演化理论视角下现代经济增长理论的批判与重建

本文在演化经济学的视角下,建设性地批判现代经济增长理论,试图建立一个新现代经济增长理论的初步基准分析框架,在此基础上比较了新现代增长理论与现代经济增长理论,并提出进一步研究的方向.     

Anticipating Nelson and Winter: Jack Downie's theory of evolutionary economic change

An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change , by Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter continues to have great influence on evolutionary economic thought. While their modeling techniques and the breadth of their vision for evolutionary theorising must be seen as seminal and effective innovation in economic theory, they were not the first inventors of such a theory. Close examination reveals that much of the economic theory was anticipated by Jack Downie whose book, The Competitive Process, was published in 1958. The extent of anticipation is remarkable, with not merely the two elements of population ecology, selection and mutation, but the way in which they are theorised to work being replicated by Nelson and Winter.     

The theory of the labor-managed firm from the membership's perspective with implications for marshallian industry supply

The partial-equilibrium literature on labor-managed (L-M) firms argues that the property-rights structure inhibits economic efficiency and induces perverse responses to price parameters in the short run. But recent general-equilibrium literature demonstrates equivalence of equilibria between L-M and capitalist market economies with the relevant welfare results therefore applying to the L-M economy. Once the L-M firm's maximand is modified to incorporate members' property rights, the short-run industry supply curves of the two economics, under quasi-market conditions consistent with recent Yugoslav reforms, are seen to be equivalent. Hence, the property-rights structure in the L-M economy is compatible with efficiency and normal short-run price responses.     

从美国市场看我国产品的国际竞争力

近年来国内对我国出口商品及我国产业国际竞争力有了较为深入的讨论,但论者多以我国的对外贸易统计数据作为实证研究的基础,不足之处是无法给出一个清晰明确的与其他主要贸易国在某一市场上的横向历史比较图像。同时,由于我国对某一特定市场的出口贸易统计数据不包括转口贸易,因此也有可能扭曲对我国产品在某一出口市场竞争态势的详细分析。美国的进口市场一直是世界贸易及我国出口最重要的市场。由于其深度和广度,各国各地区出口产品在该市场上的份额及其变动,可以作为一个衡量这些国家出口商品全球竞争力的近似指标。     

从科技投入与产出看我国科技发展的绩效

通过对我国科技投入、产出的现状分析与国际比较,剖析了影响我国科技发展绩效的主要原因,并进一步提出提高我国科技发展绩效的对策。     

Demand for ISO 14001 adoption in the global supply chain: An empirical analysis focusing on environmentally conscious markets

This paper analyzes the environmental preferences and pressures of customers in environmentally conscious markets influencing the number of adoptions of ISO 14001—the international standard certified by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) concerning an Environmental Management System (EMS)—in a country. Customers in different countries have different priorities and ideas with regard to the environment and its management, and therefore it is possible that environmental preferences and pressures of customers in environmentally conscious markets are greater, although many earlier studies suggest that foreign customers generally form a significant stakeholder group encouraging the adoption of ISO 14001. A random-effects Tobit estimation using a sample of 155 countries over eight years supports the view that the environmental preferences and pressures of customers in environmentally conscious markets (including Finland, Japan, Germany and Denmark) are more likely to encourage domestic along with foreign suppliers to adopt ISO 14001. As it is easier for firms in environmentally conscious markets to adopt ISO 14001 because of their better economic performance, they have already adopted certification and consequently require their domestic and foreign suppliers to do likewise in the global supply chain. For this reason, suppliers wishing to access environmentally conscious markets can obtain an advantage with ISO 14001 certification.     

我国货币供给规模与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于Enger-Granger协整理论分析

金融是现代经济的核心,在经济增长中的促进作用日趋明显。货币供给量的变动是政府进行宏观调控的主要手段。在金融危机的背景下,研究货币供给变动对经济增长的作用尤为重要。通过Engle-Granger两步法和误差修正模型（ECM）验证了货币供给量、年末贷款与GDP之间存在长期和短期波动关系,并证明其长期的作用更为明显。这对分析和了解我国宏观经济政策具有深远的意义。     

Demand shocks,supply shocks and the cyclicality of real wages

The behaviour of real wages over the business cycle has received increasiing attention in recent years. The cyclicality of real wages constitues an important aspect of recent models of the business cycle. However,empirical studies undertaken to determine whether real wages are procyclical or countercyclical have reported conflicting findings. In thiis paper we use vector-autoregressions to analyse the cyclicality of real wages. We find that the source of the disturbance plays a decisive role in the cyclical behaviour of real wages. In particular, we demonstrate that a supply shock generates procyclical real wages,whereas a demand shock yields countercyclicality.     

Schumpeter,Keynes and the theory of economic evolution

The contribution deals with a nonlinear dynamic macro-economic model which is used for simulation runs. Conditions and model specifications allowing for global stability are investigated and tested. Based on this some well-known facts as Schumpeterian long-wave phenomena, Keynesian unemployment, productivity growth effects are simulated. Moreover specifying an instrumental variable for state interventions policy issues are also discussed. With this runs it is shown that minor changes of parameters may provide totally different outcomes and different economic developments.     

Destruction and settlement norms as determinants of conflict: An evolutionary perspective

This paper studies conflict in a simple bargaining framework using an evolutionary game-theoretic approach. Our findings suggest that a player does not always regard the winning probability as an acceptable settlement rule. He accepts a division according to winning probability when the destruction caused to him in conflict is more than a threshold, which in turn depends on cost of conflict to the opponent and the size of the population. Further, our analysis shows that the norms with positive weight to disagreement payoff are effective against conflict, and incentivize peace. Contrary to the findings of extant studies carried out in finite population evolutionary game setting, the settlement possibility set is identical under both ESS and Nash equilibrium in our model with settlement norms.     

The law of supply in games, markets and matching models

Summary In large games with transferable utility, core payoffs satisfy a comparative statics property: If the proportion of one type of player increases, then the core payoff to that type of player decreases (does not increase). Markets with transferable utility satisfy a similar property: if the aggregate supply of a commodity increases, its value relative to the value of all commodities decreases. In market games, if one type of agent becomes more plentiful, his competitive payoff falls, and its decrease is engineered by a decrease in the relative value of his endowment.We thank Bob Anderson, Joe Farrell, Steve Goldman, Chris Shannon, seminar participants of the Mathematical Economics Seminar at Berkeley (August 1994), the University of Pittsburg (November 1994), Tel Aviv University and the Institute on Rationality at the Hebrew University (January 1995), and especially Vince Crawford for useful discussion.     

An evolutionary game theory approach to the dynamics of the labour market: A formal and informal perspective

A stylized fact of the labour market in developing countries is that it is highly segmented in informality. One of the main factors that induce workers and firms into informality is an excessive regulatory system that makes formal economy little attractive. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of workers and firms’ entrance and withdrawal of the formal and informal economy, assessing the impact of taxes by using an evolutionary game theory approach in which economic agents decide for one these markets according to the expected pay-off. Moreover, the optimal relation between regulatory and enforcement action by the government is evaluated.     

Demand uncertainty and the value of supply opportunities

The study considers the optimal timing of production decisions under demand uncertainty. In accordance with the modern theory of irreversible investment, the problem is modelled as one of optimal stopping. By taking an approach which is independent of dynamic programming and the smooth-fit principle, we derive explicitly both the value of the opportunity and the optimal-demand threshold. We prove that the optimal-demand threshold can be attained at a point where the smooth-fit principle is not valid. We also carry out the comparative static analysis of the optimal variables and derive conditions under which production incentives are held constant. A consequence of this analysis is that along the iso-incentive curve inflationary policy must be counteracted with strict monetary policy.     

Threshold effect of economic openness on bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the non-linear effects of two aspects of economic openness, namely, trade openness and financial openness, on banking system stability. We use a panel of 42 emerging markets from 2000 to 2014 to test whether bank risk-taking behaviour varies with the level of openness. We find that a higher degree of trade openness promotes bank stability linearly. Conversely, the non-linear effect of financial openness on bank risk-taking is evident. When the financial system is not sufficiently open, the impact of financial openness on bank stability is insignificant. However, as the domestic financial market becomes more open, financial openness can help discipline the behaviour of banks, making them more stable. We also find evidence that these effects are transmitted through the market discipline channel. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening the domestic regulatory framework and transparency as the economy becomes more integrated.     

Determining demand, supply, and pricing for emerging markets based on disruptive process technologies

A model for forecasting the likely market size and demand for an early-stage emerging process technology is considered. This method takes into account markets, supply, demand, supply/demand gap, pricing, implications to government policy, corporate strategy, and value of intellectual property. For the purpose of illustration, forecasting of microsystems is considered.     

Labor supply of elderly people,fertility, and economic development

Increases in life expectancy and the fertility rate have been observed as per-capita income increases in economically developed countries with high per-capita income. We explain these observations using a synthetic economic model with endogenous lifetime, retirement, and human capital accumulation. In contrast to the result obtained by assuming an institutionally fixed and compulsory retirement, a longer life expectancy attributable to rises in per-capita income can induce elderly people to leave the labor market later, thereby enabling them to increase consumption of goods as well as “children” when young. Consequently, higher per-capita income can be associated with higher fertility.