首轮退耕补贴到期对农户退耕地利用意愿影响研究——基于农户主观福利的中介检验

[目的]考察退耕补贴到期对农户退耕地利用意愿的影响以及主观福利的中介效应,为巩固退耕还林成果、推动退耕还林高质量发展提供决策参考。[方法]文章基于河北省473户参与首轮退耕的农户数据,构建类别变量中介模型,实证检验退耕补贴到期对农户退耕地利用意愿的影响,并进一步探究主观福利是否在退耕补贴到期影响农户退耕地利用意愿的关系中具有中介效应。[结果]（1）退耕补贴到期会增强农户对退耕地的复耕、换树种和流转意愿,降低农户的管护意愿;（2）退耕补贴到期会造成农户主观福利的下降;（3）主观福利在退耕补贴到期与农户退耕地管护、复耕和换树种意愿的关系中具有中介效应。[结论]政府应及时出台退耕还林后续相关政策,提升农户主观福利水平,并加强退耕地流转机制建设,从而保障退耕还林成果的可持续性,实现退耕还林的高质量发展。     

Experts’ perceptions of the sloping land conversion program in the Loess Plateau,China

China’s Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) is the world’s largest payment for ecosystem services program for improving ecological conditions and farmers’ livelihood. Communicating the SLCP outcomes across diverse stakeholder groups in ecological, socio-economic, political and institutional contexts can facilitate the effective implementation of the new round of the SLCP. Experts from various fields involved in the SLCP have developed good connections with governments, agencies, and farmers; therefore they can play an invaluable role in informing urgent policy changes. This study is based upon 24 interviews with the SLCP experts with the aims of assessing their perceptions of ecological, economic, political and social impacts of the SLCP on the Loess Plateau of China, and then gathering their policy recommendations to ensure that the new round of the SLCP would be implemented efficiently. Content analysis based on the grounded theory is used in present study. Judging from expert-based consensual statements from this study’s interviews, the main concerns about the first round of the SLCP on the Loess Plateau are that the dramatic increase in the farmer’s income and livelihood is mainly from off-farm sources rather than the SLCP subsidy, that equitable government compensation is dependent on the outcome of the SLCP, that the aggressive SLCP causes soil drought which have negative effects on ecological restoration, and that the stakeholders’ interaction could be improved. Based on the analyses of the experts’ interviews, the recommendations are summarised as follows: strengthening the farmers’ environmental awareness and vocational skills, establishing multi-source financial supports and flexible compensation mechanisms, establishing participatory planning that requires stakeholder involvement especially farmers and insisting that scientific studies on the ecological restoration of the Loess Plateau must be shared with local governments and farmers.     

Does participation in the sloping land conversion program reduce the sensitivity of Chinese farmers to climate change?

Over the last two decades, extensive literature has examined the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP), a program that was launched in late 1990s to mitigate the environmental effects of agricultural production and reduce rural poverty. However, little empirical evidence exists with regard to the impact of SLCP on rural households' sensitivity to nature-induced changes and environmental challenges. In this study, household-level data covering the period 1995–2010 from five Chinese provinces were used to examine the effect of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity to climate change. The empirical results show that participation in SLCP significantly reduced farmers' sensitivity to climate change by reducing their dependency on land and natural resources for income, and by diversifying their livelihood options. Spatially, the results reveal that the effect of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity vary across regions. Specifically, SLCP was found to have a ‘rate effect’ on farmers in the Northern regions and a ‘level effect’ on farmers in the Southern regions. Likewise, we found that the effect of SLCP differs considerably across income groups, with the effect on low- and middle-income groups being most significant. The results indicate that subsidy is the main pathway through which SLCP reduces farmers' sensitivity to climate change. In contrast, we found inclusive evidence about the indirect effect of SLCP farmers' sensitivity through the promotion of non-agricultural employment. These results carry major implications with regard to the effectiveness of ecological conservation programs and their mitigation potential through building farmers' resilience in China and ecologically fragile environments.     

Simulating land use changes under alternative policy scenarios for conservation of native forests in south-central Chile

In this study, we combined policy analysis with landscape change modeling to simulate outcomes of alternative forest conservation instruments proposed by opposing policy coalitions. In 1992, concern over rapid land conversion to timber plantations (Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus spp.) in Chile gave rise to a protracted policy process resulting in the 2008 Native Forest Law (NFL), which subsidizes reforestation and management with native forest. To date, however, NFL has had little impact on native forest conservation. To understand how the policy process that created the NFL shaped its outcomes, we employed the Dyna-CLUE modeling approach to simulate land use changes in south-central Chile from 1993 to 2007, based on 3 scenarios: (1) enactment of NFL in 1993 when the law was originally debated, and the different configurations of subsidies and regulations proposed in the NFL policy debate by (2) the industrial forestry coalition and (3) the forest conservation coalition. We observed no major difference in native forest loss between simulated outcomes of the industry-advocated policy and the actual NFL legislation. The conservation coalition’s policy scenario increased native forest area, primarily in shrub steppe areas, but also via conversion of pine plantations if incentive payments were large enough. However, NFL payments are inadequate to make native forest management a viable economic land use alternative to industrial pine plantations, which are also subsidized in Chile. Gains in native forest cover occurred mostly on lands under ancestral indigenous claims (unrelated to the discussion of the NFL). We conclude that the NFL, even if enacted in 1993, would have been ineffective in preventing native forest loss, because tree plantations are more profitable and NFL regulations were weakened by the industrial coalition that opposed—and strongly shaped—the final legislation. Effective incentives for protecting early-successional forests and shrublands are needed to mitigate further losses and foster recovery of Chile’s native forests.     

Effects of industrial plantations on ecosystem services and livelihoods: Perspectives of rural communities in China

This paper addresses the current research void on local community views of changes in ecosystem services associated with rapid land use transformation in the context of plantation-based forestry. This interview-based study, conducted in southern China, aims at assessing the perspectives of local communities of: 1) the effects of Eucalyptus industrial plantations on selected ecosystem services and on local development; and 2) opportunities for future community livelihood development, based on the relations with the government and with forest industry operating locally. We analysed data from semi-structured interviews with 70 villagers for their views on changes in ecosystem services after the establishment of plantations, and their future expectations on the local livelihood development. Most interviewees mentioned some negative development on environmental quality after the establishment of the industrial plantations, especially on soil and water. Furthermore, the reduced productivity of cropland surrounding industrial plantations, coupled with other financial drivers, induced several villagers to switch from agricultural crops to household plantations. In the absence of destructive typhoons, household plantations can provide owners more free time, higher income, while industrial plantations provided some employment opportunities. Interviewees’ expectations for the future included receiving financial support and capacity building for household plantations and crops, support to local roads and schools, and higher employment opportunities. Some interviewees suggested that solutions should be implemented for improving degraded water quality, while others suggested reducing forestry operations. Even though being highly context-specific, our findings open up the discussion about the further community development opportunities in the context of plantation forestry. In particular, the potential of value sharing mechanisms between the private sector and the local communities should be further studied.     

The disappearance of water buffalo from agrarian landscapes in Western China

For centuries, water buffalo served important livelihood functions for ethnic minority farmers in Southwest China. Yet, over the past decade, buffalo ownership decreased dramatically in our research sites in Yunnan province. This transition occurred after state policies and projects excluded villagers from significant portions of their land. Increased state control over landscapes allowed the state to respatialize land uses in ways conducive to productivist and environmentalist logics, with farmers cultivating cash crops on limited production landscapes and state agencies taking over control of larger environmental landscapes. Buffalo are welcome in neither setting. Handai and Akha farmers have divergent perceptions on the outcomes of these technological shifts, with Handai beginning to question buffalo loss while Akha having contented to become “modern” farmers. In both cases, our analysis challenges the literatures on sustainability transitions and ecological modernization that posit apolitical and optimistic outcomes for farmers' adoption of “modern” and “green” technologies.     

Land for welfare in China

Drawing on firsthand observations, Party and government documents, and survey data, this study examines the causes and processes of the land for welfare policy in China. The implementation of the land for welfare program cannot be understood in isolation from the profound urban–rural gap in the land property rights regime and social welfare provision in China. The dual land tenure system allows local officials to generate revenue by expropriating rural land, which, to rural households, functions as a social insurance as well as an income-generating property. In the process of land requisition, land-losing villagers are provided with social welfare benefits to compensate for their loss of their land's insurance function. Such provision, however, is not developed out of the local governments’ benign intention, but their strategic reaction to the central government's development program that combines rural social welfare provision with a land rewarding system, which provides an opportunity for local officials to gain more land, a valuable asset for local governments. The provision of social welfare benefits is selective: affected rural households are provided with welfare benefits that are less costly to the local government, typically in the form of a pension insurance.     

生计资本和社会排斥：长江禁捕补偿政策对渔民生计影响机理研究

目的 渔民作为禁捕补偿政策的直接利益相关者,其生计问题直接关系到禁捕政策成效。探究长江禁捕补偿政策对渔民生计的作用机理,对推动实现长江生态保护和退捕渔民生计保障具有重要意义。方法 基于可持续生计理论和社会排斥理论,文章通过构建长江禁捕补偿政策背景下渔民生计结果的分析框架,利用江苏、安徽和湖北3省调研数据,采用偏微分最小二乘法的结构方程模型估算路径系数,测算长江禁捕补偿政策对生计结果的直接效应、间接效应和总效应。结果 从直接效应上看,政策对促进生计资本积累和生计结果改善有显著影响,对于抑制社会关系排斥和政治排斥有显著作用,但对就业排斥影响不显著;从间接效应上看,政策能够通过生计资本和社会排斥的中介作用对生计结果产生重要影响;从总效应上看,长江禁捕补偿政策的实施能够显著改善渔民的生计结果。结论 生计资本是渔民生计内生动力,对生计结果改善具有重要意义,须继续加大对生计资本建设力度;社会排斥是渔民生计发展的外部阻力,须促进社会融合,保障渔民政治、就业和社会关系等方面权利。     

Land reclamation and afforestation research on the coal-mine-disturbed lands of Bulgaria

Bulgaria has 30000 hectares of coalmine-disturbed land. A new state policy requires 5000 hectares to be reclaimed by 1990. Applied research on the afforestation of mine spoils in the Pernik basin has a history of over 50 years. Today concern focuses on the restoration of agricultural land in the lignite mining area of Maritsa-lztok. However, mine spoils have characteristics which make their management for agriculture difficult and expensive. By contrast, some tree species grow strongly on mine spoils and their plantations require less site preparation and maintenance. Trees may also serve to prepare the soil for agriculture. Both reclamation approaches remain active areas for discussion and research.     

Moral Economy and the Upper Peasant: The Dynamics of Land Privatization in the Mekong Delta

This paper examines how people mobilize around notions of distributive justice, or ‘moral economies’, to make claims to resources, using the process of post‐socialist land privatization in the Mekong Delta region of southern Vietnam as a case study. First, I argue that the region's history of settlement, production and political struggle helped to entrench certain normative beliefs around landownership, most notably in its population of semi‐commercial upper peasants. I then detail the ways in which these upper peasants mobilized around notions of distributive justice to successfully press demands for land restitution in the late 1980s, drawing on Vietnamese newspapers and other sources to construct case studies of local land conflicts. Finally, I argue that the successful mobilization of the upper peasants around such a moral economy has helped, over the past two decades, to facilitate the re‐emergence of agrarian capitalism in the Mekong Delta, in contrast to other regions in Vietnam.     

Intra-regional variation in land use and livelihood change during a forest transition in Costa Rica's dry North West

The work reported here examined intra-regional differences in land use and livelihood changes made by landholders during a forest transition in a dry region of North-West Costa Rica. It drew on the Sustainable Livelihoods Analysis framework to evaluate a qualitative, comparative study of landholders’ access to livelihood resources in two key landholder groups across five communities. Research findings show that while forest outcomes were similar across the two landholder groups and the five communities (net forest recovery), the livelihood dynamics leading to these outcomes varied. One important factor influencing this was small differences in the geographic location of the five communities, which shaped the effect of mediating institutions and policies on the accessibility and deployment of livelihood resources. The findings point to the importance of locally tailored interventions that reach beyond the field of forest conservation and management. These would include interventions to strengthen rural peoples’ access to resources needed to adapt livelihoods to changing socio-economic conditions. They would also include programs to reduce locally felt trade-offs between conservation and development. The findings also raise doubts that Costa Rica's payments for environmental services (PES) program, as it is currently structured, is an effective mechanisms for linking forest recovery and sustainable rural livelihoods in this particular region.     

Testing the orthodoxies of land degradation policy in Swaziland

This paper explores Swaziland's National Action Programme (NAP) to combat desertification; the country's main strategy for implementing the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). It considers whether this policy tackles real problems supported by micro-level scientific evidence and local experiences, or whether it further reinforces popular orthodoxies about land degradation. Data from one case study chiefdom in Swaziland are used to test two key orthodoxies identified within the country's NAP: (1) the presentation of degradation as a neo-Malthusian problem resulting from population pressure and (2) the assumption that the poor are responsible for degradation of their environment, in particular, the over-use of forest areas and the degradation of soils. It is found that diverse rural livelihoods inherently deliver patches of degradation at the micro-level but it is not necessarily population pressure or poor people that cause the degradation. Households with varying assets simultaneously degrade and conserve different parts of the land resource through pursuing different livelihood activities. The data indicate that while the NAP focuses on mythical problems grounded in the orthodoxies, policy attention is directed away from the more serious land degradation issues affecting rural livelihoods. The findings of this study provide a more nuanced understanding of the gaps between land degradation policy, local conservation practice and environmental and livelihood outcomes, and suggest that policymakers need to evaluate more critically the outdated and simplistic degradation orthodoxies on which much current policy is based. Stronger links need to be made between scientific and policymaking communities, while more credence should be given to land users’ own knowledges, perspectives, concepts and categories surrounding issues of soil conservation and degradation. It is suggested that steps need to be taken towards the development of broadly applicable benchmarks and indicators that bring together local and scientific knowledges across levels. Without this, popularised orthodoxies will continue to provide a basis for inappropriate land policy.     

Designating tree crops as forest: Land competition and livelihood effects mediate tree crops impact on natural forest cover in south China

The Chinese government applies the term ‘tree crops’ (jingjilin) to a bundle of tree species with uses other than timber production, defining this category as a component of national forest statistics. Tree crops may displace either farmland or forestland, and can be a promising livelihood option for smallholders. The overall impact of this particular policy on natural forest growth remained unanswered. In the general expansion trend of tree cover in southern China, tree crops could compete for land with natural forests, their cultivation may pose environmental trade-offs with natural forest cover. However, in a context of large labor flows from countryside to cities, tree crops could provide promising opportunities for dealing with on-farm labor shortages and generating income for disadvantaged populations remaining in rural communities, then promoting remaining natural forest quality through alternative livelihoods process. There is a knowledge gap to thoroughly investigate tree crops’ impact on natural forest change both conceptually and empirically, especially a mechanism verification of the alternative livelihood hypothesis. Thus, we construct a framework assessing land use competition and alternative livelihood effects together to assess overall impacts of tree crop cultivation on natural forests. Our dataset combines forest resource inventory data and provincial social-economic factors for a panel analysis of contributions to change in natural forest cover, density, and stock in China’s biodiversity-rich southern provinces. Results show tree crop cover is negatively associated with natural forest extent, but positive associated with change in natural forest density, while the relationship with change in natural forest stock is insignificant. Further tests of mechanisms support the hypothesis that tree crops benefit disadvantaged rural populations, providing an alternative livelihood. Defining tree crops as forest in China obscures important patterns, particularly a trade-off between tree crops and natural forest cover and a possible synergy with natural forest density mediated by alternative livelihood processes. Policy makers should enact specific policies to incentivize natural forest recovery in the southern collective forest zone and reconsider the appropriateness of defining tree crops as forest. Concentration and intensification of tree crop production on suitable lands may have the potential to benefit both forests and impoverished populations.     

Household-level effects of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program under price and policy shifts

This study examined how agricultural households involved in China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) could respond to expected changes in environmental and livestock policies and changing commodity prices. We calibrated a farm household model using 2009 survey data collected in northeast Gansu Province, China, and examined the responses of four different household groups. Household groups were distinguished based on the resources they possessed for either cropping, livestock husbandry or off-farm employment. We also calculated the opportunity cost of converting sloping land from grain crop production to perennial grass production and included the net value of the replacement crop in these calculations. Our model simulations indicated that subsistence-oriented households were most likely to participate in the SLCP, and that SLCP payment reductions could have large negative income effects for this group. Reductions in SLCP payments increased income inequality among households in the study area. Migration- and cropping-oriented households have fewer incentives to participate in the SLCP. With rising commodity prices, SLCP payments need to rise to avoid that subsistence-oriented households reconvert their land from perennial grasses to annual grain crops. Local government policies related to livestock production are being devised in Gansu as a method to lift incomes, and these policies could also have positive environmental benefits by increasing grass production on sloping land. The introduction of these livestock promotion policies had modest income effects but did not alter the area grown with grasses under the SLCP.     

Impacts of land leases in Oromia,Ethiopia: Changes in access to livelihood resources for local people

Large-scale land deals have attracted considerable attention for various reasons, including their implications for local livelihoods. While some view the phenomena as a development opportunity, encompassing improvement in the livelihoods of local people, others argue that it is an impoverishing scheme. Ethiopia ranks among the top in terms of the size of land leased out over the last decade. Land is a major resource of state control and investment in Ethiopia. As the foundation of their livelihoods and identity, it is simultaneously a vital resource for the local people. Highlighting the importance of land for local livelihoods and state-society relations and employing a political-ecological approach, this paper analyzes the outcomes of two land lease cases for the local people in Bakko Tibbe district of Oromia, Ethiopia. The findings show that the land leases induced a significant decline in local people’s access to land, resulting in a significant reduction in crop production and livestock husbandry. The land leases also dismantled longstanding land-based social relations in both production systems. Based on empirical evidence from specific localities and contextualizing the local livelihood dynamics within broader political-economic conditions, this study contributes to the ongoing debate on livelihood impacts of global land deals.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Farmer Initiatives and Livelihood Diversification: From the Collective to a Market Economy in Rural China

This paper explores how, despite relatively undifferentiated economic, cultural and land tenure conditions, some farmers in a rural area of Hebei Province, north-east China, have managed to devise innovative livelihood activities that provide them with better living standards than the majority of villagers. The research concludes that the dynamics of farmer innovations emerge from a variety of factors: the building of effective social networks and sources of information, 'enlightenment' deriving from small-group interactions, and the construction of trust relations, self-help and cooperation. These factors belong to the sphere of social resources rather than to those of natural, physical, human or financial assets. Hence it is social components that constitute the mobilizers of change in regard to farmers' livelihood development.     

中国土地征收政策:“社会补偿”还是“社会赔偿”

以社会公正为视阈,当前我国城市化建设中的土地征收,实施以"保障"为基点的"社会补偿"政策,既不能合理分配土地增值资源,实现社会资源"分配的正义",又不能切实保障被征收土地人民群众的切身利益,达到社会资源"持有的正义"。因此,我国土地征收社会公正化,应在社会主义社会公正观指导下,实施以"保护"为基点的"社会赔偿"政策,使得城市化建设中的土地征收既"化地"又"化人"。社会赔偿区别于国家赔偿、民事赔偿,是基于社会发展需要而对承担社会发展代价一方给予的符合社会公正的赔偿。     

内部需求、外部因素对农户宅基地退出的影响研究——基于马斯洛需求理论视角的审视

目的 通过马斯洛需求理论视角将影响农户的诸多因素分为内部和外部两个层面,厘清农户宅基地退出的影响因素,为指导农村宅基地有序退出,提高农村土地利用效率提供政策建议。方法 文章利用江西安义和湖北监利两个地区138份农户调研数据,运用Probit计量分析模型,对农户宅基地退出的影响因素和影响强度进行了研究。结果 （1）居住、养老、就业等事关当前农户退出宅基地后所面临的社会保障与生计的因素,表征农户的安全方面的需求,对农户宅基地退出产生了显著的影响;（2）发展机遇因素和政策互动因素表征了农户在退地过程中的社交和尊重方面的需求,也对宅基地退出产生了显著的影响;（3）社会保障与生计方面的需求的作用强度要明显高于社交和尊重方面的需求因素,产生的影响强度也相对较强。结论 （1）政府部门加强对保障和生计的重视,应该保证退地后经济补偿,退地后给予城镇购房补助政策的支持力度和农户退地后生活质量改善情况,维持农民的可持续生计水平。（2）注重政策宣传是否到位,政府关于宅基地退出优惠政策,以及安置就业难易程度的考虑。（3）在当前宅基地制度改革中各地财力不均的情况下,应优先注重农户退出购房补偿的货币安置和住房安置,做到政策有的放矢。     

The leakage and livelihood impacts of PES contracts: A targeting experiment in Malawi

Most evaluations of payments for environmental services programs focus on immediate environmental impacts, and do not measure the effects on socioeconomic outcomes or on other land use activities (leakage). Efficient allocation of land use contracts, through auctions for example, may help mitigate concerns about adverse livelihood or leakage effects. This study reports on a field experiment that varied the allocation of afforestation contracts to smallholder farmers in Malawi. Households were randomly assigned to participate in an auction or in a lottery for the contracts, which provided three years of payment based on tree survival outcomes. Households that did not receive a contract as a result of the lottery form a pure comparison group. The results show evidence for within-farm leakage for households that received a contract at random, in the form of additional land clearing. Randomly contracted households are also more likely to report household labor shortages. These effects are mitigated to some degree when contracts are assigned through an auction. Together, the results point to leakage and livelihood impacts from payments for environmental services that are often overlooked in standard evaluations, but which may be reduced through improvements in contract targeting.