the second period, since 1992, the rapid, more labour‐ and capital‐intensive growth in the agricultural sector was enabled by the introduction of fertiliser, improved access to rural roads and markets, and expansion of the irrigated area. These policies, combined with the introduction of protected forest areas and policies discouraging shifting cultivation during the second period reduced the pressure on forests while at the same time increasing agricultural productivity and incomes for a growing population. Forest cover during the second period mainly increased due to the regeneration of areas formerly used for shifting cultivation.     

Aggregating forest harvesting activities in forest plantations through Integer Linear Programming and Goal Programming

The inclusion of criteria related to the spatial patterns resulting from forest harvesting activities is an important component of forest planning. Harvesting operations are more efficient when the harvesting areas are clustered. Therewith, it is possible to reduce the displacement of machinery and costs related to construction and maintenance of the road network. In this context, the objective of this study was to evaluate different strategies for aggregating harvesting stands in a forest plantation. We applied two Goal Programming approaches aiming at aggregating harvesting stands and an Integer Linear Programming model for including road investments into strategic forest planning.     

基于林特产业的山区农村经济发展模式初探——以浙江省临安市银坑村与白沙村为例

针对山区新农村建设中如何发展农村经济这一难题,通过对浙江省临安市银坑村和白沙村的全面调研,分析了制约中国山区农村经济发展的共性因素,利用2个调研村成功的发展经验,总结出山区农村基于发展优势林特产业的农村经济发展模式,并就推广应用该类发展模式的优势、作用、意义以及政策保障进行了讨论。     

可行能力视角下农户参与农地整理规划的意愿与影响检验——基于安徽寿县4个典型镇的实证分析

[目的]提升农户参与的意愿与探寻有效参与机制。[方法]文章以安徽省寿县4个典型镇的147户农户与4个项目为调查对象,从农户的可行能力视角出发,运用Logistic模型研究农户参与农地整理规划意愿的驱动因素,运用ArcGIS10.0的空间分析功能检验农户参与对规划的影响。[结果]非农业收入比例、农地整理政策了解度、排灌沟渠布局、田间道路密度及公众参与机制等5类因素有显著推动作用;对规划的影响表现在较大程度优化了规划方案,提高了农地生产率等,但耕作田块扩大效应不显著、排灌沟渠存在空间集聚现象、偏好生产路建设及轻视田间林网工程建设等弊端制约了农业规模化经营、忽视规划全局性与环境效应等。[结论]可通过强化农地整理政策宣传力度、完善引导农户式的公众参与机制及基于农户可行能力视角构建农地整理规划效果的衡量尺度以提升农户参与的意愿与探寻有效参与机制。     

林业企业实施森林认证的成本效益分析

鉴于森林认证的迅速发展以及在中国的起步态势,通过构建林业企业实施森林认证的成本效益量化分析模型对林业企业实施森林认证的成本效益进行分析。分析表明林业企业实施森林认证的综合效益的均衡值是存在的,森林认证机构、政府及林业行政部门应加快整顿市场经济秩序,林业企业实施森林认证后,在开发中必须要从全局出发,从整体上把握好森林资源开发的经济阈值和生态阈值,进一步提升林业企业实施森林认证的生态经济效应。     

Forest governance and economic values of forest ecosystem services in Vietnam

Forest ecosystems deliver valuable services to humanity. However, many forests are being degraded and their services have been undervalued. The main problem lies in the inadequate institutional arrangements for forest governance. This paper aims to assess the effects of alternative forest governance arrangements on the provision and economic values of forest ecosystem services (FES) in Vietnam. The study presents a framework for mapping land use and land cover (LULC) change stemming from actual and hypothetical changes in forest governance regimes, quantifies the resulting changes in the provision of FES, and estimates the associated economic values. In the context of the study site in the North Western uplands of Vietnam, we test three alternative forest governance scenarios: business as usual, with a dominant government role; a community-based governance regime; and a private, individual-based forestry governance regime. Scenarios are based quite closely on the way these regimes are (or might be expected to be) implemented in Vietnam. For each forest governance scenario, we map LULC changes based on land suitability analysis and transition likelihood for the period 2010 − 2020. The resulting maps are used as inputs into the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) model, which is used to estimate the quantity of three specific FES: carbon storage/sequestration, sediment yield, and water yield. We apply economic valuation methods to value these services: the social cost of carbon is used to estimate the economic values of carbon storage/sequestration; the cost of removing sediment deposited in reservoirs is applied for valuing the reduction of sediment yield, and the residual value of water supply for hydropower generation is used for valuing water yield. The results show that forest governance regimes have a significant effect not only on forest LULC, but also on the quantity and values of FES derived from forests. The FES are differentially affected by alternative forest governance regimes: some FES increase in quantity and value under some governance regimes and decrease under others. Of the three forest governance regimes examined, there is no one regime that will always be ‘better’ than the others in terms of provisioning all considered FES. For the specific context of Vietnam, we find that the private forest governance scenario is inferior to the community-based governance scenario, as an alternative to the current state-based governance. Because our results pertain to the scenarios as constructed, rather than generally to broad categories of governance regimes, there remains the possibility that regimes can be constructed that outperform all of those examined here.     

基于AHP与模糊综合评价法的森林康养旅游开发潜力评价*——以辽东山区为例

[目的]森林康养作为旅游新业态逐渐受到学者的关注和大众的青睐,成为研究的新焦点。森林康养旅游的产品形式和开发模式等定性研究有了较多研究成果,但对于森林康养旅游的开发潜力评价指标及开发体系仍属空白区,文章总结借鉴国内外森林康养旅游的研究成果,构建森林康养旅游开发潜力的评价体系,为森林康养旅游的发展提供新的研究视角和可操作性的实践支撑。[方法]从森林康养资源价值、森林康养环境价值和开发建设价值3个层次,选取8个准则层,界定32个指标层,构建了森林康养旅游开发潜力评价指标体系。采用层次分析法(AHP法)对测评的各项指标进行权重赋值,并采用模糊综合评价法对森林康养旅游开发潜力进行评价。[结果]以辽东山区为研究地,选取辽东山区具有代表性的桓仁、盖州、宽甸3县市进行森林康养旅游开发潜力评价,得出桓仁地区森林康养旅游开发潜力较大。在森林康养旅游开发中,环境价值所占比重最大,其次是资源价值,再次是开发建设价值。[结论]森林康养旅游是新兴的旅游业态,是森林资源利用新形式的有效探索,构建的开发潜力评价体系和采用的评价方法对于森林康养旅游的发展提供独特的研究视角和实践发展的有效抓手。但由于森林康养旅游是一个新兴的事物,开发潜力评价在指标体系和评价方法上仍需要进行深入研究。     

A study of farmer’s decision and incentive scheme to reduce highland maize farming in Thailand

During the past 15 years, there has been a considerable increase in highland maize farming in Nan, a province in northern Thailand. The increase in farming area causes an excessive forest encroachment and environmental problems, e.g. soil degradation, landslide, and pesticide contamination. This research explores the mechanism and factors which drive a sustainable transformation from highland maize farming to reforestation. We survey 107 farmers in Nammeed and Sopsai watersheds in where the reverses of growing trend of deforestation in Thailand have been observed. Comparative statistical analysis and regression are used to analyse factors affecting farmer’s decisions and compare differences between the two sites. We find that the fundamental mechanism driving a sustainable transformation from highland maize farming to reforestation comprises 3 pillars. These are 1) realization of adequate economic, health or environmental benefits derived from the alternatives; 2) a sense of belonging and attachment towards the forest and 3) effective enforcements of communal rules and regulations. While natural transformation in Nammeed area highlights the roles of flatland as key driver of the change, subsidy schemes can supplement the transformation during transitional period as seen in Sopsai area.     

Temporal and spatial modelling of tropical deforestation: a survival analysis linking satellite and household survey data

We estimate a spatially explicit model of the forest clearance process among smallholder farmers in an agricultural frontier of southern Mexico. Our analysis takes as its point of departure a simple utility‐maximising model that suggests many possible determinants of deforestation in an economic environment characterised by missing or thin markets. Hypotheses from the model are tested on a data set that combines a time series of satellite imagery with data collected from a survey of farm households whose agricultural plots were geo‐referenced using a global positioning system (GPS). We implement a survival analysis to identify the effect of household level explanatory variables on the probability of deforestation. This approach allows us to introduce a measure of the time until clearance as a covariate, thereby affording a control for the effect of potentially important explanatory variables that vary through time but are not directly observable. In addition to identifying several variables relevant for policy analysis, including household demographics, proximity to roads, and government provision of agricultural support, model results suggest that the deforestation process is characterised by non‐linear duration dependence, with the probability of forest clearance first decreasing and then increasing with the passage of time.     

黑龙江省国有林区企业经营方式转换研究

随着国家十二五规划实施,林业的功能由原来的工业型向生态型转变,林业企业面临经营方式转换,经济转型的关键时期。结合黑龙江国有林区的企业状况,立足现有资源,从生态效益、环保功能、政策支撑、科学发展、林区和谐社会建设方面,对林区的产业再造,经济重组,产能升级,如何确立新的经济增长点,尝试提出科学和可持续发展的建议。     

A Spatial-Based Decision Support System for wood harvesting management in mountain areas

In this paper, a spatial-based economic model is proposed with the aim of estimating the most likely harvest cost of a forest block in relation to its particular morphological and operating features. This work, which is based on the classical stumpage price assessment method, presents an economic balance of a forest cut, attained by conducting a cost analysis of each logging phase of the different standard harvesting strategies. The study area is in the North-West of Italy, in the Mount Cotolivier forest compartment, in Oulx, Piedmont. The map of the stand structure, which is included in the Oulx Forest Management Plan, was used to locate blocks (areas considered homogeneous according to the stand structure and forest typology) where silvicultural cuts could be scheduled. The feasibility of the selected logging strategies was mapped considering six conditioning factors, of both a topological and a topographic nature. Their influence was weighted by means of a score assignation and integrated in a Multi-Criteria Decision Making procedure. The scores were mathematically combined to calculate a spatial dependent cost-function (Block Exploitation Aptitude, BEA) in which the suitability of each block to be harvested was mapped through a specific strategy. The obtained BEA was then used to estimate the most suitable productivity rate of the harvests of each block. The unitary costs of the strategies were estimated and then compared to find the most profitable one for each block.This model has proved to be effective in generating objective economic results concerning harvest cuts in productive stands in mountainous areas. The proposed methodology simultaneously takes into account different factors and generates feasibility scenarios, in the space domain, for the considered harvesting strategies. The proposed model represents a prototype on which an operational Decision Support System could be based to assist forest managers over the short-medium term.