Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors

Using wheat market support data from 55 countries for 1961–2011 from the World Bank Agricultural Distortion database, we develop a fixed effect model that shows a more complicated, nonlinear relationship between income and wheat support and its components than previously realised. We find that income generally has a greater effect on border market price support than on domestic price support. Moreover, the difference between these types of support is greater for net importers than for net exporters and has increased with the URAA or WTO accession. Holding other variables constant, the wheat support level of China, driven mainly by border market price support, is projected to rise with future income growth. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to maintain its high level of support, while the US and EU are projected to maintain their lower levels of support. These results are relevant in the context of multilateral trade negotiations, arguing against a narrow focus on past or current policy profiles and for long‐run analyses that might mistakenly rest on the inconsistent assumptions of constant agricultural policies against the backdrop of rising incomes.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalisation in the 21st Century: Has It Done the Business?

Based on a novel, detailed, time‐consistent tariff database taking account of import protection developments in the agricultural sector since 2001, we propose a statistical decomposition of the changes in the various types of tariffs. The results show that the multilateral system has played a limited role in trade liberalisation over the period. Many countries have continued to apply much lower tariffs on agricultural products than their WTO ceilings. Moreover, there has been substantial unilateral dismantling of tariffs over the period, so that much of the liberalisation took place outside WTO and regional agreements. The number of regional trade agreements has surged, but their impact on applied agricultural tariffs has been limited. Finally, we investigate the tariffs, trade and production implications for food and agricultural products of two extreme scenarios in the future development of trade negotiations: an ambitious surge of regional agreements and a trade war within the WTO context.     

Multifunctional agriculture, policy measures and the WTO: the Norwegian case

One of the questions debated in the ongoing WTO agricultural negotiations is whether 'trade-distorting' subsidies, or subsidies outside the 'green box', are needed in order to pursue non-trade concerns. The term 'multifunctional agriculture' is increasingly applied to describe non-trade concerns. This article focuses on how to achieve the multifunctional goals that nations may have with minimal trade-distortion. In the first part of the article, this is done by a literature review and a theoretical analysis. The findings are then converted into an analysis of possible policy formulations in a Norwegian context using a partial equilibrium model. The article argues that multifunctionality hardly can justify the use of market support, while it may justify production-related budget support if the positive externalities or public goods are produced jointly with or complementary to agricultural production. The article concludes with suggestions for WTO trade rules to prevent such policies from becoming a form of protectionism.     

《日美贸易协定》对我国农产品贸易的影响及对策

本文在分析日美农产品关税、贸易和在《日美贸易协定》中降税情况的基础上,采用GTAP模型定量分析《协定》实施对我国农产品贸易的影响。结果显示:《协定》的实施将对我国农业总体发展产生一定冲击,日美相互减免农产品关税将带来一定程度的贸易转移效应,尤其对我国出口日本的蔬果和畜产品影响尤为明显。结合我国自贸区谈判和农业发展情况,本文提出积极推动多双边农业谈判、培育出口竞争优势、借鉴日本经验灵活处理农产品降税、利用自贸试验区积极对接农业国际规则等政策建议。     

中美贸易摩擦对中美农产品贸易结构的影响研究

中美农产品贸易一直是双方经贸关系中的重要组成部分.自2018年4月中美贸易摩擦发生以来,中美双方公布的贸易清单几乎涵盖两国双边贸易所有产品,这一决策可能会使中国农业产业和粮食安全面临严峻考验.本文获取了中美分三次发布的加征关税产品清单,对加征关税产品占中美农产品贸易的份额进行核算,并使用贸易强度指数、基尼-赫希曼指数,...     

Trade Reform and the Corn Market: Prospects for the World Trade Organization Negotiations on Agriculture

Government support and trade restrictions on agricultural commodities are among the most globally distorting protectionist policies. This is especially true with regards to corn. Vast production subsidies and import barriers, primarily within the European Union and China, have artificially inflated the global supply of this commodity, while restricting the available consumer markets. This impact is augmented by the preferential treatment granted in these countries to the production and importation of the best available substitute to corn, soybeans. Using an econometric model with commodity data over the past 20 years, this article predicts the likely impact of potential World Trade Organization (WTO) trade pacts on these corn trade distortions. Despite the WTO setback in Seattle, the vast global benefits resulting from agricultural trade liberalization in corn alone validate a continued push towards freer trade.     

Special and differential treatment in the WTO agricultural negotiations: Analysis and policy recommendation

The on-going Doha Development Round under the World Trade Organization (WTO) has its main focus on development. This is due to the widespread disappointment with the results from the former Uruguay Round Agreement. Developing countries have not reaped the benefits of free trade. For this current Round to be a success, developing countries have to be more integrated in the multilateral trading system. One of the means of integrating is Special and Differential Treatment (SDT). SDT is a deviation from the basic principle of Most Favoured Nation, positing that developing countries can have more flexibility than others. This article investigates the positions on SDT made by WTO members. The analysis gives some insights into the negotiations. First, the analysis reveals the fact that the positions of WTO members are relatively close to each other. This could indicate that countries in fact agree or that sensitive areas are maintained as yet unaffected. Second, being able to sustain a certain level of tariff rates attracts most interest from developing countries. Third, higher income developing countries want to retain their right to support domestic producers. Finally, the article identifies the July Package right in the middle of the positions which indicate a future agreement.     

Introduction to the Special Feature: Will the BRIC Decade Continue? The Role of Rural Areas and Agriculture

This article provides an introduction to the special feature on agriculture‐related issues in the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) contained in this issue of Journal of Agricultural Economics. The special feature is motivated by the increased interest which these countries have received since the turn of the millennium and by the significance of agriculture in their development. It considers economic and social development in BRICs, their integration in world agricultural trade as well as environmental concerns. This article presents key figures on economic, social and agricultural features in BRICs and compares them across countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics likely to be crucial for further development across BRICs.     

中国农产品贸易角色变迁：1949—2019

[目的]中国是农产品生产大国,同时也是农产品消费大国和贸易大国。1949—2019年中国农产品对外贸易历经70年的风雨,其在不同的历史阶段扮演着举足轻重的角色,通过回顾与总结农产品贸易发展历史,为未来中国农产品贸易发展提供经验借鉴。[方法]通过查阅历史文献,运用详实的历史统计数据进行分析。[结果]以重大历史事件为节点,将1949年以来农产品贸易发展史划分为3个阶段:即1949年至改革开放前夕、改革开放至入世前夕、入世至今。对应地,农产品贸易在中国经济发展中的主要角色被归纳为出口创汇、出口创汇与调剂余缺、优化资源配置与全面对外开放。文章着重探讨了各个阶段农产品贸易角色变迁的缘由、农产品贸易的特点。[结论]回顾70年农业贸易发展历史,中国农业贸易发展成就瞩目,发展历程艰辛曲折,中国现有农业贸易结构是发挥比较优势的产物,未来农业的发展以及农业贸易的开展,仍需遵循比较优势原理开展。     

Trade and agroindustrialization in developing countries: trends and policy impacts

There have been important changes in the international trade of processed and high-value added food products from developing countries over the past several decades. One of them has been the emergence of oilseeds and fruits and vegetables, replacing traditional products such as sugar, coffee, and cocoa as the main exports from developing countries. Another trend has been the collapse of African agroindustrial exports and the increase of exports from Asia. The paper highlights key trends, and explores possible reasons for the trends, focusing on trade policies in less-developed countries (LDCs) and developed countries (DCs). The paper argues that national trade policies and other economic policies appear to have been relatively supportive of agroindustrial production and exports in Asia. In contrast, policies have had more mixed effects in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and seem to have been just one component in a larger array of forces inhibiting economic development in Africa. The performance of agroindustrial production and exports from LDCs may be now more dependent than ever on the completion of reforms in the agricultural trade policies of DCs. For Africa, however, a more supportive international environment and better macroeconomic and trade policies will not be enough to ensure a thriving agroindustrial sector within a broader process of economic development until military confrontations stop.     

Alternative Trade Mechanisms in World Dairy Markets

Dairy remains among the most protected agricultural sectors within OECD countries. Trade implications of this protection are import barriers and policies to induce greater exports, all of which distort markets. The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) set limits on subsidized exports and tariff rates for dairy products in order to liberalize trade. Yet few of the nations engaged in dairy market support have quit their efforts since the agreement. Continued implementation of the URAA with its accompanying limits, or possibly expanded liberalization after future trade talks, may result in greater stress on domestic price support mechanisms. We investigate implications of the URAA limitations on world dairy markets and some alternative methods of dairy product trade intervention by examining cases of existing and potential trade distortion. La filière du lait demeure le secteur agricole le plus protégé au sein des pays de l'OCDE. Sur le plan des échanges internationaux, cette protection se traduit par des barriéres à l'importation et par des politiques d'exportation agressives, autant de causes de distorsion du commerce mondial. Dans l'esprit de libéraliser les échanges commerciaux, l'Accord sur l'agriculture de l'Uruguay Round (AAUR) a fixé des limites aux exportations subventionnées et aux taux tarifaires imposés à l'importation des produits laitiers. Pourtant, quelques-unes seulement des nations appliquant des mesures de soutien du marché laitier ont jusqu'ici relâché leurs efforts. La poursuite de la mise en application de l'AAUR et des limites qu'il impose, ou une libéralisation éventuelle plus grande survenant après les prochaines discussions commerciales, peut créer une pression accrue sur les mécanismes de soutien des marchés intérieurs. Nous analysons la portée des restrictions de l'AAUR sur les marchés laitiers mondiaux ainsi que quelques méthodes d'intervention sur le marché des produits laitiers, par l'examen de certains cas de distorsion actuels, et éventuels du commerce extérieur.     

The law and economics of Canada's WTO litigation contesting U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL)

We explain the interplay of law and economics in the successful WTO challenge by Canada of U.S. mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) measures for beef and pork, which hinged on origin of livestock used in U.S. meat production. Canada mounted a successful legal and economic strategy to convince WTO adjudicating bodies that the United States had violated specific WTO provisions. Canada's economic evidence shows that through costs of segregation the COOL measure harmed the competitive position of Canadian cattle and hogs in the U.S. market. Economic evidence was built into the strategy and cited by the WTO Panels in support of their legal findings that the COOL measure violated U.S. obligations under WTO agreements. Canada was awarded rights to more than one billion Canadian dollars in retaliation and the United States responded by eliminating the offending COOL measure. The COOL case demonstrates how economic and econometric evidence can be used in complex dispute settlement proceedings dealing with technical trade barriers. Economics is especially valuable in the initial stage of framing the effects at issue, in the intermediate stages of documenting empirical causation and in the final stage of litigation, which was to calculate and defend the amount of retaliation.     

Fair Trade and Organic Agriculture in Developing Countries: A Review

Fair trade regimes and organic agricultural systems are 2 innovations that increasingly play an important role for agriculture in developing countries. Whereas fair trade regimes have their origin in the developing countries, organic agriculture was started in the rich countries and has only recently become popular in the Third World. Both innovations can be mutually reinforcing as fair trade often combined with organic production standards opens up new market prospects. In this article we explore the opportunities and constraints of marketing organic products from developing countries under fair trade regimes. Based on available literature, we review evidence of the magnitude of organic production and fair trade systems in developing countries. We also propose a framework for studying the impact of fair traded organically produced commodities using the case of black pepper in India. The framework will generate testable hypotheses regarding the 2 innovations.     

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade

Using a sample of bilateral trade flows across ten developed countries between 1974 and 1995, this article explores the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors. Based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results show that real exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant negative effect on agricultural trade over this period. Moreover, the negative impact of uncertainty on agricultural trade has been more significant compared to other sectors.     

WORLD AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE NEW GATT ROUND

World agricultural markets are grossly imbalanced with supplies running well ahead of demand at current depressed world prices. At the heart of the problem is the high protection given to agriculture in many OECD countries. In particular, price supports to farmers are too high and incentives to maintain or expand production too great. The success of the Uruguay Round in achieving greater liberalisation of trade in agriculture will depend on the willingness of participating governments to undertake significant reforms of domestic agricultural policies, with the aim of reducing overall protection to agriculture and switching support measures away from direct producer price support to income aid for specific disadvantaged producers. In some countries, this notion has run up against complex politico-social and structural objectives, which prevent these countries from agreeing to any significant price reduction. Price support policies, however, have been ineffective in the long run in retarding the outmigration of labour from agriculture. Measures involving only quantitative controls on production will be useful in the short run to reduce surpluses but will not solve the underlying problems which the new GATT Round must address.     

China's agriculture: drivers of change and implications for China and the rest of world

The overall goal of this article is to identify major changes in China's agriculture/food economy and their implications for both China itself and, more importantly, to the rest of world. China has become one of the fastest‐growing economies in the world since late 1970s. GDP grew at about 10% annually in the past 30 years. China's experience shows the importance of both domestic and external policies in achieving sustainable growth. The results from this study provide significant policy implications to many countries that are currently China's major trade partners or those seeking greater economic and trade relations with China. The main conclusions on the implications of China's rapid economic growth are that China's growth will provide more opportunities than challenges to the rest of the world, on average. Overall, the rest of the world will gain from China's economic expansion though this general conclusion may not hold for some countries.     

Integrated regional impact assessment of agricultural trade and domestic environmental policies

It remains challenging to derive general findings and conclusions from either economic theory or empirical studies on the relationship between international trade and the regional environment. Consequently, we aim to analyse environmental effects of agricultural trade policies in the Austrian Marchfeld region. We apply an integrated modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneity in agricultural production and environmental outcomes. Scenario analysis is applied to assess regional impacts of different trade policy scenarios. Sensitivity analyses reveal the relative influence of model parameters on outputs. The results indicate that lower domestic tariffs have small beneficial effects on the regional environment. The regional environmental impacts highly depend on the changes in world crop prices through global trade agreements. A laissez-faire market scenario that includes the elimination of trade barriers and agri-environmental payments (AEPs) leads to substantial environmental deterioration. Hence, the alignment of AEPs with WTO trading rules remains an important issue in the trade and environment debate.     

Agricultural price distortions: trends and volatility,past, and prospective

Historically, earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro‐urban bias in own‐country policies, as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduced global economic welfare and agricultural trade, and added to global inequality and poverty. Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in reducing agricultural protection in high‐income countries and agricultural disincentives in developing countries. However, plenty of price distortions remain. As well, the propensity of governments to insulate their domestic food market from fluctuations in international prices has not waned. Such insulation contributes to the amplification of international food price fluctuations, yet it does little to advance national food security when food‐importing and food‐exporting countries equally engage in insulating behavior. Thus there is still much scope to improve global economic welfare via multilateral agreement not only to remove remaining trade distortions but also to desist from varying trade barriers when international food prices gyrate. This article summarizes indicators of trends and fluctuations in farm trade barriers before examining unilateral or multilateral trade arrangements, together with complementary domestic measures, that could lead to better global food security outcomes.     

“一带一路”国家与中国农产品贸易与碳排放的关系实证分析

[目的]为了推进"一带一路"沿线区域内的农产品贸易,共创环境优化和贸易获益的共赢局面,文章基于1995—2014年"一带一路"沿线5个区域48个国家的面板数据,研究农产品贸易和碳排放之间的双边关系。[方法]首先,评估农产品贸易对碳排放的影响。其中,创新性地采用农产品贸易开放指数(TPI)测度沿线国家的农产品贸易开放程度;其次,构建纳入碳排放的指标体系,设立随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率项模型,实证检验碳排放对农产品贸易及其效率的影响。[结果]一方面,沿线国家的农产品贸易开放度越高,碳排放越高;另一方面,沿线国家的碳排放对其与中国的农产品进出口贸易存在显著的正向效应,且呈现出明显的区域差异。物流综合绩效的提升、是否加入WTO均有助于提升农产品贸易效率。[结论]中国应积极利用沿线国家的碳资源,扩大与沿线区域,尤其是南亚、东南亚和中亚(含俄蒙)的农产品进出口贸易,以及对西亚和中东地区的农产品出口贸易。     

A new president in the White House: implications for Canadian agricultural trade

Canadian agricultural trade has experienced several volatile periods over the past 15 years. The Great Recession (2007–2009), the 2015–2016 global trade slowdown, unilateral policy actions by the United States against key trade allies and the multilateral system more generally, and the impacts of the Covid‐19 pandemic are among the most significant events during this period. Given the close integration of Canadian and US agricultural markets, the recent US election is likely to again impact the relative competitiveness of Canadian agricultural exports. While many observers suggest President‐elect Joe Biden will return to normal times regarding multilateral cooperation with key allies and international institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the new administration is likely to face headwinds given the significant fraying of ties with key trading partners and allies due to disruptive actions taken by his predecessor. This article provides an overview of potential implications of a Biden administration for Canada's agricultural trade. We start by reviewing recent trade shock events affecting Canada's agricultural trade with a particular focus on trade actions taken by the United States. Relevant components of the President‐elect Biden's platform, considerations affecting the implementation of this platform, and the implications of this for Canadian agricultural trade are considered.