“免疫系统论”视角下的碳审计模式构建

经济的快速发展,使全球环境问题日益严重,尤其是全球气候变暖已经严重威胁到人类社会的可持续发展,并成为世界性的政治、经济、法律和技术问题。碳审计作为现代审计中有效应对全球变暖等环境问题的新举措,是一种全新的环境规制工具。论文将从“国家审计免疫系统论”的视角下,结合目前国内外碳审计的研究现状,探索分析适合我国国情的碳审计模式,以期发挥碳审计在经济社会环境的免疫作用。     

The new ecological paradigm and responses to climate change in China

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a Chinese-Mandarin version of the revised new ecological paradigm (NEP-R) scale. In a sample of 515 Mandarin-speaking Chinese nationals, we first assessed the factor structure and internal consistency of the NEP-R and assessed its validity by examining associations with global warming risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Respondents completed the NEP-R scale, together with measures of risk perception and mitigation behavior. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a two-factor solution, reflecting ecocentric and anthropocentric worldviews, best fit the data. Multi-group path analysis revealed that respondents with stronger ecocentric and weaker anthropocentric worldviews perceived more risks associated with global warming. In turn, respondents who perceived more risks reported engaging in more global warming mitigation behaviors. But importantly, the path between risk perceptions and behavior was significantly stronger for highly educated respondents than for less educated respondents, suggesting that education may represent an important strategy for bridging the gap between perceived risks about global warming and action.     

Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Understanding perceptions of local weather and their effects on risk perceptions of global warming

I use one nationally representative sample from CBS News/New York Times Poll on Environment (2007), supplemented with monthly temperature and precipitation data from the United States Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center, to examine how different weather measures and individuals’ socio-demographic background, political predisposition, and beliefs about global warming affect the perception of local weather. Beliefs about global warming are found to play a dominant role in determining the perception of local weather. Specifically, people who view that global warming is causing an immediate impact, is serious, and needs to be a priority are much more likely to perceive a strange pattern of weather in the recent past. This finding conforms to motivated reasoning which refers to the tendency to interpret evidence to confirm the preexisting beliefs and predisposition. Among all the weather measures, the total number of extreme weather events in the past three years appears to be the only significant indicator of perceived weather. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual. I further examine how actual weather and perceived weather together affect perceptions of global warming. The results illustrate that the perception of local weather has stronger explanatory power than actual weather. People who perceive the strange weather patterns are much more likely than others to see the immediate impacts and priority of global warming. Future studies are needed to investigate the dynamic relationship between perceptions of global warming and perceptions of weather and climate. In addition, more studies are needed to further examine how the public forms their opinions toward various specific types of the local weather and climate.     

Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach

The countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol have pledged to limit global warming by reducing the demand for fossil fuels. But what about supply? If suppliers do not react, demand reductions by a subset of countries are ineffective. They simply depress the world price of carbon and induce the environmental sinners to consume what the Kyoto countries have economized on. Even worse, if suppliers feel threatened by a gradual greening of economic policies in the Kyoto countries that would damage their future prices; they will extract their stocks more rapidly, thus accelerating global warming. The paper discusses the remaining policy options against global warming from an intertemporal supply-side perspective.     

Risk perceptions,moral attitudes,and anticipated guilt in US consumers’ climate change behavioral intentions

Various reports and research have documented the risks of global warming on humans and the non-human environment. A growing amount of media coverage positions the fight against global warming as a moral issue. However, additional research needs to be conducted regarding whether individuals’ risk perceptions are related to their moral attitudes and whether their moral attitudes toward global warming are associated with their behavioral intentions to alleviate global warming. Based on a cross-sectional survey (N = 572) and structural equation modeling analysis, the present investigation situated moral attitudes within a larger theoretical framework (i.e. the theory of planned behavior). Results found that the American public’s moral attitudes were predicted by subjective norms and risk to others and the environment, but not risk to themselves. Moral attitudes, in turn, predicted anticipated guilt. Collectively, moral attitudes, self-efficacy, anticipated guilt, and consideration of future consequences predicted one’s intentions to engage in behaviors to alleviate global warming. Both theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Agenda for a new monetary reform

The thrust of this article is that once more the time has come for a broad debate on domestic and international monetary order and on the role and the rules governing the functioning of financial markets in the modern market economy. We have to define an agenda and seek a consensus for a new monetary reform that will take into account both the positive and negative lessons learned from more than twenty years of experience with liberalization, deregulation and privatization in the financial sector, with flexible exchange rates and international monetary instability. In today's world economy there is an especially dangerous contrast between, on the one hand virtually total globalization of financial markets, and the fixation of monetary policy on narrow national objectives on the other hand. The article lists eight major items that ought to be considered in this debate: (1) the adoption of common rules necessary in a global market economy, (2) the need to return to a true international monetary order, (3) redefining and strengthening the role of central banks, (4) examining the dangers of a primarily short-term finance driven globalization, (5) extending the scope of the concept of price instability beyond the domestic price index, (6) dealing with the problem of artificial risk creation in financial markets and establish a more equitable distribution of the costs of risks, (7) reconsider the current distribution between earning on financial assets and other income and counteract the deflationary bias in the current system, (8) redefine monetary and financial order that is compatible with modern information technologies, rather than lagging behind the information revolution. The article does not offer set solutions for all these issues. Its conclusion is, however, that without such a debate and a consensus on a balanced new approach, there is a real threat of a backlash, the threat of losing the advantages of liberalization and globalization and of a return to increased monetary and economic nationalism and to excessive government intervention and control.     

World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race

This paper examines the foundation for two scenarios of the future depicting how human civilization might destroy itself and possibly bring about the extinction of the human race in the process. The scenarios are based upon the two human-generated “fires” deeply ingrained within industrial civilization: (1) the nuclear “fire” of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and their automated “launch on warning” alert systems and (2) the slow burning “fire” of global warming and runaway climate change. This paper also examines obstacles that are currently preventing the necessary first steps towards solving these problems.     

Megapatterns of global settlement: Typology and drivers in a warming world

Changes in settlement structures of the world can be described as megapatterns that represent dynamic spatial trends. This paper defines and describes three types of such megapatterns that will be of major influence in shaping global settlement and activity structures in the future, given a warming climate: (1) megapatterns driven by global warming; (2) megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3) megapatterns driven by important spatial positions. The megapatterns are ordered into a typology and their individual and collective impacts are described.The major findings of this paper are: because of global warming many of the central areas of the globe will experience heat, water and pollution problems that will induce people and activities to be moved to cooler, wetter areas. As high, cool terrains, as well as the virgin Sub-Polar Regions—mostly located in Siberia, Northern Canada, Northern Scandinavia, Greenland, Alaska, Southern Argentina, and Southern Chile—start to get warmer, it will become possible to relocate water-craving industries, like agriculture and resource extraction. This will not necessarily lead to a large population shift, since relatively few workers are needed for most such operations.     

低碳经济、农户行为与政府农地管理

在全球气候变暖的背景下,经济社会发展方式向低碳模式转变已成全球共识。农地利用在碳循环中的作用决定了一国需要科学合理的农地利用管理政策。在我国目前经济社会演化变动阶段,农户家庭依然是农地利用主体,收入最大化条件下的农户家庭的农地利用行为并不一定符合低碳经济的发展要求。尊重碳循环和市场经济规律,加大研究力度,制定并执行科学合理的国土空间主体功能区规划,控制农用地转用规模,通过财政补贴等手段引导农户家庭合理利用农地,保持农地各种利用类型比例适当,持续加大农地经营投入,对我国解决碳减排和经济社会发展之间的矛盾、实现低碳经济发展模式转变具有重要意义。     

Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?

Because most developing countries depend heavily on agriculture,the effects of global warming on productive croplands are likelyto threaten both the welfare of the population and the economicdevelopment of the countries. Tropical regions in the developingworld are particularly vulnerable to potential damage from environmentalchanges because the poor soils that cover large areas of theseregions already have made much of the land unusable for agriculture. Although agronomic simulation models predict that higher temperatureswill reduce grain yields as the cool wheat-growing areas getwarmer, they have not examined the possibility that farmerswill adapt by making production decisions that are in theirown best interests. A recent set of models examines cross-sectionalevidence from India and Brazil and finds that even though theagricultural sector is sensitive to climate, individual farmersdo take local climates into account, and their ability to doso will help mitigate the impacts of global warming.      

世界性碳减排合作的出路

＂碳排放＂已成为人类生存环境的最大威胁。而＂碳排放＂具有的外部性特征,又使得＂碳减排＂变成一种博弈。造成这种局面的原因,首先是由于各国经济发展的差距,以及由此产生的环境效用不同;其次是因为各国都想在＂碳排放＂博弈中得到更多的利益。因此,要实现在世界各国间达成一致的＂碳减排＂行动目标,必须缩小世界各国发展的差距和形成更有权威的全球性治理结构;发达国家应在开放市场、转移技术、增加援助等方面表现得更为积极。     

Forecasting our environmental future

This series now comes to an appropriate end with the most menacing set of question marks ever raised about the future of the human race. During the past two decades—from the inauguration of the Club of Rome in 1967 to Margaret Thatcher's famous ‘green’ speech to the Royal Society in 1988—an ever growing volume of research has erased the old-time notion that we live out our lives in a steady-state world. As the bad news has spread—environmental pollution, acid rain, the warming of the oceans—a consensus of anxieties has found expression in a global fear for the future. Is there anyone who would gainsay the possibility that, as Mrs Thatcher put it, ‘with all these enormous changes—population, agriculture, use of fossil fuels—concentrated into such a short period of time, we have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with the system of the planet itself’? The scale of these changes and the measure of the dangers they bring—these provide the range of cause and effect in Dr Woodell's reflections on the great harm we have done to the human environment. This is the one occasion when an editor can truly say: Read on for the survival of our species.     

链网互动与区域产业网络的优化

文章在讨论产业网络及其优化内涵的基础上,分析了区域产业网络优化的两种基本模式,即构建产业创新网络和嵌入全球价值链,由于二者分别存在"网络陷阱"和"全球价值链陷阱",通过构建链网互动机制来优化区域产业网络是更为可行的思路,文中构建了一个链网互动机制的概念框架,并结合我国实际提出了促进区域产业网络优化的若干政策建议.     

Global Diversification, Industrial Diversification, and Firm Value

Using a sample of 44,288 firm–years between 1984 and 1997, we document an increase in the extent of global diversification over time. This trend does not reflect a substitution of global for industrial diversification. We also find that global diversification results in average valuation discounts of approximately the same magnitude as those for industrial diversification. Analysis of the changes in excess value associated with changes in diversification reveals that increases in global diversification reduce excess value, while reductions in global diversification increase excess value. These findings support the view that the costs of global diversification outweigh the benefits.     

The two limits debates: “Limits to Growth” and climate change

In this article we compare the current debate about global warming with the earlier discourse of Limits to Growth (LtG) of the 1970s. We are especially interested in the similarities of and differences between the two cases and therefore compare the policy challenges and lessons to be drawn. While the two debates differ on important issues, they share a technocratic orientation to public policy, and susceptibility to similar pitfalls. In both debates alarming scenarios about future catastrophes play an important role. We suggest that climate change policy discourse needs to focus more closely on the social, economic, and political dimensions of climate change, as opposed to its excessive emphasis on emission reduction targets. We also argue that an excessive faith in the market mechanisms to supply global warming mitigation technologies is problematic. In this respect, we provide a reality check regarding the political implications of emission targets and timetables and suggest how policy issues can be moved forward.     

Alternative funding: Looking beyond the nation-state

The challenge for the UN and for all publicly funded institutions that distribute surpluses for international needs is nothing less than to devise new global mechanisms for the collection and distribution of the surplus generated in a global economy. A minimalist interpretation of when individual governments can and cannot provide public goods has exercised strong influences on perceptions as to what is appropriate at international levels and with regard to the financing of international institutions. There is a strong consensus on an important range of international social goods. Three kinds of financing alternatives should be accorded priority in policy research—charges for the use of the global commons, monetary measures, and international taxation.     

产业政策促进全球价值链升级的有效性研究——基于出口加工区的准自然实验

本文利用我国出口加工区(EPZs)成立之初所实施的“主导产业”扶持政策构造“准自然实验”,实证检验了该政策对于企业全球价值链(GVC)升级的效果并进一步探讨政府实施产业政策的有效性,发现:(1)EPZs的“主导产业”政策对我国出口企业GVC升级存在负向影响,而这种负向影响在多重稳健性检验下均成立;(2)异质企业视角下考察产业政策对GVC升级的影响发现在国有资本份额较大的企业和重工业企业中产业政策对GVC升级的负向影响尤为明显;(3)对EPZs的“主导产业”政策发挥作用的前提进行检验,发现在比较优势较强的行业,产业政策对GVC升级的负向影响不明显甚至存在正向影响;同时,在错配程度较低的行业负向影响也不明显。由此本文认为,政府在推动GVC升级方面应当“有所作为”,但也不能“无所限制”,即产业政策要针对比较优势“精准定位”,但也应当以不造成资源严重错配为前提。     

Warming of the climate

Predicting the weather more than a few days ahead is a risky business, so how can we possibly have any idea of future climate? Of course we cannot predict future climate in any detail, but many scientists believe that the large-scale, global average climate of the future can be determined. The indications are for warming.     

关于我国商业银行参与碳金融市场的思考

全球气候变嗳问题日益严峻使节能减排成为全球经济的热点之一,由此衍生的碳金融问题成为理论与实务界讨论的焦点。我国碳减排资源丰富,发展碳金融后发优势明显,但当前尚面临被动接受国际交易规则、定价能力不足等劣势。我国商业银行应充分发挥自身在金融市场领域的优势,借鉴国际同业经验,加快开发相关金融衍生产品,提高风险识别、计量能力,加强金融支持力度,促进国内碳金融市场的建立健全。     

国际货币发行权责与全球经济“双失衡”的历史与逻辑

当前的全球经济失衡起源于货币虚拟化而引起的国际货币与非国际货币的区分。这为国际货币发行国大行国际货币发行的权利、而很少承担其应有的责任提供了条件,是造成全球经济失衡的重要原因之一,其实质是虚拟经济与实体经济的失衡。长时间的失衡将加剧国际货币体系的动荡和全球金融市场的动荡,严重威胁着世界经济的稳定和发展。因此,必须从国际货币体系本身,以及虚拟经济与实体经济关系的角度加以纠正。