Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds

This paper studies the impact of interest rate news surprises on Islamic and conventional stock and bond indices, using a dataset which covers interest rate announcements and forecasts, as well as stock and bond indices in three Islamic and eight non-Islamic countris. We find that interest rate surprises tend to have a smaller impact on the returns and volatility of Islamic than conventional bonds because Islamic bonds are structured to avoid explicit interest rates. However, interest rate surprises have about the same or bigger impact on the returns and volatility of Islamic relative to conventional stocks, despite the low amounts of cash and debt holdings of firms comprising Islamic stock indices.     

Are Islamic stock indexes exposed to systemic risk? Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR

The main objective of this paper is to assess the exposure of Islamic stock indexes to systemic tail events. We use Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and Delta CoVaR measures as developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011) and a sample of Islamic and conventional stock indexes, from various developed and emerging markets, during the period September 2005 to March 2015. The empirical results reveal that the systemic risk has a moderate adverse effect on Islamic indexes, with a lower level in Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC hereafter). The findings also show the Asian stock indexes can be considered as effective hedge assets, after the global financial crisis (GFC hereafter). Furthermore, the empirical reveal that portfolio including Islamic stock indexes performs better than a benchmark portfolio in turmoil periods. These findings have several implications in financial decisions including the strategy of stability and asset allocation.     

Volatility and correlation of Islamic and conventional indices during crises

We examine the correlation and volatility of Islamic indices and their conventional counterparts during the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis as well as the Covid-19 pandemic. We provide evidence that the volatility of Islamic indices is relatively lower than that of conventional peers during turmoil periods. Consistent with the decoupling hypothesis, our results indicate that the volatility of Islamic and the volatility of conventional indices tend to move in tandem in tranquil times but diverge in times of crises. Our results also indicate that the correlation between Islamic and conventional indices is a priced risk factor for Islamic index returns.     

Risk-adjusted profitability and stability of Islamic and conventional banks: Does revenue diversification matter?

Revenue diversification in banking offers opportunities and threats. Recent academic research shows that disadvantages may outweigh advantages, in terms of both volatility of profitability and bank riskiness. Literature on this topic in emerging countries and in the field of Islamic finance is limited: our aim is to empirically test if revenue diversity affects Islamic banks differently than conventional institutions. We analyze the impact of income diversification on profitability and firm-risk of banks in selected OIC countries, in the period 2007–2016, using a comprehensive dataset of 47 Islamic and 154 conventional banks, through diverse measures and econometric approaches. We find that diversification provides lower rewards for Islamic banks than conventional banks, with effects that are stronger for accounting-based measures rather than market-based metrics. Shares of non-interest income positively contribute to profitability regardless of the business model, whereas income diversification shows a not significant effect on the risk-adjusted profitability of Islamic banks. Moreover, we do not find any relationship between income diversification and stability for both conventional and Islamic banks.     

Islamic versus conventional banks in the GCC countries: A comparative study using classification techniques

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on Islamic finance by investigating the feature of Islamic and conventional banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period 2003–2010. We use parametric and non-parametric classification models (Linear discriminant analysis, Logistic regression, Tree of classification and Neural network) to examine whether financial ratios can be used to distinguish between Islamic and conventional banks. Univariate results show that Islamic banks are, on average, more profitable, more liquid, better capitalized, and have lower credit risk than conventional banks. We also find that Islamic banks are, on average, less involved in off-balance sheet activities and have more operating leverage than their conventional peers. Results from classification models show that the two types of banks may be differentiated in terms of credit and insolvency risk, operating leverage and off-balance sheet activities, but not in terms of profitability and liquidity. More interestingly, we find that the recent global financial crisis has a negative impact on the profitability for both Islamic and conventional banks, but time shifted. Finally, results show that Logit regression obtained slightly higher classification accuracies than other models.     

Is spin-off policy an effective way to improve performance of Islamic banks? Evidence from Indonesia

Indonesia has adopted a dual banking system in which both conventional and Islamic banks operate. Most of the sharia-based banks, however, are still operating Islamic windows within their conventional entity. To strengthen the role of Islamic banking in the intermediation system, the government issued Islamic Banking Law No. 21/2008 to encourage Islamic windows of conventional banks to become a legal entity separate from their parent company. Because some Islamic windows have spun off in this fashion, we can employ a difference-in-difference approach to examine the effect of such a spin-off on Islamic banks’ performance, efficiency, and risk. Our study covers all Islamic commercial banks (including Islamic windows of conventional banks) in Indonesia from 2008–2019. We find that the performance and efficiency of full-fledged Islamic banks are significantly lower compared with Islamic windows of conventional banks. Moreover, our results show that financing risk increases after the spin-off. The inferior performance of full-fledged Islamic banks persists for four years after the spin-off. We also find that a conversion strategy results in better outcomes, particularly for profitability and efficiency, than a pure spin-off strategy.     

On the role of Islamic and conventional banks in the monetary policy transmission in Malaysia: Do size and liquidity matter?

This paper empirically investigates the impact of monetary policy on the credit supply of Islamic versus conventional banks of Malaysia using an unbalanced panel dataset over the period 2005-2016. While estimating the effects of three alternative measures of monetary policy on banks' credit supply, we include several bank-specific and macroeconomic variables in the specification as control variables. We provide strong evidence on the existence of the credit channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Malaysia. Yet, we show that Islamic banks respond considerably less to changes in monetary policy instruments as compared to their conventional counterparts. We also find that the monetary policy measures affect small-sized banks and less-liquid banks more as compared to large-sized and more-liquid banks. Our findings suggest that for an effective monetary policy, there is a vital need to consider the nature of Islamic banking while devising any monetary policy instruments to manage credit supply in the economy.     

A Market Efficiency Comparison of Islamic and Non-Islamic Stock Indices

This article examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) and the random walk hypothesis (RWH) for nine conventional and nine Islamic stock indices: Asia-Pacific, Canadian, Developed Country, Emerging, European, Global, Japanese, UK, and United States. It investigates whether Islamic stock indices are more, less, or as efficient as their conventional counterparts. We test four sub-periods of bullish and bearish stock markets, together with the financial meltdown and its recovery, over the period 1997–2012. We use the Escanciano and Lobato’s (2009) automatic portmanteau test (AQ) and Deo’s (2000) test for the MDH. We also apply the automatic variance ratio test (AVR) developed by Choi (1999) and Kim (2009) for the RWH. Over the period from 1997 to 2012, we find that three conventional indices (Europe, Japan, and UK) are efficient, but that none of the Islamic indices are efficient in these markets. During the recent financial crisis, our results indicate slightly more efficiency for the Islamic indices than their conventional counterparts. Our study finds that overall the conventional indices are more efficient than their Islamic counterparts. Nevertheless, during periods of general downturns the Islamic indices have shown the same level of efficiency as their counterparts. Furthermore, it appears that during the last two sub-periods under study, the Islamic indices have moved toward efficiency, displaying the same level of efficiency as their counterparts.     

Return and volatility co-movement in commodity futures markets: the effects of liquidity risk

Commodity markets are a widely researched topic in the field of finance. In this paper, we investigate the co-movement of return and volatility measures in different commodity futures markets and how these measures are affected by liquidity risk. First, we find that commodity returns display co-movement and that liquidity risk plays a key role in shaping asset return patterns. Moreover, we show that the volatilities of commodity returns co-move, and we demonstrate the role of liquidity risk in this joint pattern. We also find that the commodity markets we investigated share a common volatility factor that determines their joint volatility co-movement. Because liquidity risk affects both commodity returns and volatility shocks, it might be interpreted as the common causal factor driving both measures simultaneously. Therefore, we affirm the view that liquidity shocks are firmly related to two residual risks originating from both market return and market volatility. Finally, we also show that liquidity spillovers can significantly drive cross-sectional correlation dynamics.     

Issues in Islamic Equities: A Literature Survey

This article reviews the current literature on Islamic equities. Our survey indicates that the bulk of articles is quantitative or empirical in nature, with a notable dearth of theoretical works. Among the common research themes explored by these articles are comparative performances of Islamic equities vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts, comparisons of Islamic portfolios with SRI funds, and empirically articulating portfolio diversification benefits associated with Islamic equities. In addition, numerous articles discuss idiosyncrasies of Shari’ah compliant stocks and portfolios under subthemes such as volatility, risk factors, and performance attributes. This survey also includes articles addressing efficiency perspectives, calendar anomalies, and issues in Shari’ah stock screening norms. We summarize general findings and offer suggestions for future research. Literature surveys on Islamic equities are few and far between, and this article, to date, represented the most recent and comprehensive attempt at that.     

The governance,risk-taking,and performance of Islamic banks

We examine whether the difference in governance structures influences the risk taking and performance of Islamic banks compared to conventional banks. Using a sample of 52 Islamic banks and 104 conventional banks in 14 countries for the period from 2005 to 2013, we conclude that the governance structure in Islamic banks plays a crucial role in risk taking as well as financial performance that is distinct from conventional banks. Particularly, we show that the governance structure in Islamic banks allows them to take higher risks and achieve better performance because of product complexities and transaction mechanisms. However, Islamic banks maintain a higher capitalization compared to conventional banks. These results support the research on Islamic investment and risk taking. Our results add a new dimension to the governance research that could be a valuable source of knowledge for policy makers and regulators in the financial services sector.     

The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional banks

The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus is one of the more debated issues in the banking literature. However, while there is ample evidence concerning the relationship between competition and stability/fragility in different countries and regions, no prior study investigates this in the context of Islamic and conventional banks. We do this using data on both types of banks drawn from 16 developing economies over the period 2000–12. We measure the lack of competition using the Lerner index, and stability using both accounting-based measures, comprising the Z-score and the nonperforming loan ratio, and market-based measures, including Merton's distance to default. We employ panel vector autoregression and two-stage quantile regression to estimate the relationship. Our results lend support to the competition–fragility hypothesis in both Islamic and conventional banks. We also find the magnitude of the market power effect on stability is greater for conventional banks than Islamic banks. Lastly, banks in the median quantile of stability have a greater ability to reduce credit risk through gaining market power than banks in the lower and upper quantiles.     

Banking efficiency in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: A comparative study

We measure cost and profit efficiencies of banks operating in six GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) using heteroskedastic stochastic frontier (HSF) models. Our results show that measures of cost and profit efficiencies of banks vary widely across the six gulf countries over the same period. We examine whether cost and profit efficiencies of Islamic banks are significantly different from that of conventional banks. After allowing for bank risk, asset quality, environmental influences such as the level of interest rate, and country effect, we find that cost and profit efficiencies of Islamic banks are similar to that of conventional banks. Our results suggest that the country-specific variables have significant impact on cost and profit efficiencies of banks operating in GCC countries. Our findings indicate that cost and profit efficiencies of Islamic banks are more volatile than that of conventional banks.     

Dynamic correlations and volatility linkages between stocks and sukuk: Evidence from international markets

An understanding of volatility and co-movements in financial markets is important for portfolio allocation and risk management practices. The current financial crisis caused a shrinkage in values of most assets, an increased volatility and a threat to the survival of several institutional investors. Managing risks and returns within the classic portfolio theory, when correlations across securities soar, is increasingly challenging. In this paper, we investigate the volatility behavior and the co-movements between sukuk and international stock indexes. Symmetric multivariate GARCH models with dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) were estimated under Student-t distribution. We provide evidence of high correlations between sukuk and US and EU stock markets, without finding the well-known flight to quality behavior affecting Islamic bonds. We also show that volatility linkages between sukuk and regional market indexes are higher during financial crisis. We argue that investors could obtain diversification benefits including sukuk in a well-diversified equity portfolio, given their lower volatility compared to equity. But higher volatility linkages and dynamic correlations during financial crises show that they are hybrid instruments between bonds and equity. Our findings are relevant for institutional investors and asset managers that include Islamic bonds in a diversified portfolio.     

Risk transmission between Islamic and conventional stock markets: A return and volatility spillover analysis

This paper contributes to the current debate on the empirical validity of the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic stock market from its mainstream counterparts by examining return and volatility spillovers across the global Islamic stock market, three main conventional national stock markets (the US, the UK and Japan) and a number of influential macroeconomic and financial variables over the period from July 1996 to June 2016. To that end, the VAR-based spillover index approach based on the generalized VAR framework developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) is applied. The empirical analysis shows strong interactions in return and volatility among the global Islamic stock market, the conventional stock markets and the set of major risk factors considered. This finding means that the Islamic equity universe does not constitute a viable alternative for investors who wish to hedge their investments against the vagaries of stock markets, but it is exposed to the same global factors and risks hitting the conventional financial system. Therefore, this evidence leads to the rejection of the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic stock market from conventional stock markets, which has significant implications for faith-based investors and policy makers in terms of portfolio diversification, hedging strategies and contagion risk.     

Estimating the performance attributes of Australian multi-sector managed funds within a dynamic Kalman filter framework

This paper examines the impact of Kalman filtering as a technique for modeling the risk levels of managed funds. Using a sample of Australian Multi-sector trusts we examine selectivity and market timing performance using conventional performance models alongside Kalman filter models that allow beta to vary via a random walk. Further, we consider the stability and asymmetry of these performance measures together with a measure of volatility timing arising from a cubic model of fund performance. We find that the positive selectivity (negative market timing) that stems from the conventional models is not present with the Kalman filter model. The Kalman filter model tends to show neutral performance for both. However, both models confirm a strong tendency toward negative volatility timing.     

Heterogeneous market structure and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems

This paper investigates how banking system stability is affected when we combine Islamic and conventional finance under the same roof. We compare systemic resilience of three types of banks in six GCC member countries with dual banking systems: fully-fledged Islamic banks (IB), purely conventional banks (CB) and conventional banks with Islamic windows (CBw). We employ market-based systemic risk measures such as MES, SRISK and CoVaR to identify which sector is more vulnerable to a systemic event. We also compute weighted average GES to determine which sector is most synchronised with the market. Moreover, we use graphical network models to determine the most interconnected banking sector that can more easily spread a systemic shock to the whole system. Using a sample of observations on 79 publicly traded banks operating over the 2005–2014 period, we find that CBw is the least resilient sector to a systemic event, it has the highest synchronicity with the market, and it is the most interconnected banking sector during crisis times.     

Firm valuations and board compensation: Evidence from alternative banking models

This study examines whether the board of directors' compensation schemes affect stock market valuations for banks in a dual banking system (Islamic and conventional banks). We employ an international sample of 11 countries for the period 2010–2015. Our results show that for the full sample (i.e. irrespective of the bank type), board of directors' compensation has a significant and positive impact on stock market valuations. For different bank types, we find that the positive effect of the board of directors' compensation on market valuations holds only for conventional banks, with insignificant evidence for their Islamic counterparts. We, also, examine the impact of Shari'ah supervisory board's compensation on Islamic banks value. Our results show that investors positively perceived and priced information related to this boards' compensation.     

Mergers &; Acquisitions,Diversification and Performance in the U.S. Property-Liability Insurance Industry

This paper examines the relationship between mergers & acquisitions (M & As), diversification and financial performance in the U.S. property-liability insurance industry over the period 1989–2004. The risk-adjusted return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), Z-score and total risk measured by earnings volatility are considered as a relevant indicator of performance. We find that acquirers’ financial performance decreases and earnings volatility increases during the gestation period after the M & As perhaps due to increased frictional costs associated with post-merger integration and agency problems. We find that more focused insurers outperform the product-diversified insurers, implying that the costs of diversification outweigh the benefits. These findings are robust to alternative risk and diversification measures. We also find that marginal increases in commercial line share are associated with higher risk-adjusted profits, but these gains are offset by the extra costs from product diversity when its initial share is low. For insurers initially concentrated in commercial line, a marginal increase in commercial line share is related to higher performance due to positive effects of both direct exposure and indirect focus.     

Hyperbolic distance function,technical efficiency and stability to shocks: A comparison between Islamic banks and conventional banks in MENA region

In this paper, we compare banking performance and resiliency between Islamic banks and conventional banks in MENA region over the period 2002–2014. Stochastic hyperbolic and radial output distance functions are employed to evaluate banking performances. Furthermore, hyperbolic distance function methodology is extended to evaluate bank's business risk through simulations. Historical extreme observed situations in terms of profit loss from the industry are used in order to simulate their impact on the overall profit distribution within the industry. More precisely, we compare the observed profit and the simulated one followed by an abrupt fall in bank lending and non-lending activities. Results find evidence of technical efficiency differences with bank type, some evidence with bank size. It is found that conventional banks are much more vulnerable to an important drop on their lending activities than non-lending activities, while Islamic banks are equally vulnerable to any drop of the activity. Furthermore, Islamic banks are found to be less vulnerable than their counterparts when they are exposed to shocks on their lending activities. Very large banks are much more resilient than small banks whatever is the bank stream. It is also found that bank vulnerability is more important when the banks are not able to adjust their costs in the short run, and increases with the exposure to higher shocks in magnitude.